Derrek Lee continued his hot hitting going 7-9 in the series with the Dodgers.  In the first game of the series, Lee drove in all threre of the Cubs runs on an RBI single and a two-run homer.  Lee has now pushed his season hitting line up to .246/.352/.391 with 6 homeruns and 23 RBI.

The Cubs pitching was also very good during the three-game set with the Dodgers.  The Cubs staff managed to shut out LA in the two Cubs victories and only gave up 8 hits in the those two games.  Dempster got the victory in game one and Ted Lilly was credited with the win in game two.

However, not everything is peaches and cream for the Cubs.  First, Aramis Ramirez is suffering from an injured thumb and missed the series with LA.  He had a cortisone shot on Thursday and it is hoped that he is ready for the first game of the series with the Cardinals on Friday at Wrigley.  But even getting Ramirez back in the line-up is not such a great thing.  He is hitting just .160/.225/.269 on the year and he has not shown any signs of breaking out of his season-long slump.

Carlos Zambrano was taken to the hospital yesterday after complaining of severe stomach pain.  Doctors feared he was suffering from appendicitis, but tests came back negative.  There was no word on what may have caused his lower intestinal discomfort nor when he might be ready to play again.

Jeff Baker got the start at third base on Thursday, but had to leave the game in the eighth inning when he completely lost sight in his right eye.  That according to Carrie Muskat on MLB.com via Twitter.  I’m no doctor, but that sounds pretty serious.  Let’s hope it is nothing too bad and that Baker regains sight in his right eye very soon.

UPDATE: Jeff Baker saw the Cubs opthamologist following yesterday’s game and was diagnosed with an ocular migraine.  The report I read didn’t say if his vision had returned or if he would be ready to play this weekend.

**********

What a weird year it has been in Major League Baseball.  Just look at the standings.  At the moment, the Reds are in first place in the NL Central with St. Louis trailing by a game.  That’s not a complete shock.  The Reds were picked by some prognosticators before the season to be a pretty good team.  I, on the other hand, said I didn’t think they would be very good and I still expect them to fall off the pace.

In the NL East, although the Phillies are leading the division, only 3.0 games separate the Phils from the last place Nationals.  Atlanta has struggled, but is just 1.5 games back of the Phils, with the Mets pulling into third place, 2.0 games out of first place.

The Padres, who were projected to be the worst (or at least one of the worst) team(s) in the NL currently have the best record in the league.  Heading into the weekend, they have a record of 28-19  and lead the NL West.  The Dodgers are 2.0 games behind the Padres and the Rockies are 3.0 back.

In the AL East, most people thought Tampa Bay would be good, but I’m not sure they thought the Rays would be as good as they have been so far this year.  With a record of 33-15, they are 4.5 games ahead of the Yankees and 6.5 games up on the third place Red Sox.  Even Toronto, who started quick out of the gate, has a record of 27-22.  With that record, the Blue Jays could be leading either the AL Central or West.

In the AL Central, Minnesota leads the division by 1.5 games over Detroit.  The White Sox, who are seven games under .500, are in third place, followed by the Royals and the hapless Indians.

The AL West is all topsy turvy.  Most “experts” thought the AL West would be a race between the Angels and the Mariners.  At the moment, the Angels and Mariners are fighting it out for third place in the division.  LA is 23-26 while Seattle has a record of 18-28.  The class of the division at the moment is the Texas Rangers who sport a 26-21 record.  They are currently 1.5 games up on Oakland.

I’m sticking by the picks I made earlier in the year.  Even so, I have to admit that the way that some teams are playing — both good and bad — has been a surprise.  I guess that why they bother to play the games.

The bad news will take a little longer to explain.  Let’s start by pointing out that the Pittsburgh Pirates have not had a winning season in their last 18 seasons.  They are one of the most poorly run franchises in all of baseball.  And despite the fact that they say they have a plan for the future, the truth is that they don’t have a plan.  Or more accurately, they do have a plan, but it’s not the plan they say they have.  Let me explain.

Pittsburgh claims that they can not compete by spending money on their big league team.  So they spend less on their big league payroll than they receive in revenue sharing money.  They also routinely trade away their most promising players because they claim they can’t afford them after a few years.  The Pirates claim that their plan is to trade their best players for prospects, and they will build their franchise on less expensive prospects.  However, this plan doesn’t make sense.  As prospects develop, they become more expensive.  They get paid more through arbitration the better they play.  And when they get better, the Pirates trade away these players for prospects, and the wheel continues to turn.  That is the real plan the Pirates are following.  Their plan is to keep their payroll low, keep losing, and continue to pocket the money the team receives in revenue sharing.  It wouldn’t be a popular plan if they were honest about it, so they claim they have a completely different plan. 

So, the Pirates are poorly run, perpetual losers, and they routinely are among the teams with the lowest payroll.  In 2010, they have the league’s absolute lowest payroll.  To give you an idea of how low Pittsburgh’s payroll is, let’s compare it to the Cubs payroll.  Both teams are in the NL Central, yet the Cubs out spend the Pirates by more than $100 million.  The Cubs 2010 payroll is $146 million.  The Pirates spend a cool $35 million.

Despite the difference in their payrolls, yesterday’s victory by the Cubs was just the first win the Cubs have earned in six tries this year against the Pirates.  In fact, with a record of 16-22 on the season, the Cubs find themselves in 4th place in the NL Central behind the Reds, Cardinals, and the pathetic Pittsburgh Pirates.

I find this fact absolutely amazing.  How is it possible that entering yesterday’s game, the Pirates had beaten the Cubs in five straight games?  How is it possible that midway through May, the Cubs are trailing the hapless Pirates in the standings?  How is it that a team like the Pirates that spend less than 25% as much on payroll as the Cubs do can so thoroughly outplay them?

I don’t have answers to any of these questions.  I am just stunned by the fact that, despite how poorly the Pirates are run and how little they spend on player payroll, they have made the Cubs look sick all season.

Maybe we’re getting to the point where we have to accept that the Cubs are just not a good baseball team.  While the Cubs have five everyday players who are hitting over .300 (plus Starlin Castro who is hitting .323), they still have trouble scoring runs.  This is due in large part to the fact that Derrek Lee just raised his batting average to .238 and Aramis Ramirez is stuck below the Mendoza line at .167.  Despite these anemic numbers, Lee and Ramirez continue to bat third and fourth respectively in the lineup.

Rob G. at The Cubs Reporter did an interesting study in which he found that as of this past Thursday, Ramirez and Lee lead the Cubs in runners left on base this season.  In 141 plate appearances, Ramirez has left 104 runners on base.  Lee has come to the plate 154 times and has left 103 runners on base. 

How long should Lou Piniella allow Lee and Ramirez to continue to bat in the middle of the lineup?  I understand allowing a guy to try to work his way out of a slump, but how long can the Cubs afford to wait?  Perhaps Lee has turned a corner.  He is hitting a bit better as of late.  However, Ramirez has just been horrible.  He claims that he is healthy, but he does not look good at the plate.

We’re only a month-and-a-half into the season, but it’s already been a long year for the Cubs.  Losing five-out-of-six so far to the Pirates this year is just one symptom of the problem, albeit a horribly embarrassing symptom.  Trailing the Pirates in the standings should be enough to light a fire under the Cubs.  Unfortunately, nothing has been able to light that fire so far this year.  And that really is bad news.

The Cubs loss in Cincinnati was eerily similar to the loss I watched them suffer at the hands of the Braves earlier this year.  Ryan Dempster started both games for the Cubs.  He pitched very well in both games.  Leading 3-2 in the 8th in Atlanta, Dempster gave up a double to rookie phenom Jason Heyward.  Lou Pinella pulled him out of the game and replaced him with John Grabow.  The first hitter Grabow faced was Chipper Jones.  Jones promptly hit a home run and the Braves won the game 4-3.

Dempster pitched even better today.  He had only given up three hits as the game moved into the 7th inning and the Cubs were winning 3-2.  Two hitters reached base with first baseman Joey Votto due up and two outs.  Piniella visited the mound, just as he did in Atlanta, but this time he left Dempster in the game.  I mentioned at the time that it was obvious that Piniella did not trust the bullpen.  On Dempster’s very first pitch to Votto, the young first baseman hit a mammoth blast into the right center field seats to give the Reds a 5-3 lead.  They went on to win the game by the same score.

The Cubs could only muster four hits off of Reds starter Mike Leake.  One of those hits was a two-run home run by Tyler Colvin, who started the game in left field to give Alfonso Soriano a day off.  Koyie Hill also started, giving Geovany Soto a rest. 

I know that players need a day off once in a while, but coming into Sunday’s game, the Cubs had lost four of the five games they had played during the road trip.  Wouldn’t it have made sense for the Cubs to have at least one of Soriano or Soto – two of their hottest hitters – in the lineup for their final game of the road trip?  Who knows if it would have made a difference, but I have trouble accepting removing two of the team’s best hitters from the lineup at the same time while the Cubs are having trouble scoring runs.

Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez continue to struggle at the plate.  Lee was 0-4 while Ramirez got a hit in his final at-bat of the game.  Lee is hitting .210 on the year while Ramirez is still below the Mendoza line at .167.

Starlin Castro, AKA the greatest baseball player in the history of the game, was 1-3 with a single.  It was the first game in Castro’s big league career that he has not had at least one extra base hit.  He will make his Wrigley Field debut tomorrow against the Florida Marlins.  God help the Marlins.

The other two first basemen available via free agency simply don’t fit the bill for the Cubs.  They would be better off re-signing Derrek Lee rather than pursue Berkman.  They are similar players, although Lee is the superior fielder.  Dunn could really help the Cubs offense, but I don’t think the team should give up the defense it would take to get that offense.

Then I turned my attention to the trade market.  The two players potentially available via trade that I discussed were San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez and Minnesota’s Justin Morneau.  I honestly don’t know if the Cubs have the players it would take to make either of these trades, but I think it is worth investigating.

What I didn’t mention in the previous post is that the Cubs have some internal candidates they are going to have to  look at to determine who will be playing first base for the team in the future.

First on the list is the incumbent, Derrek Lee.  Lee is currently 35-years old and his slow start to the 2010 season may be an indication that age is starting to catch up with him.  I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but it could be.  Despite Lee’s offensive production during his time with the Cubs and his great defense, it seems to me that the Cubs should move in a different direction.  He may have a couple of good years left in him, but two good years on a four or five year contract is not a good deal.

Another candidate for first base is current left fielder Alfonso Soriano.  I’m fairly certain that moving Soriano to first base would not be the Cubs preferred choice, but it may turn into a necessity.  Soriano has already showed signs of slowing down in the outfield and his defensive ability in left seems to have regressed this year.  And remember, Soriano started his career as a second baseman.  He wasn’t a particularly good second baseman, but first base does not require the same level of foot work and dexterity that is required of a middle infielder.

It’s also important to remember that Soriano has five years left on a virtually untradeable contract.  He’ll be around for another four years beginning in 2011 making $18 million per year, so the Cubs have to figure out what to do with him.  With a possible opening at first base in 2011, Soriano may become the Cubs first baseman of the future.

Aramis Ramirez is another player the Cubs might consider for first base.  Of course, that assumes that Ramirez either doesn’t opt out of his contract at the end of this season, or if he does, that the Cubs can re-sign him.  If he is still with the club in 2011, the Cubs might consider moving him to first base in order to give highly touted prospect Josh Vitters an opening at third.

On the other hand, perhaps Vitters, who has struggled with the glove at third, could be converted into a first baseman.  There has been a lot of talk about moving Vitters to a different position, so maybe he’ll end up at first.  Another option is for Vitters to move to left field, a position that could be open if Soriano is moved to first.

Finally, the only prospect the Cubs currently have in the minors that is considered a first baseman is Micah Hoffpauir.  He’s not a flashy candidate, but he is cheap.  My own opinion is that Hoffpauir does not have a future with the Cubs.  He’s out of minor league options following this season and I don’t see him coming back with the Cubs in 2011.  However, if the Cubs decide to save money on first base next year and spend it elsewhere (or not spend it at all), Hoffpauir is one in-house candidate that is also inexpensive.

The 2011 season is too far away to make any real educated predictions about who might end up at first base for the Cubs.  But it does seem likely that change will be afoot and the Cubs will have a new first baseman next year.  Who that will be is anybody’s guess.

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Closer
• What Can You Get For $140 Million? Starting Pitchers

My theory going into this series of posts was that by virtue of having the third highest payroll in all of baseball, the Cubs should have one of the best players at almost every position.   Of those players, two-to-four should be perennial all-stars.

I recognize that having one of the best players in baseball at almost every position is expensive.  That’s why I think a high payroll team still needs to have one or two young, inexpensive players.  However, those players should not just be roster filler.  They may be young and inexpensive, but they should also be extremely good.  An example of such a player would be Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox.  David Wright of the Mets was also this type of player a few years ago.  Geovany Soto may be such a player today, although the jury is still out.

To determine if the Cubs roster meets this criteria, in each post I ranked the Cubs players against the starters from each of the five other highest payroll teams.  Then, I considered whether or not the Cubs player was among the top players at their position.  Here’s how the Cubs players ranked against the players at the same position for the other five highest payroll teams:

• First Base — Derrek Lee (5 out of 6)
• Second Base — Mike Fontenot (6 out of 6)
• Shortstop — Ryan Theriot (4 out of 6)
• Third Base — Aramis Ramirez (3 out of 6)
• Catcher — Geovany Soto (2 out of 6)
• Left Field — Alfonso Soriano (3 out of 6)
• Center Field — Kosuke Fukudome (4 out of 6)
• Right Field — Milton Bradley (4 out of 6)
• Closer — Kevin Gregg (5 out of 6)
• Starting Pitchers — Carlos Zambrano (5 out of 30)

                                    Ted Lilly (12 out of 30)
                                    Rich Harden (13 out of 30)
                                    Ryan Dempster (17 out of 30)                                            
                                    Randy Wells (18 out of 30)

Kind of confusing, isn’t it?  I know.  One of the main reasons is because my hypothesis was wrong.  I thought that comparing the Cubs’ roster to the rosters of the five other highest payroll teams would work because I incorrectly assumed that the other five highest payroll teams would have some of the best players in baseball at each position.  Having looked at every position from each of these teams, it’s obvious that these other five teams do not have one of the top players at each position.  Each of these teams is built differently, but none of the teams has been able to build a starting line-up made up of some of the best players at each position, not even the Yankees.

Although my hypothesis was wrong, I’m not ready to give up on my belief that the third highest spending team in baseball should have some of the top players in the game on their roster.   So, do the Cubs have some of the best players in the game on their roster?

Our research showed that two Cubs, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, were among the best at their position in all of baseball.  Alfonso Soriano was close when he was signed, although he has fallen off recently.  Soriano gets a bad rap from people who are quick to forget what a terrific hitter he was earlier in his career.  If he can regain some of his previous hitting ability, Soriano can still be a top left fielder.

Geovany Soto is a tough call.  Was the 2008 version of Soto the real deal, or was the 2009 version the one we’ll see in the future?  Either way, I can’t fault the Cubs for handing him the starting job in 2008.  He was one of those young, inexpensive players I talked about previously.  It remains to be seen which Soto shows up in 2010.

The Cubs pitching staff also qualifies as among the best in baseball.  The real weakness is that 1) the Cubs don’t have a true ace, and 2) the pitching staff as currently constituted will not be as good in 2010 as it was in 2009.  The loss of Rich Harden and Ted Lilly’s inability to pitch for the first month or more of 2010 will take its toll on the Cubs.

What about the other positions?  Starting Fukudome and Bradley in center and right field respectively was uninspired.  Acquiring Bradley was a clear mistake that forced Fukudome to move from right field, where he was good, to center field, where he wasn’t so good.  Neither player qualifies as one of the best at their position, making the Cubs outfield one of the weakest among contending teams.

Ryan Theriot straddles the line between mediocre and poor among shortstops.  He combines the ability to be nothing special on defense with a below average OPS+.  The Cubs need a top shortstop and Theriot doesn’t qualify.

Mike Fontenot is among the worst second basemen in baseball.  He is not the type of player a club with a $140 million payroll should have in their starting lineup.  Even so, as of this writing, the Cubs appear ready to give Fontenot another shot in 2010, unless Jeff Baker, a more versatile but equally as bad second baseman, can unseat him.

Finally, the Cubs had one of the weaker closers in baseball as their closer in 2009.  There really was nothing in Kevin Gregg’s history that indicated that he could be a top-notch closer.  However, he was relatively inexpensive, so Jim Hendry signed him and hoped for the best. 

As I conducted my analysis, I kept coming back to this last statement.  Jim Hendry has a history of signing players and hoping for the best.  He signed Milton Bradley to be a middle-of-the-order run producer, even though Bradley had never shown the ability to fill that role before.  That fact, and Bradley’s past behavior should have given Hendry pause.  But instead, Hendry signed Bradley and hoped for the best.

He signed Gregg and hoped for the best, despite the fact that there really was no evidence in his past history that indicated that Gregg could be a reliable closer.  It should have been clear that Gregg was not the type of closer a contending team would want on their roster, yet Hendry took the leap of faith.

Finally, there was nothing in Mike Fontenot’s background that should have indicated to anyone that he could be a successful everyday second baseman on a contending team, yet Jim Hendry handed him the job and kept his fingers crossed.  The unnecessary risk back fired badly and he’s done nothing this off season to correct the problem.

The Cubs have not done a good job of spending their money.  They have the third highest payroll in baseball, yet they have a roster that is more reminiscent of a middle-of-the-pack team.   And it’s Jim Hendry’s job to make sure this doesn’t happen.

I’ve been a big supporter of Hendry’s over the years.  However, after taking an in-depth look at the roster, I can’t help but come to the conclusion that he has not done a good job of building this team.  A change in perspective is needed, and I don’t think that change can take place by keeping the same people in their current positions.

The Cubs needed a change in culture a few years ago.  They needed to stop thinking of themselves as small spenders.  They are a large market team with one of the highest revenue sources in the game, and they needed to start acting like one.  That happened under the direction of John McDonough and Jim Hendry.  The Cubs also rebuilt their farm system under the direction of Jim Hendry.

Now, another change is needed.  The Cubs need to view themselves as players for most every big name free agent.  They need to be viewed as a likely destination for top players when they are put on the trading block.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Hendry is the man for the job.  Although he has shown a capacity to trade for players that are being dumped by their current team, he has not shown much ability or willingness to trade his own players or top prospects. 

The Curtis Granderson situation earlier this off season was a good example.  Despite his shortcomings, Granderson is considered one of the top center fielders in baseball.  He would have been a perfect fit for the Cubs.  Even so, Hendry was unwilling to get too deeply involved.  Detroit wanted top prospects in exchange for Granderson.  The Yankees were willing to deal their prospects in exchange for a proven commodity.  Hendry refused to include the Cubs top prospects in any sort of deal.  As he has done in the past, he has deemed some unproven, but highly regarded prospects as untouchable.  This approach cost the Cubs a difference maker in center field and all they have to hang their hats on is the potential of some of their young players.

The botton line to all of this is that the Cubs need to get better.  The need to spend their money to build a perennial contender.  They need to change the way they build their roster.  As much as I like and respect Jim Hendry, I’m not convinced that he’s the guy to make the shift in approach and get the job done.

To catch up on this series of posts (including the intial post where I explain my methodology), visit these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million?
• What Can You Get For $140 million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop

The thing that got me started on this quest is the very distinct feeling I have that, while the Cubs are spending with the big boys, they are not building a team that can compete with the big boys.  In a nutshell, my belief is that with the third highest payroll in Major League Baseball, the Cubs should be able to sign, trade for, or otherwise acquire the top players in the game.  They should be able to build a roster of several all-star caliber players, along with a couple of players that are 1) exceptional at their position, and 2) younger, so they are not yet expensive. 

Today, I’d like to look at third base.  The players I will be analyzing are:

• Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
• David Wright (Mets)
• Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
• Brandon Inge (Tigers)
• Pedro Feliz (Phillies)
• Mike Lowell (Boston)

Before we get started with our analysis, let’s take a look at the salaries for each of the six third basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez ($32 million)
2. Aramis Ramirez ($15.65 million)
3. Mike Lowell ($12 million)
4. David Wright ($7.5 million)
5. Brandon Inge ($6.3 million)
6. Pedro Feliz ($5 million)

As the highest paid player in baseball, Alex Rodriguez’ salary dwarfs not only every other third baseman’s salary, but every other MLB player.  The good news for Rodriguez is that he’ll make another $32 million in 2010 before his salary starts to decline as part of his front-loaded contract.

I’d like to start my analysis by looking at the stats from 2008.  It will give us an idea of what these players were doing the year before 2009, the year we will be analyzing.  It can also give us some idea of why the player was in he position they were in going into 2009.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at the 2008 WAR scores for each third basemen.

1. David Wright (WAR 7.4)
2. Alex Rodriguez (WAR 6.0)
3. Aramis Ramirez (WAR 4.7)
4. Mike Lowell (WAR 3.2)
5. Pedro Feliz (WAR 1.5)
6. Brandon Inge (WAR 1.2)

Alex Rodriguez had a terrific year in 2008, leading the AL in SLG and finishing third in homeruns.  But his great year was overshadowed (at least in WAR) by David Wright.  Wright had the highest WAR of any player on any of the six highest payroll team.

Aramis Ramirez also had a very good year in 2008 finishing with a WAR of 4.7.  It was his sixth year out of eight full seasons with the Cubs that his WAR was above 4.0.

Here’s how the third basemen ranked in 2008 based on OPS+:

1. Alex Rodriguez (OPS+ 150)
2. David Wright (OPS+ 141)
3. Aramis Ramirez (OPS+ 126)
4. Mike Lowell (OPS+ 103)
5. Pedro Feliz (OPS+ 81)
6. Brandon Inge (OPS+ 76)

Of the players we’re reviewing, only Mark Teixeira had a higher OPS+ (152) than Alex Rodriguez in 2008.  Again, Ramirez finished third with a respectable OPS+ of 126.

Moving into 2009, let’s see how the players stack up based on WAR:

1. Alex Rodriguez (WAR 4.4)
2. David Wright (WAR 3.4)
3. Brandon Inge (WAR 2.5)
4. Aramis Ramirez (WAR 2.5)
5. Pedro Feliz (WAR 1.3)
6. Mike Lowell (WAR 1.2)

2009 was a strange year for the third basemen in our survey.  Rodriguez, Wright, Ramirez, and Lowell all spent time on the DL.  Since WAR values playing every day, this hurt their WAR scores.  Even so, Rodriguez and Wright led our group, and Ramirez was tied for third.

One quick note before we move on.  My intention was to examine the opening day rosters for each of the six teams in our survey.  However, Alex Rodriguez began the 2009 season on the DL following hip surgery.  Cody Ransom was actually the opening day third basemen for the Yankees in 2009.  Even so, there can be no doubt that the Yankees fully intended to have Rodriguez starting at third base.  As soon as he was healthy enough to return from the DL, Rodriguez immediately took over at third.  It only makes sense to include his stats for the purposes of our analysis.

How did the third basemen fare ranking them based on 2009 OPS+?  Let’s have a look:

1. Alex Rodriguez (OPS+ 147)
2. Aramis Ramirez (OPS+ 130)
3. David Wright (OPS+ 123)
4. Mike Lowell (OPS+ 106)
5. Brandon Inge (OPS+ 86)
6. Pedro Feliz (OPS+ 81)

Although Ramirez missed time on the DL, he had a terrific year when he returned.  He finished the year hitting .317/.389/.516 with 15 homeruns and 65 RBI. 

Now that we have an idea how well each of the players did over the past couple of years, let’s rank them:

1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. David Wright (Mets)
3. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
4. Mike Lowell (Red Sox)
5. Brandon Inge (Tigers)
6. Pedro Feliz (Phillies)

Rodriguez is far and away the best third baseman in the group and the best in the game.  In fact, he is clearly one of the best players in all of baseball.  I do think that Wright is a better third baseman than Ramirez, but not by much.  Wright has a higher career OPS+ and he is four years younger than Ramirez. 

The skill level drops off significantly after Ramirez.  Lowell is a guy I have always liked and appreciated, but he is no longer the ball player he once was.  Injuries and age have taken their toll and he is no longer one of the elite third basemen in the league.

So, Aramis Ramirez is one of the top third basemen out of the six we’ve looked at, but is he one of the top third basemen in all of Major League Baseball?  In trying to answer this question, we have to consider names like Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Evan Longoria.  Arguments can be made that one or more of these players are better than Ramirez.  However, there can be little doubt that Ramirez is in the mix when you consider the top five or ten third basemen in baseball.

Bottom Line:  My belief is that with the third highest payroll in baseball, the Cubs should employ some of the top players in the game.  At least at third base, it appears that they have one of the games’ top players.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that Ramirez’ contract has a clause that allows him to opt out of the contract after the 2010 season. 

If he has another good year, there’s a good chance Ramirez will opt out and pursue a longer multi-year contract.  My guess is that Jim Hendry (or who ever is the Cubs GM at the time) will renegotiate a longer term multi-year contract with Ramirez.  Unless someone like David Wright or Evan Longoria is available, the Cubs should do whatever they need to do to keep Ramirez on the roster.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that Texas continues to be a possible landing spot for Bradley, but only if the Cubs pick up a “sizable portion” of Bradley’s contract.  Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated suggests that the Cubs may have to eat $16 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years.  Is that really the best the Cubs can get for Bradley?

Bringing Bradley back next year seems highly unlikely.  According Heyman, Many Cubs players, including Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, won’t even talk to Bradley.  Others reportedly applauded when it was announced that Bradley had been suspended late last season. 

Early in the week there was a rumor of a three-team trade that would send Bradley to Toronto, Lyle Overbay to the Mets, and second baseman Luis Castillo to the Cubs.  However, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (writing in the Boston Herald), Toronto wants no part of Bradley.  Who can blame them?

Most reports seem to consider Texas, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco as the most likely trade partners for Bradley.  There’s been a lot of talk about how much of Bradley’s contract the Cubs would have to eat in a trade with the Rangers, but virtually nothing has been said about who the Cubs might receive in return.  I had previously suggested that a Bradley for Michael Young trade might make sense from a financial perspective for the cash-strapped Rangers, but that doesn’t appear to be the deal the Rangers are interested in making.

Trade rumors with Tampa Bay and San Francisco involve one bad contract for another.  With Tampa Bay, the trade rumor involves Bradley’s remaining two-years at a total of $21 million for Pat Burrell’s one remaining year and $9 million.  Obviously, the Cubs would have to kick in some money.

The Bradley-to-San-Francisco rumor involves sending Bradley’s remaining contract to the Giants for Aaron Rowand’s remaining three years and $36 million.

Of the three possibilities, the rumored deal with San Francisco makes the most sense to me.  Assuming the Cubs would not have to kick in any money, they would be taking on an additional year and an additional $16 million in payroll obligation, but at least they’ll be getting a player they can use.  With Texas and Tampa Bay, their are either just paying another team to take Bradley off their hands or they are taking on a player (Burrell) that they can’t use (or both).  Adding Aaron Rowand to the line-up isn’t the perfect solution, but it is better than the other rumors currently floating around.

Whatever happens, Jim Hendry would be well-advised to make it happen fast.  Bradley is and will continue to be a distraction until the Cubs are rid of him.  There will be no “perfect deals” coming along that will allow the Cubs to dump Bradley.  What they need to do is choose the least bad option and move on.

UPDATE: Well, you can cross the Giants off the list of potential trade partners for Milton Bradley.  In an article by Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Giants GM Brian Sabean said:

“A deal like that? For a player like that?” Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. “No. Is that succinct enough? I don’t know that addition by subtraction would work. Smarter people than us have tried that.”

Oh well.  Never say never, but it looks like any potential deal with San Francisco is dead.

Sullivan’s article also says that for the privilege of paying the Rangers $16 million or so to take Milton Bradley, the Cubs would receive a couple of unnamed, mid-level prospects to the Cubs.  Ouch…

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Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com has an interesting post up concerning where he thinks the top 50 free agents will end up this off season.  Of particular interest is that he thinks Rich Harden will sign with the Red Sox and the Cubs will sign Billy Wagner.

In his post, Dierkes suggests that Boston will take a risk and sign Harden to a one-year, $7 million contract.  He compares the signing to what Boston did last year when they signed Brad Penney and John Smoltz.

I believe that now that Ted Lilly is a bit of a question mark for the start of the 2010 season, the Cubs will offer Harden arbitration.  If he is looking for another deal in the $7 million range, I think he’ll accept.  However, I believe he is looking for something closer to $10 million per year and would naturally prefer a multi-year deal. 

If he hits the open market (the Cubs have until December 1 to offer arbitration), Harden will initially hold out for a multi-year contract.  If one is not forthcoming, he may agree to a one-year deal, but I have to believe it is going to be closer to $10 million than $7 million.  So if Tim is right and Boston signs Harden, it will have to be late in the off season when Harden has tested all of the other options. 

For what it’s worth, Harden says he really liked Chicago and his agent, Arn Tellem, says Harden is 100% healthy.  Even so, Harden’s injury history does not inspire confidence.  His is an interesting case, particularly in an ecomony where most teams don’t seem to be open to taking on too much risk unless the price is right.

On Billy Wagner, Tim says:

37.  Billy Wagner – Cubs.  The Cubs don’t have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer.  Then again, they wouldn’t do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season.  The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves.  Even Wagner’s old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.

Tim makes a great point here.  If the Cubs weren’t willing to hand the closer’s job to Marmol in 2009 after he had a really good 2008, why would they in 2010 after a 2009 season that saw Marmol lead all NL relievers in walks and hit batters?  Of course, Wagner’s contract expectations remain an issue.  He earned $10.5 million in 2010 and will likely be looking for a two or three year contract with a similar annual salary.  That’s a little rich for the Cubs’ blood.

Of course, this may be a moot point.  The Red Sox could offer Wagner arbitration and he could accept.  It seemed like a long-shot a week ago, but Wagner says that he enjoyed his time in Boston and his agent says he would possibly be open to accepting an arbitration offer.  As part of their trade with the Mets for Wagner, the Red Sox agreed not to exercise Wagner’s $8 million option for 2010, but they are free to offer the lefty arbitration.

Whatever happens, I strongly feel that the Cubs must address the closer role if they want to be a legitimate World Series contender in 2010.  If Wagner is not the answer, who is?

I previously mentioned Huston Street as a possibility.  He will receive an increase in arbitration from his 2009 salary of $4.5 million.  The Rockies don’t want to deal him, but may have to consider a trade in order to reach their budget goals.  Street would be one of their more marketable players and the Cubs would be one of several teams interested in the closer.

Another possibility is Francisco Cordero of the Reds.  The Reds are reportedly going to have to cut their budget from $71 million in 2009 to $65 to $70 million in 2010.  That might not seem like a big cut, but the Reds have contractual obligations totaling $66 million to just 10 players.  They are going to have to make some trades just to be able to field a full team.

Cordero is one of their most expensive players.  He’s signed through 2011 for $12 million per year with another $12 million club option for 2012 ($1 million buyout).  That’s expensive, but there are unfortunately no good, cheap options for the Cubs.

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are nearing a deal to re-sign John Grabow.  Rosenthal says the deal could be for two years.  It could also be for 100 years, but probably not. 

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The GM meetings end today.  Will Milton Bradley be traded?  More tomorrow…

In an article about the organizational meetings, the Trib’s Paul Sullivan indicated that the Cubs have an interest in Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Akinori Iwamura.  The Rays have until one day after the conclusion of the World Series to determine whether or not to exercise Iwamura’s $4.85 million option for 2010.  Sullivan speculated that the Cubs may try to trade Bradley to Tampa Bay in exchange for Iwamura and Pat Burrell.  In Sullivan’s scenario, the Cubs would then trade Burrell, probably to an American League team.

Iwamura could be a good fit for the Cubs.  He has a history of hitting at the top of the order and he is also an accomplished third baseman, something the Cubs could really use if Aramis Ramirez goes down with an injury again. 

T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com has revised his earlier statement that the Rangers would not consider a trade for Bradley.  It was believed that Bradley burned his bridges in Texas after he admitted that he had feigned injuries while with the Rangers in order to not hurt his stats in anticipation of signing a new contract.  But Texas is in bad financial trouble (Is there another kind?) and needs to regain some of the offense they lost in 2009.  Re-acquiring Bradley is one option.

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Carrie Muskat of MLB.com considers the free agent center field options in a recent blog post.  Of interest (at least to me) are Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli (Is he healthy?), and Mike Cameron.  Of course, I don’t think the Cubs will be looking too closely at any of these guys.  I expect their center fielder next year to come as a result of a Milton Bradley trade.  My best guess is that Aaron Rowand will be patrolling center field at Wrigley next year after the Cubs acquire him from San Francisco for Bradley.

For a complete rundown of what I’m predicting the 2010 Cubs to look like, check out A Look At The Offseason report I posted previously.

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Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors.com quotes Bruce Levine from ESPN Chicago who says that the Cubs are working towards a deal with John Grabow to bring the lefty back on a two-year deal worth $6.5 to $7.5 million per year.

I like Grabow and think he could be a very important piece to the Cubs bullpen next year.  Even so, does a multi-year deal for $6.5 to $7.5 million seem a bit steep?  Aren’t there other guys out there with Grabow’s skill set that could be had for less money and/or just one year?   Honestly, I don’t see this as a huge problem either way, but it just strikes me as a bit odd.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

In the field, the Cubs would prefer to add a center fielder and move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  If that center fielder is a middle-of-the-order run producer, all the better.  The team will also be looking for a second baseman, unless they can find a good shortstop, which will force Ryan Theriot over to second base.

The starting pitching staff is pretty well set, but the bullpen is a bit in flux.  Will John Grabow re-sign?  More importantly, do the Cubs want to enter the 2010 season with Carlos Marmol as their closer?

Over the next few days, I’ll take a look at the team and give my thoughts on what the Cubs brain trust should do this offseason to get ready for 2010.  Today, I’ll start with the infield.

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First Base — There’s little doubt who will play first base next year.  Derrek Lee will be entering the final year of his contract in 2010 and there’s no reason to believe he’s going anywhere.  However, the question of who is going to back him up is a good one.  Lee has missed playing time over the past couple of years with a pinched nerve in his neck.  If the problem flares up again, who will play first base?

Within the organization, Micah Hoffpauir is the first guy that comes to mind.  Jake Fox is another.  Both guys are considered “offense-first” type of players, but I think both showed this past year that they can do a credible, if unspectacular, job in the field.  Although Fox is generally considered the more potent offensive threat, they put up very similar number in 2009.  Hoffpauir bats left-handed, which may carry more weight in the decision than it should.  Fox is more versatile in the field.

Another option is for the Cubs to sign a fairly low dollar free agent who could back up at first base and be a dependable bat off the bench.  Someone on the back side of their career that can accept a backup role and can be an additional veteran presence.  Someone in the mold of Tony Clark or Kevin Millar comes to mind.  The knock against bringing in someone like Clark or Millar is they probably won’t put up any better numbers than Hoffpauir or Fox, but they will probably cost more.  That’s a good point.  So unless you feel that the veteran presence is that important, stick with Hoffpauir or Fox and save your money.

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Second Base — We found out in 2009 that Mike Fontenot is not the answer to the second base question.  The Cubs also have Aaron Miles, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco on the roster and all three can play second base.  Even so, I don’t think any of them is the answer the Cubs are looking for at second.

In my opinion, Aaron Miles does not have a role to play on the 2010 Cubs.  He needs to be traded or released.  I know that releasing him will cost some money, but keeping him on the team will waste a valuable roster spot.  If you can trade him, great, but be willing to release him if you have to.

I envision Jeff Baker playing the role of a poor man’s Mark DeRosa.  He impressed in his time with the Cubs last year and I can see him coming back in an expanded role.  I don’t foresee him as the everyday second baseman, but rather as a super sub.  He can play several positions and do a credible job at all of them.

Andres Blanco is an interesting player.  He’s known for his awesome defense, but what people don’t know is that his offense has improved since joining the Cubs.  My understanding is that Blanco battled injuries during the early part of his career and did not get the at-bats he so desperately needed.  Now that he is healthy, his offense is improving and is becoming a much larger part of his game.

Although it would not be my first choice, I could see a middle infield made up of Theriot and Blanco.  I’d prefer Blanco at short and Theriot at second, but the other way around could work as well.  In my opinion, the Cubs should only consider this if they can’t find a more suitable solution via free agency or a trade.

Some possible free agent targets the Cubs might consider are Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson and Akinori Iwamura.  I’m almost certain that Figgins will be too expensive (four or five years at $10 million/year?).  Also, he’s somewhat of a hot commodity at the moment, so there will be considerable competition for him.

Hudson is a little more realistic, but considering that he was beaten out of his starting job with the Dodgers by Ronnie Belliard, the bloom is a bit off this rose.  Even so, Hudson put up respectable numbers in 2009 (.283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI) and might be a good fit for the Cubs.  He’s neither the speed demon nor the middle-of-the-order run producer they want, but he’d likely do a better job than the in-house candidates.

Iwamura is an interesting possibility.  He’s currently with the Rays and they have an option on him for next year that will cost them $4.25 million.  The Ray are likely to opt for the buyout ($250,000) rather than pick up his option.  They have other less expense possibilities at second base, so Iwamura will likely be a free agent.

In 2009, Iwamura had a hitting line of .290/.355/.390 in 69 games.  Again, he’s not a speed demon or a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he could still be a nice addition to a Cubs team that had trouble getting on base this past year.

A couple of other free agent possibilities include Mark DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez.  I like both of these guys, but I don’t think either one makes sense.  DeRosa is going to be 35 years old and he’s coming off of wrist surgery.  He was once an integral part of the Cubs, but that ship has sailed. 

Sanchez is an interesting possibility.  San Francisco has a club option on Sanchez for $8 million with a $600,000 buyout.  Opinion has been that the Giants will opt for the buyout, but would like to sign him for less money.  Sanchez will be 32 in 2010 and will be coming off knee surgery.  He’s expected to be 100% healthy by Spring Training.

I like Sanchez and he interests me if the price is right.  Problem is, I don’t think the price will be right.

Another interesting free agent name is Placido Polanco, who will be 34 next season.  Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBI for Detroit in 2009.  He’s a career .303/.348/.414 hitter, but at least initially, the market seems to be soft for him.  He made $4.6 million last year.  If he is willing to take a pay cut, he’ll be in the Cubs financial ball park.  If not, he’ll be playing for someone else next year.

Potential trade targets include Kelly Johnson (Atlanta) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore).  Roberts would obviously cost the Cubs much more that Johnson.  In fact, the only way Roberts could conceivably end up with the Cubs is if he is part of a package involving Milton Bradley.  I’ve pushed the idea of a Milton Bradley and others package for Roberts and Luke Scott.  I don’t know if either Jim Hendry or Orioles GM Andy MacPhail have jumped on that bandwagon yet, but I’ll keep beating the drum.

Johnson doesn’t seem to bring anything to the table that Baker or Blanco couldn’t provide.  He’s the type of player that Hendry has shown an interest in in the past, but I don’t think he makes sense for the Cubs.

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Shortstop — Unless the Cubs make some sort of unexpected move, Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop in 2010.  Let’s face it, despite the call for an all-star caliber shortstop by many fans, Theriot has done a more than credible job during his tenure.  In 2009, he hit .284/.383/.369 with 7 homeruns and 54 RBI.  And he only made $500,000.  What a bargain.

Blaco is another guy that could conceivable take over short and push Theriot over to second.  Eventually, I think Starlin Castro will do this anyway, so maybe it’s a good idea to get Theriot started at second now. 

Although I don’t expect the Cubs to bring in a shortstop via trade or free agency, there are a couple of names out there to consider.  I don’t foresee the Cubs getting in on Marco Scutaro, but there is a small chance they could take a flyer on Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada.  The reason I think these two guys may be on the Cubs radar is because I expect both to still be available at the end of the offseason for a relatively bargain price (ala Bobby Abreau last year).  It wouldn’t bother me to get a veteran shortstop for a year to hold the position for Starlin Castro in 2011.  However, I don’t expect it to happen.

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Third Base — With any luck, Aramis Ramirez will return healthy next year and will stay healthy all year.  He missed two months in 2009 with a shoulder separation and trying to fill his place in the lineup and in the field proved to be ctwo hallenges the Cubs were not up for.  So who will be Ramirez’ backup in 2010?

Jake Fox is one internal possibility.  He’s not going to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he did a better job there than many expected.  With some additional work, he might even be credible.

Jeff Baker is another guy that can fill in for Ramirez.  In fact, I never did quite understand why the Cubs didn’t give Baker more playing time at third in 2009 while Ramirez was injured.  As the team’s super sub, I would call on him to fill in at third when needed.  As such, I don’t foresee and moves to bring in a backup for Ramirez.

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Catcher — Who is the real Geovany Soto?  Did we see the real Soto in 2008 when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors and hit .285/.364/.504 with 26 homeruns and 62 RBI or was his .218/.321/381 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 2009 the real Soto?  I wish I knew.  I think the Cubs feel the same way.

Soto’s performance in 2008 was a pleasant surprise.  His minor league numbers didn’t lead people to think he would hit as well in a full-time MLB role as he did.  Now, after his performance in 2009, people are asking whether or not 2008 was just a fluke.

I have little doubt that the Cubs will enter the 2010 season with Soto as their starting catcher.  However, I’m not convinced that they will stick with him for very long if he struggles at the plate the way he did in 2009.

The Cubs will not look to replace Soto via trade or free agency, but they may look into bringing back free agent catcher Henry Blanco to act as a mentor to Soto.  There is some thought that Soto struggled in 2009 without the same influence that Blanco provided in 2008.  Blanco will be 38 years old, so the Cubs should not expect too much out of him, but if he can play the role of mentor to Soto and give him a day off every once in a while, bringing Blanco back on a one-year deal may be a good investment.

Having said all of this, I think it is fair to ask, what about Koyie Hill?  Hill was a capable fill in for Soto while he was on the DL and during his offensive struggles.  He deserves to be brought back.  Unfortunately, things don’t always work out the way they should.  Since Hill is out of minor league options, he may be moved as part of a trade.

It would not bother me to see Hill brought back next year, but the more important issue is putting Soto in a situation where he can  succeed.  If bringing Henry Blanco back improves Soto’s chances of repeating 2008, by all means, bring Blanco back and trade Hill.

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That’s it for the infield.  Next, I’ll look at what needs to be done with the outfield.