The problem is that on the surface, it doesn’t look to me like the Cubs roster stacks up to the rosters of the other highest payroll teams.  To find out, I’ve set out to compare the Cubs roster to the five other highest payroll teams to determine exactly where the Cubs stand. 

To read more about what I’m trying to accomplish and the methodology I’m using to accomplish it, take a look at my initial post of the series.  You can also read my thoughts on the other positions I’ve already covered.

• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base

Today, I want to look at how the Cubs stack up at shortstop.  Ryan Theriot has been the Cubs starting shortstop since 2007.  In that time, he has established himself as a solid, if unspectacular ball player. 

One of my beliefs in doing this series of analyses is that by spending nearly $140 million and being the team with the third highest payroll in baseball, the Cubs should have one of the top players at every position.  So the question I’ll be looking at today is, do the Cubs have one of the league’s top shortstops in Ryan Theriot.

Let’s start by looking at the players we’ll be comparing;

• Derek Jeter (Yankees)
• Jose Reyes (Mets)
• Ryan Theriot (Cubs)
• Adam Everett (Tigers)
• Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
• Jed Lowrie (Red Sox)

The inclusion on Jed Lowrie in this list may raise some eyebrows.  Nick Green actually got the most at-bats at shortstop for Boston in 2009.  Both Alex Gonzalez and Julio Lugo had more AB’s at short than Lowrie.  But in Spring Training prior to the 2009 season, Lowrie and Lugo were fighting it out for the chance to start at short.  The competition was close and Lowrie won out when Lugo went down with an injury toward the end of Spring Training.  Because he was the Red Sox opening day shortstop, I’ll be using him as Boston’s representative in this analysis.

So, how do these six shortstops stack up based on 2009 salary?

Derek Jeter ($20 million)

Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million)

Jose Reyes ($5.7 million)

Adam Everett ($1.55 million)

Ryan Theriot ($500,000)

Jed Lowrie ($414,000)

That’s quite a spread, from the least expensive to the most expensive.  Just as with second base, it doesn’t appear that the Cubs are overspending at shortstop.

Before I analyze 2009, I like to take a look at the stats from 2008.  It gives me a base to start from and shed some light on what team’s may have been thinking heading into the 2009 season.  Let’s start by looking at how the shortstops rank based on 2009 WAR:

1. Jose Reyes (WAR 5.7)
2. Jimmy Rollins (WAR 5.3)
3. Derek Jeter (WAR 3.9)
4. Ryan Theriot (WAR 3.1)
5. Jed Lowrie (WAR 1.9)
6. Adam Everett (WAR 0.3)

Theriot is solidly in the middle of the pack, just behind Derek Jeter.  That’s not bad at all.  How do the players rank based on 2008 OPS+?

1. Jose Reyes (OPS+ 118)
2. Jimmy Rollins (OPS+ 103)
3. Derek Jeter (OPS+ 102)
4. Ryan Theriot (OPS+ 92)
5. Jed Lowrie (OPS+ 90)
6. Adam Everett (OPS+ 62)

This list tells you a couple of things.  First, the rankings are exactly the same as they were for 2008 WAR.  That isn’t always the case.  Second, while Theriot was again solidly in the middle of the pack, his OPS+ was lower than the average player in Major League Baseball.  That’s not a good sign.

Next, let’s move on to 2009 WAR.  Here’s how the players ranked:

1. Derek Jeter (WAR 7.4)
2. Ryan Theriot (WAR 2.8)
3. Jimmy Rollins (WAR 2.4)
4. Adam Everett (WAR 0.9)
5. Jose Reyes (WAR 0.7)
6. Jed Lowrie (WAR 0.0)

There’s a lot to say about this list.  First, Derek Jeter had a great year in 2009.  He hit .334/.406/.465 with 18 homeruns and 66 RBI, and he led the Yankees to a World Series Championship.

Ryan Theriot was second on the list, despite the fact that his 2009 WAR ranking was actually lower than it was in 2008.  Theriot was helped by the fact the Jimmy Rollins had a sub-par year in 2009 and Jose Reyes missed much of the year with an injury.  One of the reasons I like WAR as a statistic is that it takes into consideration how much a player plays.  The idea is that you can help your team if you’re not on the field.

Jed Lowrie suffered the same fate of a low WAR due to injury.  He fractured his wrist during the second week of the season and played very little after that.  According to his WAR score, a replacement called up from AAA could be expected to provide as much production over the course of a full season as Lowrie produced in just 68 ABs.

Let’s move on to OPS+:

1. Derek Jeter (OPS+ 132)
2. Jose Reyes (OPS+ 100)
3. Jimmy Rollins (OPS+ 86)
4. Ryan Theriot (OPS+ 83)
5. Adam Everett (OPS+ 59)
6. Jed Lowrie (OPS + 21)

Again, Jeter’s great year is reflected in his OPS+  Theriot is again in the middle of the pack, but his OPS+ indicates that he is a below average hitter when compared to other MLB players.

You probably have noticed that Adam Everett scored low in every list above.  How does he keep getting starts for Detroit?  The answer is that he is a superior fielding shortstop.  Having him at short helps Detroit’s pitchers, but hurts their offense.  In the past, Detroit has had so many big bats, they could afford to give up a line-up spot in exchange for excellent defense at short.  Everett will never rank well offensively, but he’s among the best defensively at shortstop.

So let’s bring it all together by ranking the six shortstops:

1. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
2. Jose Reyes (Mets)
3. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
4. Ryan Theriot (Cubs)
5. Adam Everett (Tigers)
6. Jed Lowrie (Red Sox)

As you’d expect, Derek Jeter leads the pack.  Considering his salary, he should be far and away the top shortstop on the list.  For me, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are a close call.  I went with Reyes over Rollins because of his slightly higher career OPS+, but honestly, it could go either way.

Theriot leads the second half of the pack.  He’s a decent fielding shortstop with a significantly better bat than Adam Everett.  Everett is obviously the superior fielder, but for me, he simply gives up too much offensively.  Jed Lowrie has too short of a track record to make a really good call on him.  The only thing I can say is that he hasn’t shown enough yet to warrant a high spending team handing him their shortstop job.  Boston must have felt the same way since they went out and signed Marcu Scutaro to play short for them in 2010.

Of course, the question we are trying to answer here is, do the Cubs have one of the top shortstops in the game on their roster.  The answer by almost any measure is almost assuredly “no.”  Although he scored decently among the five shortstops I compared him to, he pales even further when compared to other top shortstops.

I think it’s fair to say that shortstops like Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki are much better than Theriot.  Others, such as Scutaro, Erick Aybar, and Elvis Andrus are also better than the Cubs shortstop.  In addition, there are arguements to be made that Stephen Drew, Jason Bartlett and Yunel Escobar are Theriot’s superior.  Add to that list Miguel Tejada who may not be as good as he once was, but is still probably better than Theriot is and it becomes clear that Ryan Theriot is not one of the top shortstops going forward.

At this point, Theriot is just a placeholder for up and coming prospect Starlin Castro.  The Cubs are counting on Castro to be the shortstop they have been searching for since Don Kessinger (or at least Shawon Dunston).  Theriot may turn into a good second baseman, but at this point, he wouldn’t be a top second baseman either.

Bottom Line:  The middle of the Cubs infield is far inferior to the middle infields of the other highest spending teams.  Having Mike Fontenot start at second base is a farce, and having Ryan Theriot at shortstop is not too far behind.

Theriot is a servicable shortstop, but he is not the caliber of shortstop the third highest payroll team in Major League Baseball should be writing in their lineup on a daily basis.  The one good thing you can say is that the Cubs aren’t overpaying for the privilege of having a middle-of-the-road shortstop.

In fact, let me talk about money here for a second.  Even on a high dollar ball club, the team needs a couple of players who 1) are very good at their position, and 2) who don’t cost a lot.  This helps the team pay for the very best players at the other positions.

The Cubs will be taking a risk by handing the shortstop job to Starlin Castro (if, in fact, they do).  However, at least they have some reason to believe that Castro is going to be a very good MLB shortstop.  He’s had a very good minor league career and he was one of the best players in the 2009 Arizona Fall League.  He’s not a sure-thing (no one is), but he’s a good bet.

If Castro can fill the shortstop job and become one of the top shortstops in the league, then the Cubs will have found a way to upgrade at the position without having to divert any/much money from their payroll.  That’s important.  However, the Cubs cannot continue to run out second and third level players and expect to achieve their goal of winning the World Series.  They must have players who are among the best for their position to achieve that goal.  With a payroll of nearly $140 million, bringing these players to the northside of Chicago should not be a problem.

Even though his slash line took a hit in 2009, Granderson hit a career high 30 homeruns, all the more impressive since it was done while playing in Detroit’s spacious ball yard.  Granderson appears to be a “buy low” opportunity.  His trade value is down from a year or two ago, but his potential remains high.

Chicago newspaper columnists are almost giddy with excitement over the potential of the Cubs trading for Granderson. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times was more subdued when he said ” given the ideal fit provided by the Chicago-area native (i.e. Granderson), conversations between the teams appear inevitable.”  Phil Rogers of the Tribune and ChicagoBreakingSports.com was much more excited.  The headline of his article, Cubs Must Go After Granderson, gives you an idea of where he stands on the subject.

Rogers praises Granderson’s on-field play and off-field involvement in the community.  He calls Detroit “crazy” for thinking about trading him, and then becomes almost apoplectic when he says “The Cubs should do absolutely everything to get him, if he is available. There’s no debate about this.”

Rogers then starts the trade talks by offering up Carlos Marmol and Starlin Castro.  I’m not very high on Marmol as a closer, but at the moment, he is the only one the Cubs have.  Also, I’m not ready to annoint Castro the second coming of Derek Jeter or Ozzie Smith, but he does appear the heir to the throne at shortstop.  Is this really the price that the Cubs want to pay for Granderson?

Thankfully, Phil Rogers’ trade offers do not obligate the Cubs in any way.  It is true that Granderson would be a good fit for the Cubs in center field.  I’m not sure where he would fit in the line up.  His numbers seem to be better suited for the middle-of-the-order than leadoff, but that’s an arguement for another day.  For now, let’s focus on what price the Cubs would have to pay to acquire Granderson.

First, let’s look at money.  Granderson is signed through 2012 and is owed a total of $23.75 million.  His contract also has a club option for 2013 for $13 million with a $2 million buyout.  All tolled, Granderson is guaranteed to make $25.75 million over the next four years.  He’s not cheap, but his contract is not outrageous either.

Next, who would the Cubs have to give up to get Granderson?  Rogers’ offer of Marmol and Castro is too high.  I wouldn’t make Castro untouchable, but for this deal, I’d take him off the table.  I’d be willing to trade Marmol, but only if the Cubs have a really good idea of who is going to replace him.  As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think the Cubs should go into 2010 counting on Marmol to be their closer, but at the moment, he’s the only one they have.

Other names could include Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauir, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot, and Aaron Miles (if they’ll take him).  A few of these guys are non-tender candidates, but they still have value.  Sean Marshall is another valuable trade chip.  He deserves a shot as a starter somewhere, but it appears that he’s not going to get that shot with the Cubs again this year.

The Cubs minor leagues have some interesting trade candidates.  Darwin Barney is one guy who is proving himself in the minors, but who will likely not have a place to play when he’s ready for the big leagues in a year or two.  J.R. Mathes led the Iowa Cubs in wins last year, but doesn’t appear to have a future on the big league staff.  Rather than let him rot in Iowa (no offense to the Great State of Iowa), why not use him as trade bait.

These are just a few options.  I don’t know what the Tigers would want in return for Granderson other than salary relief.  The Cubs have some valuable players they can send Detroit’s way.  The important thing now is to keep Phil Rogers away from the negotiations.

**********

Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago said in a radio interview that the Cubs will announce a Milton Bradley trade in the next 3-4 days.  He mentioned the Rangers, Rays, Mets and Tigers as possible trade partners for the Cubs.  

The Rangers are starting to not make sense to me if Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated is correct that the Rangers would only be willing to pay $5 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years.  The Rays also do not make sense.  If the Cubs send Bradley to Tampa Bay for Pat Burrell, they will have to turn around and trade him, likely picking up a portion of his contract.

The Mets don’t make sense on a couple of levels.  First, although they would like to move Luis Castillo and his remaining two years and $12 million contract, they have already said that they are not interested in Bradley.  Also, New York isn’t exactly the quiet, laid-back small market Bradley needs.   The Cubs may have interest in Castillo, but a third team would probably have to get involved for a deal to work.

The Tigers could be interesting on several fronts.  First, I’ve already talked about Curtis Granderson.  The Cubs could use him, but there’s no way that the Tigers trade him straight up to the Cubs for Bradley.  Might the throw in Dontrelle Willis?  He has been largely ineffective for the Tigers and he is owed $12 million in 2010.  Jim Hendry likes his reclamation projects, but D-Train is awfully expensive.  Even so, I would rather pay Willis $12 million to play for the Cubs next year than I would to pay Texas $16 million over two years for Bradley not to play for the Cubs.

The Tigers also have some interest in trading Magglio Ordonez.  He is owed $18 million in 2010 and he has a vesting option for 2011 for $15 million.  The 2011 option vests if he starts 135 games or gets 540 plate appearances in 2010, or he gets 270 starts or 1080 plate appearances between 2009 and 2010.

Ordonez can still be a dangerous hitter, but he’s becoming more of a DH than an everyday position player.  In 2009, he played right field in 104 of the 131 games in which he played.  That number will likely go down in 2010.  Plus, the Cubs would really like to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  Adding Ordonez wouldn’t allow that.

I don’t know where Milton Bradley is going to end up or who the Cubs might get for him, but it will sure be nice not talking about him anymore.  It will also be nice being able to move on with the off season.