Are the Cubs going to win the NL Central?  Let’s start from the premise that anything is possible.  With that said, let’s take a look at the NL Central.

Chicago Cubs — In the interest of full disclosure, I need to say from the start that I am a Cubs fan and an optimist.  Keep that in mind as you read this prediction.

I believe the Cubs are going to be better in 2010 than they were in 2009.  Okay, I’m not really going out on a limb here, but I do expect players like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto to have much better years than they had in 2009.  I also expect Carlos Zambrano to have an exceptional year.  Is that just blind optimism?  Maybe, but Soriano should be healthier than he was last year, Soto should be healthier and slimmer, and Zambrano looks to be in the best shape of his life.  That has to count for something, right?

A full year of a healthy Aramis Ramirez won’t hurt either.  Can he stay healthy?  It’s impossible to say, but I’m assuming he will miss a minimum of games in 2010.

Derrek Lee had a tremendous 2009.  I don’t expect that from him in 2010, but I do think he will be very good.  His neck injury continues to be a concern, but he says that it is improved from last season.

The pitching staff should be solid, if not spectacular.  I already mentioned Zambrano.  Dempster will be a workhorse and will do a good job.  Ted Lilly will be solid once he returns from the DL in May.  What about Randy Wells?  Hard to say.  Unfortunately, I’m expecting him to have some troubles in his sophomore campaign (See, I’m not totally a homer).  Carlos Silva has been a pleasant surprise this Spring.  Can he maintain his performance into the season?  I wouldn’t bet on it, but it is important to remember that at one time, Silva was a good pitcher.  Tom Gorzelanny struggled this Spring, but will get some starts.

The bullpen is a big question mark.  Closer Carlos Marmol is capable of being unhittable.  He’s also capable of setting records for walks and hit batters.  How Marmol balances this tight rope act will determine the success of the Cubs bullpen.

The bullpen will feature three rookies; Justin Berg, John Russell, and Esmailin Caridad.  It appears that Caridad will handle the set up duties.  Left-handers John Grabow and Sean Marshall will provide the experience in the bullpen.

Bottom line: I expect the Cubs to win 87-90 games in 2010.  Will it translate into a division championship?  I still think they will need some help from the Cardinals, but as I said at the beginning of the post, anything is possible.

Cincinnati Reds — For some reason, the Reds have been a bit of a hot pick recently.  At one point, they were projected to finish ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central.  I’m not buying it.

Joey Votto is a star in the making.  The first baseman hits for average and has 25-30 homerun power.  But who do the Reds have to support him?

 The outfield consists of Jonny Gomes, rookie Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce.  The Reds thought so little of Gomes that they brought him back on a minor leage deal.  Not exactly a vote of confidence.  Stubbs showed some promise in his limited at-bats last year and has had a good Spring.  Jay Bruce is overrated in my opinion.  In his two big league seasons, Bruce has a .240 batting average and a .309 OBP.  That doesn’t get me overly excited.

Scott Rolen will be back at third for the Reds.  He is a good ball player, but not a difference maker at this point in his career.  He has trouble staying healthy and he hasn’t hit more that 20 homers since 2006.  Orlando Cabrera takes over at short.  The 35-year old is with his fifth team in the past four years.  Brandon Phillips will do a good job at second.  He has 20-30 homerun power and has averaged 26+ stolen bases per year since joining Cincinnati.  Ramon Hernandez will hanhdle the catching duties in his second year with the Reds.

Cincinnati’s rotation is led by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.  Harang is coming off of two miserable seasons that saw him go 6-17 and 6-14 with a combined ERA in the 4.50 neighborhood.  Arroyo has had two decent seasons the past two years going 15-11 and 15-13, but his combined ERA for the past two years is above 4.00.

Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey are both young pitchers with a great deal of promise.  But if they don’t break through in 2010, they may lose their status as hot prospects.  Rookie  Mike Leake gets the nod as the Reds number five starter.  He has yet to spend any time in the minors, so big things are obviously expected from him.

The Reds bullpen includes closer Francisco Cordero, Arthur Rhodes, and Micah Owings.  They’re not bad, but the big question is, how often will they get the opportunity to hold leads and save games.

Houston Astros — The Astros seem to follow the same pattern every year.  They start out stronger than expected, so by the trade deadline, they have deluded themselves into believing they can contend.  They either hold players they should trade or acquire players they think will push them over the hump.  It almost never works, but they fall for it just about every year.

The Astros should not be particularly good.  Roy Oswalt is always tough, but is having some back issues.  Wandy Rodriguez is probably their most consistent starter.  Brett Myers, Bud Norris, and Felipe Paulino round out the Astros fairly weak rotation. 

At the moment, it appears Matt Lindstrom is going to be the Astros closer.  It looks like newly acquired Brandon Lyons, who was signed to be the team’s closer, has lost the job after a horrible Spring Training.  The bullpen will not be a strength for the Astros.

At the plate, Houston still has big boppers like Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman.  Center fielder Michael Bourne had a good 2009 after a poor 2008.   Hunter Pence is looking to repeat a strong 2009 that saw him hit .282/.346/.472 with 25 homeruns.

On the infield, the Astros lost Miguel Tejada to free agency and picked up Pedro Feliz to play third.  Rookie Tommy Manzella will play short.  He has a good glove, but not much is expected from him at the plate.  Kaz Matsui will be back at second base.  Weak hitting catcher J.R. Towles will be the Astros starting catcher after spending most of the past three seasons in AAA.

The real question to be answered by the Astros in 2010 is not will they compete (they won’t), but what will they do about Roy Oswalt (Will they trade him?) and Lance Berkman (Will they pick up his option?)?

Milwaukee Brewers — With sluggers like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, you know the Brewers are going to score some runs.  But will their pitching staff be able to keep the team in games?  That was the question in 2009 and in the end, the answer was that the pitching staff was not good enough.  How will that question be answered in 2010?

A lot is being expected out of Yovani Gallardo,  He’s being asked to be the staff ace despite having just a 13-12 record in his only full season in the majors.  The rest of the staff — Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, Dave Bush, and Manny Parra — are all decent pitchers, but none are the type of pitcher you would call on in a big game.  I do think the rotation will be better in 2010 than it was in 2009, but I don’t think the improvement is enough.

The bullpen should be a strength for the Brewers.  Led by closer Trevor Hoffman, the bullpen also features Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins, Cladio Vargas and Carlos Villenueva.   

Third baseman Casey McGehee is coming off a breakout 2009 season that saw him hit .301/.360/.499 with 16 homeruns.  Rookie shortstop Alcides Escobar will be a defensive upgrade over former shortstop J.J. Hardy, but it’s doubtful that he’ll match Hardy’s offensive punch.  Rickie Weeks returns at second base and is looking to stay healthy and return to form.  Prince Fielder will put up great numbers again in 2010.  Will he stay healthy?  Because of his size, people expect him to get injured at some point, but he has stayed healthy thus far in his career.

 The outfield is in a state of flux.  Braun has left field nailed down.  But Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut are fighting over the other two spots.  The Brewers have let it be known that they are not thrilled with Hart’s play in right and Jim Edmonds has let it be known that he’s not interested in a 4th or 5th outfielder position.  Edmonds has backed up his desire for playing time with a terrific Spring Training.

Pittsburgh Pirates — Here’s how the PR story goes: Pittsburgh has a plan.  They are a low revenue team, so they have to do things differently.  Rather than spend their money on their big league payroll, they instead spend on the draft and player development.  They can’t compete on payroll, so they’ll compete with talented, low-cost youngsters.  They have a plan.  Don’t believe it.

The Pirates are not building for the future.  They have become a farm team at-large for the rest of the league.  They take their revenue sharing money and pay down their debt.  They pocket the money.  They develop their players and then trade them away.

The Pirates do have a plan, but it’s not the plan they claim they have.  Their plan is to develop players and once they get near free agency or make a decent amount of money through arbitration, they trade them for more low cost prospects.    Then they do it again, all the while living of the revenue sharing money.

You can’t completely discount players like Andrew McCutchen and Lastings Milledge.  They are bright stars in an otherwise dark sky.  But the names don’t really matter.  If they do well and are in a position to demand more money, the Pirates will just trade them away. 

The Pirates will fininsh at the bottom of the NL Central again this year.  They’ll have a losing season again this year; their 18th consecutive losing season.  But it’s okay.  The Pirates have a plan.

St. Louis Cardinals — It’s fashionable for Cubs fans to hate the Cardinals.  I just can’t do it.  I cheer against them, but at the same time, I admire them.  Regardless of who outspends them — and teams like the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers routinely outspend them — they remain one of the best teams in the league.

It’s fair to say that once again in 2010, the Cardinals will be the team to beat in the NL Central.  They still have Albert Pujols (had you heard?) and they re-signed Matt Holliday.  That’s a nice 1-2 punch.  They also have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the front of their rotation.  That’s another nice 1-2 punch.

Filling in around these all-star caliber players are a cast of rookies (Colby Rasmus and David Freese) and second-tier veterans (Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumacher, Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny, Ryan Franklin).  Somehow, manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan gets the most out of their players and get them all pulling in the same direction.  The result?  More often than not, the Cardinals are the class of the division.

Of course, the Cardinals stars can also be their achilles heel.  What happens if Albert Pujols misses a significant portion of the season with an injury.  By losing just that one player (albeit one of the best players in the game), the entire complexion of the team changes.  And the bad news for the Cardinals is that Pujols does have some back issues.  Even so, you can’t count on something going wrong for the Cards.  They’re the best team in the division and I expect them to be NL Central champs again at the end of the season.

Come October, here’s how I expect the NL Central to look:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

That’s it for the predictions.  The season starts today for most teams (the Yankees and Red Sox kicked things off last night).  As always, there’s a good chance I”ll be wrong about my predictions, but even so, baseball is back.  Life is good.