While the starting rotation has been surprisingly good (with the exception of Carlos Zambrano), the bullpen has stunk up the joint.  Esmailin Caridad was given the 8th inning set-up role based on a very good Spring Training, but he had a melt down in his very first outing.  After a total of just 2.2 innings pitched, Caridad was sent to the DL with a forearm injury.

John Grabow, Justin Berg, and Jeff Gray all have ERAs in excess of 6.00.  Jeff Samardjzia is leading that parade with a 16.20 ERA in 3.0 innings pitched.  Grabow and Samardjzia in particular were supposed to be a veteran counterbalance to rookies like Caridad, Berg, Gray, and James Russell.  Instead, they have helped lead the charge in the opposite direction.

James Russell has been a breath of fresh air in an otherwise disappointing bullpen.  In 4.1 innings of relief he has yet to give up an earned run.  Sean Marshall, who many would argue should be in the starting rotation, has looked go so far this year as well.  Going into Sunday’s game against the Astros, Marshall had pitched 7.0 innings and posting a 1.29 ERA.

Then there’s Carlos Marmol.  Man, he makes me nervous.  Even so, he has been good so far in this young season.  Going into Sunday’s game, Marmol was a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities.  He also had not allowed an earned run.  Unfortunately, he suffered his first blown save of the year on Sunday against the Astros.  He did not look good pitching against Houston’s rather anemic offense.  I don’t want to place too much importance on the blown save, but I’m afraid it is a precursor of things to come.  Unfortunately, I just don’t trust Marmol to handle the 9th inning.

At the moment, Sean Marshall is the only bullpen arm I really trust (in spite of getting knocked around a bit Sunday).  Russell is young and unproven, although he’s looked good so far.  Marmol is a train wreck waiting to happen.  The rest of the bullpen hasn’t given me any reason to have faith.

When Ted Lilly returns, either Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva will move to the bullpen.  My hope is that that move will shore up the bullpen and maybe change the dynamic a bit out there.  If that doesn’t work, the Cubs don’t have a lot of options at their disposal.  I’d like to see them bring up Andrew Cashner, who I believe has a future as a set-up man or closer, but the Cubs seem to be intent on making him into a starter.  So my guess is that he’ll remain in the rotation at AA Tennessee.

There’s always the possibility the Cubs could make a trade for someone like Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, or even Heath Bell, but a move for any of the three would be expensive.  Plus, with the exception of Bell, I’m not sure they would be getting anything that they don’t already have available.

It has been great watching Ryan Dempster, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Randy Wells pitch so well in the early going this year.  Unfortunately, we’ve also had to suffer through the pain of watching the bullpen give away too many games.  And at the moment, there is no reason to believe that is going to change in the near future.

On the surface, it appears that both the Yankees and Mets got some of the top players in the game for the money they spent.  For the Yankees, names like Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and C.C. Sabathia immediately spring to mind.  For the Mets, guys like David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Francisco Rodriguez top the list.  But what about the Cubs?  Are any of their players among the best at their position in baseball?

My premise is simple.  If you have the third highest payroll in all of baseball, then you should have one of the top players at just about every position.  Is that happening with the Cubs?  I’m examining that question with this series of articles.  To read previous posts in this series, click on these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field

Today, I’d like to look at closers.  The closers we will be examining are:

• Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
• Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
• Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
• Fernando Rodney (Tigers)
• Brad Lidge (Phillies)
• Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)

Here’s how the closers rank based on 2009 salary:

1. Mariano Rivera ($15 million)
2. Brad Lidge ($11.5 million)
3. Francisco Rodriguez ($8.5 million)
4. Jonathan Papelbon ($6.5 million)
5. Kevin Gregg ($4.2 million)
6. Fernando Rodney ($2.7 million)

I like to start my analysis of 2009 by looking at what the players accomplished in 2008.  It gives me an idea of what type of momentum they had going into 2009 and helps me understand what the GM was thinking when they signed/traded for the player prior to 2009, or decided to keep the player in their current position in 2009.

With that in mind, here’s how the closers ranked based on 2008 WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 3.1)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 3.0)
3. Brad Lidge (WAR 2.2)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 1.8)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR 0.7)
6. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.4)

Next, let’s compare the pitchers based on 2008 ERA+:

1. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 317)
2. Brad Lidge (ERA + 225)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 198)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 198)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 127)
6. Fernando Rodney (ERA + 91)

Finally, let’s look at 2008 WHIP:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.665)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (0.952)
3. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.226)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.282)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.288)
6. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.587)

In 1988, Mariano Rivera was obviously the cream of the crop.  Jonathan Papelbon also had an outstanding year.  Based on the three stats we looked at above, Brad Lidge had a good year.  But when you factor in his 41 saves in 41 save opportunities, you can see that it was a remarkable year for Lidge.

The other three closers were at least a step below Rivera, Papelbon and Lidge.  Francisco Rodriguez had an impressive 62 saves in 69 chances, but the other two closers were nothiong special.  Even so, Jim Hendry must have seen something in Kevin Gregg following the 2008 season.  He allowed the Cubs former closer Kerry Wood to leave via free agency and he signed Gregg to a $4.2 million contract.

Moving on to 2009, here’s how the closers did based on WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 2.0)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 1.9)
3. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.3)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 0.3)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR -0.3)
6. Brad Lidge (WAR -0.7)

Brad Lidge had a train wreck of a year.  He was a mess.  But at least based on WAR, Kevin Gregg was almost as bad.  Gregg’s WAR indicates that the Cubs would have been better served bringing a replacent level closer up from AAA.

Here’s how the pitchers ranked based on ERA+:

1. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 253)
2. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 243)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 111)
4. Fernando Rodney (ERA+ 104)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 95)
6. Brad Lidge (ERA+ 59)

For the first time in our study, Papelbon knocks Rivera off the top step.  Gregg’s ERA+ indicates that he is a below average closer, but it’s nowhere near as bad as Lidge’s ERA+.  Lidge was simply awful in 2009.

Finally, let’s compare the closers based on their 2009 WHIP.  Here’s how they rank:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.905)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WHIP 1.147)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.309)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.311)
5. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.467)
6. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.807)

Rivera had a WHIP below 1.00 again.  He ended the year with 44 saves and only two blown saves.  Fernando Rodney’s 2009 stats did not look particularly strong, but he finished the season with 37 saves in 38 opportunities.  Of the group, Gregg had the fewest saves with 23 in 30 chances.

Ranking the closers based on averall stats and performances, I came up with this list:

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
5. Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
6. Fernando Rodney (Tigers)

After Lidge’s horrible 2009, it was hard to rank him 4th.  However, based on his career numbers, he definitely deserved to be ahead of Gregg and Rodney. 

I think there is an argument to be made that Rodney should be ranked ahead of Gregg.  Again, I deferred to their career numbers.  However, I think it is fair to say that moving forward, Rodney is the more valuable closer.  His stock is rising while Gregg’s is falling.

It’s plain to see that Kevin Gregg is not one of the elite closers in baseball.  He ranks at or near the bottom of the list of the six closers we examined.  When you factor in other closers not part of our survey such as Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, and others, it’s clear that Gregg is not a top closer.

Bottom Line: Allowing Kerry Wood to leave via free agency was probably the proper move for the Cubs following the 2008 season.  However, signing Kevin Gregg was not the proper move.  He was not an elite closer prior to 2009 and the Cubs had no reason to believe he would be an elite closer in 2009.  Again, it was more wishful thinking on Jim Hendry’s part. 

Gregg lost his closing role to Carlos Marmol during the 2009 season and the Cubs appear ready to move forward with Marmol as the closer in 2010.  Is Marmol an elite closer?  I don’t think so.  He led all NL relievers in BB/9 in 2009 and he was third among all NL pitchers for hit batsmen.  When Marmol is right, he is difficult to hit.  But when he is wrong, which happens far too often, he simpy can’t throw strikes.  That’s not a quality you want in a closer.

To give you an idea, in 2009, Marmol had a WAR of 0.6, an ERA+ of 132, and his WHIP was 1.459.  He allowed 7.9 walks per 9 innings and he hit 12 batters in just 74.0 innings pitched.  These stats are a recipe for disaster as a closer.

The Cubs are once again entering a season in 2010 hoping and praying that their sub-par closer can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.  It could happen, but the odds are against it.  At some point, the Cubs need to stop applying band-aids to their needs and actually add a top player.  The closer position would be a good place to start.

Prior to joining Boston on a one year contract in 2009, Saito pitched for three years with the Dodgers where he earned 81 saves in 91 opportunities over a three year period.  Saito was dominate for the Dodgers after taking over for injured closer Eric Gagne in 2006.  From 2006 to 2008, Saito posted ERAs of 2.07, 1.40, and 2.49 respectively.

I like the fact that the Cubs are taking a look at Saito.  As I’ve mentioned previously, I don’t trust Carlos Marmol to handle the closing duties for a Cubs team that is supposed to be a playoff contender next year.  He’s too wild and too inconsistent.  The Cubs need a true closer. 

Of course, someone like Billy Wagner (free agent) or Francisco Cordero (trade) would be expensive and the Cubs don’t have much money to spend.  Saito could be a nice alternative.  At age 39, he’s probably only expecting a one-year deal for around 1$ – $2 million per year.  He earned $1.5 million last year and Boston declined his $6 million option for 2010.

Saito could be a perfect compliment to Marmol.  He could serve as a right-handed set-up man and if Marmol falters, Saito can step right in and take over as the closer.

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Yahoo! Sports took a look recently at the Cubs and their needs for the off season.   It’s a good report, although it doesn’t cover any new ground or offer any new insights.

However, the one paragraph that caught my eye read:

“The Cubs completed their third consecutive above-.500 season for the first time since they did it six times in a row from 1967 to 1972. But it wasn’t good enough to get them into the playoffs, as they missed for the first time since 2006. The Cubs certainly aren’t in need of an overhaul. As manager Lou Piniella pointed out, they need better health and bounce-back seasons from a couple of key players in 2010.”

There are a few things to take from this one paragraph.  First, 2009 completed the first three year stretch of winning seasons for the Cubs since 1972.  Seriously, that’s pathetic.  However, rather than looking too far back in horror, let us all rejoice in the fact that the Cubs are coming off three consecutive winning seasons as they enter the 2010 campaign.  That’s good.  That’s positive.  It’s something to build on.

I think a lot of fans look at the 2009 season as a complete disaster.  True, injuries and season-long slumps took their toll on the team, but the fact remains that the Cubs finished the season with a winning record.  And that brings us to the second point I want to make about the above-quoted paragraph.

Lou Piniella is right when he says that the Cubs are going to be just fine in 2010 if they can stay healthy and a couple of players (Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto) can have bounce-back seasons.  Honestly, that’s not too much to ask.  Every team’s success hinges on the health of it’s players, so Piniella isn’t asking for anything that every team asks for every season.

As for bounce-back years, history would indicate that Alfonso Soriano is going to have a much better year in 2010 than he had in 2009.  Just look at his career numbers.  His 2009 season was an aberrtion.

Geovany Soto could go either way.  Was 2009 an aberration for him, or was his 2008 rookie season?  My fear is that it’s the former, but I hope it’s the latter.  Only time will tell.

The final point I want to make about the paragraph from Yahoo! Sports is what it doesn’t say.  I suspect that if they had quoted Lou Piniella directly rather than paraphrasing him, he would have said something to the effect of “The Cubs will be fine next year if we can stay healthy and get bounce-back years from a couple of players AND if Jim Hendry can move Milton Bradley, add a second baseman who can hit lead-off, and a center fielder who is also a middle-of-the-order run producer.”

I agree that the Cubs need to stay healthy in 2010 and that Soriano and Soto have to produce like they have in the past.  But that’s only two-thirds of the equation.  Jim Hendry also has to do his job and fill the holes that the team currently has.  And that can’t happen until he can trade Milton Bradley.

I don’t have any inside information, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a Milton Bradley trade happens this week before the Winter Meetings.  Hendry has to move Bradley so he can concentrate on the team’s other needs as the GMs head to Indianapolis for their annual off season pow wow.

**********

Chicago Cubs Online has a recap of the Saturday Talkin’ Baseball show on Chicago’s ESPN 1000 with Bruce Levine and Jonathan Hood.  Again, nothing earth-shattering, but I was interested in the comment concerning the death of any possible trade of Milton Bradley to the Texas Rangers.

“According to Bruce Levine, the Rangers are no longer a possibility for Milton Bradley. Due to the ownership situation, the Rangers must receive approval from Major League Baseball to spend money … Texas is in receivership. They cannot even hire a coach without receiving permission.”

Last week, the talk was that Texas would be interested in Milton Bradley, provided the Cubs pick up $16 million of the $21 million owed to him over the next two years.  Apparently that’s not even a possibility any more.  Is there any team that has any interest in Milton Bradley?

Last week, Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers wrote on ChicagoBreakingSports.com that the Cubs were involved in discussions over a three way trade that would send Bradley to Texas, Kevin Millwood to the Mets and Luis Castillo to the Cubs.  I’m not sure who Rogers’ source was for this rumor (assuming he actually had a source), but officials with both the Cubs and Rangers immediately shot down the rumor.

Another rumor had the Blue Jays contacting the Cubs to drum up interest in Roy Halladay.  Carrie Muskat of MLB.com basically dismissed the possibility of Halladay joining the Cubs, saying:

“However, before Cubs fans start salivating at the prospect of the former Cy Young winner in the rotation with Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster, there’s a catch. He’s owed $15.75 million in 2010, and the Blue Jays want some of the Cubs’ top prospects. No. 1, the team can’t take on Halladay’s salary. The Blue Jays apparently have a wish list and Milton Bradley is not on it. A player like highly regarded shortstop Starlin Castro most likely is, and the Cubs don’t want to part with him, especially since they might only have Halladay for one year.”

I’m no hotshot reporter for MLB.com, but that seems like some pretty weak logic to me.  Muskat doesn’t have any idea how a potential trade would be structured, so she has no way of knowing if the Cubs would be adding the $15.75 million owed to Halladay to their current payroll.  What if the deal was Carlos Zambrano for Halladay with no money changing hands?  The Cubs would actually save money in that transaction.

As for not wanting to trade Starlin Castro to acquire Halladay, the Cubs would be foolish to make Castro untouchable in such a trade.  Castro looks very promising.  If everything works out, he’ll be the Cubs shortstop in the near future and perhaps for years to come.  Maybe.  We can’t be sure how Castro is going to develop.  What we do know is that Halladay is a legitimate staff ace.  He’s proven himself in arguably the toughest division in baseball.  Allowing Castro’s potential to stand in the way of acquiring the sure thing that is Roy Halladay just doesn’t make sense.

And the thing that really bothers mre about Muskat’s statement is that she is speaking for the Cubs.  How does she know that the Cubs don’t want to trade Castro?  Has she discussed it with Jim Hendry?  If so, did he say the Cubs don’t want to trade Castro?  Did he say Castro is untouchable?  Did he say any of this in relation to a potential trade for Roy Halladay?  I’ll bet the Cubs would not be willing to trade Castro to acquire Yuniesky Betancourt,  but a trade for Halladay is a completely different story.

Finally, Muskat says if the Cubs trade for Halladay, they might only have him for a year.  As things stand right now, that’s true.  However, my guess is that any team that trades for Halladay will want to first negotiate a contract extension with him.  That holds true for the Cubs as well.

I don’t mean to be too hard on Muskat.  Generally speaking she does a good (if uninspired) job reporting on all things Cubs related.  But this blurb about a possible trade for Roy Halladay just seemed to be defeatist in nature and tinged with the age-old idea that the Cubs can’t possibly acquire any of the best players in the game.

Moving on…Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that a trade for Curtis Granderson is still a possibility.  Detroit needs to reduce their payroll and is listening to offers for their center fielder (as well as other players).  Sullivan opines that the Cubs will not part with Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro to obtain Granderson.  I assume he is saying this because his colleague, Phil Rogers, wrote an article saying the Cubs should offer Marmol and Castro for Granderson, but again, how does he know the Cubs will not trade either player?  Is this his opinion or did someone with the Cubs say it?

Sullivan also discusses rumors involving signing free agents such as Marlon Byrd, Mike Cameron, Mark DeRosa, and Matt Holliday.  Sullivan thinks that Byrd and Cameron are possibilities, but Holliday and DeRosa aren’t going to happen.  I agree with Sullivan.  Holliday is out of reach and not a good fit.  DeRosa’s time has passed.  Even though I felt strongly that trading him was the wrong thing to do at the time, bringing DeRosa back now will in no way right that wrong.

Let me throw out one caveat concerning DeRosa.  It would not upset me too much for the Cubs to sign him for reasonable money on a one-year contract.  I’m almost positive that he’ll get multi-year offers from other teams, but if the Cubs can re-sign him at the right price, then I think his flexibility and leadership would be a welcome addition to the Cubs.  But again, I don’t think it’s going to happen.

**********

Phil Rogers has some rumors in the Boston Herald and his Cubs rumor says:

“Many in the Cubs’ front office think they would be foolish to give up Starlin Castro to get Curtis Granderson, but there are a lot of other ways to do the deal. General manager Jim Hendry appreciates all Granderson brings to the table, even though he has had trouble hitting left-handers in two of the last three seasons. Perhaps Granderson would benefit from working with new Cubs hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.”

Granderson would be a good fit for the Cubs, but it is going to be difficult for them to make any deals until they know what is going to happen with Milton Bradley.  Unfortunately, Bradley not only screwed up the team during the season, but he is getting in the way of improving it in the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs miss out on players like Granderson because they can’t/won’t pull the trigger on a trade or signing a free agent until the Bradley situation is settled.

**********

Gordon Wiitenmyer of the Sun-Times has corrected the information he originally gave concerning the two-year contract the Cubs signed with lefty John Grabow.  Originally, Wiitenmyer wrote that the contract was for a total of $7 million.  However, he now says that Garbow signed for a total of $7.5 million.

Wiitenmyer doesn’t say how the money is split up, but I read elsewhere that the first year is for $3.25 million and the second year is $4.25 million.  Unfortunately, I can’t find the article where I read these numbers, so take it for what it’s worth.

Even though his slash line took a hit in 2009, Granderson hit a career high 30 homeruns, all the more impressive since it was done while playing in Detroit’s spacious ball yard.  Granderson appears to be a “buy low” opportunity.  His trade value is down from a year or two ago, but his potential remains high.

Chicago newspaper columnists are almost giddy with excitement over the potential of the Cubs trading for Granderson. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times was more subdued when he said ” given the ideal fit provided by the Chicago-area native (i.e. Granderson), conversations between the teams appear inevitable.”  Phil Rogers of the Tribune and ChicagoBreakingSports.com was much more excited.  The headline of his article, Cubs Must Go After Granderson, gives you an idea of where he stands on the subject.

Rogers praises Granderson’s on-field play and off-field involvement in the community.  He calls Detroit “crazy” for thinking about trading him, and then becomes almost apoplectic when he says “The Cubs should do absolutely everything to get him, if he is available. There’s no debate about this.”

Rogers then starts the trade talks by offering up Carlos Marmol and Starlin Castro.  I’m not very high on Marmol as a closer, but at the moment, he is the only one the Cubs have.  Also, I’m not ready to annoint Castro the second coming of Derek Jeter or Ozzie Smith, but he does appear the heir to the throne at shortstop.  Is this really the price that the Cubs want to pay for Granderson?

Thankfully, Phil Rogers’ trade offers do not obligate the Cubs in any way.  It is true that Granderson would be a good fit for the Cubs in center field.  I’m not sure where he would fit in the line up.  His numbers seem to be better suited for the middle-of-the-order than leadoff, but that’s an arguement for another day.  For now, let’s focus on what price the Cubs would have to pay to acquire Granderson.

First, let’s look at money.  Granderson is signed through 2012 and is owed a total of $23.75 million.  His contract also has a club option for 2013 for $13 million with a $2 million buyout.  All tolled, Granderson is guaranteed to make $25.75 million over the next four years.  He’s not cheap, but his contract is not outrageous either.

Next, who would the Cubs have to give up to get Granderson?  Rogers’ offer of Marmol and Castro is too high.  I wouldn’t make Castro untouchable, but for this deal, I’d take him off the table.  I’d be willing to trade Marmol, but only if the Cubs have a really good idea of who is going to replace him.  As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think the Cubs should go into 2010 counting on Marmol to be their closer, but at the moment, he’s the only one they have.

Other names could include Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauir, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot, and Aaron Miles (if they’ll take him).  A few of these guys are non-tender candidates, but they still have value.  Sean Marshall is another valuable trade chip.  He deserves a shot as a starter somewhere, but it appears that he’s not going to get that shot with the Cubs again this year.

The Cubs minor leagues have some interesting trade candidates.  Darwin Barney is one guy who is proving himself in the minors, but who will likely not have a place to play when he’s ready for the big leagues in a year or two.  J.R. Mathes led the Iowa Cubs in wins last year, but doesn’t appear to have a future on the big league staff.  Rather than let him rot in Iowa (no offense to the Great State of Iowa), why not use him as trade bait.

These are just a few options.  I don’t know what the Tigers would want in return for Granderson other than salary relief.  The Cubs have some valuable players they can send Detroit’s way.  The important thing now is to keep Phil Rogers away from the negotiations.

**********

Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago said in a radio interview that the Cubs will announce a Milton Bradley trade in the next 3-4 days.  He mentioned the Rangers, Rays, Mets and Tigers as possible trade partners for the Cubs.  

The Rangers are starting to not make sense to me if Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated is correct that the Rangers would only be willing to pay $5 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years.  The Rays also do not make sense.  If the Cubs send Bradley to Tampa Bay for Pat Burrell, they will have to turn around and trade him, likely picking up a portion of his contract.

The Mets don’t make sense on a couple of levels.  First, although they would like to move Luis Castillo and his remaining two years and $12 million contract, they have already said that they are not interested in Bradley.  Also, New York isn’t exactly the quiet, laid-back small market Bradley needs.   The Cubs may have interest in Castillo, but a third team would probably have to get involved for a deal to work.

The Tigers could be interesting on several fronts.  First, I’ve already talked about Curtis Granderson.  The Cubs could use him, but there’s no way that the Tigers trade him straight up to the Cubs for Bradley.  Might the throw in Dontrelle Willis?  He has been largely ineffective for the Tigers and he is owed $12 million in 2010.  Jim Hendry likes his reclamation projects, but D-Train is awfully expensive.  Even so, I would rather pay Willis $12 million to play for the Cubs next year than I would to pay Texas $16 million over two years for Bradley not to play for the Cubs.

The Tigers also have some interest in trading Magglio Ordonez.  He is owed $18 million in 2010 and he has a vesting option for 2011 for $15 million.  The 2011 option vests if he starts 135 games or gets 540 plate appearances in 2010, or he gets 270 starts or 1080 plate appearances between 2009 and 2010.

Ordonez can still be a dangerous hitter, but he’s becoming more of a DH than an everyday position player.  In 2009, he played right field in 104 of the 131 games in which he played.  That number will likely go down in 2010.  Plus, the Cubs would really like to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  Adding Ordonez wouldn’t allow that.

I don’t know where Milton Bradley is going to end up or who the Cubs might get for him, but it will sure be nice not talking about him anymore.  It will also be nice being able to move on with the off season.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

A Look At The Offseason (Part 1 – Infield)

A Look At The Offseason (Part 2 – Outfield)

Today, I’d like to focus on the Cubs’ starting and relief pitching.

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Four of the five positions in the Cubs starting rotation are pretty well set.  Barring an unforessen trade, the Cubs starters will include Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells.  Lefties Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Marshall, along with right-hander Jeff Samardjzia will compete for the fifth starter position.  So the Cubs are set with starting pitching, right?  Maybe.

I don’t expect the Cubs to add another starter, but there are a couple of scenarios that make some sense.  First, I’ve previously set out a scenario where a Milton Bradley (and others) trade to Toronto could return Roy Halladay.  If that happened, then you can count Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia among the faces in the bullpen.  It’s unlikely, but it would work.

If the Cubs are looking for a free agent starting pitcher (which I don’t think they are), there are two different targets I would suggest.  First is current Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf.  In 2009, Wolf was 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA.  He earned $5 million last year, plus $500,000 for pitching more than 200 innings.  He’ll be 34 years old in 2010.

The other free agent target I’d like the Cubs to consider is former Brewers starter, Ben Sheets.  Sheets missed the past year while recovering from surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.  He thought he’d be ready to pitch again by mid-season this past year, but his recovery took longer than anticipated.  From all reports, Sheets will be ready by Spring Training.

Sheets is a buy low, high potential target.  When he’s right, Sheets is very good.  Of course, his health and durability are a question, so he shouldn’t cost too much on a one year deal.

The Cubs bullpen will include two of Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia (the two not in the starting rotation). It will also include Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol.  If the Cubs can re-sign John Grabow (which I expect), he’ll also be part of the bullpen.  Justin Berg, Dave Patton, Jeff Stevens and Mitch Atkins are also bullpen candidates.

The big question for me concerning the bullpen is whether or not the Cubs will be willing to start the year with Marmol as the closer.  All indications from the Cubs are that Marmol will be the closer.  If I were in charge, I’d be looking for someone else.

In 2009, Marmol lead all NL relievers in hit batters (12) and in bb/9 innings (7.90/9).  That’s not what you want from the guy who’s in charge of shutting down the opposing team in the 9th inning of a close game.  In 19 save opportunities, Marmol had 15 saves for a 21.0% blown save rate.  For comparisons sake, the Dodger’s Jonathon Broxton blew 14.3% of his save opportunities, Ryan Franklin of St. Louis blew 11.6% of his save opportunities, and the Rockies’ Huston Street blew 10.8% of his save opportunities.  Even Francisco Rodriguez of the Mets, who had a down year, only blew 16.7% of his save opportunities.  (In all fairness, Brad Lidge blew 21.6% of his saves and the Phillies are in the World Series.)

Marmol has been a great story for the Cubs up until now.  He joined the club as a catcher, was converted to a pitcher and at times has been dominant.  But he’s too wild and too unpredictable.  The Cubs need a closer they can count on.

Rob G. of The Cub Reporter has thrown out the idea of the Cubs signing free agent Kelvim Escobar.  Although he’s missed the past two years with injuries, Escobar is expected to be healthy going into next year.  Because of his past injury issues, he shouldn’t cost much and he could be brought in with the idea of either setting up Marmol or taking on the closer role. 

The Cubs could also decide to go after Billy Wagner.  After returning from injury last year, Wagner, who will be 39 years old next season,  looked like his old self.  He probably won’t come cheap, but he has the potential to be a dominant closer.  In 2009, between the Mets and Red Sox, Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings, but he posted a 1-1 record with a 1.72 ERA.  It’s a small sample size, but impressive nonetheless considering the circumstances.

The Red Sox have an $8 million option on Wagner for 2010, but they agreed not to exercise it in order to get him to waive his no-trade clause when he was traded from the Mets to Boston.  That must mean that Wagner thinks he can get more than $8 million per year and/or more years as a free agent. 

The latest news on Wagner is that he told a reporter that he is considering retiement and doesn’t plan to talk to teams when he hits free agency.  The next day, his agent said that Wagner’s statement was “premature.”  If he’s available, the Cubs should inquire, but my personal feeling is that his price tag is going to be too high.

There are a couple of other free agent candidates that are longshots, but possibilities.  If John Smoltz would be willing to return to the bullpen in 2010, then the Cubs should look at him to be their closer.  At the moment, it looks like Smoltz wants to start and St. Louis is willing to give him a chance, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.

The other option is of my own creation.  I mentioned earlier that free agent Ben Sheets is a pitcher the Cubs should consider.  Although he’s never closed before, it might be the perfect role for him coming off of a missed year due to injury.  It would allow him to pitch fewer innings and build his strength back up if his goal is to eventually be a starter again.  He has shown in the past that he has the mentality to be a closer.  Although I like the idea, I’m not so sure either Sheets or the Cubs would like it as much.

Other free agents to consider are Brandan Donnelly, Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito.  I’m not suggesting any of them would be a good fit for the Cubs, but they do have experience closing and all are available. 

There are a couple of intriguing trade candidates that may be available.  The Cincinnati Reds owe Francisco Cordero $12 million per year in 2010 and 2011.  The team also holds a $12 million option for 2012 with a $1 million buy-out.  In fact, he is the highest paid player on a team with many needs and very little payroll flexibility.

In 2009, Cordero was 2-6 with a 2.16 ERA.  He had 39 saves in 43 save opportunities (9.3% blown saves).  He’s expensive, but could probably be had for a couple of good prospects.  On the other hand, I doubt if either team would be overly excited about making a deal within the division.  It happens, but it’s not preferred.

There is also a chance that Colorado may make Huston Street available.  Personally, I think this is a longshot, but the fact is that Street made $4.5 million in 2009 and is due for a hefty increase via arbitration.  The Rockies have a couple of  other cheaper (albeit, not as good) options at closer, including Manny Corpas who is returning from injury.  It seems to me that the only way the Rockies would trade Street is if they are really in a money crunch.  I know their budget is tight, but I’m not sure it is tight enough to trade such a valuable player.

In a nutshell, I don’t think the Cubs should count on Marmol to be their closer, but I have to admit that the options to replace him are rather limited.  The bottom line for me is that the Cubs have a top-of-the-line starting rotation and they need to have a dependable arm closing out games for them.  I don’t know for sure who that steady arm will be, but I do know that Carlos Marmol is anything but steady.

In my next report, I’ll wrap up this series and put together a proposed 25 man roster for the 2010 Cubs.

In the field, the Cubs would prefer to add a center fielder and move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  If that center fielder is a middle-of-the-order run producer, all the better.  The team will also be looking for a second baseman, unless they can find a good shortstop, which will force Ryan Theriot over to second base.

The starting pitching staff is pretty well set, but the bullpen is a bit in flux.  Will John Grabow re-sign?  More importantly, do the Cubs want to enter the 2010 season with Carlos Marmol as their closer?

Over the next few days, I’ll take a look at the team and give my thoughts on what the Cubs brain trust should do this offseason to get ready for 2010.  Today, I’ll start with the infield.

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First Base — There’s little doubt who will play first base next year.  Derrek Lee will be entering the final year of his contract in 2010 and there’s no reason to believe he’s going anywhere.  However, the question of who is going to back him up is a good one.  Lee has missed playing time over the past couple of years with a pinched nerve in his neck.  If the problem flares up again, who will play first base?

Within the organization, Micah Hoffpauir is the first guy that comes to mind.  Jake Fox is another.  Both guys are considered “offense-first” type of players, but I think both showed this past year that they can do a credible, if unspectacular, job in the field.  Although Fox is generally considered the more potent offensive threat, they put up very similar number in 2009.  Hoffpauir bats left-handed, which may carry more weight in the decision than it should.  Fox is more versatile in the field.

Another option is for the Cubs to sign a fairly low dollar free agent who could back up at first base and be a dependable bat off the bench.  Someone on the back side of their career that can accept a backup role and can be an additional veteran presence.  Someone in the mold of Tony Clark or Kevin Millar comes to mind.  The knock against bringing in someone like Clark or Millar is they probably won’t put up any better numbers than Hoffpauir or Fox, but they will probably cost more.  That’s a good point.  So unless you feel that the veteran presence is that important, stick with Hoffpauir or Fox and save your money.

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Second Base — We found out in 2009 that Mike Fontenot is not the answer to the second base question.  The Cubs also have Aaron Miles, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco on the roster and all three can play second base.  Even so, I don’t think any of them is the answer the Cubs are looking for at second.

In my opinion, Aaron Miles does not have a role to play on the 2010 Cubs.  He needs to be traded or released.  I know that releasing him will cost some money, but keeping him on the team will waste a valuable roster spot.  If you can trade him, great, but be willing to release him if you have to.

I envision Jeff Baker playing the role of a poor man’s Mark DeRosa.  He impressed in his time with the Cubs last year and I can see him coming back in an expanded role.  I don’t foresee him as the everyday second baseman, but rather as a super sub.  He can play several positions and do a credible job at all of them.

Andres Blanco is an interesting player.  He’s known for his awesome defense, but what people don’t know is that his offense has improved since joining the Cubs.  My understanding is that Blanco battled injuries during the early part of his career and did not get the at-bats he so desperately needed.  Now that he is healthy, his offense is improving and is becoming a much larger part of his game.

Although it would not be my first choice, I could see a middle infield made up of Theriot and Blanco.  I’d prefer Blanco at short and Theriot at second, but the other way around could work as well.  In my opinion, the Cubs should only consider this if they can’t find a more suitable solution via free agency or a trade.

Some possible free agent targets the Cubs might consider are Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson and Akinori Iwamura.  I’m almost certain that Figgins will be too expensive (four or five years at $10 million/year?).  Also, he’s somewhat of a hot commodity at the moment, so there will be considerable competition for him.

Hudson is a little more realistic, but considering that he was beaten out of his starting job with the Dodgers by Ronnie Belliard, the bloom is a bit off this rose.  Even so, Hudson put up respectable numbers in 2009 (.283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI) and might be a good fit for the Cubs.  He’s neither the speed demon nor the middle-of-the-order run producer they want, but he’d likely do a better job than the in-house candidates.

Iwamura is an interesting possibility.  He’s currently with the Rays and they have an option on him for next year that will cost them $4.25 million.  The Ray are likely to opt for the buyout ($250,000) rather than pick up his option.  They have other less expense possibilities at second base, so Iwamura will likely be a free agent.

In 2009, Iwamura had a hitting line of .290/.355/.390 in 69 games.  Again, he’s not a speed demon or a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he could still be a nice addition to a Cubs team that had trouble getting on base this past year.

A couple of other free agent possibilities include Mark DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez.  I like both of these guys, but I don’t think either one makes sense.  DeRosa is going to be 35 years old and he’s coming off of wrist surgery.  He was once an integral part of the Cubs, but that ship has sailed. 

Sanchez is an interesting possibility.  San Francisco has a club option on Sanchez for $8 million with a $600,000 buyout.  Opinion has been that the Giants will opt for the buyout, but would like to sign him for less money.  Sanchez will be 32 in 2010 and will be coming off knee surgery.  He’s expected to be 100% healthy by Spring Training.

I like Sanchez and he interests me if the price is right.  Problem is, I don’t think the price will be right.

Another interesting free agent name is Placido Polanco, who will be 34 next season.  Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBI for Detroit in 2009.  He’s a career .303/.348/.414 hitter, but at least initially, the market seems to be soft for him.  He made $4.6 million last year.  If he is willing to take a pay cut, he’ll be in the Cubs financial ball park.  If not, he’ll be playing for someone else next year.

Potential trade targets include Kelly Johnson (Atlanta) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore).  Roberts would obviously cost the Cubs much more that Johnson.  In fact, the only way Roberts could conceivably end up with the Cubs is if he is part of a package involving Milton Bradley.  I’ve pushed the idea of a Milton Bradley and others package for Roberts and Luke Scott.  I don’t know if either Jim Hendry or Orioles GM Andy MacPhail have jumped on that bandwagon yet, but I’ll keep beating the drum.

Johnson doesn’t seem to bring anything to the table that Baker or Blanco couldn’t provide.  He’s the type of player that Hendry has shown an interest in in the past, but I don’t think he makes sense for the Cubs.

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Shortstop — Unless the Cubs make some sort of unexpected move, Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop in 2010.  Let’s face it, despite the call for an all-star caliber shortstop by many fans, Theriot has done a more than credible job during his tenure.  In 2009, he hit .284/.383/.369 with 7 homeruns and 54 RBI.  And he only made $500,000.  What a bargain.

Blaco is another guy that could conceivable take over short and push Theriot over to second.  Eventually, I think Starlin Castro will do this anyway, so maybe it’s a good idea to get Theriot started at second now. 

Although I don’t expect the Cubs to bring in a shortstop via trade or free agency, there are a couple of names out there to consider.  I don’t foresee the Cubs getting in on Marco Scutaro, but there is a small chance they could take a flyer on Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada.  The reason I think these two guys may be on the Cubs radar is because I expect both to still be available at the end of the offseason for a relatively bargain price (ala Bobby Abreau last year).  It wouldn’t bother me to get a veteran shortstop for a year to hold the position for Starlin Castro in 2011.  However, I don’t expect it to happen.

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Third Base — With any luck, Aramis Ramirez will return healthy next year and will stay healthy all year.  He missed two months in 2009 with a shoulder separation and trying to fill his place in the lineup and in the field proved to be ctwo hallenges the Cubs were not up for.  So who will be Ramirez’ backup in 2010?

Jake Fox is one internal possibility.  He’s not going to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he did a better job there than many expected.  With some additional work, he might even be credible.

Jeff Baker is another guy that can fill in for Ramirez.  In fact, I never did quite understand why the Cubs didn’t give Baker more playing time at third in 2009 while Ramirez was injured.  As the team’s super sub, I would call on him to fill in at third when needed.  As such, I don’t foresee and moves to bring in a backup for Ramirez.

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Catcher — Who is the real Geovany Soto?  Did we see the real Soto in 2008 when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors and hit .285/.364/.504 with 26 homeruns and 62 RBI or was his .218/.321/381 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 2009 the real Soto?  I wish I knew.  I think the Cubs feel the same way.

Soto’s performance in 2008 was a pleasant surprise.  His minor league numbers didn’t lead people to think he would hit as well in a full-time MLB role as he did.  Now, after his performance in 2009, people are asking whether or not 2008 was just a fluke.

I have little doubt that the Cubs will enter the 2010 season with Soto as their starting catcher.  However, I’m not convinced that they will stick with him for very long if he struggles at the plate the way he did in 2009.

The Cubs will not look to replace Soto via trade or free agency, but they may look into bringing back free agent catcher Henry Blanco to act as a mentor to Soto.  There is some thought that Soto struggled in 2009 without the same influence that Blanco provided in 2008.  Blanco will be 38 years old, so the Cubs should not expect too much out of him, but if he can play the role of mentor to Soto and give him a day off every once in a while, bringing Blanco back on a one-year deal may be a good investment.

Having said all of this, I think it is fair to ask, what about Koyie Hill?  Hill was a capable fill in for Soto while he was on the DL and during his offensive struggles.  He deserves to be brought back.  Unfortunately, things don’t always work out the way they should.  Since Hill is out of minor league options, he may be moved as part of a trade.

It would not bother me to see Hill brought back next year, but the more important issue is putting Soto in a situation where he can  succeed.  If bringing Henry Blanco back improves Soto’s chances of repeating 2008, by all means, bring Blanco back and trade Hill.

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That’s it for the infield.  Next, I’ll look at what needs to be done with the outfield.

“Here’s the deal. Cubs GM Jim Hendry has been working the phones, and was doing so today, trying to move Bradley. Cubs people tell me Jim has been talking with several teams, so there appears to be no shortage of interest, something also reported by national baseball writer Ken Rosenthal, who cites baseball people as saying there is widespread interest in Bradley.

“Bradley can’t come back to the Cubs for several reasons:

–How does he walk into the clubhouse and face teammates who lined up last month in St. Louis to tell the writers they were glad Bradley had been suspended and that he ought to look in the mirror?

–What happens when Bradley says something provocative to the media in spring training? The Cubs do not want any more “Here we go again” moments.

–What would happen if Bradley goes 0–for-5 with 3 strikeouts in the home opener at Wrigley and the fans start booing again? Heck, what happens the first time he heads out to right field, the scene of all that “hatred and adversity,” to use Bradley’s term?

–The Cubs will have new owners any day now, and you have to believe the Ricketts family wants no potential public-relations disasters on its hands, courtesy of Milton Bradley.

“As I’ve written, if Hendry can create a market or even the perception of a market for Bradley, he might be able to get decent return and not have to eat all of the $21 million coming to Bradley over the next two years. Of course, Hendry is responsible for giving Bradley the three-year, $30 million contract in the first place.”

As usual, Mr. Miles is spot on.  Bringing Milton Bradey back in 2010 would be a bad idea on so many levels that it is hard to believe that anybody in the Cubs organization is seriously considering it.  My guess is that they’re not.

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Now that the Cubs have hired Rudy Jaramillo to be their hitting coach, Mark Potash of the Sun-Times thinks they should turn their attention to hiring Dave Duncan as their pitching coach.  Duncan is currently with the Cardinals (in case you didn’t know) and his contract ends at the end of this season.

According to Potash, Jaramillo may be the best hitting coach in the game today, but Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball history.  High praise indeed.  But he doesn’t stop there:

“With all due respect to Rudy Jarmillo, Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball history. He should be the first pitching coach in the Hall of Fame. He has a record of developing young pitchers, resurrecting old pitchers, squeezing one golden season out of the most mediocre of arms and turning your trash into his treasure that is unmatched anywhere in baseball. Nobody’s even close.”

But here’s the rub: Duncan usually goes where Tony LaRussa goes.  LaRussa’s contract is up at the end of this season as well.  The Cardinals want him back and he has indicated that he is not interested in managing anywhere else.  Of course, there have been persistent rumors that he doesn’t want to manage in St. Louis next year either.  One rumor has the St. Louis skipper sitting out 2010 in anticipation of several potential managerial openings in 2011.  If he does sit out in 2010, Duncan will be on his own.

There’s also the possibility that Duncan will be on his own even if LaRussa re-ups in St. Louis.  Duncan is very upset with the Cardinals front office for the way they handled the trade of his son, Chris Duncan, in a deal that sent Julio Lugo from Boston to St. Louis.  It has been speculated that Duncan will not consider a return to the Cardinals even if LaRussa returns as the manager.

I’m all for hiring Dave Duncan.  If he can have the same type of success with the Cubs that he has had everywhere else he has been, then by all means, sign him up.  Give current Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild his parting gifts and thank him for playing.  But at this point, I think this idea needs to be filed under “Long Shot.”

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I haven’t really thought this through, but should the Cubs stand pat with Carlos Marmol as their closer?  Next week I plan on writing a series on what the Cubs should do this off season and I’ll have to address this issue then, but for now, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com throws out a couple of interesting stats about the Cubs closer.

• Marmol was third in the league for hit batters with 12.  However, among relievers he was clearly first.
• Marmol had the worst walk numbers  in the National League among closers.  He walked 65 in just 74.0 innings.  The next highest total was 38.0 by the Mets Francisco Rodriguez and the Nationals Mike MacDougal.  Rodriguez pitched a total of 68 innings (while compiling 35 saves) and MacDougal pitched a total of 50.0 innings.  For those of you who are mathematically challenged (including me), that’s 7.90  BB/9 for Marmol, 5.02 BB/9 for Rodriguez, and 6.84 BB/9 for MacDougal.

So what’s my point?  I don’t have one yet.  I was just thinking out loud.  Next week I’ll revisit these numbers and come up with a verdict on whether the Cubs should keep Marmol in the closers role or look elsewhere for 9th inning relief.

The Cubs pitching staff is in pretty good shape for next year.  Starter Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will likely take the top four spots (barring any trades), with Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija fighting it out for the fifth spot.

The bullpen may also be pretty well set.  Two of the three pitchers listed above that will be competing for the fifth starter role will likely end up in the bullpen.  Carlos Marmol will be closing, which leaves four or five additional positions in the bullpen.

Assuming Angel Guzman is healthy, he’ll claim one spot.  John Grabow is slated to be a free agent, but the Cubs are working on an extension for him and he has indicated that he would like to return.  If he does, he’ll claim another spot.  The finally two or three spots will go to any combination of David Patton, Esmailan Caridad, Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub.  There’s also a chance that the Cubs may try to resign Aaron Heilman, who Miles points out had a decent second half this year.

It’s fair to say that the vast majority of the offseason action is going to be focused on the position players.  A little tweaking here and there (like resigning John Grabow) may take place, but don’t expect many changes to the pitching staff.

Caveat: Of course, this assumes that none of the Cubs pitchers are involved in trades.  My gut tells me that a couple of the guys listed above will not be Cubs when the 2010 season rolls around.

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Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago (the “other” Bruce) has a new article up wherein he says:

The most likely scenario in the offseason will have the team allowing right-hander Rich Harden to test the free-agent waters. The Cubs will not offer arbitration to Harden, who was their top strikeout pitcher in 2009. Credit should be given to the Cubs’ medical and training staff, which did a fabulous job keeping the oft-injured pitcher on the mound the last year and a half. And to Harden’s credit, the extra work he did last offseason was also a key factor in his ability to make 26 starts this season.

No disrespect to Mr. Levine, but I think he’s wrong.  I expect the Cubs to offer arbitration to Harden and I expect Harden to turn it down, thus giving the Cubs a second round draft pick from the team that eventually signs him (Harden is a type B free agent). 

As a type B free agent, Harden knows that it is more likely that a team will sign him, potentially even to a multi-year deal.  They will not be as shy about signing him as they would have been had he been a type A free agent.  So it’s in the Cubs best interest to get something for him.  Worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and the Cubs end up with a good pitcher with the potential to be great if he can stay healthy.

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2009 is the 25th anniversary of the Cubs 1984 NL East winning season.  It was the first time since 1945 that a Cubs team had gone to the post season, so for Cubs fans, the 1984 team and season was very special.

Tony Arnold from WBEZ in Chicago is interviewing the various members of that 1984 team, including league-MVP and future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg remembers the season vividly, including the excitement at Wrigley as the season wore on, peopler gathering on the rooftops across from Wrigley for the first time, as well as specfic games and plays.  Take a listen to what Ryno remembers about the great 1984 season.