I’m please that the Cubs are one of the top spending teams in the major leagues.  Considering the size of their market and there considerable revenue advantages, they should have one of the top payrolls.  However, I don’t believe their roster is nearly as good as it can be based on the amount they spend.I’ve been analyzing each position and comparing the player the Cubs have at that position to the players the five other biggest payroll teams have at that position.  To read the previous posts, visit these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field

Today, I’d like to turn my attention to center field.  The center fielders that we’ll be looking at are:

• Brett Gardner (Yankees)
• Carlos Beltran (Mets)
• Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
• Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
• Shane Victorino (Phillies)
• Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox)

Based on their 2009 salary, this is how they rank:

• Carlos Beltran ($18.5 million)
• Kosuke Fukudome ($11.5 million)
• Curtis Granderson ($3.5 million)
• Shane Victorino ($3.125 million)
• Jacoby Ellsbury ($449,500)
• Brett Gardner ($414,000)

As we look at these players, there are a couple of things to keep in mind.  First, although Gardner was the opening day center fielder for the Yankees in 2009, Melky Cabrera actually played the bulk of the season in center.  Even so, at the start of the season, Gardner was tops on the depth chart in center for the Yanks.  That’s why we’ll be looking at him rather than Cabrera.

Also, even though Fukudome is primarily a right fielder and was signed by the Cubs to play right field, he started the season in center and played the majority of his games there.  So we’ll be comparing him to the other team’s center fielders.

Let’s start by taking a look at how these players did in 2008.  Looking back will give us an idea of how they did the year prior to the year we are interested in (2009) and give us some idea of why their team felt they should be their team’s starting center fielder in 2009.  First, let’s look at how the players rank based on their 2008 WAR:

1. Carlos Beltran (WAR 6.7)
2. Shane Victorino (WAR 4.1)
3. Curtis Granderson (WAR 3.7)
4. Jacoby Ellsbury (WAR 3.3)
5. Kosuke Fukudome (WAR 1.8)
6. Brett Gardner (WAR 1.1)

Beltran had a big year for the Mets in 2008.  Victorino also had a good year, helping to lead the Phillies to a World Series Championship. 

Fukudome did not have a good year.  As you’ll recall, 2008 was the Fukudome’s first year in the U.S. polaying Major League Baseball.  He started out strong, but then faded badly as the season progressed.

Next, let’s see how the center fielders ranmk based on 2008 OPS+:

1. Carlos Beltran (OPS+ 129)
2. Curtis Granderson (OPS+ 123)
3. Shane Victorino (OPS+ 106)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (OPS+ 89)
5.  Jacoby Ellsbury (OPS+ 87)
6. Brett Gardner (OPS+ 53)

Keep in mind that the “average” MLB player has a score of 100.  Anything less than that is considered below average.  In 2008, based on OPS+ (and just about any other measure), Fukudome was below average.

In 2009, this is how the center fieldres ranked based on WAR:

1. Curtis Granderson (WAR 3.4)
2. Shane Victorino (WAR 3.4)
3. Carlos Beltran (WAR 2.9)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (WAR 2.3)
5. Brett Gardner (WAR 2.1)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (WAR 1.9)

In 2009, Beltran missed a lot of time due to injuries.  WAR takes into account how often you are in the lineup.  Even so, he was still more valuable than Fukudome.  In fact, Fukudome had 499 at-bats in 2009 compared to 308 ABs for Beltran, yet Beltran was still the more valuable player.

Based on 2009 OPS+, the center fielders ranked like this:

1. Carlos Beltran (OPS+ 143)
2. Shane Victorino (OPS+ 109)
3. Kosuke Fukudome (OPS+ 104)
4. Curtis Granderson (OPS+ 100)
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (OPS+ 97)
6. Brett Gardner (OPS+ 93)

I was surprised that Fukudome scored as high as he did.  Altough he was just slightly above average, I didn’t think he’d even be that high.  I’m also surprised that Ellsbury didn’t do better.  I expected him to score higher.  I may have to re-evaluate my belief that the Cubs should try to trade for him.

When all is said and done, this is how I would rank the center fielders:

1. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
2. Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
3. Shane Victorino (Phillies)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox)
6. Brett Gardner (Yankees)

Beltran is obviously the class of the field.  When he’s healthy, he’s arguably the best center fielder in the game (at least the best hitting).

Granderson and Victorino are a close call.  In the end, I gave the nod to Granderson because of his higher career OPS+ (113 vs. 99), but it could have gone either way.

I ranked Fukudome ahead of Ellsbury based on what they’ve done over the past two years, but truthfully, I would prefer to have Ellsbury in center field going forward.

Brett Gardner brought up the rear.  The reason this is surprising is that he is the one weak link in the Yankee’s 2009 opening day starting lineup.  This explains why the Yanks replaced him with Melky Cabrera last year.

When comparing Fukudome against other center fielders, he simply does not match up.  Beltran, Granderson, and Victorino are obviously better players than Fukudome.  Then if you consider other center fielders such as Denard Span (one of my favorites), Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp, Michael Bourne, Franklin Gutierrez, and others, it become clear that Fukudome is not one of the top center fielders in baseball.

Even if you compare Fukudome to right fielders (his normal position), he does not compare favorably.  The Cubs took a chance by signing Fukudome.  I understand their desire to increase their profile internationally, but by just about all accounts, Fukudome has been a bust.

Bottom Line:  What we’re trying to determine in this post is whether or not the Cubs have one of the top center fielders in baseball.  I think we showed pretty clearly that they do not.  Fukudome was a highly touted plasyer from Japan and the Cubs took a chance by signing him.  Unfortunately, the risk didn’t pay off.

I give the Cubs credit for trying something different to improve the ball club.  Unfortunately, Kosuke Fukudome was probably not the right guy to take a chance on.  He’s been a disappointment during his time with the Cubs and he’s not the caliber of player that the third highest payroll team in baseball (based on 2009 payroll) should have in the starting line up.

Joe Posnanski recently wrote an article for Sports Illustrated detailing his HOF ballot.  Although he once again makes the case that Andre Dawson does not belong in the Hall of Fame, the article is still worth reading.  He has a unique way of looking at baseball.  As I’ve said in the past, he’s a terrific writer, but I’m still trying to come to grips with his perspectives.

A couple of other articles I found interesting were Jayson Stark’s explanation of his Hall of Fame ballot and Tim Kurkjian’s defense of his vote for Andre Dawson. 

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The Cardinals signed Matt Holliday to a 7-year/$119 million contract yesterday.  The contract may also contain a no trade clause, but I haven’t seen that reported anywhere.  I just know that was a sticking point in previous contract negotiations.

Obviously, the Cards are better with Holliday than without him, but I just don’t see him having that kind of value.  In many ways, The Cards signing of Holliday mirrors the Cubs signing of Alfonso Soriano.  They apparently bid against themselves and paid so much for Holliday that in a few years, the contract is going to be untradeable and the Cards are going to be stuck with him.

The real question now is, what does Holliday’s signing mean for the Cardinals long-term plans for Albert Pujols.  Most reports this off season have suggested that the Cards needed to sign Holliday to show Pujols that they are serious about staying competitive.  But a few writers have suggested that the Cardinals decided to spend the money on Holliday now because they already know that they aren’t going to be able to keep Pujols long-term.  I don’t know which is true, but it makes for some interesting speculation.

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The Boston Red Sox announced that they will be moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left field to make room for Mike Cameron.  According to the report from ESPN Boston, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said, “It’s more to do with Cameron’s experience, and Ellsbury’s ability to play a dynamic left field. This is not necessarily a permanent arrangement, or a long-term arrangement. But we think Cameron is still an elite center fielder … and that’s the best way to go for now.”

Ellsbury’s “ability to play a dynamic left field?”  What does that mean?  And is calling Mike Cameron an “elite center fielder” a little over the top.  He’s good, but I don’t think he’s ever been viewed as “elite”.  Plus, if he ever was elite, I don’t think he’s still elite at age 37.

For his part, Ellsbury was not particularly happy about the move.  Boston manager Terry Francona (who I like to call “Tito”) said, ”He (Ellsbury) was probably a little disappointed, which is what I expected, but with Cameron’s long strides and Jacoby’s quickness, we have a chance to have a real dynamic outfield here.”

There’s that “dynamic” word again.  At least we know that Theo and Tito are reading the same talking points.  It sounds like the entire press conference was put toogether by a PR firm rather than a baseball organization.

Anyway, the point of all of this is that chosing Cameron over Ellsbury for center field may mean that Boston is beginning the process of separating themselves from Ellsbury.  That’s just conjecture on my part, but I think it’s fair to say that by most standards, Ellsbury doesn’t hit enough to be an “elite” corner outfielder.  Now that he’s in left field, Boston may start looking for a player with a little more power.  If they do and Ellsbury becomes expendable, I hope the Cubs are waiting in the wings to scoop him up.

Trade Candidates

Melky Cabrera — After trading for Curtis Granderson, the Yankees suddenly have a surplus of good, young outfielders.  They may be interested in trading either Cabrera or Brett Gardner.  If the Cubs could snag Cabrera, they would be getting a guy that hit .274/.336/.416 for the Yankees in 2009 with 13 homeruns and 68 RBI.   The switch hitting Cabrera is just 25-years old and earned $1.4 million in 2009.  As a fielder, UZR/150 says he’s just slightly above average, posting a rating of 2.3.  UPDATE: Cabrera has been traded to the Braves, so he’s now off the board.

Shin-Soo Choo — Choo is a 27-year old outfielder from Korea.  Last year with the Indians, Choo hit .300/.394/.489 with 20 homeruns and 86 RBI.  He also had 21 stolen bases and was caught just twice.  It was the best year of his major league career.  He is currently listed as the Indians starting right fielder, but Matt LaPorte is breathing down his neck and Cleveland may be interested in trading him.  Choo has only played a handful of games in center field, but he’s been an above-average left fielder in his career and an average right fielder, so I’m assuming he can handle center field.  Choo earned $420,300 in 2009 and is likely due for a raise.

Rajai Davis — The Oakland A’s are stock full of outfielders, potentially making Rajai Davis available.  Davis hit .305/.360/.423 with  3 homeruns and 48 RBI in 390 ABs.  he also had 41 stolen bases and was caught stealing 12 times.  UZR/150 likes Davis, giving him a 17.8 rating in center field in 2009.  The 29-year old davis (he’s not a kid) earned $410,000 in 2009 and will likely be in line for an increase in 2010.  Jim Hendry and Billy Beane have worked well together on deals in the past.  Might the get together this off season on Davis? 

Jacoby Ellsbury — Ellsbury could be the odd man out in Boston now that the Red Sox have signed center fielder Mike Cameron.  It’s unclear where Ellsbury will end up playing or even if he’ll be starting.  In 2009, Ellsbury hit .301/.355/.415 with 8 homeruns and 60 RBI.  He also stole an impressive 70 bases while getting caught just 12 times.  He’d look good at the top of the Cubs batting order.  Ellsbury gets gigged for his 2009 UZR/150 rating of  -18.3, but I’m not buying it.  Chris Moore at BaseballAnalysts.com took a look at Ellsbury’s defense and concluded that UZR/150 probably missed the boat.  Ellsbury is just 26-years old and could fill center field for the Cubs for years to come.  And at just $449,500 per year (his 2009 salary), he’s a bargain.

Dexter Fowler — Fowler is a good looking young ballplayer (I sound like Harry Caray) who hit .266/.363/.406 with 4 homeruns and 34 RBI in 2009 for Colorado.  He’s just 23-years old and is coming off his rookie season with a lot of promise.  UZR/150 didn’t like his fielding much, giving him just a -20.3 rating.  Fowler is currently blocked in center field in Colorado by Carlos Gonzalez, another promising youngster.  There’s no guarantee that Fowler is going to follow up his rookie campaign by continuing to develop, but I think it would be a fairly safe risk for the Cubs, especially considering that he is so inexpensive (he earned just $401,000 2009).

Brett Gardner — Who would you take from the Yankees, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner?  In 2009, Gardner hit .270/.345/.379 with 3 homeruns, 23 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 248 ABs.  He’s a terrific center fielder with a career UZR/150 rating of 27.6.  In a crowded Yankees line-up, it’s tough to say who will be the odd-man out, but it appears to be either Cabrera or Gardner.  Could Gardner be the Cubs center fielder of 2010 and beyond?

Gary Matthews, Jr — The Angels badly want to trade Matthews.  Here’s what the Cubs should consider:  He’s not much of a hitter anymore, he’s not a very good fielder anymore, and he’s very expensive.  Need I say more?

Nyjer Morgan — Washington acquired Morgan last year from Pittsburgh.  He put together a good year between the two teams, posting a hitting line of .307/.369/.388 with 3 homeruns and 39 RBI.  He also stole 42 bases in 2009.  Unfortunately for Morgan, he was stealing third base on August 28 against the Cubs when he broke his hand and missed the remainder of the season.  In 2009, Morgan posted an impressive 40.5 UZR/150 rating.  Not only could he handle center field at Wrigley, but he could also be the lead-off hitter that the Cubs sorely need.  But why would Washington trade him?  Good question.  Unfortunately, at this moment, I don’t have a good answer.  At 29-years old, Morgan is a bit of a late bloomer.  He made just $411,500 in 2009 and is going to be affordable for some time to come.

Cody Ross — Ross is not a kid like a lot of the people on this list.  He’s 29-years old (that’s not that old) and is a bit more of a known quantity than some of the other trade candidates.  What we know is that he hit .270/.321/.484 with 24 homeruns and 90 RBI in 2009 for Florida.  We also know that 2009 was the best year of Ross’ career.  But to be fair, Ross has been coming on strong since 2007.  He primarily plays center field, although he also spent time in right field and is currently listed as the Marlins starting right fielder.  In center field, Ross had a UZR/150 rating of -9.5 in 2009.  Ross earned $2.225 million in 2009 and accepted arbitration for 2010.

Aaron Rowand — San Francisco would like to move Rowand’s contract.  In 2009, the 32-year old center fielder hit .261/.319/.419 with 15 homeruns and 64 RBI.  He had a 1.5 UZR/150 rating and he earned $8 million on a contract that runs through 2012.  He is still owed $36 million.  The Cubs don’t need to bring in an aging outfielder who is on the down-side of his career and making a lot of money.  Although I like Aaron Rowand, I don’t think he is the answer in center field.

Grady Sizemore — To be honest, I don’t think the Indians have any interest in trading Sizemore, but I saw him on another list, so I thought I’d include him.  In 2009, Sizemore hit .248/.338/.445 with 18 homeruns and 64 RBI in what by Sizemore standards was a down year.  Sizemore is signed through 2011 and is owed $13.1 million.  His contract also includes an $8.5 million option in 2012 with a $500,000 buyout.  Sizemore had a -4.0 UZR/150 rating in 2009, but he has a career UZR/150 of 5.4.  I don’t think it matters.  He’s not going anywhere.

Denard Span — Would Minnesota be willing to trade Denard Span?  If so, the Cubs need to get to the front of the line.  In 2009,  the 25-year old Span hit .311/.392/.432 with 8 homeruns and 68 RBI.  And he did it for a cheap $435,000.  UZR/150 gave him a fielding rating of -7.4, but from everything I’ve read, he does a fine job in center field.  He has emerged as one of the top lead-off hitters in baseball and would be a good long-term investment for the Cubs.

Willy Taveras — I’m pretty sure that the Cubs could convince the Reds to trade Taveras for a couple of prospects.  Cincinnati badly needs to cut payroll and the weak hitting Taveras is owed $4 million in 2010.  Trading for Taveras would not be a good move.

Vernon Wells — Okay, I don’t think the Cubs should trade for him and his monster contract either, but I thought he should be listed anyway because he’s available.  I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Wells makes a lot of money.

Chris Young — Young is a 26-year old center fielder for Arizona.  He hit .212/.311/.400 in 2009 with 15 homeruns and 42 RBI.  His UZR/150 rating for 2009 was -9.8.  I’m not as high on Young as some people are.  I do think he has potential, but I’m not convinced he’s ever going to realize that potential.  He’s signed through 2013 and is owed $26.25 million over the next four years.  The contract also includes a club option for 2014 for $11 million with a $1.5 million buyout.  Although I included him in this list, my hope is that the Cubs don’t pursue him.

Eric Young, Jr. – The 24-year old Young is an interesting player for the Cubs.  He plays both second base and center field (just like his dad).  As it turns out, the Cubs need to fill both positions.  At the moment, Young is a reserve for Colorado, but he appears to be ready for prime time.  He only played in 30 games in 2009, and is eligible for Rookie of the Year in 2010.   Trading for Young would be a bit of a risk.  Does he have what it takes to be an all-star caliber big leaguer?