Of course, now I’m old and smart, and I know that “hope springs eternal” are the first three words in Alexander Pope’s poem, An Essay on Man.  The poem was written in 1733, before baseball was even invented.  Although to hear some Cubs fans, you’d think that was the same year the Cubs started training in Mesa.  But I digress.

Despite the fact that I now know the origin of the phrase, I can’t help but associate it with Spring Training.  After all, at the beginning of Spring Training, all team’s are tied for first and fans from each team have reason to hope that this is the year their boys of summer will bring home the prize.  Well, at least that’s how it’s supposed to be.

The truth is that fans for several teams know that their teams don’t stand a chance of making the post-season, let alone win a World Series championship.    That’s not how it’s supposed to be in professional sports.  The rules of the sport are supposed to make the playing field even — or as even as possible — for all teams.  In this respect, baseball fails miserably.

Once again in 2010, the team with the highest payroll (Yankees) will outspend the team with the lowest payroll (Pirates) by more that five times.  Not only does that not create an even playing field, but it creates a situation where the lowest payroll team has absolutely no chance of competing.  Under baseball’s current rules, the Pirates are simply fodder used to fill out the schedule.

And the Pirates are not alone.  They are joined at the bottom of the payroll ladder by the Nationals, Rangers, Athletics, Marlins, and Padres.  All teams that have very little chance of posting a winning record and virtually no chance of making the post-season.

I can hear the naysayers now saying that the Rangers were competitive in the weak AL West just last year.  That’s true, but the AL West is better this year and the Rangers will likely not be as good. 

The naysayers also point to the Marlins who, despite league leading low payrolls have won two World Series titles since 1997.  Again, true, but the Marlins are the exception.  If it takes a miracle for a team to rise to the top, then the playing field probably isn’t very level.

Many fans point to the Yankees for outspending every other team.  I am not a Yankee basher, at least not in this context.  Baseball is flush with money.  At a time when other sports are seeing their revenues decrease (some substantially), baseball actually saw an increase in revenue in 2009.  Attendance was down, but revenue was up.  In fact, according to Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball,  MLB’s revenues hit a record $6.6 billion in 2009.

That means that teams have more revenue sharing money coming in for the 2010 season.  Even so, teams at the bottom of the payroll ladder continue to spend less on payroll than they receive in revenue sharing.

At one time, I was in favor of a salary cap for MLB that included a minimum amount team’s had to spend on payroll.  I was never completely comfortable with the idea of a salary cap, but I couldn’t think of any other way to even the playing field.

Then last November, I ran across a column by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com in which he did a fantastic job of explaining the problem and offering a solution.  In his article, Stark pointed out that as many as 10 teams (one-third of all MLB teams) receive more in revenue sharing and TV/radio rights (local and national) than they spend on payroll.  (That figure is up to 13 of the 30 teams based on 2010 projected payroll figures)

In my original post on this subject, I explained Stark’s solution to the problem like this:

Stark then offers a solution than I like much better than my original salary cap solution.  Stark suggests that MLB continue to tax the highest spending teams just as they do now, but also start taxing the lowest spending teams.  Set payroll parameters that discourage the wealthiest teams from spending their competitors into oblivion, but which also encourage the “poorest” teams to spend the money they receive from the central fund, revenue sharing, and local TV rights to improve their teams and to compete on the field.

As Stark points out, this proposal will not cure all of MLB’s ills, but it will improve competitive balance and the play on the field.  And once competitive balance is established, many of MLB’s problems will seem much less important.

For years, the NFL has bragged about the parity they have been able to achieve.  On any given Sunday, any one team can beat any other team in the NFL.  Not so in MLB.  Every year, there are teams that don’t stand a chance of being competitive, let alone have hopes for the post-season.  Instead of creating parity, MLB has created a parody of what a competitive, well-run league should look like. 

For fans of two-thirds of the teams in MLB, hope springs eternal again this year.  Some teams may be long shots, but at least they stand a chance.  Not so for the other one-third of teams.  Before the season even gets started, they are out of the running.  For fans of those teams, “hope springs eternal” doesn’t hold any special meaning.  It’s simply a line from a poem.

Trade Candidates

Melky Cabrera — After trading for Curtis Granderson, the Yankees suddenly have a surplus of good, young outfielders.  They may be interested in trading either Cabrera or Brett Gardner.  If the Cubs could snag Cabrera, they would be getting a guy that hit .274/.336/.416 for the Yankees in 2009 with 13 homeruns and 68 RBI.   The switch hitting Cabrera is just 25-years old and earned $1.4 million in 2009.  As a fielder, UZR/150 says he’s just slightly above average, posting a rating of 2.3.  UPDATE: Cabrera has been traded to the Braves, so he’s now off the board.

Shin-Soo Choo — Choo is a 27-year old outfielder from Korea.  Last year with the Indians, Choo hit .300/.394/.489 with 20 homeruns and 86 RBI.  He also had 21 stolen bases and was caught just twice.  It was the best year of his major league career.  He is currently listed as the Indians starting right fielder, but Matt LaPorte is breathing down his neck and Cleveland may be interested in trading him.  Choo has only played a handful of games in center field, but he’s been an above-average left fielder in his career and an average right fielder, so I’m assuming he can handle center field.  Choo earned $420,300 in 2009 and is likely due for a raise.

Rajai Davis — The Oakland A’s are stock full of outfielders, potentially making Rajai Davis available.  Davis hit .305/.360/.423 with  3 homeruns and 48 RBI in 390 ABs.  he also had 41 stolen bases and was caught stealing 12 times.  UZR/150 likes Davis, giving him a 17.8 rating in center field in 2009.  The 29-year old davis (he’s not a kid) earned $410,000 in 2009 and will likely be in line for an increase in 2010.  Jim Hendry and Billy Beane have worked well together on deals in the past.  Might the get together this off season on Davis? 

Jacoby Ellsbury — Ellsbury could be the odd man out in Boston now that the Red Sox have signed center fielder Mike Cameron.  It’s unclear where Ellsbury will end up playing or even if he’ll be starting.  In 2009, Ellsbury hit .301/.355/.415 with 8 homeruns and 60 RBI.  He also stole an impressive 70 bases while getting caught just 12 times.  He’d look good at the top of the Cubs batting order.  Ellsbury gets gigged for his 2009 UZR/150 rating of  -18.3, but I’m not buying it.  Chris Moore at BaseballAnalysts.com took a look at Ellsbury’s defense and concluded that UZR/150 probably missed the boat.  Ellsbury is just 26-years old and could fill center field for the Cubs for years to come.  And at just $449,500 per year (his 2009 salary), he’s a bargain.

Dexter Fowler — Fowler is a good looking young ballplayer (I sound like Harry Caray) who hit .266/.363/.406 with 4 homeruns and 34 RBI in 2009 for Colorado.  He’s just 23-years old and is coming off his rookie season with a lot of promise.  UZR/150 didn’t like his fielding much, giving him just a -20.3 rating.  Fowler is currently blocked in center field in Colorado by Carlos Gonzalez, another promising youngster.  There’s no guarantee that Fowler is going to follow up his rookie campaign by continuing to develop, but I think it would be a fairly safe risk for the Cubs, especially considering that he is so inexpensive (he earned just $401,000 2009).

Brett Gardner — Who would you take from the Yankees, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner?  In 2009, Gardner hit .270/.345/.379 with 3 homeruns, 23 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 248 ABs.  He’s a terrific center fielder with a career UZR/150 rating of 27.6.  In a crowded Yankees line-up, it’s tough to say who will be the odd-man out, but it appears to be either Cabrera or Gardner.  Could Gardner be the Cubs center fielder of 2010 and beyond?

Gary Matthews, Jr — The Angels badly want to trade Matthews.  Here’s what the Cubs should consider:  He’s not much of a hitter anymore, he’s not a very good fielder anymore, and he’s very expensive.  Need I say more?

Nyjer Morgan — Washington acquired Morgan last year from Pittsburgh.  He put together a good year between the two teams, posting a hitting line of .307/.369/.388 with 3 homeruns and 39 RBI.  He also stole 42 bases in 2009.  Unfortunately for Morgan, he was stealing third base on August 28 against the Cubs when he broke his hand and missed the remainder of the season.  In 2009, Morgan posted an impressive 40.5 UZR/150 rating.  Not only could he handle center field at Wrigley, but he could also be the lead-off hitter that the Cubs sorely need.  But why would Washington trade him?  Good question.  Unfortunately, at this moment, I don’t have a good answer.  At 29-years old, Morgan is a bit of a late bloomer.  He made just $411,500 in 2009 and is going to be affordable for some time to come.

Cody Ross — Ross is not a kid like a lot of the people on this list.  He’s 29-years old (that’s not that old) and is a bit more of a known quantity than some of the other trade candidates.  What we know is that he hit .270/.321/.484 with 24 homeruns and 90 RBI in 2009 for Florida.  We also know that 2009 was the best year of Ross’ career.  But to be fair, Ross has been coming on strong since 2007.  He primarily plays center field, although he also spent time in right field and is currently listed as the Marlins starting right fielder.  In center field, Ross had a UZR/150 rating of -9.5 in 2009.  Ross earned $2.225 million in 2009 and accepted arbitration for 2010.

Aaron Rowand — San Francisco would like to move Rowand’s contract.  In 2009, the 32-year old center fielder hit .261/.319/.419 with 15 homeruns and 64 RBI.  He had a 1.5 UZR/150 rating and he earned $8 million on a contract that runs through 2012.  He is still owed $36 million.  The Cubs don’t need to bring in an aging outfielder who is on the down-side of his career and making a lot of money.  Although I like Aaron Rowand, I don’t think he is the answer in center field.

Grady Sizemore — To be honest, I don’t think the Indians have any interest in trading Sizemore, but I saw him on another list, so I thought I’d include him.  In 2009, Sizemore hit .248/.338/.445 with 18 homeruns and 64 RBI in what by Sizemore standards was a down year.  Sizemore is signed through 2011 and is owed $13.1 million.  His contract also includes an $8.5 million option in 2012 with a $500,000 buyout.  Sizemore had a -4.0 UZR/150 rating in 2009, but he has a career UZR/150 of 5.4.  I don’t think it matters.  He’s not going anywhere.

Denard Span — Would Minnesota be willing to trade Denard Span?  If so, the Cubs need to get to the front of the line.  In 2009,  the 25-year old Span hit .311/.392/.432 with 8 homeruns and 68 RBI.  And he did it for a cheap $435,000.  UZR/150 gave him a fielding rating of -7.4, but from everything I’ve read, he does a fine job in center field.  He has emerged as one of the top lead-off hitters in baseball and would be a good long-term investment for the Cubs.

Willy Taveras — I’m pretty sure that the Cubs could convince the Reds to trade Taveras for a couple of prospects.  Cincinnati badly needs to cut payroll and the weak hitting Taveras is owed $4 million in 2010.  Trading for Taveras would not be a good move.

Vernon Wells — Okay, I don’t think the Cubs should trade for him and his monster contract either, but I thought he should be listed anyway because he’s available.  I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Wells makes a lot of money.

Chris Young — Young is a 26-year old center fielder for Arizona.  He hit .212/.311/.400 in 2009 with 15 homeruns and 42 RBI.  His UZR/150 rating for 2009 was -9.8.  I’m not as high on Young as some people are.  I do think he has potential, but I’m not convinced he’s ever going to realize that potential.  He’s signed through 2013 and is owed $26.25 million over the next four years.  The contract also includes a club option for 2014 for $11 million with a $1.5 million buyout.  Although I included him in this list, my hope is that the Cubs don’t pursue him.

Eric Young, Jr. – The 24-year old Young is an interesting player for the Cubs.  He plays both second base and center field (just like his dad).  As it turns out, the Cubs need to fill both positions.  At the moment, Young is a reserve for Colorado, but he appears to be ready for prime time.  He only played in 30 games in 2009, and is eligible for Rookie of the Year in 2010.   Trading for Young would be a bit of a risk.  Does he have what it takes to be an all-star caliber big leaguer?

The real sin in all of this is that many teams are making more money from TV/radio rights and revenue sharing than they are spending on their payroll.  How can MLB allow team owners to do this?  It’s baseball’s dirty little secret, but at the moment, it’s not a very well kept secret.

Uber-agent Scott Boras recently made some comments that stirred the pot.  He claimed that there are teams receiving $80 – $90 million “before they ever sell a ticket” who are only spending $40 – $50 million on payroll.  To Boras, this is wrong and is a slap in the face of the fans who follow the team.

MLB was quick to respond.  MLB Executive Vice President Rob Manfred issued a statement dismissing Boras’ claims and indicating that the numbers he used ‘have no basis in reality.”  However, it seemed to me that Manfred purposely didn’t respond to the specific allegations Boras made.

In any case, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com took up the case and came to some interesting conclusions.

“If you live in Pittsburgh or South Florida, you’ve probably gotten so used to blaming The System for all your team’s problems, there’s an excellent chance you never noticed something every fan of these two “small-market” operations should know:

“Your team collected more money this season — before it ever sold one ticket — than it spent on its entire major league payroll. In fact, it collected more than it spent on its major league payroll and its player-development system combined.

“But it isn’t just the Pirates and Marlins who are cashing checks larger than their payrolls before the ticket offices open. By some estimates, a third of the teams in the sport are doing exactly the same thing.”

One-third all all teams spend less on payroll than they receive from TV/radio rights (local and national) and revenue sharing?  That seems impossible, but Stark backs up the contention.

According to Starks figures, which he gleaned from sources throughout MLB, each team receives a check from the central fund (which includes national TV rights, radio, Internet, licensing, merchandising, marketing, MLB International Money) totaling $40 million.  Every team also gets a check for revenue sharing, although the amount varies by team.  According to Stark, the five neediest teams get $35 million each, but no one apparently gets less than $20 million.  Local TV money varies, but all but one team makes at least $15 million per year from local TV rights and the other team makes at least $12 million per year.

According to Stark, the neediest teams in the game get at least $90 million before they sell a ticket.  He then subtracts $10 million from that amount for pension and operation fees, leaving $80 million.   Then Stark says:

“OK, now let’s head back to the payroll list. We count a minimum of a dozen teams, depending on how you define “total payroll,” that aren’t spending that same number — $80 million — on their major league payroll. So it isn’t just Scott Boras who has the right to ask: What’s up with that?”

Rob Manfred doesn’t dispute the figures, but says that the meaning of the figures has been misunderstood.

“When you evaluate a baseball team,” Manfred said, “you need to understand that these teams have expenses in addition to the 25-man roster on the field. They have multimillion-dollar benefit costs. They have the cost of paying 15 players on the [40-man] major league roster who are not in the big leagues.

“They have the cost of their player-development system, which averages $15 million [per team] a year. They have the cost of acquiring [amateur] players through the [June] draft and internationally, which averages $9 million [per team] a year. So for anybody to take a club’s revenues and say that 60 percent should go to major league payroll, that’s just a fundamental misunderstanding of this business.”

As Stark then correctly points out, MLB teams have many other income streams that are not included in these figures.  If you are going to list all of the expenses an MLB team has, you have to then also include all sources of revenue, including ticket sales, concessions, parking, sponsorships, souvenir sales, etc.

Stark then offers a solution than I like much better than my original salary cap solution.  Stark suggests that MLB continue to tax the highest spending teams just as they do now, but also start taxing the lowest spending teams.  Set payroll parameters that discourage the wealthiest teams from spending their competitors into oblivion, but which also encourage the “poorest” teams to spend the money they receive from the central fund, revenue sharing, and local TV rights to improve their teams and to compete on the field. 

I never liked the idea of a salary cap, but I didn’t see another way to make baseball more competitive and to level the playing field between the highest and lowest revenue teams.  Stark’s proposal accomplishes this without resorting to a salary cap.  Brilliant!

As Stark points out, this proposal will not cure all of MLB’s ills, but it will improve competitive balance and the play on the field.  And once competitive balance is established, many of MLB’s problems will seem much less important.

I was reminded of the need for a salary cap again today when I was reading a rather innocuous post on MLBTradeRumors.com.  In essense, the post said that the Pirates are looking to add one or two low-cost free agents, but again this off season, they won’t be a player for any big name free agents.  The same is likely true for the Marlins, Twins, Rays, Royals and Padres, and maybe a few other teams as well.

Imagine if you were a fan of the Pirates (or any of the other teams listed).  Every off season, you get to watch other more well-healed teams compete for big name free agents — the type of player that can make a huge difference for a team — while your team quietly sits on the sideline waiting to possibly scoop up the leftovers.  It must be a hopeless feeling.

Once the off season is over and the season is about to begin, the hopeless feeling you had in the off season is doubled because you know that your favorite team has virtually no chance of competing.  For the Pirates, their only hope for the 2010 season is that they might be able to finish ahead of the Reds in the standings, especially since the Reds are under pressure to cut payroll and will likely field a worse team in 2010 than they did in 2009.

Honestly, why would any sport want to run a league in a way that allows a team in it’s largest market to outspend a small market team like the Pirates by a factor of five-to-one?  Money may not buy championships, but it sure makes it a lot easier.

The Yankees payroll allows them to put an all-star at almost every position.  And when one player underperforms, they go out in the off season and sign a free agent to replace them or trade with a lesser-payroll team to get the best player at that position.  They are constantly reloading.  I’m not a Yankees fan nor am I privy to the philosophy of their front office, but I have to believe that the Yankees (and to a lesser extent the Red Sox) view the rest of Major League Baseball as an extension of their minor league sytstem.  When they need a player, if he’s not in their farm system, they can just go to Cleveland, or Florida, or Pittsburgh and trade for the player they need.

I don’t want this post to sound like a slam against the Yankees.  I don’t blame the Yankees in the least for the competitive imbalance that exists in baseball today.  The Yankees are simply playing by the rules and doing it well.  The Yankees are not the problem, the system is the problem.

Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated wrote a terrific article recently highlighting the inequities in baseball.  Posnanski writes that everyone knows the Yankees outspend every other team, but they may not fully comprehend how bad the problem really is.

“This is much starker than people think, by the way. I quickly went back and looked at the numbers before writing my column for SI.com, and I’m going to reprint them here because even as someone who has also grown sick of hearing about the Yankees payroll, I found them to be stunning:

In 2002, the Yankees spent $17 million more in payroll than any other team.

In 2003, the Yankees spent $35 million more in payroll than any other team.

In 2004, the Yankees spent $57 million more in payroll than any other team. I mean, it’s ridiculous from the start but this is pure absurdity. Basically, this is like the Yankees saying: “OK, let’s spend exactly as much as the second-highest payroll in baseball. OK, we’re spending exactly as much. And now … let’s add the Oakland A’s. No, I mean let’s add their whole team, the whole payroll, add it on top and let’s play some ball!”

In 2005, the Yankees spent $85 million more than any other team. Not a misprint. Eight five.

In 2006, the Yankees spent $74 million more than any other team.

In 2007, the Yankees spent $40 million more than any other team — cutbacks, you know.

In 2008, the Yankees spent $72 million more than any other team.

In 2009, the Yankees spent $52 million more than any other team…

So how can the commissioner of baseball promote such nonsense as Hope on Opening Day when the game is set up for one team to spend tens of millions more than anyone else?”

In an article by Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, Jim Hendry is quoted as saying Joshua didn’t do anything wrong.  He said Joshua was brought in from the minors to replace Gerald Perry in June and was told it was a temporary assignment.  Hendry also told Joshua at the time that he could have his old job back if things didn’t work out.

Later in the article, Derrek Lee is quoted as saying, “I hate to say it, but a hitting coach is overrated.”  He also said that neither Perry nor Joshua were to blame.  If a player doesn’t hit, it’s the player’s fault, not the hitting coach’s.

In addition to looking for a middle-of-the-order bat and a leadoff hitter in the offseason, Hendry will now also be looking for a hitting coach.  What promises to be a busy offseason just got a little busier.

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The season isn’t quite over yet.  Both the Tigers and Twins won yesterday, so they will play a one game playoff today at the Metrodome in Minnesota.  This is the second year in a row the Twins will be playing in a one game playoff.  They lost to the White Sox last year.

-edit- The one game playoff will be held on Tuesday (10/6), not Monday (10/5).

The other teams going to the post season in the AL will be the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox.  The Yankees will await the outcome of today’s game between the Twins and Tigers and will then host the winner.  The Angels will host the Wildcard winning Red Sox to start their best-of-five series.

In the NL, the Rockies will travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies beginnning Wednesday afternoon.  The Dodgers will host the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine beginning Wednesday night.

I’m picking the Yankees and Red Sox to survive in the AL, while the Phillies and Cardinals will play for the pennant in the NL.  All Division Series games will be broadcast on TBS

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Alex Rodriguez entered the sixth inning of yesterday’s game against the Rays needing seven RBI to hit 100 for the season.  Time was running out and it didn’t look like he would make it.  What happened next is a new AL record.

 Rodriguez came up with two on and belted a three run homer off Rays pitcher Wade Davis.  The homerun brought him closer to the century mark in RBIs, and Rodriguez thought he might get one more at-bat in the game.  But as the Yankees continued to batter Rays pitching, that at-bat came sooner than ARod thought it might. 

The Yankees half of the sixth inning continued and Rodriguez found himself in the on deck circle when the Rays intentionally walked Mark Teixeira to load the bases.  Rodriguez then delivered his second homerun of the inning, this one a grand slam, giving him seven RBIs in the inning and a new AL record.  His second homerun of the inning was also his 30th homerun of the season, giving him seven consecutive years of 30 or more homeruns.

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I’ve advocated for a salary cap in the past on these pages.  I’m less concerned with a cap controlling a team’s spending as I am in forcing teams like the Pirates and Marlins to spend a minimum amount.  As it is, these teams are spending less on player payroll than they receive in revenue sharing.

Another concern I have with the disparity in spending is that  lower spending teams have trouble competing.  Of course, those who disagree with me point to teams like the Twins who have been at least in the hunt for the plaoffs most of the past decade.  The Marlins are another example.  Not only have they made the playoffs, but they won the World Series, beating the high spending Yankees.

As I’ve said in the past, the low spending teams making the playoffs is the exception that proves the rule.  Murray Chass disagrees with me.  In a recent article, Chass makes the assertion that there is no problem with the system as is and that it should be left alone.  To prove his point, Chass offers the following:

These are the teams, according to their rank in the salary standings, that have made the playoffs the last 10 years. This year’s lineup includes the Tigers and the Rockies, who had not clinched their spots when this was posted. (number in parentheses is the number of teams in the top 8 that were in the playoffs):

• 2009 (6): 1-4-5-6-7-8-12-17
• 2008 (4): 2-5-6-7-9-10-15-28
• 2007 (5): 1-2-5-7-8-22-23-26
• 2006 (3): 1-5-6-12-14-17-19-21
• 2005 (4): 1-2-5-6-10-12-14-16
• 2004 (5): 1-2-3-7-8-11-12-19
• 2003 (3): 1-4-6-10-11-17-23-26
• 2002 (3): 1-4-7-10-13-16-27-28
• 2001 (4): 3-5-6-8-9-12-17-26
• 2000 (3): 1-3-5-12-15-18-25-27

Chass’ point is that in almost every year, there are lower payroll teams in the playoffs.  Here’s my point: In seven of the past ten years, at least four of the top eight highest payroll teams made the playoffs.  And in every one of those 10 years, four of the top twelve spending teams qualified for the post season.  So what you have is the top spending teams claiming four playoff spots every year and the remaining 18-22 teams fighting over the remaining four spots.

I’ll be the first to admit that spending a lot of money doesn’t guarantee a team a spot in the playoffs.  Just look at the 2009 version of the Cubs.  But when money is wisely spent, the team that spends the most usually wins.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games and 4-2 during this homestand.  They’ve gained in the Wildcard standings and are now 6.5 behind Colorado, but just 5.0 games back in the loss column with 19 games left to play.  It’s a longshot, but still possible.

Here’s how the Wildcard teams did yesterday;

• Colorado beat San Francisco 4-3
• San Francisco lost to Colorado 4-3
• Florida beat St. Louis 5-2
• Atlants beat the Mets 6-5

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The hot “rumor” over the  past few days is that the Cubs will be shopping Carlos Zambrano this off-season.  Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune first reported the rumor, but it was quickly shot down by the Cubs front office.  Zambrano has a full no-trade clause, so any potential deal would have to get his approval.

According to Sullivan’s story, Z has grown weary of the scrutiny he is under in Chicago and is willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the right team.  For Z, the right team would probably be a NL team so he can continue to hit, but it seems to me that the best fit would likely be in the AL. 

Zambrano is signed through 2012 with a vesting players option in 2013.  He is owed almost $54 million through 2012 and another $19.25 million in 2013. 

I’m not opposed to trading Zambrano as long as the Cubs get a good return for him.  He has tremendous talent, but he’s never emerged as the ace he was supposed to be.  Although he’s the highest paid player on the Cubs, he is probably just the third (or fourth) best pitcher on the team.

Zambrano is a victim of his own emotions, and perhaps his own immaturity.   His entire career, he has had a difficult time controlling himself on the mound.  He seemed to be better over the past two seasons (2007-08), but he has regressed once again.  This lack of control has kept him from realizing his full potential and earning the massive contract he signed in 2007.

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After seemingly coming to life after the All-Star Game, Milton Bradley is having an awful September.  The Cubs needed his offense when Aramis Ramirez was out early in the year, but instead his bat went into hiding.  When it looked like the Cubs were out of playoff contention, MB suddenly came to life.  Although his offense helped the Cubs get back into contention,he fell off a cliff when the team needed him most.

I know there has been some support coming out of the woodwork recently for Bradley, but those people are wrong.  Bradley is an unnecessary distraction, he is not a good teammate, he does not improve the team, and the Cubs would be better off without him in 2010.

If Marmol is the heir-apparent to the closers role in 2010, he’d better show a little more than he did yesterday.  Two walks, two hits, and two runs against an offensively challenged team like Cincinnati isn’t going to get the job done.

On a brighter note, Geovany Soto and Aramis Ramirez both had multi-hit games.  Soto had two doubles and drove in three of the Cubs five runs.

Ted Lilly (11-8) will go for the Cubs today in the series finale against Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (5-4).

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The Cubs have one of the top rotations in the NL.  Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are all under contract for 2010.  Rich Harden is the only Cubs starter who will be a free agent at the end of the 2009 season.  Should the Cubs resign him?

Jason Stark from ESPN.com looked at the upcoming class of free agent pitchers and concluded that the class is mighty weak.  Here’s what he has to say about Rich Harden:

“If we were making out this list based on stuff alone, Harden might rank No. 1. He has a better strikeout rate (10.88 per 9 IP) than Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, or any other starter in baseball with 130 innings or more this year. It’s just tough to know what to make of him. If he makes six more starts, it would be only the second time in his career (and first since 2004) that he’s gone to the post 30 times. He’s visited his friendly neighborhood disabled list five years in a row. And he’s never won more than 11 games in any season. “I’d be scared to death to commit years to this guy,” one AL execs said. “He’s been used kind of like Pedro [Martinez] was used in the past, where they’re always trying to build in an extra day’s rest. And he’s just a five-inning guy, in the National League. He might strike out 10, but he’ll only go five innings, so he still kills your ‘pen. He’ll get some money. I just don’t see anybody giving him more than a year.’”

There’s no doubt that Harden has good stuff.  as Stark points out, it might be the best stuff in the game.  But there’s more to pitching than just having “good stuff.”  Harden has a difficult time staying off the DL.  The fact that the most wins he’s ever had in his career is 11 tells you that he doesn’t make nearly enough starts in a season.

I’d like to see the Cubs offer Harden arbitration.  He’s a reasonable risk on a one-year contract, but I wouldn’t risk a multi-year deal on him.  If he wants to turn down arbitration and go after that multi-year deal, more power to him.  Since he’s a type A free agent, the Cubs will receive two draft picks from whichever team signs him.

If the Cubs wanted to sign a free agent pitcher to replace Harden, my vote would go to Randy Wolf.  Here’s what Stark says about Wolf:

“Wolf’s stock has risen faster this year than IBM’s. He’d be 18-6 if the Dodgers’ bullpen hadn’t blown eight saves for him. He’s ripped off 14 straight starts of six innings or more. And only four pitchers in the whole sport can beat his 19 starts of no more than two earned runs allowed. So one season after the Astros pulled a three-year, $28.5 million offer off his table before he could say yes, it appears that Wolf’s turn has finally arrived to get a multiyear free-agent deal — although, since he’s 33, it almost certainly wouldn’t be longer than three years. He’s “durable, dependable and left-handed,” one GM said. And he’s also “two 190-plus-inning seasons removed from any health issues.” Oh, and he’s also driven in more runs this year (11) than Dewayne Wise or Cameron Maybin. So look for this man to stay in the National League — just so he can keep swinging the old Louisville Slugger.”

If the Cubs are going to hand out a multi-year contract to a starting pitcher, they can do worse than Randy Wolf.

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With 22 games left in the season, let’s take a look at how the teams in the NL Wildcard race did yesterday:

• Colorado lost to San Diego 3-2
• San Francisco lost to the Dodgers 9-1
• Florida beat Washington 11-3
• Atlanta beat St. Louis 7-6

The Cubs remain 8.5 games behind the Rockies, but are now all alone in fifth place in the NL wildcard race.

I originally reported that Alfonso Soriano would have surgery on his ailing knee and would be out the rest of the year.  Then, Gordon Wittenmyer chimed in and said that Soriano would be back before the end of the month and would wait until the off-season to have surgery.  So I apologized for my mistake.  But it turns out I wasn’t mistaken at all.

ESPN Chicago is reporting that Soriano will in fact have surgery soon, ending his 2009 season.  At this point, Soriano is unable to put any weight on his knee, so even if he put off surgery, a return to the lineup is unlikely.

So Soriano will shift his focus to the 2010 season.  Let’s do the same thing and consider who will be hitting lead-off for the Cubs.  Although you can never say never, Lou Piniella is doing the next best thing when it comes to the possibility of Soriano leading off in 2010.

According to Dave Van Dyke of the Chicago Tribune, this was Piniella’s response when asked about the possibility of Soriano leading off in 2010:

“No, no, no.  That’s over with.  No, we’re not going to do that.” 

Piniella went on to say that the Cubs have two in-house candidates that will get the nod rather that Soriano.  Those two are Kosuke Fukudome and Ryan Theriot.  Piniella also allowed that the Cubs might aqcuire “a speed player” that could hit lead-off.

I’m not fully in 2010 mode, so I don’t have a strong opinion on this at the moment.  However, I’m already getting a little tired of the “we need to add speed to the top of the lineup” refrain.  True, the Cubs are dead last in the NL in stolen bases, so improving in that area will be a good idea.  But the “adding speed” refrain harkens back to last off-season when it was imperative that the Cubs get “more left-handed.”  As I’ve said before, the Cubs didn’t need more left-handed hitters, they needed more hitters who could hit, regardless of which side of the plate they do it from. 

Getting more speed at the top of the lineup is no more of a panacea than getting more left-handed.  The Cubs need a lead-off hitter who can get on base and then make things happen.  Simply looking for a speedster (like Joey Gathright)is the wrong thing to do.

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Next time you’re feeling bad about the Cubs starting pitching doing a good job only to lose the game, read the following blurb about Zach Grienke and the Kansas City Royals.  This was stolen excerpted from Joe Posnanski’s Sports Illustrated column:

“I’m going to give you an amazing statistic about Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke. He is, unquestionably, the best pitcher in the American League. He leads the league in ERA, complete games, WHIP and home runs per nine innings. He is second in strikeouts, and fifth in walks per game.

No, I haven’t given you the amazing statistic yet.

He leads the league in shutouts. He has made 20 starts where he allowed two runs or less, most in the American League. He has made 24 starts where he allowed three runs or less, most in the American League. He has only had two starts all year where he has given up five runs in a game.

No, haven’t given you the stat. Not yet.

Greinke’s first 10 starts, he had an 0.84 ERA. His last five starts, he has a 1.38 ERA. Greinke himself has a higher slugging percentage (.333) than the right-handed batters who have faced him this year (.318).

And no, that’s not the stat either. Here’s the stat that will blow your mind.

The Kansas City Royals have a losing record in games that Zack Greinke has started this season.”

Feel better now?

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All of the Wildcard contending teams were in action yesterday.  Here’s how they did:

• Colorado beat San Diego 4-1
• San Francisco lost to the Dodgers 10-3
• Florida lost to Washington 5-3
• Atlanta beat St. Louis 1-0

With their victory over Cincinnati, the Cubs remain 8.5 games behind Colorado and tied with Atlanta for fourth place in the NL Wildcard race.

My buddy Joe Posnanski (truthfully, I don’t know Joe) wrote a great piece about the first time he ever saw Blanco.  It’s a good read and a good indication of just how special the kid really is.  His minor league career has been marred by injuries, but now that he’s healthy, he’s starting to learn how to hit.  He’s not a great hitter and maybe never will be, but he has made a great deal of progress over the past couple of years.

Is Andres Blanco destined to become the Cubs next shortstop?  I personally would like to see Ryan Theriot play second base next year, but I’m not competely sold on the idea of having Blanco take over for Theriot at shortstop.  Because he is such a terrific fielder, maybe Blanco can become the Cubs super-sub.  Only time will tell…

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The Cubs and Giants were both idle yesterday, but the other Wildcard contenders were in action.  Here’s how they did:

• Colorado beat Cincinnati 5-1
• Florida beat the Mets 13-4
• Atlanta beat Houston 9-7

The Cubs are now 8.5 games behind Colorado and tied for fourth in the Wildcard race with Atlanta.

Milton Bradley left the game after the first inning complaining of tightness in his legs.  He was already scheduled to sit out Wednesday’s game, and is expected to be ready for this weekend’s series against Cincinnati.

Carlos Zambrano (7-6) will take the hill this afternoon against former Cub Kevin Hart (4-5). 

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I got some bad information.  I reported previously that Alfonso Soriano would have surgery and miss the rest of the season.  That’s only partly true.  According to Gordon Wittenmyer at the Sun-Times, Soriano is just resting his knee right now and is expected to be back in the Cubs line-up by the end of the month.  However, at this point the knee is too sore for Soriano to run on it.  Apparently, the surgery will take place in the off-season.  Sorry for the bad info.

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Here’s what happened in the Wildcard race yesterday:

• Colorado beat Cincinnati 3-1
• San Francisco lost to San Diego 4-3
• Florida beat the Mets 4-2
• Atlanta beat Houston 2-1

The Cubs remain 8.0 games behind the Rockies with 25 games remaining in the season.

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Do the Cubs need to just tweak the team for next year or make major changes to be competitive in 2010?  Derrek Lee believes that the Cubs have the makings of a very good team right now.  The only changes needed, according to Lee, are for guys to stay healthy, and for some of the players to turn around what have become some of the worst years in their careers.

Paul Sullivan at the Chicago Tribune backs up DLee’s opinion.  He suggests that the Cubs are in good shape because they are returning four-fifths of the NL’s fifth best rotation in 2010.  He also sees good things happening when Ramirez and Soriano are both healthy.

The one change Sullivan suggests is signing a free agent second baseman, like Chone Figgins.  He believes that Figgins speed and bat at the top of the order may just be what the doctor ordered.  I haven’t given this enough thought to agree or disagree, but I would hate to go into next year with the same basic team and expect a different result.  I’ll give this more thought and have more to say after the season.  (It’s a teaser, like “Who shot J.R.).