The other two first basemen available via free agency simply don’t fit the bill for the Cubs.  They would be better off re-signing Derrek Lee rather than pursue Berkman.  They are similar players, although Lee is the superior fielder.  Dunn could really help the Cubs offense, but I don’t think the team should give up the defense it would take to get that offense.

Then I turned my attention to the trade market.  The two players potentially available via trade that I discussed were San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau.  I honestly don’t know if the Cubs have the players it would take to make either of these trades, but I think it is worth investigating.

What I didn’t mention in the previous post is that the Cubs have some internal candidates they are going to have to  look at to determine who will be playing first base for the team in the future.

First on the list is the incumbent, Derrek Lee.  Lee is currently 35-years old and his slow start to the 2010 season may be an indication that age is starting to catch up with him.  I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but it could be.  Despite Lee’s offensive production during his time with the Cubs and his great defense, it seems to me that the Cubs should move in a different direction.  He may have a couple of good years left in him, but two good years on a four or five year contract is not a good deal.

Another candidate for first base is current left fielder Alfonso Soriano.  I’m fairly certain that moving Soriano to first base would not be the Cubs preferred choice, but it may turn into a necessity.  Soriano has already showed signs of slowing down in the outfield and his defensive ability in left seems to have regressed this year.  And remember, Soriano started his career as a second baseman.  He wasn’t a particularly good second baseman, but first base does not require the same level of foot work and dexterity that is required of a middle infielder.

It’s also important to remember that Soriano has five years left on a virtually untradeable contract.  He’ll be around for another four years beginning in 2011 making $18 million per year, so the Cubs have to figure out what to do with him.  With a possible opening at first base in 2011, Soriano may become the Cubs first baseman of the future.

Aramis Ramirez is another player the Cubs might consider for first base.  Of course, that assumes that Ramirez either doesn’t opt out of his contract at the end of this season, or if he does, that the Cubs can re-sign him.  If he is still with the club in 2011, the Cubs might consider moving him to first base in order to give highly touted prospect Josh Vitters an opening at third.

On the other hand, perhaps Vitters, who has struggled with the glove at third, could be converted into a first baseman.  There has been a lot of talk about moving Vitters to a different position, so maybe he’ll end up at first.  Another option is for Vitters to move to left field, a position that could be open if Soriano is moved to first.

Finally, the only prospect the Cubs currently have in the minors that is considered a first baseman is Micah Hoffpauir.  He’s not a flashy candidate, but he is cheap.  My own opinion is that Hoffpauir does not have a future with the Cubs.  He’s out of minor league options following this season and I don’t see him coming back with the Cubs in 2011.  However, if the Cubs decide to save money on first base next year and spend it elsewhere (or not spend it at all), Hoffpauir is one in-house candidate that is also inexpensive.

The 2011 season is too far away to make any real educated predictions about who might end up at first base for the Cubs.  But it does seem likely that change will be afoot and the Cubs will have a new first baseman next year.  Who that will be is anybody’s guess.

I think this contract extention is crazy.  At the moment, Howard is 30 years old and is already showing signs of aging.  In the field, he’s average at best, although that may be giving him too much credit.  At the plate, he strikes out more than he walks by a ratio of 2:1 and the trend is creeping even higher.  He is a notoriously bad hitter against left-handed pitchers and he has trouble handling breaking balls and off-speed pitches.  On the base paths, he has never been speedy, but it appears that he has lost a step in recent years.  Does this sound like the type of player you’d want to pay more than $20 million per year until he’s 36 or 37?

It appears to me that the Phillies shot themselves in the foot by signing Howard to such a ridiculous extention.  If that was all they did, I wouldn’t really care.  But what the extention also did was set the bar ridiculously high for every mediocre first baseman out there.  And my main concern is what the Cubs will have to pay to get a top notch first baseman after Derrek Lee’s contract expires at the end of this season.

The way the Cubs roster is structured currently (and into the foreseeable future), they need to have a first baseman who can hit with power.  Over the past several years, Lee has done a good job of providing that power.  He has averaged 31 homeruns per year since joining the Cubs, not including 2006 when he was injured most of the year and only played in 50 games.

However, Lee will be 35 years old in September and his stats are likely to start falling off.  I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on what he has done thus far in 2010, but the fact is that he’s hitting below .200 at the moment and is really struggling at the plate.  I’m confident that he’ll bounce back and have a decent season this year, but moving forward, I think the Cubs want to go in a different, younger direction. 

There are a few guys I could see the Cubs having interest in.  Adrian Gonzalez is a top-of-the-mind candidate.  He’s going to get very expensive once his contract is up, and all indications are that San Diego will not retain him.  Instead, they will likely want to trade him in exchange for some top prospects.  The Cubs farm system is in good shape, so a trade is possible.

Gonzalez is signed through the end of this season and the Padres hold a $5.5 million contract for next year that will certainly be exercised.  But what will his contract demand past 2011 be?  Howard will be earning $20-$25 million per year beginning in 2012.  The Yankees’ Mark Teixeira will be earning $22.5 million.  Miguel Cabrera will make $21 million a year beginning in 2012.  Gonzalez will likely want to make as much as these guys.

Who are the free agents on the horizon?  At the top of the list is Albert Pujols.  I don’t see any way the Cardinals don’t sign Pujols to an extention.  In the very least they will exercise their $16 million option for him in 2012.  The price tag for an extention will likely be in the $30 million per year range.  Of course, if Pujols is available, you have to go after him.

Lance Berkman will also be a free agent at the end of this season.  The Astros hold a $15 million option on him for 2012 and my guess is that they’ll exercise it.  But even if they don’t, would the Cubs be any better off signing Berkman than they would be working out an extention with Lee?  They are both the same age (Lee is five months older) and have similar skill sets.  I think Lee is the superior fielder.  So what would be the point of letting Lee walk and then signing Berkman?  I don’t think it makes sense.

What about Adam Dunn.  I think Dunn, who is 31,  gets a bad rap because he is a poor fielder and strikes out a lot.  But the fact is that the guy can hit.  He gets on base (career .383 OBP) and he hits with power.  He had at least 40 home runs every year from 2004-2008.  He fell just short of that mark in 2009 by hitting 38 home runs.

Dunn is currently making $12 million in Washington and will likely be looking for a long term contract in the $15 – $20 million range.  Considering Howard’s extention, it will probably be at the high end of that range.  Does Dunn make sense for the Cubs?  Personally, I don’t think so.  The Cubs need a first baseman who is at least an average fielder.  Dunn falls short of that mark. 

There is no one else in the upcoming free agent class that would fit the bill for the Cubs.  Could a trade be worked out for a first baseman?  I already mentioned Gonzalez.  Who else might be available?  I’ve had my eye on the Twins Justin Morneau.  He’s 29 years old and he’s signed to a reasonable contract.  He is signed through 2013 at just $14 million per year (beginning in 2011).  But why would the Twins want to part with the 2006 AL MVP?

The truth is that they might not.  However, a case can be made that they may be looking to move a contract or two.  First, the Twins recently signed catcher Joe Mauer to an 8-year/$184 million contract that starts in 2011.  That’s a lot of money for a team that traditionally has a smaller payroll.  Might they try to save some money by moving some of their bigger contracts in exchange for prospects?

Also, the Twins currently have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and one way they could relieve the logjam is by trading Morneau and moving Michael Cuddyer to first base.  Why wouldn’t they just trade Cuddyer?  Because he makes less than Morneau and his contract is up after the 2011 season.  Trading Morneau and retaining Cuddyer would give the Twins more flexibility and more financial breathing room.

The Cubs are going to have a big decision to make at the end of this season (or maybe earlier).  Should they re-sign Lee, sign a free agent, or make a trade.  With Ryan Howard’s extention, the price of poker just went up.

One of my favorite things is the changing color of the leaves.  Nature’s art show is spectacular.  There’s nothing better than sitting outside on the back porch or down at the lake, enjoying a cool beverage, and taking in the fall colors.  Fall really is a great time of year.

And yet, the fall is a sad time of year for baseball fans.  Baseball’s regular season is coming to a close.  The playoffs are exciting, but they also represent the end to another great season.  And on this, the final day of the regular season, we are counting the time until Spring Training in months rather than weeks or days.

The Cubs won’t be participating in the postseason this year, which is a shame.   And yet, those on us who have been alive for the past two seasons (2007-2008) were treated to back-to-back postseason appearances.  No one under the age of 100 can say the same thing.  Let’s hope that we can see the Cubs back in the postseason soon.

As we head into the postseason, we know that the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox will continue playing.  The Tigers and Twins are tied in the AL Central, so depending on today’s results, we may have a one-game playoff tomorrow.

In the NL, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies, and Rockies will vy for the chance to represent the NL in the World Series.  It is an exciting time, but I’m going to miss following the Cubs.

Just four more months until Spring Training… 

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Phil Rogers of the Tribune has listed ten different players that could fill the “middle-of-the-order” bat that Lou Piniella said he wants.  Before he lists his candidates, Rogers has to first blast Jim Hendry for signing Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley to fill the void, both failing rather spectacularly.  I don’t have the best memory, but I don’t think anyone claimed that Fukudome was a “big bat” who would fit in the middle of the order.  However, Rogers point about Bradley is well taken.

There are a few names that intrigue me.  I could see Bobby Abreau or Rick Ankiel as possibile solutions.  But the guy that most intrigues me is Adam Dunn.

I have to admit, if you had asked me a couple of weeks ago about adding Adam Dunn to the Cubs, I would have been opposed to it.  But after going through the last two posts (Redefining Production Part 1 and Part 2), I have a new found respect for Dunn.  True, he’s not the most gifted fielder.  He also strikes out a lot.   But there are only a handful of players in the game that contribute more to their team scoring runs.  And as we established previously, the most important attribute in the game is scoring runs.

Rogers also lists Mark DeRosa as a possible bat to add to the Cubs 2010 lineup.  I really like Mark DeRosa and I was critical of Jim Hendry for trading him last offseason.  He’s a guy who leaves it all out on the field and is a great clubhouse guy.  In fact, he was one of the leaders of the Cubs playoff teams.  Even so, I’m afraid that ship has sailed.  DeRosa is going to be a free agent after this season.  He is also going to be 35-years old and is scheduled to have wrist surgery in the off season.  Not a good combination.  It pains me to say it, but I don’t think DeRosa is the solution to the Cubs’ needs.

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Check out these two clips from the Seattle Mariners radio network.  Mike Blowers makes an amazing prediction that actually comes true.

Enjoy!