Today I start my annual ritual of picking the winners and losers in each division in baseball. Some people like to call them predictions, others prognostications. In truth, it’s probably accurate to call the whole exercise a waste of time. Even so, here we go with the AL East.
In case you weren’t paying attention, the Yankees won the AL East and the World Series last year. They are at least as good this year as they were last year, and the other teams in the AL East haven’t improved much, if at all. I expect the Yankees to be the team to beat in the AL East once again in 2010.
What don’t the Yankees have? They can score runs in bunches, they have terrific starting pitching, and their defense, while not spectacular, is good. Could their bullpen be their achilles heel? That’s what some people thought last year, but that didn’t seem to slow them down.
The Yankees will get their stiffest competition from the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox are following a little different strategy this year. Rather than being an offensive powerhouse, the Red Sox are counting on their pitching and defense to win them games. Don’t misunderstand, they’ll still score runs, but the addition of John Lackey and Mike Cameron indicate that they’ll be stressing pitching and defense. I expect them to finish second in the AL East and will make the playoffs as the AL Wildcard.
Boston took the strong starting pitching staff they had in 2009 and made it even better for 2010. With a starting five of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield (not to mention Clay Buchholz), the Red Sox will have a starting five as good as any in baseball.
Look for Tampa Bay to finish third in the AL East. They are a good team, but just don’t have the horses needed to keep up with the Yankees or Red Sox. If either team stumbles (especially the Red Sox), the Rays could find themselves contending for the Wildcard. I wouldn’t bet on that, but stranger things have happened.
With young players like Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist, the Rays have a nucleus of players to build around (assuming Crawford sticks around next year). The Rays have built themselves a terrific team. It’s just too bad for them that they are in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. They would likely be the favorite in almost every other division in baseball.
Now it is time for me to make the same joke I make every year. Are you ready for it? Here goes:
The only way the Baltimore Orioles will finish in first place in the AL East is if they rank the teams alphabetically. Oh, that joke never gets old (or maybe it does).
The Orioles are a team that appears to be improving. Compared to the teams the Orioles have had over the past few seasons, they should be better. But compared to the other teams in the AL East, the Orioles will not be very good. Finishing ahead of Toronto will provide a bit of a moral victory, but that’s about all they can hope for.
The thing about the Orioles is that you know they’re not going to break the bank in order to compete for the AL East. They have a couple of budding stars in Nick Markakis and Matt Weiters, but they need more than that. Kevin Millwood should help their pitching, but Baltimore is the poster child for a team that wants to look like they’re trying, but know they are not going to be overly competitive.
Bringing up the rear will be the Toronto Blue Jays. At the moment, the team looks to be in disarray. I think they have gone into rebuild mode, but their GM will occasionally say something that makes you think that he thinks they have a chance to compete this year. They don’t, but that’s what makes the Blue Jays appear a bit confused.
Who do the Blue Jays have in their lineup to get excited about? Aaron Hill? Maybe. He had a good year last year, but many people feel that was a fluke. Vernon Wells? The big news surrounding Wells in that he has the worst contract in all of baseball. That’s probably not a distinction any player would want. Can you name any of the Blue Jays starting pitchers? No? Me neither.
The AL East seems to be more cut and dried to me that the other divisions. Anything can happen, but the Yankees and Red Sox seem to be such clear favorites this year, something pretty spectacular would have to happen to jostle the final standings.
So, I’m predicting the AL East will finish the 2010 season like this:
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
Next post, I’ll take a look at the AL Central.
