On Tuesday, the Cubs declined to offer arbitration to free agents Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, and Reed Johnson.  Not offering arb to Gregg and Johnson was not surprising, but there was some question about whether or not Harden would be offered arb.

As a type B free agent, the Cubs could have received a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the draft if Harden had turned down arbitration and signed with another team.  However, they must have been afraid that Harden would accept arbitration.  I’m not so sure, but if he had, he likely would have recieved an arbitration award in the $8 – $10 million range.

Harden’s health is always a question mark.  His agent insists that he is completely healthy.  However, as Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald points out, no one knows more about Harden’s health than the Cubs.  They worked with him on a day-to-day basis and had full access to his medical records.  Maybe they know something that the rest of us don’t know.

I was disappointed that the Cubs didn’t offer arb to Harden.  I thought it was a no-lose situation for the Cubs.  Either they re-sign Harden, which shores up their starting rotation, or they get an additional draft pick.

One criticism I have heard about Harden (in addition to not being able to stay healthy), is that he is hard on the bullpen.  Harden averages 6.0 or fewer innings per outing, meaning that the bullpen doesn’t get a rest on days he pitches.  Even so, it’s not unreasonable to pencil him in for 25 starts and 150 innings.  Is that worth $8 – $10 million a year.  In today’s climate, it’s not completely out of bounds.

In any case, it appears that Harden will be wearing a different uniform next year.  Boston and Seattle are already showing strong interest in Harden.  Boston is looking for a back-of-the-rotation starter (ala John Smoltz or Brad Penny) who has some health questions and can be signed reasonably.  I’m not sure that describes Harden, but Boston is interested. 

Harden is from Vancouver, BC and Seattle is hoping he’d like to pitch close to home next year.  My guess is that money will play a larger role in Harden’s decision on where to sign than location will.

**********

The Cubs continue to consider Naples, FL to become their Spring Training home.  Tom Rickett’s and other officials from the Cubs visited Florida earlier this week to meet with Florida’s Governor Charlie Crist and representatives from the Naples group trying to lure the Cubs to Naples.

According to Gary Price of Fifth Avenue Advisors, part of the group wanting to develop a new Spring Training facility in Naples for the Cubs, he becomes more confident that the Cubs will move to Florida every time he meets with the team.  He also said that he believes the Cubs interest in Naples is sincere.

I read some opinions in the blogosphere that the Cubs are just using Naples to get more out of Mesa.  I don’t see it.  I think Mesa is going to give the Cubs what they want regardless of whether Naples is in the picture or not.  The Cubs don’t need to pit Naples against Mesa.

Another argument that is being made against Naples is that the Spring Training facilities in Florida are more spread out than those in Arizona.  Travel from Naples to other teams’ Spring Training facilities can be as much as 4-5 hours.  While this is true, I don’t think it is a huge consideration.  I’m sure that the Cubs are much more concerned with the facilities themselves than they are with the travel required for 12-15 Spring Training games.

I still think Naples is a long shot, but I do believe that the Cubs are serious about the possibility of relocating their Spring Training facility there.

**********

The Cubs can scratch Billy Wagner off their wish list.  He signed yesterday with the Braves for a reported $7 million in 2010 and a team option of $6.5 million for 2011.

I wasn’t counting on the Cubs signing (or even pursuing) Wagner, but I have to wonder how the inability to trade Milton Bradley is affecting the Cubs ability to pursue free agents.  If they had an interest in Wagner, could they have pursued him or does trading Milton Bradley stand in the way of the team making any moves?

Joel Sherman of the New York Post (as reported by Bill Chastain of MLB.com) says that the Bradley for Pat Burrell trade possibility with Tampa Bay is still alive and well.  However, according to Chastain, the amount of money the Cubs throw into the deal remains the sticking point.

This got me thinking.  The Braves are anxious to move either Derek Lowe or Javier Vasquez.  They need to trim payroll, they have a deep rotation, and they need a corner outfield bat.  Would Atlanta be interested in trading Lowe straight up for Bradley?

Bradley is owed $21 million over the next two years.  Lowe is owed $45 million over the next three years.  Without throwing any money into the deal, the Cubs would take on an extra year and $24 million.  At first blush, it seems cost prohibitive.  However, the Cubs will likely have to pay a big chunk of money to get another team to take Bradley.  If you factor that money in, the $24 million more they’d have to take on in a Bradley for Lowe trade doesn’t seem so bad.

By the way, this isn’t a rumor.  It’s just me thinking out loud.  Is it workable?  Who knows.  If Jim Hendry is really good, maybe he can get Atlanta to throw some money into the deal.  Can you imagine that?  The Cubs could move Bradley, get a decent pitcher in return, and actually have some cash come back to them.  Ah, now I’m dreaming.