“I don’t know who is starting that (rumor that Bradley is going to return to the Cubs in 2010), but the Cubs are working to trade Bradley. Milton has been with how many teams over the years? That means he’s worked with about that many hitting coaches. So sooner or later, the Cubs might hire somebody who might have worked with Bradley at some point. The imminent hiring of Jaramillo is in no way related to mending fences with Bradley…But once again, don’t look for Milton back with the Cubs.”

As you know, I trust Bruce’s opinion.  If he says Bradley is leaving, then I believe Bradley is leaving.  But where will he end up?  One of Bruce’s readers suggested Cincinnati in exchangfe for Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang.  The reader opined that Dusty Baker might be able to control Bradley.  Bruce disagreed:

“As to other teams, I had not heard the Reds. A few years ago at the winter meetings, I got a tip that Dusty had met with Milton when Dusty was still the Cubs manager. I’ve heard even Dusty came away with doubts about Milton, and Dusty would seem to be the perfect guy to handle him.”

I never thought that Cincinnati would be a good trading partner for the Cubs on Bradley to begin with.  Bruce just strengthened my belief.

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One of the reasons that has been given to back up the “Milton is staying rumor” is the Cubs’ interest in Rudy Jaramillo becoming the team’s hitting coach.  Jaramillo was the hitting coah for Texas in 2008 when Bradley had the best year of his career.

What is less remembered is that Jaramillo was also the hitting coach when Alfonso Soriano was with the Rangers in 2004-05.   In 2004, Soriano hit .280/.324/.484 with 28 homeruns and 98 RBI.  In 2005 he hit .268/.309/.512 with 36 homeruns and 104 RBI.   It’s been reported that Soriano had a great relationship with Jaramillo and has been very positive about reuniting with him.  

According to Jon Heyman at SportsIllustrated.com:

“Rudy Jaramillo will be the perfect choice as hitting coach for the Cubs. He is expected to sign a multiyear deal for about $800,000 a year, which would make him easily the sport’s best-paid hitting coach. Not only is he a highly respected hitting coach, but he got great results in Texas with both Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley (though Bradley won’t be back if the Cubs can figure out where to send him).”

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Is Starlin Castro the Cubs shorstop of the future?  There’s a really good chance he is, but when might he make it to the big leagues?  Carrie Muskat from MLB.com says it could be as early as next year.

He was drafted by the Cubs in 2006 out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16-years old.  He played Rookie B all in 2008 and showed so much promised that the Cubs promoted him to high-A ball in Daytona in 2009.  Again, he excelled and was moved to Double A in the middle of the 2009 season.  At Double-A, in only his second professional season, Castro hit .288 and impressed everyone who saw him play.  Now, he is the youngest player in the Arizona Fall League and is currently hitting .500.

Even though he’s only 19-years old, Cubs minor league infield coordinator Frankin Font thinks he almost ready for the big time.  Castro feels like sometime next year will be his time to shine with the Cubs.  Dave Keller, Cubs minor league hitting instructor agrees.

“He’s a very confident kid, but not arrogant,” andKeller said. “For him, it’s just a matter of getting repetitions.”

So what does that mean for the Cubs this off season?   The Cubs have said that they are happy with Ryan Theriot at shortstop and are more insterested in finding a second baseman than they are in replacing Theriot.  However, Castro fast ascent may alter those plans.  Could the Cubs move Theriot over to second and then bring in a one-year fill-in type shortstop?  Miguel Tejada maybe?  Could Andres Blanco play short for a year and hold the spot for Castro?  Does Theriot have a future with the Cubs now that both Blanco and Castro are waiting in the wings?  All good questions.  Unfortunately, there are no answers, at least not yet.

I personally like the idea of Ryan Theriot moving over to second.  Blanco has impressed with the glove everywhere he has been.  The good news is he’s starting to show some promise with the bat now that he is 100% healthy.  I think I’d rather the Cubs give him a shot in 2010 instead of bringing in a free agent on a one-year contract.  Whatever they do, it sure is a nice change to have options at shortstop.

Now let me throw a wet blanket on the whole party.  Even if Castro can play at the big league level next year, should he?  He’s only 19-years old.  What’s the rush?  I understand that it is exciting that the Cubs have a legit shortstop prospect, but why fast track him?  Give him the time to learn his craft and grow into his body.  Let him get stronger and add a little power to his game.  Give him another year or two in the minors and make absolutely sure that he is ready for the big stage.  Then, when he is ready, bring him up and give him every opportunity to succeed.

The Cubs are currently 5.0 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and 3.5 back of the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race.  Five games behind in the division seems like a lot, but one good series for the Cubs and one bad one for the Cardinals could turn this thing around.  I hope I’m not being a cock-eyed optimist. 

Over the next couple of weeks, the only opponent the Cubs face that is over .500 is the Dodgers.  Otherwise, the Cubs face the Padres, the Nationals, the Mets and the Astros.  Let’s see who the Cardinals face.  D’oh!  With the exception of the Mets, the Cardinals face the same teams that the Cubs do, just in a different order.  We’ll there’s a good idea gone out the window.

It could still happen, but I don’t want to look foolish trying to explain it.

UPDATE: Ryno over at The Cub Reporter (comment #37) must have been thinking the same thing I was thinking when he did this research.  According to Ryno, the winning percentage of the opponents the Cubs face the rest of the season is .475.  The Cardinals opponents have a .482 winning percentage.  Not really much of a difference.

The bottom line is this: The Cubs have to find a way to gain 5.0 games (or more) on the Cardinals in the final 50 or so games of the season.  They can’t afford to lose any series and they have to hope that the Cardinals stumble at some point.  They’ll get started on this quest tonight in San Diego while the Cardinals take on the Dodgers in LA.

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Midnight tonight is the deadline for signing draft picks.  The Cubs have signed all of their draft picks, but top drafts choice Stephen Strasburg remains unsigned.  I read two different reports, one saying the Nats had offered $17.0 million and another one saying the offer was actually $12.0 million.  In either case, the offer would be the highest in the history of baseball (for a Rule 4 draft pick).

Scott Boras has insisted that Strasburg is a once-in-a-generation pitcher and that his client deserves $50 million.  Of course, it is Boras’ style to ask for the moon and settle for the stars, but $50 million?  That’s nearly five times to amount the Cubs paid Mark Prior in 2001.  That amount stands as the current highest ever for a Rule 4 draft pick.

Ultimately, Strasburg is in charge of these negotiations and the onus is on him to accept or decline Washington’s offer.  As much as Boras may want to shoot for the moon, it’s up to Strasburg to bring him back to Earth.

There’s one angle to this story that I’ve had in my mind, but I haven’t seen it reported anywhere.  Strasburg may be the best, most can’t miss, prospect ever taken in the MLB draft, but he’s not bigger than the game itself.  So Strasburg has to walk a fine line of maximizing his pay day without disrespecting the game.

To be a little clearer, I expect Washington to offer Strasburg in the neighborhood of $20 million, nearly twice the previous record.  If Strasburg walks away from that amount of money, in my opinion, he is making himself bigger than the game.  He’s saying that he is worth more than twice as much what any other player in the history of the game is worth and that he would rather play in Japan or in an independent league for a pittance than to play in MLB for $20 million.  That would not sit well with me and it would not set well with most fans.

Assuming the Nats do offer Strasburg anywhere near $20 million, I don’t think there is anyone that would then point the finger at them and suggest that they did not negotiate in good faith.  At or near $20 million, then the burden to shifts to Strausburg to get the deal done. 

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John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the Reds should not do anything in the off season because the needs are too great and the money is too little.  I think Fay is correct, which raises the obvious question, what was the thinking behind the Scott Rolen acquisition? 

With Cincinnati having so many needs, but no ability (or willingness) to spend more money, why would they take on an additional $10 million +/- financial burden in Rolen.  Sure, he’s an upgrade over what the team previously had at third.  but couldn’t that $10 million have been put to better use in the off season?

I thought that the Reds were going to be a force to be reckoned with when Walt Jocketty became their GM.  Jocketty had done an admirable job in St. Louis and I assumed he would do the same in Cincinnati.  But so far, the moves he has made have not been admirable.  He’s tinkered around the edges and then suddenly made a huge, but questionable acquisition in Rolen. 

The Reds currently have a payroll of around $74 million.  About $43.5 million of that is tied up in just four players; Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Rolen (assuming Rolen’s full 2009 salary).  In 2010, the payroll is likely to remain the same, but the four highest paid players will take up $46.5 million.  That’s about 63% of the entire budget tied up in just four players.  That’s not a formula for success.

Granted, three of those contracts were signed pre-Jocketty, but he’s certainly not helping things by trading for Rolen.  From the outside, it appears that the Reds really don’t have a plan and their just flailing.  Fay, who has a much closer seat to the action, apparently feels the same way.

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John Smoltz was officially released and will be free to sign with another team on Wednesday when he clears release waivers.  According to Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins and Rangers all have interest.  Why aren’t the Cubs on that list?  Can anyone seriously argue that Smoltz wouldn’t make the Cubs bullpen better?

The one sticking point to my argument is that the Dodgers may want Smoltz to start.  They lost another pitcher to injury over the weekend when Hiroki Kuroda was hit in the head by a line drive.  So if Smoltz has his heart set on starting, the Dodgers may be the only team that can accommodate him. 

If the only offers available are for bullpen assignments, then the Cubs should definitely be in the mix.  Hopefully, Jim Hendry is just laying low until Smoltz can actually sign elsewhere.

Carlos Zambrano started the game for the Cubs, but only pitched 3.0 innings when he left the game with a stiff back.  According to Z, he wasn’t injured, but noticed that his arm slot had dropped because of the stiff back.  Rather than risk injury, Lou Piniella opted to pull him from the game.

After Lee hit his homerun in the top of the 10th, Nunez hit Aramis Ramirez on the left bicep with a pitch.  Ramirez, who was 2-for-5 with a double, three RBI and a run scored, appeared to be fine.  He moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, but then came out of the game complaining of dizziness and nausea.  After the game, Pinella said Ramirez was fine.

The annoying thing for me was that the Cubs got out to a 6-0 lead, but the Cubs pitching couldn’t hold the lead.  Zambrano gave up two earned runs before leaving the game, and then Jeff Samardzija and Kevin Gregg gave up three earned runs each to allow Florida to tie the game.  Thankfully, the offense was able to bail out the pitching.  Of course, considering how the first half of the year went, that’s probably a nice change.

The final game of the series will be today against the Marlins.  Ryan Dempster (5-5), who didn’t look good in his last outing, will take on former Cub farmhand Ricky Nolasco (7-7) in a late afternoon affair at Land Shark Stadium (I can never get used to that name).

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In my wrap up of the trade deadline, I criticized JP Ricciardi for not being more realistic about the trade value of Roy Halladay.  In particular, I said that Ricciardi was “deluded” for thinking that Halladay would bring more in the off season than teams were willing to pay at the trade deadline.  A couple of friends challenged my thinking on this, saying that teams would have more payroll flexibility in the off season than they have now, so they’ll be able to afford to pay more for Halladay then than they can now.

Although there may be a team or two that will have the financial flexibilty to add Halladay after the season that couldn’t afford him in July (the Cubs may be one of them), I think the bigger issue is what teams were willing to give up in prospects for Halladay.  If a team had traded for Halladay in July, they could have used him in 2009 as well as 2010.  If they trade for him in the off season, they’ll only be able to use him in 2010.  So which is worth more, a pennant drive and a full season of Roy Halladay, or just a full season?  To me, the answer is obvious. 

Think of it this way.  I’m really thirsty right now and you have a case of water you want to sell.  Is the water more valuable to me now when I am super thirsty or is it more valuable next year when I might be thirsty?  Okay, it’s not a perfect analogy, but I think you get the point.  Teams needed Halladay this year to make the final push to the playoffs.  He would still be nice to acquire in the off season, but the urgency won’t be nearly as strong as it is now.

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Rob McQuown at Baseball Prospectus has some thoughts on the Scott Rolen trade to Cincinnati.  McQuown really likes Rolen and lays out a good case why Rolen is an affordable (at $10 million) and talented option at third for the Reds.  If the trade had been Edwin Encarnacion for Rolen, the Reds would have gotten the better end of that deal.  But by including highly regarded prospects Josh Roenieke and Zach Stewart, McQuown thinks that Walt Jocketty made the worst trade of any GM at the trade deadline.

While I agree with McQuown’s perspective, I think the bigger issue is how Rolen’s contract will hamstring the Reds from improving their team next year.  Let’s face it, the Reds aren’t going to compete this year.  They had a decent first half, but they’ve been fading ever since.  So improving the team this year wasn’t really much of an issue.  The more important issue is improving the team in the future.  And to do that, Jocketty is going to need some payroll flexibility.  Adding Scott Rolen to the roster makes the Reds a better team, but severely ties Jocketty’s hands to address the many other issues the team has.

John Fay at the Cincinnati Enquirer makes this exact point on his blog.  Fay believes that the acquisition of Rolen has forced Jocketty’s hand and the Reds will  now have to move the contracts of Aaron Harang, Francisco Cordereo, and/or Bronson Arroyo.  Without moving one or more of these contracts, the Reds will be unable to address their other needs. 

What Fay doesn’t say is that other teams are going to be loathe to give up much for any of these pitchers.  So the Reds are in the position of having to move these players, but because they have to move them, the Reds don’t have any leverage to insist on getting quality back in return.

By the way, for what it’s worth, Toronto will be paying the remaining $4 million owed to Rolen this year.  The Cardinals will be paying the $4 million bonus that is owed to Rolen in 2010. 

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Here are two good articles regarding the Jake Peavy trade.  David Cameron from Fangraphs posted a column on Cory Brock’s blog detailing why he liked the trade for the Padres.  Scott Miller from CBSSports.com gives his opinion on why the White Sox made a good trade.  While I agree with both writers, I think this trade will be remembered for the White Sox getting Jake Peavy.  The guys going from the Sox to the Padres may turn out to be valuable pieces, but it will be Peavy going to the White Sox that will be remembered.

Also, in Miller’s piece, Peavy says that he will be back this year to pitch.  There was some concern about Peavy not being ready untilm next year.  If Peavy can still pitch this year, Kenny Williams made an even better trade.

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The San Diego Padres are expected to release Mark Prior today.  Prior signed a minor league deal with the club in the off season and could have earned $1 million had he made it to the big team.  MLB Trade Rumors has the details.  It’s just another sad chapter in a career that has had many more ups than downs.

Ryan Theriot went 3-5 and scored two runs, while Aramis Ramizez was 2-4 with a double, two runs scored and two driven in.

After an off day Thursday, the Cubs come home to take on the Cincinnati Reds in a weekend series at Wrigley.  Aaron Harang (5-10) takes on Randy Wells (5-4) on Friday.  Cubs.com says Ted Lilly will go on Saturday.  It will be interesting to see if his knee is ready for another start.

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According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs are not in on Roy Halladay, but they may be in the market for a reliever.  Wittenmyer mentions George Sherrill of the Orioles and Chad Qualls of the D-Backs as two possible targets.

The Cubs may also be in the market for a catcher, depending on how Geovany Soto’s rehab is going.  They should know more by the end of this week.  Soto is swinging a bat now and the Cubs hope to have Soto back in the big leagues during the first week of August.  If he has a set back this week, the Cubs may take a look at Toronto’s Rod Barajas.  He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so he’s really nothing more than a short term rental, but that’s exactly what the Cubs need.

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The Cardinals traded Chris Duncan and a player to be named later (or cash) in exchange for SS Julio Lugo.  Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post Dispatch says Lugo is expected to play multiple infield positions, but will likely not start.  Boston will be picking up the remainder of Lugo’s $13.5 million contract.

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Tom Hardicourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Milwaukee is looking for starting pitching and last night they watched Cliff Lee pitch a seven hit complete game against Toronto.  Doug Melvin insists the Brewers are not in on Roy Halladay, but Cliff Lee may fit their needs.  His contract is just $5.75 million in 2009 with an $8 million option for 2010.  Plus, they wouldn’t have to give up as much to the Indians to get Lee as it would to get Halladay from Toronto.