On the surface, it appears that both the Yankees and Mets got some of the top players in the game for the money they spent.  For the Yankees, names like Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and C.C. Sabathia immediately spring to mind.  For the Mets, guys like David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Francisco Rodriguez top the list.  But what about the Cubs?  Are any of their players among the best at their position in baseball?

My premise is simple.  If you have the third highest payroll in all of baseball, then you should have one of the top players at just about every position.  Is that happening with the Cubs?  I’m examining that question with this series of articles.  To read previous posts in this series, click on these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field

Today, I’d like to look at closers.  The closers we will be examining are:

• Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
• Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
• Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
• Fernando Rodney (Tigers)
• Brad Lidge (Phillies)
• Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)

Here’s how the closers rank based on 2009 salary:

1. Mariano Rivera ($15 million)
2. Brad Lidge ($11.5 million)
3. Francisco Rodriguez ($8.5 million)
4. Jonathan Papelbon ($6.5 million)
5. Kevin Gregg ($4.2 million)
6. Fernando Rodney ($2.7 million)

I like to start my analysis of 2009 by looking at what the players accomplished in 2008.  It gives me an idea of what type of momentum they had going into 2009 and helps me understand what the GM was thinking when they signed/traded for the player prior to 2009, or decided to keep the player in their current position in 2009.

With that in mind, here’s how the closers ranked based on 2008 WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 3.1)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 3.0)
3. Brad Lidge (WAR 2.2)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 1.8)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR 0.7)
6. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.4)

Next, let’s compare the pitchers based on 2008 ERA+:

1. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 317)
2. Brad Lidge (ERA + 225)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 198)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 198)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 127)
6. Fernando Rodney (ERA + 91)

Finally, let’s look at 2008 WHIP:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.665)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (0.952)
3. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.226)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.282)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.288)
6. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.587)

In 1988, Mariano Rivera was obviously the cream of the crop.  Jonathan Papelbon also had an outstanding year.  Based on the three stats we looked at above, Brad Lidge had a good year.  But when you factor in his 41 saves in 41 save opportunities, you can see that it was a remarkable year for Lidge.

The other three closers were at least a step below Rivera, Papelbon and Lidge.  Francisco Rodriguez had an impressive 62 saves in 69 chances, but the other two closers were nothiong special.  Even so, Jim Hendry must have seen something in Kevin Gregg following the 2008 season.  He allowed the Cubs former closer Kerry Wood to leave via free agency and he signed Gregg to a $4.2 million contract.

Moving on to 2009, here’s how the closers did based on WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 2.0)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 1.9)
3. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.3)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 0.3)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR -0.3)
6. Brad Lidge (WAR -0.7)

Brad Lidge had a train wreck of a year.  He was a mess.  But at least based on WAR, Kevin Gregg was almost as bad.  Gregg’s WAR indicates that the Cubs would have been better served bringing a replacent level closer up from AAA.

Here’s how the pitchers ranked based on ERA+:

1. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 253)
2. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 243)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 111)
4. Fernando Rodney (ERA+ 104)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 95)
6. Brad Lidge (ERA+ 59)

For the first time in our study, Papelbon knocks Rivera off the top step.  Gregg’s ERA+ indicates that he is a below average closer, but it’s nowhere near as bad as Lidge’s ERA+.  Lidge was simply awful in 2009.

Finally, let’s compare the closers based on their 2009 WHIP.  Here’s how they rank:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.905)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WHIP 1.147)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.309)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.311)
5. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.467)
6. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.807)

Rivera had a WHIP below 1.00 again.  He ended the year with 44 saves and only two blown saves.  Fernando Rodney’s 2009 stats did not look particularly strong, but he finished the season with 37 saves in 38 opportunities.  Of the group, Gregg had the fewest saves with 23 in 30 chances.

Ranking the closers based on averall stats and performances, I came up with this list:

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
5. Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
6. Fernando Rodney (Tigers)

After Lidge’s horrible 2009, it was hard to rank him 4th.  However, based on his career numbers, he definitely deserved to be ahead of Gregg and Rodney. 

I think there is an argument to be made that Rodney should be ranked ahead of Gregg.  Again, I deferred to their career numbers.  However, I think it is fair to say that moving forward, Rodney is the more valuable closer.  His stock is rising while Gregg’s is falling.

It’s plain to see that Kevin Gregg is not one of the elite closers in baseball.  He ranks at or near the bottom of the list of the six closers we examined.  When you factor in other closers not part of our survey such as Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, and others, it’s clear that Gregg is not a top closer.

Bottom Line: Allowing Kerry Wood to leave via free agency was probably the proper move for the Cubs following the 2008 season.  However, signing Kevin Gregg was not the proper move.  He was not an elite closer prior to 2009 and the Cubs had no reason to believe he would be an elite closer in 2009.  Again, it was more wishful thinking on Jim Hendry’s part. 

Gregg lost his closing role to Carlos Marmol during the 2009 season and the Cubs appear ready to move forward with Marmol as the closer in 2010.  Is Marmol an elite closer?  I don’t think so.  He led all NL relievers in BB/9 in 2009 and he was third among all NL pitchers for hit batsmen.  When Marmol is right, he is difficult to hit.  But when he is wrong, which happens far too often, he simpy can’t throw strikes.  That’s not a quality you want in a closer.

To give you an idea, in 2009, Marmol had a WAR of 0.6, an ERA+ of 132, and his WHIP was 1.459.  He allowed 7.9 walks per 9 innings and he hit 12 batters in just 74.0 innings pitched.  These stats are a recipe for disaster as a closer.

The Cubs are once again entering a season in 2010 hoping and praying that their sub-par closer can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.  It could happen, but the odds are against it.  At some point, the Cubs need to stop applying band-aids to their needs and actually add a top player.  The closer position would be a good place to start.

A Look At The Offseason (Part 1 – Infield)

A Look At The Offseason (Part 2 – Outfield)

Today, I’d like to focus on the Cubs’ starting and relief pitching.

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Four of the five positions in the Cubs starting rotation are pretty well set.  Barring an unforessen trade, the Cubs starters will include Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells.  Lefties Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Marshall, along with right-hander Jeff Samardjzia will compete for the fifth starter position.  So the Cubs are set with starting pitching, right?  Maybe.

I don’t expect the Cubs to add another starter, but there are a couple of scenarios that make some sense.  First, I’ve previously set out a scenario where a Milton Bradley (and others) trade to Toronto could return Roy Halladay.  If that happened, then you can count Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia among the faces in the bullpen.  It’s unlikely, but it would work.

If the Cubs are looking for a free agent starting pitcher (which I don’t think they are), there are two different targets I would suggest.  First is current Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf.  In 2009, Wolf was 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA.  He earned $5 million last year, plus $500,000 for pitching more than 200 innings.  He’ll be 34 years old in 2010.

The other free agent target I’d like the Cubs to consider is former Brewers starter, Ben Sheets.  Sheets missed the past year while recovering from surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.  He thought he’d be ready to pitch again by mid-season this past year, but his recovery took longer than anticipated.  From all reports, Sheets will be ready by Spring Training.

Sheets is a buy low, high potential target.  When he’s right, Sheets is very good.  Of course, his health and durability are a question, so he shouldn’t cost too much on a one year deal.

The Cubs bullpen will include two of Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia (the two not in the starting rotation). It will also include Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol.  If the Cubs can re-sign John Grabow (which I expect), he’ll also be part of the bullpen.  Justin Berg, Dave Patton, Jeff Stevens and Mitch Atkins are also bullpen candidates.

The big question for me concerning the bullpen is whether or not the Cubs will be willing to start the year with Marmol as the closer.  All indications from the Cubs are that Marmol will be the closer.  If I were in charge, I’d be looking for someone else.

In 2009, Marmol lead all NL relievers in hit batters (12) and in bb/9 innings (7.90/9).  That’s not what you want from the guy who’s in charge of shutting down the opposing team in the 9th inning of a close game.  In 19 save opportunities, Marmol had 15 saves for a 21.0% blown save rate.  For comparisons sake, the Dodger’s Jonathon Broxton blew 14.3% of his save opportunities, Ryan Franklin of St. Louis blew 11.6% of his save opportunities, and the Rockies’ Huston Street blew 10.8% of his save opportunities.  Even Francisco Rodriguez of the Mets, who had a down year, only blew 16.7% of his save opportunities.  (In all fairness, Brad Lidge blew 21.6% of his saves and the Phillies are in the World Series.)

Marmol has been a great story for the Cubs up until now.  He joined the club as a catcher, was converted to a pitcher and at times has been dominant.  But he’s too wild and too unpredictable.  The Cubs need a closer they can count on.

Rob G. of The Cub Reporter has thrown out the idea of the Cubs signing free agent Kelvim Escobar.  Although he’s missed the past two years with injuries, Escobar is expected to be healthy going into next year.  Because of his past injury issues, he shouldn’t cost much and he could be brought in with the idea of either setting up Marmol or taking on the closer role. 

The Cubs could also decide to go after Billy Wagner.  After returning from injury last year, Wagner, who will be 39 years old next season,  looked like his old self.  He probably won’t come cheap, but he has the potential to be a dominant closer.  In 2009, between the Mets and Red Sox, Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings, but he posted a 1-1 record with a 1.72 ERA.  It’s a small sample size, but impressive nonetheless considering the circumstances.

The Red Sox have an $8 million option on Wagner for 2010, but they agreed not to exercise it in order to get him to waive his no-trade clause when he was traded from the Mets to Boston.  That must mean that Wagner thinks he can get more than $8 million per year and/or more years as a free agent. 

The latest news on Wagner is that he told a reporter that he is considering retiement and doesn’t plan to talk to teams when he hits free agency.  The next day, his agent said that Wagner’s statement was “premature.”  If he’s available, the Cubs should inquire, but my personal feeling is that his price tag is going to be too high.

There are a couple of other free agent candidates that are longshots, but possibilities.  If John Smoltz would be willing to return to the bullpen in 2010, then the Cubs should look at him to be their closer.  At the moment, it looks like Smoltz wants to start and St. Louis is willing to give him a chance, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.

The other option is of my own creation.  I mentioned earlier that free agent Ben Sheets is a pitcher the Cubs should consider.  Although he’s never closed before, it might be the perfect role for him coming off of a missed year due to injury.  It would allow him to pitch fewer innings and build his strength back up if his goal is to eventually be a starter again.  He has shown in the past that he has the mentality to be a closer.  Although I like the idea, I’m not so sure either Sheets or the Cubs would like it as much.

Other free agents to consider are Brandan Donnelly, Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito.  I’m not suggesting any of them would be a good fit for the Cubs, but they do have experience closing and all are available. 

There are a couple of intriguing trade candidates that may be available.  The Cincinnati Reds owe Francisco Cordero $12 million per year in 2010 and 2011.  The team also holds a $12 million option for 2012 with a $1 million buy-out.  In fact, he is the highest paid player on a team with many needs and very little payroll flexibility.

In 2009, Cordero was 2-6 with a 2.16 ERA.  He had 39 saves in 43 save opportunities (9.3% blown saves).  He’s expensive, but could probably be had for a couple of good prospects.  On the other hand, I doubt if either team would be overly excited about making a deal within the division.  It happens, but it’s not preferred.

There is also a chance that Colorado may make Huston Street available.  Personally, I think this is a longshot, but the fact is that Street made $4.5 million in 2009 and is due for a hefty increase via arbitration.  The Rockies have a couple of  other cheaper (albeit, not as good) options at closer, including Manny Corpas who is returning from injury.  It seems to me that the only way the Rockies would trade Street is if they are really in a money crunch.  I know their budget is tight, but I’m not sure it is tight enough to trade such a valuable player.

In a nutshell, I don’t think the Cubs should count on Marmol to be their closer, but I have to admit that the options to replace him are rather limited.  The bottom line for me is that the Cubs have a top-of-the-line starting rotation and they need to have a dependable arm closing out games for them.  I don’t know for sure who that steady arm will be, but I do know that Carlos Marmol is anything but steady.

In my next report, I’ll wrap up this series and put together a proposed 25 man roster for the 2010 Cubs.

“Here’s the deal. Cubs GM Jim Hendry has been working the phones, and was doing so today, trying to move Bradley. Cubs people tell me Jim has been talking with several teams, so there appears to be no shortage of interest, something also reported by national baseball writer Ken Rosenthal, who cites baseball people as saying there is widespread interest in Bradley.

“Bradley can’t come back to the Cubs for several reasons:

–How does he walk into the clubhouse and face teammates who lined up last month in St. Louis to tell the writers they were glad Bradley had been suspended and that he ought to look in the mirror?

–What happens when Bradley says something provocative to the media in spring training? The Cubs do not want any more “Here we go again” moments.

–What would happen if Bradley goes 0–for-5 with 3 strikeouts in the home opener at Wrigley and the fans start booing again? Heck, what happens the first time he heads out to right field, the scene of all that “hatred and adversity,” to use Bradley’s term?

–The Cubs will have new owners any day now, and you have to believe the Ricketts family wants no potential public-relations disasters on its hands, courtesy of Milton Bradley.

“As I’ve written, if Hendry can create a market or even the perception of a market for Bradley, he might be able to get decent return and not have to eat all of the $21 million coming to Bradley over the next two years. Of course, Hendry is responsible for giving Bradley the three-year, $30 million contract in the first place.”

As usual, Mr. Miles is spot on.  Bringing Milton Bradey back in 2010 would be a bad idea on so many levels that it is hard to believe that anybody in the Cubs organization is seriously considering it.  My guess is that they’re not.

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Now that the Cubs have hired Rudy Jaramillo to be their hitting coach, Mark Potash of the Sun-Times thinks they should turn their attention to hiring Dave Duncan as their pitching coach.  Duncan is currently with the Cardinals (in case you didn’t know) and his contract ends at the end of this season.

According to Potash, Jaramillo may be the best hitting coach in the game today, but Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball history.  High praise indeed.  But he doesn’t stop there:

“With all due respect to Rudy Jarmillo, Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball history. He should be the first pitching coach in the Hall of Fame. He has a record of developing young pitchers, resurrecting old pitchers, squeezing one golden season out of the most mediocre of arms and turning your trash into his treasure that is unmatched anywhere in baseball. Nobody’s even close.”

But here’s the rub: Duncan usually goes where Tony LaRussa goes.  LaRussa’s contract is up at the end of this season as well.  The Cardinals want him back and he has indicated that he is not interested in managing anywhere else.  Of course, there have been persistent rumors that he doesn’t want to manage in St. Louis next year either.  One rumor has the St. Louis skipper sitting out 2010 in anticipation of several potential managerial openings in 2011.  If he does sit out in 2010, Duncan will be on his own.

There’s also the possibility that Duncan will be on his own even if LaRussa re-ups in St. Louis.  Duncan is very upset with the Cardinals front office for the way they handled the trade of his son, Chris Duncan, in a deal that sent Julio Lugo from Boston to St. Louis.  It has been speculated that Duncan will not consider a return to the Cardinals even if LaRussa returns as the manager.

I’m all for hiring Dave Duncan.  If he can have the same type of success with the Cubs that he has had everywhere else he has been, then by all means, sign him up.  Give current Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild his parting gifts and thank him for playing.  But at this point, I think this idea needs to be filed under “Long Shot.”

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I haven’t really thought this through, but should the Cubs stand pat with Carlos Marmol as their closer?  Next week I plan on writing a series on what the Cubs should do this off season and I’ll have to address this issue then, but for now, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com throws out a couple of interesting stats about the Cubs closer.

• Marmol was third in the league for hit batters with 12.  However, among relievers he was clearly first.
• Marmol had the worst walk numbers  in the National League among closers.  He walked 65 in just 74.0 innings.  The next highest total was 38.0 by the Mets Francisco Rodriguez and the Nationals Mike MacDougal.  Rodriguez pitched a total of 68 innings (while compiling 35 saves) and MacDougal pitched a total of 50.0 innings.  For those of you who are mathematically challenged (including me), that’s 7.90  BB/9 for Marmol, 5.02 BB/9 for Rodriguez, and 6.84 BB/9 for MacDougal.

So what’s my point?  I don’t have one yet.  I was just thinking out loud.  Next week I’ll revisit these numbers and come up with a verdict on whether the Cubs should keep Marmol in the closers role or look elsewhere for 9th inning relief.