Over the past three posts, I’ve taken a look at what the offseason would/could/should look like.  In part 1, I looked at the infield, part 2 was devoted to the outfield, and I looked at the pitchers in part 3.  If you haven’t had a chance to read those posts yet, I’d suggest taking a look.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

**********

I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.