Zambrano will be paid for his time away from the team, so for all intent and purposes, there was no suspension.  It’s unclear how long the anger management training will last, but my understanding is that players can only stay on the restricted list for a maximum of 30 days.

Of course, this is good news for the Cubs.  Had Zambrano remained suspended, the Cubs were going to be stuck with having only 24 players on the big league roster.  However, MLB rules allow teams to replace a player on the restricted list, meaning the Cubs can go with the traditional 25 man roster.

So what now?  What happens when Zambrano is done with anger management training and is ready to resume his place in society?  A lot of people feel Z should be waived or traded.    In my last post, I explained why trading Zambrano might be easier said than done.  In a nutshell, Z is:

• Underperforming
• Owed $45.4 million
• Has a no-trade clause in his contract

These things would make it tough, but not impossible, to trade the big right-hander.

Despite the difficulty involved in putting together a trade, our friends over at MLB Trade Rumors.com put together a list of potential trades the Cubs could make involving Zambrano.  They include:

• Zambrano to Houston for Carlos Lee
• Zambrano to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand and Edgar Reteria
• Zambrano to the Mets for Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo
• Zambrano to Atlanta for Derek Lowe
• Zambrano to Cleveland for Travis Hafner, Kerry Wood, and Jake Westbrook
• Zambrano to Kansas City for Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, and Kyle Farnsworth
• Zambrano to the Yankees for A.J. Burnett

One of the commenters at MLBTR then floated the possibility of:

• Zambrano to Baltimore for Brian Roberts

As MLBTR pointed out, some of these trades would require that the Cubs also kick in a portion of Zambrano’s rather hefty salary.

A lot of people feel the Zambrano to the Mets rumor has the most possibilities.  The Mets are in need of starting pitching, Perez is holding the team hostage by refusing to go to the minor leagues to work out his pitching problems, and the Mets desperately want to move Castillo and his contract.  The Mets have been keeping their eye on a possible trade with Seattle for Cliff Lee, but one of the Mets trading chips, minor leaguer Jenrry Mejia, went down with an injury, making a Cliff Lee deal less likely.  Moving quickly on Zambrano could shore up their pitching staff without disturbing their farm system.

New York is a place that Zambrano might fancy.  He views himself as a big stage kind of guy and he might just jump at the chance to remake himself on the biggest stage in baseball.

Of course, the Cubs have some say in the matter and my hope is that they say “no way.”  Perez is a mess and Castillo is both not very good and overpaid.  Why trade one problem for two? 

Of course, this brings up the question, is it even necessary/desireable to trade Zambrano?  For me, the jury is still out.  Last year, I strongly fell on the side of trading Milton Bradley at all costs.  He was a malcontent who did not care about playing well or helping the team.  Zambrano seems to be just the opposite, although I’ll be quick to admit that he is going about being a team player in the wrong way.

In a conversation Z had with former teammate Kevin Millar following his suspension, Z explained that he was trying to fire up the team and was not trying to call out any one person, including Derrek Lee.  He also admitted that he knew he wasn’t the right person for the job, considering his own struggles.  However, when no one else stepped up, his frustration got the best of him and he threw a tantrum.   Obviously, not the best course of action, but I do appreciate his desire to fire up the team and win baseball games.

Having said that, Zambrano has a long track record of inappropriate behavior during his career.  The most significant was beating up his battery mate, Michael Barrett.  So I don’t want to paint Zambrano as a guy who is simply full of passion and who wants to fire up his team to play better.  Z has issues, there’s no doubt about that.  Even so, I don’t think the Cubs are in the same boat with Z that they were with Bradley.  They don’t have to trade him come hell or high water.

Even so, Hendry should keep his eyes out for a potential trade.  Zambrano is not irreplaceable.  If Hendry’s old buddy Andy McPhail calls and wants to discuss a Zambrano for Brian Roberts trade, by all means, Hendry should listen.

In case you haven’t seen it yet, here’s the video of Zambrano’s latest meltdown, complete with commentary from the insufferable Steve Stone:

In a nutshell, Zambrano had a very difficult first inning, giving up two doubles, a single, and a three-run homerun to the White Sox Carlos Quentin.  At the end of the half-inning, Zambrano returned to the dugout and went nuts.  He started screaming at everyone within earshot and seemed to aim the brunt of his vitriol at Derek Lee, presumably because Lee did not dive to make a fantastic play on Juan Pierre’s double down the first base line.

Lee took exception to Zambrano’s tirade and the two came face-to-face before Lou Piniella and Alan Trammel intervened.  For his part, Piniella sent Zambrano home in a scene reminiscent of Milton Bradley’s early exit from a game against the White Sox at U.S. Cellular last year.  To put a bit of icing on the cake, Zambrano destroyed another Gatorade cooler and then treated the cameramen waiting outside U.S. Cellular to an expletive-filled rendition of his greatest hits.

Following the game, Cubs GM Jim Hendry announced that Zambrano had been suspended indefinitely for his actions, which Hendry described as “not acceptable.”  MLB and the Player’s Association will each conduct an investigation of the incident before it is determined exactly how long the suspension will last.  Last year’s suspension of Bradley lasted the remainder of the season.  However, that suspension occurred in the middle of September when the season was almost over.  My guess is that Zambrano’s suspension will not last more than two or three weeks.

In the post-game press conference, Piniella indirectly defended Lee by pointing out that the balls hit by the White Sox were hit really hard and that one of them (the homerun to Quentin) ended up in the stands.  Piniella went on to say that Zambrano would, at the very least, be required to apologize to his teammates before he would be allowed to return to the Cubs clubhouse.  He later announced that, once he returns, Big Z will be returning to the bullpen, replaced in the rotation by Tom Gorzelanny.

After being sent home early, Zambrano rather publically went to dinner with White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen and his family.  Z has been roundly criticized for having dinner with the opposing manager, especially after being suspended from his own team earlier in the day.  I’m less critical.  I’m sure the arrangements were made far in advance and I’m not sure how having dinner with Guillen makes the situation worse.  However, I will admit that the better decision may have been to postpone dinner to a more settled time.

I want to give kudos to both Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella for the consistent way they have handled the situation.  They caught some flack last year both when Bradley was sent home from a game early and when he was suspended in September.  Some even suggested that the treatment was racially motivated.  Handling Zambrano the same way Bradley was handled is right and appropriate.  It sends a signal that bad behavior will not be tolerated, regardless of your race or the size of your contract.

Of course, that brings up the question, considering that Bradley never played another game in a Cubs uniform following his suspension, what’s going to happen to Zambrano?  The situation is a bit difference.  In the case of Zambrano, Hendry does not have the luxury of the off season to make a trade.  Also, Zambrano is owed about $45 million over the next two-and-a-half years; about twice as much as Bradley was owed.  Finally, Z has a full no-trade clause.  If he chooses to, he can block any trades Hendry might be able to make.

Hendry should be working the phones to gauge interest in Zambrano, but my guess is it’s going to be a tough sell.  To move the 29-year old pitcher, Hendry will likely have to eat a large portion of the contract or he’ll have to take on another bad contract in return.  Zambrano will also have to agree to any trade.

Another option is to just put Zambrano on waivers.  Let’s see if any other team will come along and claim Z.  Perhaps it will turn into an Alex Rios situation where Toronto just let the White Sox have Rios without making a trade.  The Sox just claimed his contract.

Watching the Cubs at this point is like watching a train wreck.  You don’t really want to see the carnage, but you just can’t turn away.  And while Zambrano’s antics add a bit of interest to an otherwise uninteresting season, both Hendry and Piniella are right.  Zambrano’s behavior is unacceptable.

Derrek Lee continued his hot hitting going 7-9 in the series with the Dodgers.  In the first game of the series, Lee drove in all threre of the Cubs runs on an RBI single and a two-run homer.  Lee has now pushed his season hitting line up to .246/.352/.391 with 6 homeruns and 23 RBI.

The Cubs pitching was also very good during the three-game set with the Dodgers.  The Cubs staff managed to shut out LA in the two Cubs victories and only gave up 8 hits in the those two games.  Dempster got the victory in game one and Ted Lilly was credited with the win in game two.

However, not everything is peaches and cream for the Cubs.  First, Aramis Ramirez is suffering from an injured thumb and missed the series with LA.  He had a cortisone shot on Thursday and it is hoped that he is ready for the first game of the series with the Cardinals on Friday at Wrigley.  But even getting Ramirez back in the line-up is not such a great thing.  He is hitting just .160/.225/.269 on the year and he has not shown any signs of breaking out of his season-long slump.

Carlos Zambrano was taken to the hospital yesterday after complaining of severe stomach pain.  Doctors feared he was suffering from appendicitis, but tests came back negative.  There was no word on what may have caused his lower intestinal discomfort nor when he might be ready to play again.

Jeff Baker got the start at third base on Thursday, but had to leave the game in the eighth inning when he completely lost sight in his right eye.  That according to Carrie Muskat on MLB.com via Twitter.  I’m no doctor, but that sounds pretty serious.  Let’s hope it is nothing too bad and that Baker regains sight in his right eye very soon.

UPDATE: Jeff Baker saw the Cubs opthamologist following yesterday’s game and was diagnosed with an ocular migraine.  The report I read didn’t say if his vision had returned or if he would be ready to play this weekend.

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What a weird year it has been in Major League Baseball.  Just look at the standings.  At the moment, the Reds are in first place in the NL Central with St. Louis trailing by a game.  That’s not a complete shock.  The Reds were picked by some prognosticators before the season to be a pretty good team.  I, on the other hand, said I didn’t think they would be very good and I still expect them to fall off the pace.

In the NL East, although the Phillies are leading the division, only 3.0 games separate the Phils from the last place Nationals.  Atlanta has struggled, but is just 1.5 games back of the Phils, with the Mets pulling into third place, 2.0 games out of first place.

The Padres, who were projected to be the worst (or at least one of the worst) team(s) in the NL currently have the best record in the league.  Heading into the weekend, they have a record of 28-19  and lead the NL West.  The Dodgers are 2.0 games behind the Padres and the Rockies are 3.0 back.

In the AL East, most people thought Tampa Bay would be good, but I’m not sure they thought the Rays would be as good as they have been so far this year.  With a record of 33-15, they are 4.5 games ahead of the Yankees and 6.5 games up on the third place Red Sox.  Even Toronto, who started quick out of the gate, has a record of 27-22.  With that record, the Blue Jays could be leading either the AL Central or West.

In the AL Central, Minnesota leads the division by 1.5 games over Detroit.  The White Sox, who are seven games under .500, are in third place, followed by the Royals and the hapless Indians.

The AL West is all topsy turvy.  Most “experts” thought the AL West would be a race between the Angels and the Mariners.  At the moment, the Angels and Mariners are fighting it out for third place in the division.  LA is 23-26 while Seattle has a record of 18-28.  The class of the division at the moment is the Texas Rangers who sport a 26-21 record.  They are currently 1.5 games up on Oakland.

I’m sticking by the picks I made earlier in the year.  Even so, I have to admit that the way that some teams are playing — both good and bad — has been a surprise.  I guess that why they bother to play the games.

The first game of the series was won in extra innings when Aramis Ramirez hit a two-run walk off home run off Rockies pitcher Matt Belisle.  The homerun was just Ramirez’ fourth of the year.

In the second game of the series, Ryan Theriot and Starlin Castro each had two RBI to help lead the Cubs to victory.  Tyler Colvin got the start in left field and went 3-4 with an RBI.

Following the second game of the series, Lou Piniella announced that he was going to move Zambrano back to the rotation.  Actually, that’s not exactly what he said.  What he said was that he was going to move Z out of the 8th inning set-up role and stretch him out for longer appearances.  He was rather vague on whether or not this meant that Z would return to the starting rotation.  I think he will, but Piniella would not just come out and say that.

I know there are people who are still critical of trying Z in the set-up role, but I think it was worth a try.  The starting rotation has not suffered (which doesn’t say a lot for Zambrano) and the bullpen kind of stablized with Z out there.  Unfortunately, I don’t think the experiement worked as well as Piniella had hoped.  Z did okay, but he wasn’t the difference maker that the Cubs needed.  He also continued to pitch the same way he had as a starter, meaning he didn’t really let loose of the fast ball.  He paced himself too much and I think that hurt him.

It will be interesting to see who gets knocked out of the starting rotation to accomodate Z’s return.  Carlos Silva should be sent to the pen just because he’s right handed and he is experienced.  However, he’s won five games for the Cubs this year and he doesn’t deserve a demotion.  Tom Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has pitched well, but has a record of 2-4, despite a respectable 3.04 ERA.  If he wasn’t left handed, it would be a lot easier to predict his demotion to the bullpen.  However, the Cubs already have three lefties in the pen, so I’m afraid adding Gorzelanny would be overkill. 

Another option is that the Cubs could trade Gorzelanny away.  It may be too early for that, but Gorzelanny has not hurt himself this year.  He has been solid and would be a good #4 or #5 starter on a lot of teams.

Time will tell.  For now, the Cubs head to Philadelphia for a two game series tonight and tomorrow before heading to Texas to start interleague play with the Rangers over the weekend.  Tom Gorzelanny gets the start tonight against the Phillies 87-year old pitcher Jamie Moyer.  The outcome of Gorzelanny’s performance tonight could determine his fate for the remainder of the year…or at least the near future.

The Cubs outscored the Brewers 25-4 during the three game set.  In the Cubs 12-2 victory on Sunday, Ryan Theriot led the hit parade by going 5-6 with a double and three RBI.  The outburst raised his batting average to .329.  Tyler Colvin got the start in center field and went 3-4 with a double, home run, and three RBI.

In Sunday’s tilt, Randy Wells earned the victory.  He went 7.0 innings giving up seven hits and two earned runs.  He struck out six and allowed zero walks (that’s a nice ratio).  Ryan Dempster earned the win in the first game of the series on Friday, and on Saturday, Ted Lilly made his season debut by coming off the DL for the win.  Carlos Zambrano made his first appearance of the season out of the bullpen, going 1.1 innings and allowing two hits and one earned run.

Earlier in the week, the Cubs offense looked like it might be waking up, and it left no doubt over the weekend in Milwaukee by pounding out 41 hits.  The Cubs started the week with only two players (Mike Fontenot and Koyie Hill) hitting over .300.  By week’s end, eight different Cubs (Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Koyie Hill, Geovany Soto) are hitting over .300.  Unfortunately, both Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are struggling at the plate.

The Washington Nationals come into Chicago for a three game set at Wrigley this next week.  After the Nationals, the Cubs will host the D-Backs in a four game series beginning on Thursday.

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What are the Cubs going to do about finding a bullpen arm to handle the 8th inning?  Zambrano can fill in just fine for a while, but keeping him in the bullpen long term is probably not in the cards.

The Royals placed reliever Juan Cruz on waivers and rumor has it that the Cubs will be interested in bringing Cruz back to Chicago.  However, there has been some talk that Cruz did not leave the Cubs under the best of circumstances during his previous stint with the club.  The rumor is that he was a distration in the clubhouse, although the rumors are rather short on details.  Even if the Cubs are interested in signing Cruz, there’s a good chance that they will not be the only team interested in claiming him off waivers.

Another possibility is making a trade for a bullpen arm.  One candidate the Cubs likely have their eye on is Heath Bell.  The San Diego closer has been a hot name on the trade market since the beginnig of the season.  It’s likely that the Padres would want a king’s ransom for the right hander.  Would the Cubs be willing to part with two or three players/prospects for Bell?  And if they traded for him, would he handle the 8th inning for Carlos Marmol or vice versa?

Another possible trade with San Diego that hasn’t been talked about quite as much involves the Padres Mike Adams.  Adams is 31-years old and has closer-quality stuff.  He currently serves as the Pads set-up man.  I don’t think the Cubs would have to give up as much for Adams as they would for Bell, and Adams might be an even better fit.

If the Cubs don’t sign a reliever off waivers or trade for one, then they’ll have to look at bringing up one of their young arms.  The most likely candidate (at least in my mind) is Andrew Cashner.  Cashner is a former highly regarded college closer from TCU that the Cubs are in the process of turning into a starter.  I’d like to see him given a chance to serve as a set-up man in the big leagues.  Cashner is currently 1-1 pitching for AA Tennessee.  In 24.1 innings he has a 3.33 ERA and has struck out 29 while walking seven. 

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Following Saturday’s win in Milwaukee, Lou Piniella said that he would not be using Carlos Zambrano in back-to-back games, at least not for a while.  At first I disagreed with this decision, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense.

Zambrano is used to have at least five days rest between starts.  He’s not used to the bullpen, nor is he used to pitching without substantial rest between his appearances.  Of course, he will be throwing many fewer pitches in relief than he did as a starter, but I think it makes sense to allow him to settle in.  I don’t think it will take long for Zambrano to get used to his new role though.  In 10 days to two weeks he should be ready to start going on back-to-back games.

In essense, the argument being put forward by most people unhappy with the Zambrano-to-the-pen move has been some combination of the following:

• Zambrano was the team’s opening day starter and you don’t move the opening day starter to the bullpen, especially before the month of April is even finished.
• Zambrano makes more than $18 million per year and you don’t pay an 8th inning set-up man that kind of money.
• Zambrano is the team’s “ace” and who ever heard of moving your ace to the bullpen?
• Zambrano doesn’t “deserve” to be demoted to the bullpen.  Either Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva should have been given the bullpen role. 
• Moving Zambrano to the bullpen is a desperate move and makes the Cubs look stupid.  The bullpen should have been figured out prior to the season, not in the first month of the season.

 Let’s take a look at each of these arguments to see if they really make any sense:

Zambrano was the team’s opening day starter and you don’t move the opening day starter to the bullpen, especially before the month of April is even finished. — While it is true that Zambrano was the opening day starter for the Cubs, I am unaware of any rule — written or unwritten — that says that the opening day starter can not be moved to the bullpen.  It really is very simple.  You do what you have to do to win ball games.  The Cubs believe that they can win ball games by moving Zambrano to the pen.  As for doing it in April, if it helps the team win ball games, doesn’t it make sense to do it earlier in the season rather than later?  Why wait for the Cubs to be out of the NL Central race in July or August to make the move?

Zambrano makes more than $18 million per year and you don’t pay an 8th inning set-up man that kind of money.  — It doesn’t matter.  Zambrano’s contract should not prevent the Cubs from using him in any manner they believe will help them win.  Granted, it’s unorthodox, but I applaud the team for thinking creatively.  Eventually, a long-term solution will be found for the bullpen.  In the meantime, you have to move someone to the bullpen who you think can get the job done.  The size of that player’s contract is not one of the things you should consider.

Zambrano is the team’s “ace” and who ever heard of moving your ace to the bullpen. — You might have an argument if Z was really the ‘ace” of the staff.  But the truth is that both Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly have outpitched Z over the past couple of seasons.  This season, all of the starters are out pitching Z.  So this argument is fatally flawed from the get-go.

Zambrano doesn’t “deserve” to be demoted to the bullpen.  Either Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva should have been given the bullpen role. — This isn’t a matter of “deserve.”  Zambrano isn’t being punished by moving him to the bullpen.  He is being moved there to help shore up the bullpen and help the team win.  There are also very good reasons not to move Gorzelanny or Silva to the pen.  First, Gorzelanny is left handed and the bullpen already has three left handers in it (Sean Marshall, John Grabow, James Russell).  Having too many left handers in the pen can be a real disadvantage.  Silva has been lights out so far this year.  Sure, he could turn back into a frog at any moment, but why would you want to move a potential frog into the 8th inning role?  Plus, both Gorzellany and Silva are potential trade candidates and the Cubs want to showcase both pitchers in case a trade can be worked out.

Moving Zambrano to the bullpen is a desperate move and makes the Cubs look stupid.  The bullpen should have been figured out prior to the season, not in the first month of the season. — Moving Zambrano to the bullpen is a desperate move.  I agree.  The Cubs are a desperate team and desperate teams make desperate moves.  Would it be better to make no move and appear calm while continuing to lose?  I don’t think so.  As for looking stupid, the jury is still out on that question.  If Zambrano moves to the bullpen and the move starts helping the Cubs win more games, then the move will be viewed as genius.  It’s all in the results.  Should the bullpen situation have been worked out prior to the season?  Absolutely, but that doesn’t really address the Cubs’ situation now.  What should have happened during the off season doesn’t have any bearing on whether or not Zambrano should be moved to the bullpen.

I said it before and I’ll say it again, Moving Z to the bullpen is all about winning.  The Cubs believe that moving Z to the 8th inning set-up role (or maybe 7th and 8th set-up role) will help the Cubs win.  That’s all there is to it.  Extraneous considerations (i.e. salary, opening day starter, “ace,” etc) should be thrown out the window.  They simply don’t matter. 

Consider this:  The Cubs have allowed more runs (16) in the 8th inning so far this year than any other team in MLB.  The have also allowed more runs in the 7th and 8th innings combined (32) than any other team.  This isn’t a time to “tweak” the bullpen.  The ineptitude of the pen so far this year calls for a bold move.  Moving Z to the pen is a bold move. 

Zambrano has the stuff and the mental make-up to do well in the bullpen.  His presence in the bullpen can help the team win.  And that should be the only thing that matters.

Before you have a canniption fit, let’s think about this rationally.  Of the Cubs five starters, who has been the weakest thus far this season.  I think it’s fair to say that Zambrano holds that dubious distinction.  I know that you’d expect the answer to be Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva, but that’s not the case.  Both have outpitched Z in the early going.

So if one of the starting pitchers has to be moved to the bullpen to make room for Ted Lilly’s return from the DL, who should it be?  It seems to me that the guy struggling the most in the rotation should be the guy moving to the pen.

But there’s another aspect to this move.  As you probably know, Zambrano is a terrific all-around athlete.  He prides himself on his hitting abilities and despite his heft (which is down considerably this year), he can dunk a basketball.  Plus, Z has the mentality of a kid on a sandlot.  He loves to play, regardless of the game.  A new challenge might just fire him up.

In an article written by Paul Sullivan of Chicago Breaking Sports, Zambrano said he was fine with the move and even thought about it himself before manager Lou Piniella approached him with the idea.  Z said he’s up for the challenge and wants to do whatever he can to help the team.

And here’s the thing that semi-excites me: I think Zambrano is going to be really good in the pen.  I can see him handling the 7th and 8th innings – territory where the Cubs have struggled mightily this season.  I can also see Z being strong enough to handle two innings of relief in back-to-back games. 

The downside to this experiment is going to come when it’s time to move Zambrano back into the rotation.  He’s stretched out now to throw 120+ pitches.  I don’t know exactly what toll it will take on Z to be in the pen or how long it will take him to get stretched out again, but I’m fairly certain that spending much time in the bullpen will lessen the number of pitches he is able to throw in an outing.

Of course, that’s a problem for the future.  For now, the Cubs need to win baseball games and they need a capable bullpen in order to do that.  Adding Zambrano to the bullpen makes the bullpen stronger without significantly weakening the starting rotation.

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Once Ted Lilly returns from the DL, roster moves are going to have to be made.  We already know that Zambrano will be moving to the bullpen, but who’s going to be leaving the bullpen?

Jeff Samardzjia should be going down to AAA to get his act together.  However, I don’t think that is the move that the Cubs are going to make.  I think we’re probably going to see James Russell make the trip back to Iowa.  This, despite being one of the few effective arms in the bullpen so far this year (notwithstanding his last outing). 

It appears to me (and everyone else on the planet) that the Cubs overspent on Samardjzia and they are giving him every opportunity to earn his keep.  Unfortunately, that hasn’t worked so far and there really is no reason to believe it will happen anytime soon.  Samardjzia has been a bust and the Cubs front office is having a very hard time coming to terms with that bit of reality.

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I’m getting ready to go to another Cubs game.  This time I’ll be heading to Cincinnati to see the Cubs take on the Reds on Sunday, May 9.  I’ve never been to Great American Ballpark  before, so I’m really looking forward to the experience.

Let me climb up on my bully pulpit for a moment and blast the Cincinnati Reds for having the absolute worst ticketing system in the world.  It took me three days to order tickets and I had to go through the online ordering system, an automated voice response system, and finally a live person (I didn’t think they had any) to get it done.

Dealing with the automated voice response system was maddening.  I speak at a normal volume (maybe a bit more than normal) and I speak clearly.  Despite that fact, the system couldn’t understand what I was saying.  To add insult to injury, the disembodied voice would occasionally interrupt what I was saying to tell me she couldn’t understand me.

To make the experience just a wee bit worse, when I told “Cindy,” the live person I spoke to about how bad the automated voice response system was, she couldn’t have cared less.  I know she’s just a cog in the wheel and didn’t design the automated voice response system, but that shouldn’t have stopped her from caring (or at least acting like she cared).

Rergardless, I’m going to the game…and hoping I never have to buy tickets from the Reds again.

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Closer
• What Can You Get For $140 Million? Starting Pitchers

My theory going into this series of posts was that by virtue of having the third highest payroll in all of baseball, the Cubs should have one of the best players at almost every position.   Of those players, two-to-four should be perennial all-stars.

I recognize that having one of the best players in baseball at almost every position is expensive.  That’s why I think a high payroll team still needs to have one or two young, inexpensive players.  However, those players should not just be roster filler.  They may be young and inexpensive, but they should also be extremely good.  An example of such a player would be Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox.  David Wright of the Mets was also this type of player a few years ago.  Geovany Soto may be such a player today, although the jury is still out.

To determine if the Cubs roster meets this criteria, in each post I ranked the Cubs players against the starters from each of the five other highest payroll teams.  Then, I considered whether or not the Cubs player was among the top players at their position.  Here’s how the Cubs players ranked against the players at the same position for the other five highest payroll teams:

• First Base — Derrek Lee (5 out of 6)
• Second Base — Mike Fontenot (6 out of 6)
• Shortstop — Ryan Theriot (4 out of 6)
• Third Base — Aramis Ramirez (3 out of 6)
• Catcher — Geovany Soto (2 out of 6)
• Left Field — Alfonso Soriano (3 out of 6)
• Center Field — Kosuke Fukudome (4 out of 6)
• Right Field — Milton Bradley (4 out of 6)
• Closer — Kevin Gregg (5 out of 6)
• Starting Pitchers — Carlos Zambrano (5 out of 30)

                                    Ted Lilly (12 out of 30)
                                    Rich Harden (13 out of 30)
                                    Ryan Dempster (17 out of 30)                                            
                                    Randy Wells (18 out of 30)

Kind of confusing, isn’t it?  I know.  One of the main reasons is because my hypothesis was wrong.  I thought that comparing the Cubs’ roster to the rosters of the five other highest payroll teams would work because I incorrectly assumed that the other five highest payroll teams would have some of the best players in baseball at each position.  Having looked at every position from each of these teams, it’s obvious that these other five teams do not have one of the top players at each position.  Each of these teams is built differently, but none of the teams has been able to build a starting line-up made up of some of the best players at each position, not even the Yankees.

Although my hypothesis was wrong, I’m not ready to give up on my belief that the third highest spending team in baseball should have some of the top players in the game on their roster.   So, do the Cubs have some of the best players in the game on their roster?

Our research showed that two Cubs, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, were among the best at their position in all of baseball.  Alfonso Soriano was close when he was signed, although he has fallen off recently.  Soriano gets a bad rap from people who are quick to forget what a terrific hitter he was earlier in his career.  If he can regain some of his previous hitting ability, Soriano can still be a top left fielder.

Geovany Soto is a tough call.  Was the 2008 version of Soto the real deal, or was the 2009 version the one we’ll see in the future?  Either way, I can’t fault the Cubs for handing him the starting job in 2008.  He was one of those young, inexpensive players I talked about previously.  It remains to be seen which Soto shows up in 2010.

The Cubs pitching staff also qualifies as among the best in baseball.  The real weakness is that 1) the Cubs don’t have a true ace, and 2) the pitching staff as currently constituted will not be as good in 2010 as it was in 2009.  The loss of Rich Harden and Ted Lilly’s inability to pitch for the first month or more of 2010 will take its toll on the Cubs.

What about the other positions?  Starting Fukudome and Bradley in center and right field respectively was uninspired.  Acquiring Bradley was a clear mistake that forced Fukudome to move from right field, where he was good, to center field, where he wasn’t so good.  Neither player qualifies as one of the best at their position, making the Cubs outfield one of the weakest among contending teams.

Ryan Theriot straddles the line between mediocre and poor among shortstops.  He combines the ability to be nothing special on defense with a below average OPS+.  The Cubs need a top shortstop and Theriot doesn’t qualify.

Mike Fontenot is among the worst second basemen in baseball.  He is not the type of player a club with a $140 million payroll should have in their starting lineup.  Even so, as of this writing, the Cubs appear ready to give Fontenot another shot in 2010, unless Jeff Baker, a more versatile but equally as bad second baseman, can unseat him.

Finally, the Cubs had one of the weaker closers in baseball as their closer in 2009.  There really was nothing in Kevin Gregg’s history that indicated that he could be a top-notch closer.  However, he was relatively inexpensive, so Jim Hendry signed him and hoped for the best. 

As I conducted my analysis, I kept coming back to this last statement.  Jim Hendry has a history of signing players and hoping for the best.  He signed Milton Bradley to be a middle-of-the-order run producer, even though Bradley had never shown the ability to fill that role before.  That fact, and Bradley’s past behavior should have given Hendry pause.  But instead, Hendry signed Bradley and hoped for the best.

He signed Gregg and hoped for the best, despite the fact that there really was no evidence in his past history that indicated that Gregg could be a reliable closer.  It should have been clear that Gregg was not the type of closer a contending team would want on their roster, yet Hendry took the leap of faith.

Finally, there was nothing in Mike Fontenot’s background that should have indicated to anyone that he could be a successful everyday second baseman on a contending team, yet Jim Hendry handed him the job and kept his fingers crossed.  The unnecessary risk back fired badly and he’s done nothing this off season to correct the problem.

The Cubs have not done a good job of spending their money.  They have the third highest payroll in baseball, yet they have a roster that is more reminiscent of a middle-of-the-pack team.   And it’s Jim Hendry’s job to make sure this doesn’t happen.

I’ve been a big supporter of Hendry’s over the years.  However, after taking an in-depth look at the roster, I can’t help but come to the conclusion that he has not done a good job of building this team.  A change in perspective is needed, and I don’t think that change can take place by keeping the same people in their current positions.

The Cubs needed a change in culture a few years ago.  They needed to stop thinking of themselves as small spenders.  They are a large market team with one of the highest revenue sources in the game, and they needed to start acting like one.  That happened under the direction of John McDonough and Jim Hendry.  The Cubs also rebuilt their farm system under the direction of Jim Hendry.

Now, another change is needed.  The Cubs need to view themselves as players for most every big name free agent.  They need to be viewed as a likely destination for top players when they are put on the trading block.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Hendry is the man for the job.  Although he has shown a capacity to trade for players that are being dumped by their current team, he has not shown much ability or willingness to trade his own players or top prospects. 

The Curtis Granderson situation earlier this off season was a good example.  Despite his shortcomings, Granderson is considered one of the top center fielders in baseball.  He would have been a perfect fit for the Cubs.  Even so, Hendry was unwilling to get too deeply involved.  Detroit wanted top prospects in exchange for Granderson.  The Yankees were willing to deal their prospects in exchange for a proven commodity.  Hendry refused to include the Cubs top prospects in any sort of deal.  As he has done in the past, he has deemed some unproven, but highly regarded prospects as untouchable.  This approach cost the Cubs a difference maker in center field and all they have to hang their hats on is the potential of some of their young players.

The botton line to all of this is that the Cubs need to get better.  The need to spend their money to build a perennial contender.  They need to change the way they build their roster.  As much as I like and respect Jim Hendry, I’m not convinced that he’s the guy to make the shift in approach and get the job done.

My opinion is that the Cubs, by virtue of having the third highest payroll in baseball, should have have some of the top players in the game on their team.  Year-in and year-out the Cubs should have five or six of the top position players in their starting line-up, three or four all-stars, and a couple of younger, less expensive players who are capable and on the verge of stardom.

In this series of posts, I’m examining the Cubs roster to see if they are meeting this expectation.  I’m analyzing the roster position by position.  To read previous posts, check out these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Closer

Today, I’d like to look at starting pitchers.  Today’s analysis is going to be a little different than previous posts.  Because we will be looking at 30 starting pitchers rather than just six position players or closers, there won’t be room to rank each player based on stats from the previous two years.  Instead, I’ll compile the stats behind the scenes, and list the overall rankings here.

Also, although I’ll be considering 2008 stats (as well as career stats), I won’t be ranking the pitchers for 2008 as I have done in  previous posts.  The overall ranking will be for 2009, although again, previous and career stats will be considered.

 When it comes to ranking starting pitchers, there’s a lot of subjectivity that comes into play.  For instance, one pitcher may have better stats than another, but they may not have been as consistent as another pitcher or haven’t been performing at as high of a level.  A lot of things go into ranking the pitchers and I’ll be the first to admit that my own biases come into play.

Also, keep in mind that the ranking is based on the start of the 2009 season.  So a pitcher that had a teriffic 2009 may not rank as highly as you might think.  Stats from 2009 are considered, but they are discounted a bit since the GM could not have known going into the season how well (or poorly) the pitcher would do.

With all of this in mind, here is how I ranked the starting pitchers for the six highest payroll teams:

1. C.C. Sabathia (Yankees)
2. Johan Santana (Mets)
3. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
4. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
5. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
6. Cole Hamel (Phillies)
7. A.J. Burnett (Yankees)
8. J.A. Happ (Phillies)
9. Andy Pettite (Yankees)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox)
11. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
12. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
13. Rich Harden (Cubs)
14. Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
15. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
16. Tim Wakefield (Red Sox)
17. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
18. Randy Wells (Cubs)
19. Rick Porcello (Tigers)
20. Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees)
21. Jamie Moyer (Phillies)
22. John Maine (Mets)
23. Brad Penny (Red Sox)
24. Brett Myers (Phillies)
25. Edwin Jackson (Tigers)
26. Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers)
27. Armando Galarrraga (Tigers)
28. Mike Pelfrey (Mets)
29. Tim Redding (Mets)
30. Oliver Perez (Mets)

Space prohibits me from defending or explaining each pitcher and their place in the rankings, but let me explain a few.  At the top of the list, there is a good argument to move Jon Lester up to the top and move Johan Santana down a few spots.  I was satisfied that Sabathia belonged at the top of the list, but I struggled a little with Santana.  I think some people would have moved Beckett ahead of Lester as well.  Wherever you put these pitchers, I think it is clear that they will end up at or near the top.

I’m afraid I might be letting my Cubs fan side come out a little too much by ranking Zambrano ahead of Hamel, especially following Hamel’s 2008 performance.  I think there is a strong argument to move Hamel and J.A. Happ above Zambrano, but in the end I decided to stick with Big Z.

Some will say that Harden is ranked too high while others will say he is too low.  I think Harden is a heck of a pitcher.  When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best.  Unfortunately, he has had a difficult time staying healthy and he has a habit of not pitching very deep into a game.  If Harden would start pitching deeper in games, I’d gladly move him up in the rankings.  However, at least based on 2009, it appears that he needs to stay at around five innings per game to stay healthy.

Is Tim Wakefield ranked too high?  I’ve always really liked Wakefield.  I think he’s one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  He’s consistent year-in and year-out.  Because of that, I think he gets taken for granted.

Did I rank Randy Wells too low?  Based on his 2009 performance, I did.  However, as a rookie heading into 2009, not a lot was known about him.  Was 2009 the real deal?  We’ll have to wait and see.  For now, I don’t think he deserves to be ranked any higher.

The bottom third of the list can probably be flip-flopped a lot of ways.  One thing is certain though.  The back end of the starting rotations for the Tigers and Mets is really weak.

Even when you consider all of the other starting pitchers in baseball, the Cubs look pretty good.  Zambrano is not a true ace, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the top 20-25 pitchers in baseball.  Should the Cubs have a true ace?  Yeah, probably.  But I’ll save that argument for another day. 

Bottom Line: When it comes to starting pitching, the Cubs did pretty well.  They have one of the top five starters (of the six teams surveyed) and their other starters all rank in the middle ten.  Pitching was a strong suit for the Cubs in 2009.  In fact, I think a strong argument can be made that the Cubs starting pitching staff helped them to a winning season despite the offensive woes the team experienced throughout the year.

Things are not looking quite so rosy for 2010.  Rich Harden is no longer with the club and Ted Lilly will miss a month or more at the beginning of the season while he recovers from shoulder surgery.  In addition to counting on Randy Wells to repeat his 2009 performance, the Cubs are expecting some or all of Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardjzia, and Mike Parisi to step up and fill a role in the starting rotation.

For our purposes, it’s safe to say that the Cubs had one of the stronger rotations in baseball in 2009.  At least as far as the starting rotation goes, the Cubs spent their money wisely.

So now that we’re beginning our descent of Off Season Mountain, what can we expect from the Cubs in the weeks ahead?

The Cubs are in a tough position.  They presumably have very little money to spend, but they still have at least three holes to fill.  Some would say the Cubs have “needs” rather than “holes.”  I’m not sure which is technically correct.  The point is that the Cubs have viable options in-house to address their needs, but they would be better off looking elsewhere for help.

One such position is second base.  In-house, the Cubs have Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, neither of whom should be a starting second baseman on a legitimately contending team.  The Cubs have the fourth highest payroll in MLB (based on 2009 figures), but have one of the weakest second basemen in all of baseball.  That’s just not right.

Another option at second for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot.  If he moves to second, the Cubs will need to find a stand-in  for a year at SS until prospect Starlin Castro is ready (the Cubs wouldn’t bring Castro up at the beginning of 2010, would they?)  One in-house option at SS is Andres Blanco.  He’s a slick fielding SS, but a weak hitter.  The up-the-middle defense would be good, but the offense would be even weaker than it was last year when Fontenot was starting at second.

If there’s any money available, the Cubs could improve the team by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year deal.  Of course, I’m sure that Hudson would like a multi-year deal for $4-$5 million per year (he made $3.38 million plus bonuses last year), but considering the current state of the free agent market, that’s unlikely.

Another guy to consider is the guy that sent Hudson to the bench last year in Los Angeles: Ronnie Belliard.  He’s another guy who is seemingly being shunned in free agency.  He made $1.9 million last year and probably won’t command much, if any, more this year.

The idea is to find a second baseman who can be had on a cheap ($1-$3 million) one-year deal, but who will also make the team better.  Either Hudson or Belliard are better options than what the Cubs currently have in-house.

If the Cubs decide to look to the free agent market for a SS, there are only two guys they should consider, but the odds are that neither one will meet the criteria of being cheap and willing to take a one year deal.  The two shortstops, Orlando Cabrera and Miguel Tejada, would both be upgrades, but likely out of the Cubs league.

Another position that needs attention is starting pitching.  The Cubs enter the season with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells as the only pitchers certain to be in the starting rotation.  Ted Lilly will start the year on the DL, so Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia will battle it out for the other two spots in the starting rotation.  No matter who emerges from that group, it doesn’t make the starting rotation very strong.

Rumors have been circulating that the Cubs are interested in adding Ben Sheets.  I’m all for signing Sheets, but I heard initially that he was seeking a contract for $12 million/year.  More recently, I’ve read that his demand is more in the $7-$9 million range.

I like Ben Sheets and when he is healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he’s coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of baseball for the entire 2009 season.  That’s not the kind of guy you want to spend a lot of money on or who you want to give a multi-year contract.

If Sheets’ price comes down to $3-$4 million for one year, I can see the Cubs getting involved (along with a host of other teams).  But at his current asking price, he’s not only out of the Cubs range, but also a bad risk.

Finally, the Cubs could use another bullpen arm.  In my opinion, this is the one need that the Cubs could probably fill in-house.  They have a depth of decent bullpen arms.  Even so, this appears to be the position where Jim Hendry is focusing his efforts.  Rumor has it that he is targeting the Blue Jays Jason Frasor.  I don’t know what the Cubs would have to give up to get Frasor, but I really have to question the wisdom of adding an arbitration-eligible bullpen pitcher who made $1.45 million last year when the team has other needs.

Honestly, I don’t expect any big moves out of the Cubs the remainder of the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs went into Spring Training without making any moves.  I hope that doesn’t happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

**********

Are the Cubs moving their Spring Training home to Florida?  I still think it’s a long-shot, but the Naples effort got a boost recently when the Collier County Hotel and Lodging Association voted unanimously to approve use of the County’s tourist tax to build a new stadium for the Cubs.

The move was important not only because it cleared the way to use proceeds from the tourist tax to help fund building the Cubs a new training complex, but also because it showed the Cubs that the hoteliers are completely on board with the proposal to bring the Cubs to Naples.  Cubs President Crane Kenney made it clear that the Cubs only want to go where they are wanted.  So the unanimous vote to use proceeds from the tourist tax was an important step forward for the Naples effort.

A few weeks ago, the Cubs announced that they had eliminated a proposed Spring Training site on the Gila River Indian Community in  Arizona.  That leaves Mesa, AZ and Naples as the only two remaining possibilities.