Rizzo became available after the Padres acquired 1B Yonder Alonso from the Reds earlier this off-season in a deal that sent pitcher Mat Latos to Cincinnati.  Rizzo is 22 years old and mashed the ball in AAA.  Last year, he hit .331/.404/.652 with 26 home runs in 413 plate appearances.  However, he struggled when he was promoted to the big leagues, hitting just .141/.281/.242 in 153 plate appearances.

In 2008, Rizzo was diagnosed with Hodgkins Lymphoma.  However, there doesn’t appear to be any concerns for his health at this point.  He seems to have returned to form over the past few years and many believe that this move sets the stage for Rizzo to become the long-term solution the Cubs seek at first base.  Carrie Murskat of MLB.com spoke to GM Jed Hoyer and he indicated that Bryan Lahair will be the Cubs 1B in 2012 with Rizzo starting the season in AAA.  Of course, that could change depending on how Rizzo and LaHair perform in Spring Training.

Cates is also just 22-years old, but he has never pitched above Class A.  He was a third round pick of the Padres in 2010.  During the 2011 season at Class A, Cates threw 118 innings and posted a 4.73 ERA.  He had 8.5 k/9 and gave up 4.0 BB/9. This was what one observer from MLBBonusBaby.com thought of Cates when he was drafted:

Zach Cates is a fast-rising right-handed pitcher from Northeast Texas Community College. Cates is originally from Conway High School in Conway, Arkansas, a town about 30 miles north of Little Rock. He came to NTCC as a two-way player, and he was forced into action as the starting catcher as a freshman due to an injury to the starter, meaning he was limited to seven mop-up innings in relief on the mound. However, he moved into a full-time pitching role this spring, and the result has been absolute domination as a starter. Blessed with a natural pro body and a projectable frame, he has seen his stuff mature into a mid-rotation starter’s arsenal, though he still has work to do with his command and control, which are understandably below-average due to his lack of experience with pitching. His fastball is easily his best current pitch, and it’s already plus, sitting 93-95 in most outings, touching 97 a few times late in the spring. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, and it gets above-average grades with good late fade. His curveball is more of a fringe-average pitch with potential to be simply average with time, but with two above-average pitches, scouts aren’t as reliant on him developing that third pitch, though it would be nice. He has upside as a number three starter, which is quite good at the junior college level, and there have been whispers about him becoming a supplemental first round pick, though he fits better in the second or third rounds, where he should be signable.

I’m disappointed that the Cubs lost Andrew Cashner in this deal, but I completely understand it.  Cashner had a lot of upside, but so far in his short career, he was having trouble staying healthy.  The Cubs insisted on stretching him out to be a starter, but I always felt that he was better equipped for the bullpen.  In fact, I could have seen him as the Cubs set-up man or closer sometime in the future.  Even so, trading him to get Rizzo was the right thing to do.

Losing Na should not pose a huge problem for the Cubs in the future.  He is a terrifically gifted athlete with above-average speed, but never projected to be much of a hitter.

Clearly, the Cubs got the better end of this deal.  Of course, JedStein had some inside info on the main player in this trade, Anthony Rizzo.  They were both with Boston when Rizzo was originally drafted by the Red Sox, and Hoyer was the GM in San Diego when Rizzo was traded from Boston to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez.

Although it appears that acquiring Rizzo will put an end to any speculation that the Cubs might be in on Prince Fielder, I’m not so sure.  Rizzo is a highly respected prospect, but he has yet to prove himself at the big league level.  It seems to me that going all in on Rizzo, regardless of his upside, is a rather substantial risk.  Obtaining Rizzo certainly gives the Cubs a bit more leverage when negotiating with Fielder (particularly when it comes to the length of the contract), but I don’t think it completely excludes the possibility that the Cubs could still sign the big first baseman.  As with most of these things, time will tell.

Zambrano has had issues over the past few seasons controlling his emotions. During the 2011 season, the Cubs placed Big Z on the disqualified list after he intentionally threw at the Braves Chipper Jones. The pitch that Zambrano threw at Jones came after the big right hander had given up five home runs and ten runs to the Braves. Following his ejection, Zambrano left the stadium before the game was over and announced that he was retiring. Ultimately, Zambrano sought counseling and missed the remainder of the season.

Volstad is a former  first round pick who has struggled as a major leaguer. In parts of three seasons he has a 4.59 ERA and a penchant for giving up home runs. He has four pitches (fastball in the low 90′s, curve, slider, and change), but none of his pitches are really considered plus pitches. His slider in particular is a work in progress and tends to get him into trouble from time to time. He projects to be the fourth or fifth starter in the Cubs starting rotation.

So why did the Cubs make this move? It’s not a salary dump. Although they saved about $2.5 million on Zambrano, Volstad is projected to earn between $2.5 and $3.0 million through arbitration in 2012. It’s also not because Volstad is considered a better pitcher than Zambrano. In fact, I think it’s pretty clear that the Cubs rotation just got worse after this trade.

It appears that the Cubs made the trade because they do not believe that Zambrano is capable of controlling his emotions in the heat of competition and they do not want a repeat of last year. My guess is that the Cubs front office also liked the fact that Volstad comes with three more years of club control and will likely remain relatively inexpensive during that time.

I understand that the front office wants to do everything possible to assure clubhouse peace in the future. There’s no doubt that Zambrano, while well-liked by his teammates, could occasionally be a disruptive force. Even so, I didn’t expect the Cubs to trade him. I also didn’t expect Zambrano to waive his no-trade clause, although going to Miami where his friend and Venezuelan countryman Ozzie Guillen is manager does make sense.

Perhaps this is a move in the right direction. If you judge the trade purely on baseball terms, then it’s a loss for the Cubs. However, more is in play here than just on-the-field consideration so I’ll give JedStein the benefit of the doubt. At the same time, I’ll remind Theo and Co. that the off-season is becoming short and they still have many more moves to make before the Cubs are legitimate contenders in 2012. I assume that is their short-term goal, so they need to get busy signing Prince Fielder, Huroki Kuroda and one or both of the big name Cubans, Yeonis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. That’s not asking too much, is it?

Early Wednesday, the deal was finalized, as reported by ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine via Twitter.  according to Levine, the deal is Marshall for Wood and two unnamed minor leaguers.  As of this writing, we still don’t know who the minor leaguers might be.

At first glance, this trade didn’t make sense to me.  Why would the Cubs trade Marshall, a guy that Epstein referred to as “the best left-handed pitcher in baseball” for a guy apparently not talented enough to break into the Reds starting rotation?  And if the Cubs felt they needed a lefty starter, why not just give Marshall a shot?

Now that I’ve had a chance to give this a little thought, I’m starting to understand how this deal makes sense.  Marshall is set to earn around $3 million (Maybe a little more.  Arbitration is pending) in 2012, after which he will be a free agent.  On the other hand, Wood is cheaper and under team control for the next four years.  In other words, Wood is expected to become a serviceable 5th starter (maybe 4th) for the Cubs.  He’ll also be cheaper than Marshall and around longer.

So I understand the Marshall-for-Wood part of the deal.  I’m not crazy about it, but I understand it.  The reason I’m not crazy about it is that it seems to me that the Cubs could have gotten more for Marshall.  He’s a proven 7th/8th inning pitcher and he has the potential to be a starter.  However, I’ve got to believe that the Hoyer/Epstein brain trust had a good handle on what type of haul they could get for Marshall.  So I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

The thing that could really sweeten this deal is the minor leaguers coming from Cincinnati to Chicago.  We don’t know who they are yet, but the Reds have a few promising young players.  We’ll have to wait to see who the minor leaguers are in this deal before we can really judge it.  However, as things stand right now, it’s not a bad deal.  It’s not a great deal either, but it’s not anything that is going to cripple the team in 2012 and it just might end up making the starting rotation better.

This post was original written and posted on Wednesday, 12-21-11

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UPDATE (12/22/11) — Still no word on who the minor leaguers might be coming from the Reds in the Marshall-for-Wood trade.  However, there has been some talk that the deal includes a provision that the Reds have to be able to sign Marshall to an extension.  Considering that Marshall is in Cincy right now taking a physical, that makes sense.  How many trades have you heard of that require one of the players being traded to take a physical?

It is odd that this trade is being drug out so much.  It’s odd that the minor leaguers are not being announced and it’s odd that Marshall is being required to take a physical.  It’s weird, but we should know what’s going on soon.

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UPDATE #2 (12/23/11) — Word has finally come out concerning who the two Reds minor leaguers will be coming over to the Cubs as part of the Sean Marshall trade.  The two names don’t mean much to me, but they are Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes.  According to MLB Trade Rumors:

Sappelt, a 24-year-old outfielder, hit .243/.289/.318 in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati last year, his big league debut. He produced a .313/.377/.458 batting line in 336 plate appearances for their Triple-A affiliate in 2011. Torreyes, a 19-year-old infielder, hit .356/.398/.457 in 306 plate appearances at the Low Class-A level this past season. Baseball America ranked Sappelt and Torreyes as the Reds’ 20th and 22nd best prospects in last year’s Prospect Handbook, respectively.

While the Cubs haul for Sean Marshall isn’t earth shattering, I think it’s pretty good.  By trading one relief pitcher (albeit a good relief pitcher) who had one year until free agency, the Cubs front office added a starting pitcher with four years of team control who will likely serve at the back of the rotation in 2012, and two good young prospects who will improve the Cubs farm system and could some day help the big league club.  Good job, JedStein!

Zambrano will be paid for his time away from the team, so for all intent and purposes, there was no suspension.  It’s unclear how long the anger management training will last, but my understanding is that players can only stay on the restricted list for a maximum of 30 days.

Of course, this is good news for the Cubs.  Had Zambrano remained suspended, the Cubs were going to be stuck with having only 24 players on the big league roster.  However, MLB rules allow teams to replace a player on the restricted list, meaning the Cubs can go with the traditional 25 man roster.

So what now?  What happens when Zambrano is done with anger management training and is ready to resume his place in society?  A lot of people feel Z should be waived or traded.    In my last post, I explained why trading Zambrano might be easier said than done.  In a nutshell, Z is:

• Underperforming
• Owed $45.4 million
• Has a no-trade clause in his contract

These things would make it tough, but not impossible, to trade the big right-hander.

Despite the difficulty involved in putting together a trade, our friends over at MLB Trade Rumors.com put together a list of potential trades the Cubs could make involving Zambrano.  They include:

• Zambrano to Houston for Carlos Lee
• Zambrano to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand and Edgar Reteria
• Zambrano to the Mets for Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo
• Zambrano to Atlanta for Derek Lowe
• Zambrano to Cleveland for Travis Hafner, Kerry Wood, and Jake Westbrook
• Zambrano to Kansas City for Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, and Kyle Farnsworth
• Zambrano to the Yankees for A.J. Burnett

One of the commenters at MLBTR then floated the possibility of:

• Zambrano to Baltimore for Brian Roberts

As MLBTR pointed out, some of these trades would require that the Cubs also kick in a portion of Zambrano’s rather hefty salary.

A lot of people feel the Zambrano to the Mets rumor has the most possibilities.  The Mets are in need of starting pitching, Perez is holding the team hostage by refusing to go to the minor leagues to work out his pitching problems, and the Mets desperately want to move Castillo and his contract.  The Mets have been keeping their eye on a possible trade with Seattle for Cliff Lee, but one of the Mets trading chips, minor leaguer Jenrry Mejia, went down with an injury, making a Cliff Lee deal less likely.  Moving quickly on Zambrano could shore up their pitching staff without disturbing their farm system.

New York is a place that Zambrano might fancy.  He views himself as a big stage kind of guy and he might just jump at the chance to remake himself on the biggest stage in baseball.

Of course, the Cubs have some say in the matter and my hope is that they say “no way.”  Perez is a mess and Castillo is both not very good and overpaid.  Why trade one problem for two? 

Of course, this brings up the question, is it even necessary/desireable to trade Zambrano?  For me, the jury is still out.  Last year, I strongly fell on the side of trading Milton Bradley at all costs.  He was a malcontent who did not care about playing well or helping the team.  Zambrano seems to be just the opposite, although I’ll be quick to admit that he is going about being a team player in the wrong way.

In a conversation Z had with former teammate Kevin Millar following his suspension, Z explained that he was trying to fire up the team and was not trying to call out any one person, including Derrek Lee.  He also admitted that he knew he wasn’t the right person for the job, considering his own struggles.  However, when no one else stepped up, his frustration got the best of him and he threw a tantrum.   Obviously, not the best course of action, but I do appreciate his desire to fire up the team and win baseball games.

Having said that, Zambrano has a long track record of inappropriate behavior during his career.  The most significant was beating up his battery mate, Michael Barrett.  So I don’t want to paint Zambrano as a guy who is simply full of passion and who wants to fire up his team to play better.  Z has issues, there’s no doubt about that.  Even so, I don’t think the Cubs are in the same boat with Z that they were with Bradley.  They don’t have to trade him come hell or high water.

Even so, Hendry should keep his eyes out for a potential trade.  Zambrano is not irreplaceable.  If Hendry’s old buddy Andy McPhail calls and wants to discuss a Zambrano for Brian Roberts trade, by all means, Hendry should listen.

Enough is enough!  Stop the madness!

The month of May just ended and the Cubs are approximately one-third of the way through the season.  During their two months of play, the Cubs have a record of 24-29, good for third place in the NL Central.  They are currently 6.5 games behind the first place Reds (I still have trouble typing that).

Like so many Cubs fans, I am disappointed in the way the team has played thus far this season.  The fact that the Cubs have lost seven-of-eight games to the lowly Pirates just makes the season seem that much worse.  But the fact is that there is still time to turn things around.  By no means is the season a lost cause (at least not yet).  Enough with the calls to blow up the team.

Let’s be practical for a moment.  The Cubs are trailing a Reds team that is over-performing.  Baseball history is full of teams that played well for two or three months, only to turn back into pumpkins as the season progressed.  A turnaround by the Cubs coupled with a Reds team that comes back to Earth could mean a happy second half of the season for the Cubs.

What about the Cardinals, you ask?  The Cardinals are not the juggernaut a lot of people make them out to be.  They are very vulnerable this year.  Already, we’ve seen two of their starting pitchers go down to injury.  A similar scenario of injuries among the Cards position players – especially if one of them is named Pujols – could spell disaster for St. Louis.  Again, a Cubs turnaround could land them in the catbird’s seat.

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m not trying to be pollyanaish here.  The Cubs have their problems.  No doubt about that.  But the problems can be overcome.  Already in the first two months of the season we have witnessed some pleasant surprises from the Cubs.  Who could have predicted the re-birth of Carlos Silva?  Starlin Castro has been a pleasant surprise early in the season.  He’s going through some struggles currently, but that’s all part of the rookie adjustment.  Tyler Colvin has continued his good hitting from Spring Training.  Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome are all hitting well.  My favorite whipping boy, Mike Fontenot, has gotten his mojo back from 2008.  All is not lost.

Of course, you can’t talk about the good without talking about the bad.  Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez have both been in a season-long slump.  DLee appears to be pulling out of his.  Ramirez not so much.  But even this is good news if viewed in the proper light.  If the Cubs can stay in contact with the division leaders while their number three and four hitters stink up the joint, that bodes well for the team when Lee and Ramirez get back in the groove.  At least that’s the way I choose to view the situation.

I don’t have any such good vibes about the bullpen.  It stinks.  John Grabow has been horrible, the youngsters have been inconsistent (as should be expected from youngsters), and Carlos Zambrano did not solve the setup man role dilemma.  However, hope may be just over the horizon. 

With both Grabow and Esmailin Caridad on the DL, the Cubs have added Andrew Cashner to the bullpen.  Cashner has had a terrific year in the minor so far as a starting pitcher.  However, Cashner’s background is as a closer in college (one of the best), so in my mind, he is a welcome addition to an otherwise weak bullpen.  For the time being, Sean Marshall (who is having a very nice year) will handle the 8th inning duties, but don’t be surprised to see Cashner take over those duties in the very near future.

So can we please put the “trade everyone” talk away for another month.  Let’s first see what June brings.  If things don’t turn around for the Cubs, then let’s start talking about the future.  But for now, let’s concentrate on the present.

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Ken Griffey, Jr. announced his returement yesterday.  In all honesty, it was probably time.  The 40-year old Griffey really hasn’t been the Ken Griffey, Jr. we have come to know and love for many years.

But I don’t want to bash Griffey.  I’m sure he’d be the first to admit that the last several years have not been his best.  Instead, I want to remember the young Griffey.  The Seattle Mariners Griffey of old, before he was the Cincinnati Reds Griffey.  He was a young-faced kid with a smile a mile wide, a joyful personality, and a bat that could crush the ball.  He also had a Gold Glove-caliber glove.  In fact, my mitt is a Ken Griffey, Jr. model.

When I was a kid, I had the opportunity to go to the old Comiskey Park to see the White Sox play the Orioles.  I was by no means a White Sox fan, but my Dad somehow came up with the tickets, so we went.  We got to the game early and I got to see the two teams take batting practice.  We were sitting in foul territory down the right field line and I remember watching Jim Palmer (yes, it was that long ago) shagging flies in the outfield.

To that point, I was not a Jim Palmer fan.  I didn’t dislike him.  I mostly didn’t think about him.  He played for a team I didn’t care about in a league I didn’t follow.  Even so, that day I became a Jim Palmer fan.  The reason is that while he was shagging flies, I could see the joy with which he approached the game.  He was like a big kid out there.  He’d elbow out a teammate to get to a fly ball or he’d snag one behind his back.  He was just having fun.  The joy he displayed that day is the same joy I feel everytime I put on a glove and play catch with my kids or shag flies with one of the kid’s teams.  Ken Griffey displayed that same kind of joy in the way he approached the game.

Unfortunately for Griffey – and all of us who loved to watch him play – injuries took some of the joy out of the game for him.  His injuries got to be so commonplace that they became a punchline to a bad joke.  He played the outfield with reckless abandon (a trait I love) and he paid the price.  His legs betrayed him.  Then his glove betrayed him.  And finally when his bat betrayed him, he decided it was time to go.

Griffey didn’t end up having the kind of career a lot of people thought he would have.  And yet, he had a Hall of Fame career.  If he could be that good while dealing with one bad break after another, I have to wonder how good he really could have been with a couple of breaks going his way.

The other two first basemen available via free agency simply don’t fit the bill for the Cubs.  They would be better off re-signing Derrek Lee rather than pursue Berkman.  They are similar players, although Lee is the superior fielder.  Dunn could really help the Cubs offense, but I don’t think the team should give up the defense it would take to get that offense.

Then I turned my attention to the trade market.  The two players potentially available via trade that I discussed were San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau.  I honestly don’t know if the Cubs have the players it would take to make either of these trades, but I think it is worth investigating.

What I didn’t mention in the previous post is that the Cubs have some internal candidates they are going to have to  look at to determine who will be playing first base for the team in the future.

First on the list is the incumbent, Derrek Lee.  Lee is currently 35-years old and his slow start to the 2010 season may be an indication that age is starting to catch up with him.  I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but it could be.  Despite Lee’s offensive production during his time with the Cubs and his great defense, it seems to me that the Cubs should move in a different direction.  He may have a couple of good years left in him, but two good years on a four or five year contract is not a good deal.

Another candidate for first base is current left fielder Alfonso Soriano.  I’m fairly certain that moving Soriano to first base would not be the Cubs preferred choice, but it may turn into a necessity.  Soriano has already showed signs of slowing down in the outfield and his defensive ability in left seems to have regressed this year.  And remember, Soriano started his career as a second baseman.  He wasn’t a particularly good second baseman, but first base does not require the same level of foot work and dexterity that is required of a middle infielder.

It’s also important to remember that Soriano has five years left on a virtually untradeable contract.  He’ll be around for another four years beginning in 2011 making $18 million per year, so the Cubs have to figure out what to do with him.  With a possible opening at first base in 2011, Soriano may become the Cubs first baseman of the future.

Aramis Ramirez is another player the Cubs might consider for first base.  Of course, that assumes that Ramirez either doesn’t opt out of his contract at the end of this season, or if he does, that the Cubs can re-sign him.  If he is still with the club in 2011, the Cubs might consider moving him to first base in order to give highly touted prospect Josh Vitters an opening at third.

On the other hand, perhaps Vitters, who has struggled with the glove at third, could be converted into a first baseman.  There has been a lot of talk about moving Vitters to a different position, so maybe he’ll end up at first.  Another option is for Vitters to move to left field, a position that could be open if Soriano is moved to first.

Finally, the only prospect the Cubs currently have in the minors that is considered a first baseman is Micah Hoffpauir.  He’s not a flashy candidate, but he is cheap.  My own opinion is that Hoffpauir does not have a future with the Cubs.  He’s out of minor league options following this season and I don’t see him coming back with the Cubs in 2011.  However, if the Cubs decide to save money on first base next year and spend it elsewhere (or not spend it at all), Hoffpauir is one in-house candidate that is also inexpensive.

The 2011 season is too far away to make any real educated predictions about who might end up at first base for the Cubs.  But it does seem likely that change will be afoot and the Cubs will have a new first baseman next year.  Who that will be is anybody’s guess.

I think this contract extention is crazy.  At the moment, Howard is 30 years old and is already showing signs of aging.  In the field, he’s average at best, although that may be giving him too much credit.  At the plate, he strikes out more than he walks by a ratio of 2:1 and the trend is creeping even higher.  He is a notoriously bad hitter against left-handed pitchers and he has trouble handling breaking balls and off-speed pitches.  On the base paths, he has never been speedy, but it appears that he has lost a step in recent years.  Does this sound like the type of player you’d want to pay more than $20 million per year until he’s 36 or 37?

It appears to me that the Phillies shot themselves in the foot by signing Howard to such a ridiculous extention.  If that was all they did, I wouldn’t really care.  But what the extention also did was set the bar ridiculously high for every mediocre first baseman out there.  And my main concern is what the Cubs will have to pay to get a top notch first baseman after Derrek Lee’s contract expires at the end of this season.

The way the Cubs roster is structured currently (and into the foreseeable future), they need to have a first baseman who can hit with power.  Over the past several years, Lee has done a good job of providing that power.  He has averaged 31 homeruns per year since joining the Cubs, not including 2006 when he was injured most of the year and only played in 50 games.

However, Lee will be 35 years old in September and his stats are likely to start falling off.  I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on what he has done thus far in 2010, but the fact is that he’s hitting below .200 at the moment and is really struggling at the plate.  I’m confident that he’ll bounce back and have a decent season this year, but moving forward, I think the Cubs want to go in a different, younger direction. 

There are a few guys I could see the Cubs having interest in.  Adrian Gonzalez is a top-of-the-mind candidate.  He’s going to get very expensive once his contract is up, and all indications are that San Diego will not retain him.  Instead, they will likely want to trade him in exchange for some top prospects.  The Cubs farm system is in good shape, so a trade is possible.

Gonzalez is signed through the end of this season and the Padres hold a $5.5 million contract for next year that will certainly be exercised.  But what will his contract demand past 2011 be?  Howard will be earning $20-$25 million per year beginning in 2012.  The Yankees’ Mark Teixeira will be earning $22.5 million.  Miguel Cabrera will make $21 million a year beginning in 2012.  Gonzalez will likely want to make as much as these guys.

Who are the free agents on the horizon?  At the top of the list is Albert Pujols.  I don’t see any way the Cardinals don’t sign Pujols to an extention.  In the very least they will exercise their $16 million option for him in 2012.  The price tag for an extention will likely be in the $30 million per year range.  Of course, if Pujols is available, you have to go after him.

Lance Berkman will also be a free agent at the end of this season.  The Astros hold a $15 million option on him for 2012 and my guess is that they’ll exercise it.  But even if they don’t, would the Cubs be any better off signing Berkman than they would be working out an extention with Lee?  They are both the same age (Lee is five months older) and have similar skill sets.  I think Lee is the superior fielder.  So what would be the point of letting Lee walk and then signing Berkman?  I don’t think it makes sense.

What about Adam Dunn.  I think Dunn, who is 31,  gets a bad rap because he is a poor fielder and strikes out a lot.  But the fact is that the guy can hit.  He gets on base (career .383 OBP) and he hits with power.  He had at least 40 home runs every year from 2004-2008.  He fell just short of that mark in 2009 by hitting 38 home runs.

Dunn is currently making $12 million in Washington and will likely be looking for a long term contract in the $15 – $20 million range.  Considering Howard’s extention, it will probably be at the high end of that range.  Does Dunn make sense for the Cubs?  Personally, I don’t think so.  The Cubs need a first baseman who is at least an average fielder.  Dunn falls short of that mark. 

There is no one else in the upcoming free agent class that would fit the bill for the Cubs.  Could a trade be worked out for a first baseman?  I already mentioned Gonzalez.  Who else might be available?  I’ve had my eye on the Twins Justin Morneau.  He’s 29 years old and he’s signed to a reasonable contract.  He is signed through 2013 at just $14 million per year (beginning in 2011).  But why would the Twins want to part with the 2006 AL MVP?

The truth is that they might not.  However, a case can be made that they may be looking to move a contract or two.  First, the Twins recently signed catcher Joe Mauer to an 8-year/$184 million contract that starts in 2011.  That’s a lot of money for a team that traditionally has a smaller payroll.  Might they try to save some money by moving some of their bigger contracts in exchange for prospects?

Also, the Twins currently have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and one way they could relieve the logjam is by trading Morneau and moving Michael Cuddyer to first base.  Why wouldn’t they just trade Cuddyer?  Because he makes less than Morneau and his contract is up after the 2011 season.  Trading Morneau and retaining Cuddyer would give the Twins more flexibility and more financial breathing room.

The Cubs are going to have a big decision to make at the end of this season (or maybe earlier).  Should they re-sign Lee, sign a free agent, or make a trade.  With Ryan Howard’s extention, the price of poker just went up.

The Cubs outscored the Brewers 25-4 during the three game set.  In the Cubs 12-2 victory on Sunday, Ryan Theriot led the hit parade by going 5-6 with a double and three RBI.  The outburst raised his batting average to .329.  Tyler Colvin got the start in center field and went 3-4 with a double, home run, and three RBI.

In Sunday’s tilt, Randy Wells earned the victory.  He went 7.0 innings giving up seven hits and two earned runs.  He struck out six and allowed zero walks (that’s a nice ratio).  Ryan Dempster earned the win in the first game of the series on Friday, and on Saturday, Ted Lilly made his season debut by coming off the DL for the win.  Carlos Zambrano made his first appearance of the season out of the bullpen, going 1.1 innings and allowing two hits and one earned run.

Earlier in the week, the Cubs offense looked like it might be waking up, and it left no doubt over the weekend in Milwaukee by pounding out 41 hits.  The Cubs started the week with only two players (Mike Fontenot and Koyie Hill) hitting over .300.  By week’s end, eight different Cubs (Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Koyie Hill, Geovany Soto) are hitting over .300.  Unfortunately, both Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are struggling at the plate.

The Washington Nationals come into Chicago for a three game set at Wrigley this next week.  After the Nationals, the Cubs will host the D-Backs in a four game series beginning on Thursday.

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What are the Cubs going to do about finding a bullpen arm to handle the 8th inning?  Zambrano can fill in just fine for a while, but keeping him in the bullpen long term is probably not in the cards.

The Royals placed reliever Juan Cruz on waivers and rumor has it that the Cubs will be interested in bringing Cruz back to Chicago.  However, there has been some talk that Cruz did not leave the Cubs under the best of circumstances during his previous stint with the club.  The rumor is that he was a distration in the clubhouse, although the rumors are rather short on details.  Even if the Cubs are interested in signing Cruz, there’s a good chance that they will not be the only team interested in claiming him off waivers.

Another possibility is making a trade for a bullpen arm.  One candidate the Cubs likely have their eye on is Heath Bell.  The San Diego closer has been a hot name on the trade market since the beginnig of the season.  It’s likely that the Padres would want a king’s ransom for the right hander.  Would the Cubs be willing to part with two or three players/prospects for Bell?  And if they traded for him, would he handle the 8th inning for Carlos Marmol or vice versa?

Another possible trade with San Diego that hasn’t been talked about quite as much involves the Padres Mike Adams.  Adams is 31-years old and has closer-quality stuff.  He currently serves as the Pads set-up man.  I don’t think the Cubs would have to give up as much for Adams as they would for Bell, and Adams might be an even better fit.

If the Cubs don’t sign a reliever off waivers or trade for one, then they’ll have to look at bringing up one of their young arms.  The most likely candidate (at least in my mind) is Andrew Cashner.  Cashner is a former highly regarded college closer from TCU that the Cubs are in the process of turning into a starter.  I’d like to see him given a chance to serve as a set-up man in the big leagues.  Cashner is currently 1-1 pitching for AA Tennessee.  In 24.1 innings he has a 3.33 ERA and has struck out 29 while walking seven. 

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Following Saturday’s win in Milwaukee, Lou Piniella said that he would not be using Carlos Zambrano in back-to-back games, at least not for a while.  At first I disagreed with this decision, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense.

Zambrano is used to have at least five days rest between starts.  He’s not used to the bullpen, nor is he used to pitching without substantial rest between his appearances.  Of course, he will be throwing many fewer pitches in relief than he did as a starter, but I think it makes sense to allow him to settle in.  I don’t think it will take long for Zambrano to get used to his new role though.  In 10 days to two weeks he should be ready to start going on back-to-back games.

So now that we’re beginning our descent of Off Season Mountain, what can we expect from the Cubs in the weeks ahead?

The Cubs are in a tough position.  They presumably have very little money to spend, but they still have at least three holes to fill.  Some would say the Cubs have “needs” rather than “holes.”  I’m not sure which is technically correct.  The point is that the Cubs have viable options in-house to address their needs, but they would be better off looking elsewhere for help.

One such position is second base.  In-house, the Cubs have Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, neither of whom should be a starting second baseman on a legitimately contending team.  The Cubs have the fourth highest payroll in MLB (based on 2009 figures), but have one of the weakest second basemen in all of baseball.  That’s just not right.

Another option at second for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot.  If he moves to second, the Cubs will need to find a stand-in  for a year at SS until prospect Starlin Castro is ready (the Cubs wouldn’t bring Castro up at the beginning of 2010, would they?)  One in-house option at SS is Andres Blanco.  He’s a slick fielding SS, but a weak hitter.  The up-the-middle defense would be good, but the offense would be even weaker than it was last year when Fontenot was starting at second.

If there’s any money available, the Cubs could improve the team by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year deal.  Of course, I’m sure that Hudson would like a multi-year deal for $4-$5 million per year (he made $3.38 million plus bonuses last year), but considering the current state of the free agent market, that’s unlikely.

Another guy to consider is the guy that sent Hudson to the bench last year in Los Angeles: Ronnie Belliard.  He’s another guy who is seemingly being shunned in free agency.  He made $1.9 million last year and probably won’t command much, if any, more this year.

The idea is to find a second baseman who can be had on a cheap ($1-$3 million) one-year deal, but who will also make the team better.  Either Hudson or Belliard are better options than what the Cubs currently have in-house.

If the Cubs decide to look to the free agent market for a SS, there are only two guys they should consider, but the odds are that neither one will meet the criteria of being cheap and willing to take a one year deal.  The two shortstops, Orlando Cabrera and Miguel Tejada, would both be upgrades, but likely out of the Cubs league.

Another position that needs attention is starting pitching.  The Cubs enter the season with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells as the only pitchers certain to be in the starting rotation.  Ted Lilly will start the year on the DL, so Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia will battle it out for the other two spots in the starting rotation.  No matter who emerges from that group, it doesn’t make the starting rotation very strong.

Rumors have been circulating that the Cubs are interested in adding Ben Sheets.  I’m all for signing Sheets, but I heard initially that he was seeking a contract for $12 million/year.  More recently, I’ve read that his demand is more in the $7-$9 million range.

I like Ben Sheets and when he is healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he’s coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of baseball for the entire 2009 season.  That’s not the kind of guy you want to spend a lot of money on or who you want to give a multi-year contract.

If Sheets’ price comes down to $3-$4 million for one year, I can see the Cubs getting involved (along with a host of other teams).  But at his current asking price, he’s not only out of the Cubs range, but also a bad risk.

Finally, the Cubs could use another bullpen arm.  In my opinion, this is the one need that the Cubs could probably fill in-house.  They have a depth of decent bullpen arms.  Even so, this appears to be the position where Jim Hendry is focusing his efforts.  Rumor has it that he is targeting the Blue Jays Jason Frasor.  I don’t know what the Cubs would have to give up to get Frasor, but I really have to question the wisdom of adding an arbitration-eligible bullpen pitcher who made $1.45 million last year when the team has other needs.

Honestly, I don’t expect any big moves out of the Cubs the remainder of the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs went into Spring Training without making any moves.  I hope that doesn’t happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

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Are the Cubs moving their Spring Training home to Florida?  I still think it’s a long-shot, but the Naples effort got a boost recently when the Collier County Hotel and Lodging Association voted unanimously to approve use of the County’s tourist tax to build a new stadium for the Cubs.

The move was important not only because it cleared the way to use proceeds from the tourist tax to help fund building the Cubs a new training complex, but also because it showed the Cubs that the hoteliers are completely on board with the proposal to bring the Cubs to Naples.  Cubs President Crane Kenney made it clear that the Cubs only want to go where they are wanted.  So the unanimous vote to use proceeds from the tourist tax was an important step forward for the Naples effort.

A few weeks ago, the Cubs announced that they had eliminated a proposed Spring Training site on the Gila River Indian Community in  Arizona.  That leaves Mesa, AZ and Naples as the only two remaining possibilities.

Admittedly, I am in the minority on this issue.  Given the circumstances, I think Jim Hendry did an excellent job of trading the troubled Bradley without having to pay a significant amount of money to do it.  In fact, he even got Seattle to throw in some money on the deal. 

Most of the criticism of the deal centers around the fact that Carlos Silva is not very good.  It’s a difficult point to argue.  In 2008, he posted a 4-15 record and a 6.46 ERA.  In 2009, Silva had a 1-3 record and an 8.60 ERA in eight starts before injuring his shoulder and missing most of the remainder of the season.

His contract doesn’t help the situation.  Silva is owed $11.5 million in 2010, another $11.5 million in 2011, and a team option for 2012 worth $12 million with a $2 million buyout.  That’s a lot of money for a guy who apparently isn’t very good.

If I had to defend Silva (which I don’t, but I will), I’d point out that his last two years have been the worst of his career and now that his shoulder is repaired, there’s reason to hope that he’ll rebound to his previous form.  To give you an idea of what Carlos Silva is capable of, his career ERA is 4.72 even after his two disastrous years in 2008-09.

I’d also point out that four times in his eight year career, Silva has pitched 180 or more innings in a season.  So dispite his injury last year, Silva appears to be a workhorse.

Finally, I’d point out that, while Silva stunk up the joint in 2008, he did it for a team that lost 101 games.  Silva may not have helped the cause much, but the Mariners were the worst team in the AL that year, so his record and ERA may be at least partially a result of the team he pitched for.

I’m not sure what critics of the trade expected the Cubs to get in return for Bradley.  At one time early in the off season, I held out hope that Bradley could be included in a package that could possibly net Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays or Brian Roberts and Luke Scott from the Orioles.  That was foolish.  It was nothing more than wishful thinking.

Then I predicted the Cubs would trade Bradley to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand.  In some respects, I think that deal had possibilities, but only if the Giants were willing to risk adding Bradley to their clubhouse.  They wisely were not willing to take that risk.

I threw out a couple of other scenarios that were probably just as unrealistic as those I listed above.  It was during the Winter Meetings that I finally realized that there really was no market for Bradley.  Despite being one of the better hitters OBP-wise in the game, the vast majority of teams simply didn’t want to invite his abrasive personality into their clubhouse.  Texas was only willing to bring Bradley back if the Cubs would pay them $16 million to do it.  Tampa Bay had a potential interest, but only if the Cubs took Pat Burrell off their hands (a player the Cubs could not use) and paid several million dollars for the privilege.

During the Winter Meetings, I finally understood just how little leverage Jim Hendry and the Cubs had.  They had painted themselves into a corner and had made it clear to anyone paying attention that they fully intended on trading Bradley, no matter the cost.  No other team had reason to negotiate too hard.  They knew they had the upper hand.  Hendry and the Cubs were negotiating from a distinct position of weakness.

That’s why my opinion is that Hendry did an excellent job of trading Bradley.  Was it a perfect trade?  Absolutely not.   Will Carlos Silva help the 2010 Cubs?  It’s too early to tell.  But given the circumstances, Jim Hendry made the best of a very bad situation.  Of course, it’s important to remember that the “very bad situation” was of Hendry’s own doing, but in the end, he got the best deal he could reasonably get.