The annual GM meetings got underway earlier this week in Chicago and all of the Cubs talk has centered around disgruntled outfielder Milton Bradley. The Cubs need a middle-of-the-order run producing bat, a center fielder, a lead-off hitter, a second baseman, and potentially a closer, but they can’t really turn their attention to those needs until they unload Bradley.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that Texas continues to be a possible landing spot for Bradley, but only if the Cubs pick up a “sizable portion” of Bradley’s contract. Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated suggests that the Cubs may have to eat $16 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years. Is that really the best the Cubs can get for Bradley?
Bringing Bradley back next year seems highly unlikely. According Heyman, Many Cubs players, including Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, won’t even talk to Bradley. Others reportedly applauded when it was announced that Bradley had been suspended late last season.
Early in the week there was a rumor of a three-team trade that would send Bradley to Toronto, Lyle Overbay to the Mets, and second baseman Luis Castillo to the Cubs. However, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (writing in the Boston Herald), Toronto wants no part of Bradley. Who can blame them?
Most reports seem to consider Texas, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco as the most likely trade partners for Bradley. There’s been a lot of talk about how much of Bradley’s contract the Cubs would have to eat in a trade with the Rangers, but virtually nothing has been said about who the Cubs might receive in return. I had previously suggested that a Bradley for Michael Young trade might make sense from a financial perspective for the cash-strapped Rangers, but that doesn’t appear to be the deal the Rangers are interested in making.
Trade rumors with Tampa Bay and San Francisco involve one bad contract for another. With Tampa Bay, the trade rumor involves Bradley’s remaining two-years at a total of $21 million for Pat Burrell’s one remaining year and $9 million. Obviously, the Cubs would have to kick in some money.
The Bradley-to-San-Francisco rumor involves sending Bradley’s remaining contract to the Giants for Aaron Rowand’s remaining three years and $36 million.
Of the three possibilities, the rumored deal with San Francisco makes the most sense to me. Assuming the Cubs would not have to kick in any money, they would be taking on an additional year and an additional $16 million in payroll obligation, but at least they’ll be getting a player they can use. With Texas and Tampa Bay, their are either just paying another team to take Bradley off their hands or they are taking on a player (Burrell) that they can’t use (or both). Adding Aaron Rowand to the line-up isn’t the perfect solution, but it is better than the other rumors currently floating around.
Whatever happens, Jim Hendry would be well-advised to make it happen fast. Bradley is and will continue to be a distraction until the Cubs are rid of him. There will be no “perfect deals” coming along that will allow the Cubs to dump Bradley. What they need to do is choose the least bad option and move on.
UPDATE: Well, you can cross the Giants off the list of potential trade partners for Milton Bradley. In an article by Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Giants GM Brian Sabean said:
“A deal like that? For a player like that?” Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. “No. Is that succinct enough? I don’t know that addition by subtraction would work. Smarter people than us have tried that.”
Oh well. Never say never, but it looks like any potential deal with San Francisco is dead.
Sullivan’s article also says that for the privilege of paying the Rangers $16 million or so to take Milton Bradley, the Cubs would receive a couple of unnamed, mid-level prospects to the Cubs. Ouch…
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Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com has an interesting post up concerning where he thinks the top 50 free agents will end up this off season. Of particular interest is that he thinks Rich Harden will sign with the Red Sox and the Cubs will sign Billy Wagner.
In his post, Dierkes suggests that Boston will take a risk and sign Harden to a one-year, $7 million contract. He compares the signing to what Boston did last year when they signed Brad Penney and John Smoltz.
I believe that now that Ted Lilly is a bit of a question mark for the start of the 2010 season, the Cubs will offer Harden arbitration. If he is looking for another deal in the $7 million range, I think he’ll accept. However, I believe he is looking for something closer to $10 million per year and would naturally prefer a multi-year deal.
If he hits the open market (the Cubs have until December 1 to offer arbitration), Harden will initially hold out for a multi-year contract. If one is not forthcoming, he may agree to a one-year deal, but I have to believe it is going to be closer to $10 million than $7 million. So if Tim is right and Boston signs Harden, it will have to be late in the off season when Harden has tested all of the other options.
For what it’s worth, Harden says he really liked Chicago and his agent, Arn Tellem, says Harden is 100% healthy. Even so, Harden’s injury history does not inspire confidence. His is an interesting case, particularly in an ecomony where most teams don’t seem to be open to taking on too much risk unless the price is right.
On Billy Wagner, Tim says:
37. Billy Wagner – Cubs. The Cubs don’t have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer. Then again, they wouldn’t do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season. The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves. Even Wagner’s old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.
Tim makes a great point here. If the Cubs weren’t willing to hand the closer’s job to Marmol in 2009 after he had a really good 2008, why would they in 2010 after a 2009 season that saw Marmol lead all NL relievers in walks and hit batters? Of course, Wagner’s contract expectations remain an issue. He earned $10.5 million in 2010 and will likely be looking for a two or three year contract with a similar annual salary. That’s a little rich for the Cubs’ blood.
Of course, this may be a moot point. The Red Sox could offer Wagner arbitration and he could accept. It seemed like a long-shot a week ago, but Wagner says that he enjoyed his time in Boston and his agent says he would possibly be open to accepting an arbitration offer. As part of their trade with the Mets for Wagner, the Red Sox agreed not to exercise Wagner’s $8 million option for 2010, but they are free to offer the lefty arbitration.
Whatever happens, I strongly feel that the Cubs must address the closer role if they want to be a legitimate World Series contender in 2010. If Wagner is not the answer, who is?
I previously mentioned Huston Street as a possibility. He will receive an increase in arbitration from his 2009 salary of $4.5 million. The Rockies don’t want to deal him, but may have to consider a trade in order to reach their budget goals. Street would be one of their more marketable players and the Cubs would be one of several teams interested in the closer.
Another possibility is Francisco Cordero of the Reds. The Reds are reportedly going to have to cut their budget from $71 million in 2009 to $65 to $70 million in 2010. That might not seem like a big cut, but the Reds have contractual obligations totaling $66 million to just 10 players. They are going to have to make some trades just to be able to field a full team.
Cordero is one of their most expensive players. He’s signed through 2011 for $12 million per year with another $12 million club option for 2012 ($1 million buyout). That’s expensive, but there are unfortunately no good, cheap options for the Cubs.
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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are nearing a deal to re-sign John Grabow. Rosenthal says the deal could be for two years. It could also be for 100 years, but probably not.
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The GM meetings end today. Will Milton Bradley be traded? More tomorrow…
