The Cubs are 10.0 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and all but mathematically eliminated.  However, there is still a glimmer of hope in the Wildcard race.  The Cubs are currently 5.5 games behind Colorado, who has lost five games in a row, and San Francisco, who swept the Rockies over the weekend.  The only problem is that the Braves and Marlins are also ahead of the Cubs in the Wildcard standings.  That means that a lot of teams are going to have to lose a lot of games in order for the Cubs to have a chance at the post-season.

Is this just wishful thinking?  Maybe, but the Cubs have 34 games left to make up the 5.5 game deficit.  Also, all of the teams that the Cubs are chasing have a tougher road ahead of them than the Cubs.  For the remainder of the year, the Cubs only have seven games against teams with a record above .500, and four of those games are against San Francisco. 

Here are the number of games that the Wildcard contenders have against teams with a record above .500

• Colorado – 9
• San Francisco – 16
• Atlanta – 13
• Florida – 16

Of course, this is a bit deceiving because these teams do play each other head-to-head, so they can’t both lose in those games, but it is clear that the Cubs have the easiest schedule for the remainder of the year.

The quest gets started tonight as the Astros (59-72) come to town.  Roy Oswalt (7-5) takes on Rich Harden (8-7).  The game is on WGN.

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Speaking of Rich Harden, in my angst over Milton Bradley in my last post, I forgot to mention that both Harden and Aaron Heilman were claimed off waivers last week.  Reports are that Harden was claimed by Minnesota and Heilman was claimed by San Francisco.

There’s been a lot of talk about a possible trade with Minnesota for Harden, not so much about Heilmann going to San Fransisco.  Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says that the Twins will not meet the Cubs demand for Harden.  Phil Rogers at the Chicago Tribune says they will.  Just about everyone agrees that the price for Harden is two top shelf prospects.  Minnesota may not be willing to pay that steep of a price for a five week rental of Harden, but the Cubs don’t have any incentive to accept less.  Harden projects as a type A free agent, meaning the Cubs will get two compensation draft picks if they offer him arbitration and he signs elsewhere. 

Although Harden’s record is just 8-7 this year with a 3.99 ERA, he has been much better in the second half of the season.  Since the All-Star break, Harden is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA.  The Cubs are still alive in the Wildcard race and Harden is currently the team’s best pitcher (although Ted Lilly might argue with that).  Unless Minnesota overwhelms the Cubs with their offer (which is unlikely), I say keep Harden and offer him arbitration.  If Minnesota offer Joe Mauer, then the Cubs should make that deal.

Aaron Heilman is 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA.  He has not been particularly effective this year, but like Harden, he has been better lately.  If he had been claimed by a team other than a team ahead of the Cubs in the Wildcard race, I would say let him go for a middling prospect.  But since it is the Giants that claimed him, I would hate to see Heilman come back to haunt the Cubs.  Since the Cubs won’t get much for him anyway, and since they will only be saving about $240,000 on his contract if they move him, I say keep him.  There’s just not enough of a reason to let him go