As you could probably tell from my post from Friday, I was a wee bit frustrated with the Cubs and their poor play.  After taking a couple of days off and with  two victories against the Pirates (and an unfortunate rain out on Sunday), I’m feeling better.  I’m still not ready to write off this season (despite what I may have said last week), so let’s take stock of where the Cubs stand at the moment.

The Cubs are currently 5.0 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and 3.5 back of the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race.  Five games behind in the division seems like a lot, but one good series for the Cubs and one bad one for the Cardinals could turn this thing around.  I hope I’m not being a cock-eyed optimist. 

Over the next couple of weeks, the only opponent the Cubs face that is over .500 is the Dodgers.  Otherwise, the Cubs face the Padres, the Nationals, the Mets and the Astros.  Let’s see who the Cardinals face.  D’oh!  With the exception of the Mets, the Cardinals face the same teams that the Cubs do, just in a different order.  We’ll there’s a good idea gone out the window.

It could still happen, but I don’t want to look foolish trying to explain it.

UPDATE: Ryno over at The Cub Reporter (comment #37) must have been thinking the same thing I was thinking when he did this research.  According to Ryno, the winning percentage of the opponents the Cubs face the rest of the season is .475.  The Cardinals opponents have a .482 winning percentage.  Not really much of a difference.

The bottom line is this: The Cubs have to find a way to gain 5.0 games (or more) on the Cardinals in the final 50 or so games of the season.  They can’t afford to lose any series and they have to hope that the Cardinals stumble at some point.  They’ll get started on this quest tonight in San Diego while the Cardinals take on the Dodgers in LA.

**********

Midnight tonight is the deadline for signing draft picks.  The Cubs have signed all of their draft picks, but top drafts choice Stephen Strasburg remains unsigned.  I read two different reports, one saying the Nats had offered $17.0 million and another one saying the offer was actually $12.0 million.  In either case, the offer would be the highest in the history of baseball (for a Rule 4 draft pick).

Scott Boras has insisted that Strasburg is a once-in-a-generation pitcher and that his client deserves $50 million.  Of course, it is Boras’ style to ask for the moon and settle for the stars, but $50 million?  That’s nearly five times to amount the Cubs paid Mark Prior in 2001.  That amount stands as the current highest ever for a Rule 4 draft pick.

Ultimately, Strasburg is in charge of these negotiations and the onus is on him to accept or decline Washington’s offer.  As much as Boras may want to shoot for the moon, it’s up to Strasburg to bring him back to Earth.

There’s one angle to this story that I’ve had in my mind, but I haven’t seen it reported anywhere.  Strasburg may be the best, most can’t miss, prospect ever taken in the MLB draft, but he’s not bigger than the game itself.  So Strasburg has to walk a fine line of maximizing his pay day without disrespecting the game.

To be a little clearer, I expect Washington to offer Strasburg in the neighborhood of $20 million, nearly twice the previous record.  If Strasburg walks away from that amount of money, in my opinion, he is making himself bigger than the game.  He’s saying that he is worth more than twice as much what any other player in the history of the game is worth and that he would rather play in Japan or in an independent league for a pittance than to play in MLB for $20 million.  That would not sit well with me and it would not set well with most fans.

Assuming the Nats do offer Strasburg anywhere near $20 million, I don’t think there is anyone that would then point the finger at them and suggest that they did not negotiate in good faith.  At or near $20 million, then the burden to shifts to Strausburg to get the deal done. 

**********

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the Reds should not do anything in the off season because the needs are too great and the money is too little.  I think Fay is correct, which raises the obvious question, what was the thinking behind the Scott Rolen acquisition? 

With Cincinnati having so many needs, but no ability (or willingness) to spend more money, why would they take on an additional $10 million +/- financial burden in Rolen.  Sure, he’s an upgrade over what the team previously had at third.  but couldn’t that $10 million have been put to better use in the off season?

I thought that the Reds were going to be a force to be reckoned with when Walt Jocketty became their GM.  Jocketty had done an admirable job in St. Louis and I assumed he would do the same in Cincinnati.  But so far, the moves he has made have not been admirable.  He’s tinkered around the edges and then suddenly made a huge, but questionable acquisition in Rolen. 

The Reds currently have a payroll of around $74 million.  About $43.5 million of that is tied up in just four players; Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Rolen (assuming Rolen’s full 2009 salary).  In 2010, the payroll is likely to remain the same, but the four highest paid players will take up $46.5 million.  That’s about 63% of the entire budget tied up in just four players.  That’s not a formula for success.

Granted, three of those contracts were signed pre-Jocketty, but he’s certainly not helping things by trading for Rolen.  From the outside, it appears that the Reds really don’t have a plan and their just flailing.  Fay, who has a much closer seat to the action, apparently feels the same way.

***********

John Smoltz was officially released and will be free to sign with another team on Wednesday when he clears release waivers.  According to Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins and Rangers all have interest.  Why aren’t the Cubs on that list?  Can anyone seriously argue that Smoltz wouldn’t make the Cubs bullpen better?

The one sticking point to my argument is that the Dodgers may want Smoltz to start.  They lost another pitcher to injury over the weekend when Hiroki Kuroda was hit in the head by a line drive.  So if Smoltz has his heart set on starting, the Dodgers may be the only team that can accommodate him. 

If the only offers available are for bullpen assignments, then the Cubs should definitely be in the mix.  Hopefully, Jim Hendry is just laying low until Smoltz can actually sign elsewhere.