As we all endure the final day of the All-Star break – a day I personally hate – let’s take a look at the Cubs season so far in 2009.

First, let me preface what I am going to say by stating that although I am a glass-is-half-full kind of guy, I am not a cock-eyed optimist.  What does that mean?  Well, it means that I tend to be optimistic and positive most of the time, but I also see a hopeless situation for what it is.  I may be positive, but I’m not completely unrealistic.

Having said that, I think the Cubs are in a fairly good position heading into the second half of the season.  True, they are just .500 (43-43) so far this year.  It’s also true that they have played some really bad baseball during the first half of the year.  Even so, I think there is cause for optimism.

The Cubs got good pitching during the first half of the year, but their hitting stunk.  According to David Pinto at Baseball Musings, the Cubs are 4th in the NL in team ERA and 2nd in strikeouts per 9 innings, but they are 14th (out of 16) in Runs per game and batting average.  They’re 13th in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage.

The loss of Aramis Ramirez to a dislocated/strained/sprained shoulder early in the year didn’t help matters any.  Whether it was due to his absence or not, both Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley have been horrible this year.  Soriano is hitting just .233/.298/.413 and Bradley is at .243/.379/.381.  Others have been bad as well, including Kosuke Fukudome (.251/.367/.421), Geovany Soto (.230/.336/.396), and Mike Fontenot (.230/.307/.358).  But even with the Cubs poor offensive performance in the first half, they still have a record of 43-43 and sit just 3.5 games behind division leading St. Louis.  I would prefer that the Cubs led the division by a substantial distance, but considering how they played, things aren’t too bad.

So what has to happen in the second half for the Cubs to win the division?  First, the Cubs need to start hitting.  Ramirez is back and hopefully he picks up right where he left off.  Soriano and Bradley are bound to start hitting, aren’t they?  They’ve never hit this poorly for a full season before in their careers, so I expect them to come back to somewhere near their career numbers.  Derrick Lee has already started to come around, so hopefully some of the other Cubs (like Fukudome, Fontenot, Soto, Ryan Theriot, Reed Johnson, etc) can contribute.

The pitching staff also needs to stay stout.  The starters have been very good, but Rich Harden continues to struggle with his velocity and Ryan Dempster just went on the DL with a broken toe.  If the Cubs pick up the recently released B.J. Ryan, expect to see Sean Marshall back in the starting rotation.

I’d also like to see the Cubs get serious about obtaining a topline starter.  I know the sale of the team may be throwing a monkey wrench into those efforts, but it looks like teams are willing to part  with some of their front of the rotation pitchers.  Names like Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Eric Bedard, and Jake Peavy (on the DL) have been floated out there.  These types of pitchers can help the Cubs this year, and guys like Halladay and Peavy could be longer term investments.  The starters have carried the team up until now, but the rotation needs to be shored up.

Of course, this type of talk may be moot.  If the Cubs aren’t allowed to take on additional payroll, then Jim Hendry’s hands are tied.  Also, do the Cubs have the prospects that would be needed to get a Halladay or a Peavy?  I’m not sure.  The farm system is improving, but is still not considered one of the best.

A lot of other teams are looking for bullpen help, but the Cubs are fairly well set.  Marmol and Gregg have been good (but not great) in the eighth and ninth innings, Marshall has worked well as a LOOGY (although he is capable of more), and adding B.J. Ryan is a low risk/high reward scenario.  Aaron Heilman bugs me, but he hasn’t been horrible.  And the cast of “others” (including David Patton) have done okay as well.  I can see some tweaking with the bullpen, but not a full overhaul.

The two teams the Cubs are chasing, the Cardinals and Brewers, have weaknesses of their own.  The Brewers pitching is their achilles heel and it’s questionable whether or not they’ll be able to do anything about it. 

The Cardinals pitching has overachieved so far this year.  Can they continue to pitch as well as they have?  Only time will tell.  Their offense lives and dies with Albert Pujols.  Can he continue to stay healthy and carry the team?  Again, only time will tell, but the point is that both St. Louis and Milwaukee have weaknesses that could derail their playoff hopes.  If the Cubs can start playing up to their potential at the same time that St. Louis and/or Milwaukee starts to falter, it could mean some very good things for the Cubs.

The bottom line for the Cubs is that they already have the talent and potential to win the division.  They just need to start realizing that potential.  Even without a Cardinal or Brewer collapse, the Cubs should be able to catch the division leaders.  And if they can improve their roster even slightly, all the better.

So as a glass-is-half-full kind of guy, I like the Cubs chances to still win the division.  Of course the usual caveat applies:  If they can stay healthy and play up to their potential, they should be fine.