It’s official. Despite beating the Pirates 6-0 yesterday at Wrigley Field, the Cubs were mathematically eliminated from the post-season when the Rockies beat the Brewers 7-5 in Colorado. The Rox remain atop the NL Wildcard standings with a 3.0 game lead over Atlanta.
So another year is in the books for the Cubs and we can officially turn our attention to a Cubs-less post season and what should be a busy and eventful off season. Chief among the off season duties for Jim Hendry will be to move Milton Bradley and his big contract, as well as build a 2010 team that includes a middle-of-the-order RBI bat and maybe a lead-off man.
In an interview with WMVP AM1000 in Chicago, Lou Piniella reiterated that adding a middle-of-the-order bat is tops on his wish list. He also was a bit critical of Bradley for driving in only 40 runs.
This second comment triggered a bit of a firestorm in the blogosphere between statheads and old school “I know what I see” types. The statheads pointed to Bradley’s respectable OBP and reiterated their oft heard battle cry that “RBIs are team dependent.” In other words, it’s not Bradley’s fault that people weren’t getting on base in front of him. Lost of the statheads was the fact that Bradley only hit .205 with runners in scoring position (forgive me for using an archaic stat like batting average).
The old schoolers pointed to Bradley’s lack of power (12 homeruns) and RBIs (40) as proof that he did not contribute much to the 2009 Cubs. They also argued that WAR and WARP and other stats are nice, but the essence of the game is to hit the ball and to drive in runs. If you don’t score runs, you can’t win the game, no matter how high your OBP. It’s an old arguement.
I straddle the line between the statheads and the old schoolers. They both have their place. In this arguement, I have to side more with the old schoolers, not because the statheads are wrong, but because Bradley just doesn’t have the stats to back up the statheads arguement. In general, what the statheads say is correct. Unfortunately, Bradley didn’t do enough in 2009 to give them the ammo they need to defeat the old schoolers.
**********
Jon Greenberg of ESPN Chicago has written an article examining the horrible off season Jim Hendry had last Winter and suggesting than if he can’t turn things around next year, it will likely be his last as Cubs GM. No new ground is covered in the article, but it is a good recap of how everything Hendry touched last Winter turned to crap.
When I look at Hendry’s body of work, I am a bit torn. Early in his tenure with the Cubs, I think it is fair to say that he was a bit under the thumb of Andy MacPhail. MacPhail, the current GM in Baltimore, is tight with a team’s money, so much so that he ran the Cubs like a small market team. Hendry could do little to build the Cubs into a perrennial contender while MacPhail was in town. As soon as he left, Hendry went to work.
For the first time in 100 years, the Cubs made the playoffs in back-to-back years under Hendry. They were picked by most pundits to win the division in 2009, but things didn’t quite work out that way. And that’s why Hendry is catching as much flack as he is. But in all fairness, there’s no way Hendry could have foreseen the injuries this year to Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, or three-fifths of the starting rotation. He couldn’t have known that Alfonso Soriano would have the worst year of his career or injure his knee.
What Hendry should have known was that Bradley was a horrible fit for the Cubs (and maybe for anyone). He should have know that Kevin Gregg wasn’t the answer at closer. And he should have known that Aaron Miles wasn’t worth half of what the Cubs paid him. Hendry can’t be blamed for the Cubs relative collapse in 2009, but there’s plenty that he can be blamed for.
In the end, I give Hendry a mulligan for the moves he made during last off season. He didn’t do a very good job, but he did put a team on the field that, had they just met expectations, would have been a playoff contender. Even with all of the team’s problems, they still are on pace to win 85+ games. That’s not at all bad, especially for a team that underperformed so badly.
Hopefully Hendry has learned his lesson about the type of player that can fit in and potentially thrive with the Cubs. The upcoming off season will be an opportunity for him to put his new found knowledge to work.
