The Cubs loss in Cincinnati was eerily similar to the loss I watched them suffer at the hands of the Braves earlier this year.  Ryan Dempster started both games for the Cubs.  He pitched very well in both games.  Leading 3-2 in the 8th in Atlanta, Dempster gave up a double to rookie phenom Jason Heyward.  Lou Pinella pulled him out of the game and replaced him with John Grabow.  The first hitter Grabow faced was Chipper Jones.  Jones promptly hit a home run and the Braves won the game 4-3.

Dempster pitched even better today.  He had only given up three hits as the game moved into the 7th inning and the Cubs were winning 3-2.  Two hitters reached base with first baseman Joey Votto due up and two outs.  Piniella visited the mound, just as he did in Atlanta, but this time he left Dempster in the game.  I mentioned at the time that it was obvious that Piniella did not trust the bullpen.  On Dempster’s very first pitch to Votto, the young first baseman hit a mammoth blast into the right center field seats to give the Reds a 5-3 lead.  They went on to win the game by the same score.

The Cubs could only muster four hits off of Reds starter Mike Leake.  One of those hits was a two-run home run by Tyler Colvin, who started the game in left field to give Alfonso Soriano a day off.  Koyie Hill also started, giving Geovany Soto a rest. 

I know that players need a day off once in a while, but coming into Sunday’s game, the Cubs had lost four of the five games they had played during the road trip.  Wouldn’t it have made sense for the Cubs to have at least one of Soriano or Soto – two of their hottest hitters – in the lineup for their final game of the road trip?  Who knows if it would have made a difference, but I have trouble accepting removing two of the team’s best hitters from the lineup at the same time while the Cubs are having trouble scoring runs.

Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez continue to struggle at the plate.  Lee was 0-4 while Ramirez got a hit in his final at-bat of the game.  Lee is hitting .210 on the year while Ramirez is still below the Mendoza line at .167.

Starlin Castro, AKA the greatest baseball player in the history of the game, was 1-3 with a single.  It was the first game in Castro’s big league career that he has not had at least one extra base hit.  He will make his Wrigley Field debut tomorrow against the Florida Marlins.  God help the Marlins.

While the starting rotation has been surprisingly good (with the exception of Carlos Zambrano), the bullpen has stunk up the joint.  Esmailin Caridad was given the 8th inning set-up role based on a very good Spring Training, but he had a melt down in his very first outing.  After a total of just 2.2 innings pitched, Caridad was sent to the DL with a forearm injury.

John Grabow, Justin Berg, and Jeff Gray all have ERAs in excess of 6.00.  Jeff Samardjzia is leading that parade with a 16.20 ERA in 3.0 innings pitched.  Grabow and Samardjzia in particular were supposed to be a veteran counterbalance to rookies like Caridad, Berg, Gray, and James Russell.  Instead, they have helped lead the charge in the opposite direction.

James Russell has been a breath of fresh air in an otherwise disappointing bullpen.  In 4.1 innings of relief he has yet to give up an earned run.  Sean Marshall, who many would argue should be in the starting rotation, has looked go so far this year as well.  Going into Sunday’s game against the Astros, Marshall had pitched 7.0 innings and posting a 1.29 ERA.

Then there’s Carlos Marmol.  Man, he makes me nervous.  Even so, he has been good so far in this young season.  Going into Sunday’s game, Marmol was a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities.  He also had not allowed an earned run.  Unfortunately, he suffered his first blown save of the year on Sunday against the Astros.  He did not look good pitching against Houston’s rather anemic offense.  I don’t want to place too much importance on the blown save, but I’m afraid it is a precursor of things to come.  Unfortunately, I just don’t trust Marmol to handle the 9th inning.

At the moment, Sean Marshall is the only bullpen arm I really trust (in spite of getting knocked around a bit Sunday).  Russell is young and unproven, although he’s looked good so far.  Marmol is a train wreck waiting to happen.  The rest of the bullpen hasn’t given me any reason to have faith.

When Ted Lilly returns, either Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva will move to the bullpen.  My hope is that that move will shore up the bullpen and maybe change the dynamic a bit out there.  If that doesn’t work, the Cubs don’t have a lot of options at their disposal.  I’d like to see them bring up Andrew Cashner, who I believe has a future as a set-up man or closer, but the Cubs seem to be intent on making him into a starter.  So my guess is that he’ll remain in the rotation at AA Tennessee.

There’s always the possibility the Cubs could make a trade for someone like Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, or even Heath Bell, but a move for any of the three would be expensive.  Plus, with the exception of Bell, I’m not sure they would be getting anything that they don’t already have available.

It has been great watching Ryan Dempster, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Randy Wells pitch so well in the early going this year.  Unfortunately, we’ve also had to suffer through the pain of watching the bullpen give away too many games.  And at the moment, there is no reason to believe that is going to change in the near future.

Last week, Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers wrote on ChicagoBreakingSports.com that the Cubs were involved in discussions over a three way trade that would send Bradley to Texas, Kevin Millwood to the Mets and Luis Castillo to the Cubs.  I’m not sure who Rogers’ source was for this rumor (assuming he actually had a source), but officials with both the Cubs and Rangers immediately shot down the rumor.

Another rumor had the Blue Jays contacting the Cubs to drum up interest in Roy Halladay.  Carrie Muskat of MLB.com basically dismissed the possibility of Halladay joining the Cubs, saying:

“However, before Cubs fans start salivating at the prospect of the former Cy Young winner in the rotation with Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster, there’s a catch. He’s owed $15.75 million in 2010, and the Blue Jays want some of the Cubs’ top prospects. No. 1, the team can’t take on Halladay’s salary. The Blue Jays apparently have a wish list and Milton Bradley is not on it. A player like highly regarded shortstop Starlin Castro most likely is, and the Cubs don’t want to part with him, especially since they might only have Halladay for one year.”

I’m no hotshot reporter for MLB.com, but that seems like some pretty weak logic to me.  Muskat doesn’t have any idea how a potential trade would be structured, so she has no way of knowing if the Cubs would be adding the $15.75 million owed to Halladay to their current payroll.  What if the deal was Carlos Zambrano for Halladay with no money changing hands?  The Cubs would actually save money in that transaction.

As for not wanting to trade Starlin Castro to acquire Halladay, the Cubs would be foolish to make Castro untouchable in such a trade.  Castro looks very promising.  If everything works out, he’ll be the Cubs shortstop in the near future and perhaps for years to come.  Maybe.  We can’t be sure how Castro is going to develop.  What we do know is that Halladay is a legitimate staff ace.  He’s proven himself in arguably the toughest division in baseball.  Allowing Castro’s potential to stand in the way of acquiring the sure thing that is Roy Halladay just doesn’t make sense.

And the thing that really bothers mre about Muskat’s statement is that she is speaking for the Cubs.  How does she know that the Cubs don’t want to trade Castro?  Has she discussed it with Jim Hendry?  If so, did he say the Cubs don’t want to trade Castro?  Did he say Castro is untouchable?  Did he say any of this in relation to a potential trade for Roy Halladay?  I’ll bet the Cubs would not be willing to trade Castro to acquire Yuniesky Betancourt,  but a trade for Halladay is a completely different story.

Finally, Muskat says if the Cubs trade for Halladay, they might only have him for a year.  As things stand right now, that’s true.  However, my guess is that any team that trades for Halladay will want to first negotiate a contract extension with him.  That holds true for the Cubs as well.

I don’t mean to be too hard on Muskat.  Generally speaking she does a good (if uninspired) job reporting on all things Cubs related.  But this blurb about a possible trade for Roy Halladay just seemed to be defeatist in nature and tinged with the age-old idea that the Cubs can’t possibly acquire any of the best players in the game.

Moving on…Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that a trade for Curtis Granderson is still a possibility.  Detroit needs to reduce their payroll and is listening to offers for their center fielder (as well as other players).  Sullivan opines that the Cubs will not part with Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro to obtain Granderson.  I assume he is saying this because his colleague, Phil Rogers, wrote an article saying the Cubs should offer Marmol and Castro for Granderson, but again, how does he know the Cubs will not trade either player?  Is this his opinion or did someone with the Cubs say it?

Sullivan also discusses rumors involving signing free agents such as Marlon Byrd, Mike Cameron, Mark DeRosa, and Matt Holliday.  Sullivan thinks that Byrd and Cameron are possibilities, but Holliday and DeRosa aren’t going to happen.  I agree with Sullivan.  Holliday is out of reach and not a good fit.  DeRosa’s time has passed.  Even though I felt strongly that trading him was the wrong thing to do at the time, bringing DeRosa back now will in no way right that wrong.

Let me throw out one caveat concerning DeRosa.  It would not upset me too much for the Cubs to sign him for reasonable money on a one-year contract.  I’m almost positive that he’ll get multi-year offers from other teams, but if the Cubs can re-sign him at the right price, then I think his flexibility and leadership would be a welcome addition to the Cubs.  But again, I don’t think it’s going to happen.

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Phil Rogers has some rumors in the Boston Herald and his Cubs rumor says:

“Many in the Cubs’ front office think they would be foolish to give up Starlin Castro to get Curtis Granderson, but there are a lot of other ways to do the deal. General manager Jim Hendry appreciates all Granderson brings to the table, even though he has had trouble hitting left-handers in two of the last three seasons. Perhaps Granderson would benefit from working with new Cubs hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.”

Granderson would be a good fit for the Cubs, but it is going to be difficult for them to make any deals until they know what is going to happen with Milton Bradley.  Unfortunately, Bradley not only screwed up the team during the season, but he is getting in the way of improving it in the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs miss out on players like Granderson because they can’t/won’t pull the trigger on a trade or signing a free agent until the Bradley situation is settled.

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Gordon Wiitenmyer of the Sun-Times has corrected the information he originally gave concerning the two-year contract the Cubs signed with lefty John Grabow.  Originally, Wiitenmyer wrote that the contract was for a total of $7 million.  However, he now says that Garbow signed for a total of $7.5 million.

Wiitenmyer doesn’t say how the money is split up, but I read elsewhere that the first year is for $3.25 million and the second year is $4.25 million.  Unfortunately, I can’t find the article where I read these numbers, so take it for what it’s worth.

Phil Rogers writes on ChicagoBreakingSports.com that a new three-way trade may be in the works.  According to Rogers, the trade would send Bradley to Texas, Kevin Millwood to the Mets, and Luis Castillo to the Cubs.  This is a variation on an earlier rumor that had Bradley going to Tampa Bay, Pat Burrell to the Mets, and Castillo to the Cubs.

Honestly, this new three-way trade rumor makes more sense than the rumor involving Tampa Bay and Burrell.  The Mets need pitching and Millwood can fill their void.  Plus, Burrell is a DH and the Mets don’t have a need for one.

I wrote about Luis Castillo previously.  He is not the perfect acquisition, but he could fill the Cubs need for a second baseman.  The Mets are almost as anxious to get rid of him as the Cubs are to move Bradley.  For the Cubs and Mets, the rumored three-way trade makes sense.  For Texas, not so much.  But the Rangers do have a bit of pitching depth, they need some additional offense, and they need some salary relief.  If they can get Bradley, have the Cubs and Mets pick up most of the $21 million still owed to him, and move the $12 million owed to Millwood in 2010, maybe the deal will make sense to them after all.

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The Cubs shook up their bullpen a bit when they traded Aaron Heilman to Arizona and then signed John Grabow to a two-year contract.

In exchange for Heilman, the Cubs received two minor leaguers; LHP Scott Maine and 1B (and Chicago native) Ryne White (Little Ryno).  Neither player is a “top prospect,” but Heilman did not figure into the Cubs 2010 plans, so they were lucky to get anything for him rather than simply non-tender him.

The Grabow contract is for a total of $7 million.  Although it seems a bit high to me, Grabow did have a good 2009 and can be a veteran presence in what is shaping up to be a very young bullpen.  Also, contrary to some reports, Grabow is more than just a LOOGY.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs use Grabow as their 8th inning set-up man.

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The Cubs want to trade Milton Bradley and Jim Hendry is doing his best to make it seem like they don’t have to get rid of him.  That makes sense.  It’s hard to deal from a position of strength when you are begging other teams to take a player off your hands.

With that in mind, it can’t be good for Hendry’s “leverage” that Joe Posnanski has named Milton Bradley as the NL’s Least Valuable Player.  Posnanski says:

“Anyway, put it all together, and including those all-important intangibles, the 2009 LVP is Milton Bradley. He was lousy on defense (minus-12 Dewan in right; minus-4.7 UZR) and not much on offense (99 OPS+ and missed 38 games with injuries). Plus, he was his usual pleasant self .. leaving Cubs GM Jim Hendry publicly babbling about how the team doesn’t HAVE to trade Bradley, they might WANT to keep Bradley, hey some of the best trades are the ones you DON’T make — while privately Hendry’s working the phones like Judy the Time Life Operator to get rid of this guy…

“But he (Bradley) turns 32 in April. And he’s Milton Bradley. A scout once told me that Bradley is the only high school player he ever scouted who hit a home run and did not have a single teammate come out to congratulate him. He’s only signed for two more years — he’s due $9 million and $12 million. Think about all you get for the money.”

Posnanski goes on to say that Alfonso Soriano should also be in the discussion, but he’s still going to go with Bradley.  It’s nice that the Cubs have two players competing for NL Least Valuable Player award.

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I almost didn’t include this bit of news, but Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated is lumping the Cubs in with a group of teams that have an interest in Matt Holliday.  Seriously, Jon?  I suppose they have an interest in Holliday the same way they have an interest in John Lackey and Jason Bay.  Sure, they’d like to have all three players on their team, who wouldn’t.  But it’s not going to happen.

I don’t want to bash sportswriters.  God knows I spend more than my fair share reading them.  But how hard is it to just make up crap like this?  I usually like Jon Heyman, but I’m throwing the BS flag on this one.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that Texas continues to be a possible landing spot for Bradley, but only if the Cubs pick up a “sizable portion” of Bradley’s contract.  Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated suggests that the Cubs may have to eat $16 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years.  Is that really the best the Cubs can get for Bradley?

Bringing Bradley back next year seems highly unlikely.  According Heyman, Many Cubs players, including Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, won’t even talk to Bradley.  Others reportedly applauded when it was announced that Bradley had been suspended late last season. 

Early in the week there was a rumor of a three-team trade that would send Bradley to Toronto, Lyle Overbay to the Mets, and second baseman Luis Castillo to the Cubs.  However, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (writing in the Boston Herald), Toronto wants no part of Bradley.  Who can blame them?

Most reports seem to consider Texas, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco as the most likely trade partners for Bradley.  There’s been a lot of talk about how much of Bradley’s contract the Cubs would have to eat in a trade with the Rangers, but virtually nothing has been said about who the Cubs might receive in return.  I had previously suggested that a Bradley for Michael Young trade might make sense from a financial perspective for the cash-strapped Rangers, but that doesn’t appear to be the deal the Rangers are interested in making.

Trade rumors with Tampa Bay and San Francisco involve one bad contract for another.  With Tampa Bay, the trade rumor involves Bradley’s remaining two-years at a total of $21 million for Pat Burrell’s one remaining year and $9 million.  Obviously, the Cubs would have to kick in some money.

The Bradley-to-San-Francisco rumor involves sending Bradley’s remaining contract to the Giants for Aaron Rowand’s remaining three years and $36 million.

Of the three possibilities, the rumored deal with San Francisco makes the most sense to me.  Assuming the Cubs would not have to kick in any money, they would be taking on an additional year and an additional $16 million in payroll obligation, but at least they’ll be getting a player they can use.  With Texas and Tampa Bay, their are either just paying another team to take Bradley off their hands or they are taking on a player (Burrell) that they can’t use (or both).  Adding Aaron Rowand to the line-up isn’t the perfect solution, but it is better than the other rumors currently floating around.

Whatever happens, Jim Hendry would be well-advised to make it happen fast.  Bradley is and will continue to be a distraction until the Cubs are rid of him.  There will be no “perfect deals” coming along that will allow the Cubs to dump Bradley.  What they need to do is choose the least bad option and move on.

UPDATE: Well, you can cross the Giants off the list of potential trade partners for Milton Bradley.  In an article by Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Giants GM Brian Sabean said:

“A deal like that? For a player like that?” Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. “No. Is that succinct enough? I don’t know that addition by subtraction would work. Smarter people than us have tried that.”

Oh well.  Never say never, but it looks like any potential deal with San Francisco is dead.

Sullivan’s article also says that for the privilege of paying the Rangers $16 million or so to take Milton Bradley, the Cubs would receive a couple of unnamed, mid-level prospects to the Cubs.  Ouch…

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Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com has an interesting post up concerning where he thinks the top 50 free agents will end up this off season.  Of particular interest is that he thinks Rich Harden will sign with the Red Sox and the Cubs will sign Billy Wagner.

In his post, Dierkes suggests that Boston will take a risk and sign Harden to a one-year, $7 million contract.  He compares the signing to what Boston did last year when they signed Brad Penney and John Smoltz.

I believe that now that Ted Lilly is a bit of a question mark for the start of the 2010 season, the Cubs will offer Harden arbitration.  If he is looking for another deal in the $7 million range, I think he’ll accept.  However, I believe he is looking for something closer to $10 million per year and would naturally prefer a multi-year deal. 

If he hits the open market (the Cubs have until December 1 to offer arbitration), Harden will initially hold out for a multi-year contract.  If one is not forthcoming, he may agree to a one-year deal, but I have to believe it is going to be closer to $10 million than $7 million.  So if Tim is right and Boston signs Harden, it will have to be late in the off season when Harden has tested all of the other options. 

For what it’s worth, Harden says he really liked Chicago and his agent, Arn Tellem, says Harden is 100% healthy.  Even so, Harden’s injury history does not inspire confidence.  His is an interesting case, particularly in an ecomony where most teams don’t seem to be open to taking on too much risk unless the price is right.

On Billy Wagner, Tim says:

37.  Billy Wagner – Cubs.  The Cubs don’t have much payroll space, and they may prefer to go with Carlos Marmol as their closer.  Then again, they wouldn’t do so a year ago when Marmol was coming off a good season.  The Cubs could offer Wagner a chance to close, as could the Orioles, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Braves.  Even Wagner’s old teams, the Phillies and Astros, have back-end bullpen concerns.

Tim makes a great point here.  If the Cubs weren’t willing to hand the closer’s job to Marmol in 2009 after he had a really good 2008, why would they in 2010 after a 2009 season that saw Marmol lead all NL relievers in walks and hit batters?  Of course, Wagner’s contract expectations remain an issue.  He earned $10.5 million in 2010 and will likely be looking for a two or three year contract with a similar annual salary.  That’s a little rich for the Cubs’ blood.

Of course, this may be a moot point.  The Red Sox could offer Wagner arbitration and he could accept.  It seemed like a long-shot a week ago, but Wagner says that he enjoyed his time in Boston and his agent says he would possibly be open to accepting an arbitration offer.  As part of their trade with the Mets for Wagner, the Red Sox agreed not to exercise Wagner’s $8 million option for 2010, but they are free to offer the lefty arbitration.

Whatever happens, I strongly feel that the Cubs must address the closer role if they want to be a legitimate World Series contender in 2010.  If Wagner is not the answer, who is?

I previously mentioned Huston Street as a possibility.  He will receive an increase in arbitration from his 2009 salary of $4.5 million.  The Rockies don’t want to deal him, but may have to consider a trade in order to reach their budget goals.  Street would be one of their more marketable players and the Cubs would be one of several teams interested in the closer.

Another possibility is Francisco Cordero of the Reds.  The Reds are reportedly going to have to cut their budget from $71 million in 2009 to $65 to $70 million in 2010.  That might not seem like a big cut, but the Reds have contractual obligations totaling $66 million to just 10 players.  They are going to have to make some trades just to be able to field a full team.

Cordero is one of their most expensive players.  He’s signed through 2011 for $12 million per year with another $12 million club option for 2012 ($1 million buyout).  That’s expensive, but there are unfortunately no good, cheap options for the Cubs.

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are nearing a deal to re-sign John Grabow.  Rosenthal says the deal could be for two years.  It could also be for 100 years, but probably not. 

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The GM meetings end today.  Will Milton Bradley be traded?  More tomorrow…

In an article about the organizational meetings, the Trib’s Paul Sullivan indicated that the Cubs have an interest in Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Akinori Iwamura.  The Rays have until one day after the conclusion of the World Series to determine whether or not to exercise Iwamura’s $4.85 million option for 2010.  Sullivan speculated that the Cubs may try to trade Bradley to Tampa Bay in exchange for Iwamura and Pat Burrell.  In Sullivan’s scenario, the Cubs would then trade Burrell, probably to an American League team.

Iwamura could be a good fit for the Cubs.  He has a history of hitting at the top of the order and he is also an accomplished third baseman, something the Cubs could really use if Aramis Ramirez goes down with an injury again. 

T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com has revised his earlier statement that the Rangers would not consider a trade for Bradley.  It was believed that Bradley burned his bridges in Texas after he admitted that he had feigned injuries while with the Rangers in order to not hurt his stats in anticipation of signing a new contract.  But Texas is in bad financial trouble (Is there another kind?) and needs to regain some of the offense they lost in 2009.  Re-acquiring Bradley is one option.

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Carrie Muskat of MLB.com considers the free agent center field options in a recent blog post.  Of interest (at least to me) are Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli (Is he healthy?), and Mike Cameron.  Of course, I don’t think the Cubs will be looking too closely at any of these guys.  I expect their center fielder next year to come as a result of a Milton Bradley trade.  My best guess is that Aaron Rowand will be patrolling center field at Wrigley next year after the Cubs acquire him from San Francisco for Bradley.

For a complete rundown of what I’m predicting the 2010 Cubs to look like, check out A Look At The Offseason report I posted previously.

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Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors.com quotes Bruce Levine from ESPN Chicago who says that the Cubs are working towards a deal with John Grabow to bring the lefty back on a two-year deal worth $6.5 to $7.5 million per year.

I like Grabow and think he could be a very important piece to the Cubs bullpen next year.  Even so, does a multi-year deal for $6.5 to $7.5 million seem a bit steep?  Aren’t there other guys out there with Grabow’s skill set that could be had for less money and/or just one year?   Honestly, I don’t see this as a huge problem either way, but it just strikes me as a bit odd.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

In the field, the Cubs would prefer to add a center fielder and move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  If that center fielder is a middle-of-the-order run producer, all the better.  The team will also be looking for a second baseman, unless they can find a good shortstop, which will force Ryan Theriot over to second base.

The starting pitching staff is pretty well set, but the bullpen is a bit in flux.  Will John Grabow re-sign?  More importantly, do the Cubs want to enter the 2010 season with Carlos Marmol as their closer?

Over the next few days, I’ll take a look at the team and give my thoughts on what the Cubs brain trust should do this offseason to get ready for 2010.  Today, I’ll start with the infield.

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First Base — There’s little doubt who will play first base next year.  Derrek Lee will be entering the final year of his contract in 2010 and there’s no reason to believe he’s going anywhere.  However, the question of who is going to back him up is a good one.  Lee has missed playing time over the past couple of years with a pinched nerve in his neck.  If the problem flares up again, who will play first base?

Within the organization, Micah Hoffpauir is the first guy that comes to mind.  Jake Fox is another.  Both guys are considered “offense-first” type of players, but I think both showed this past year that they can do a credible, if unspectacular, job in the field.  Although Fox is generally considered the more potent offensive threat, they put up very similar number in 2009.  Hoffpauir bats left-handed, which may carry more weight in the decision than it should.  Fox is more versatile in the field.

Another option is for the Cubs to sign a fairly low dollar free agent who could back up at first base and be a dependable bat off the bench.  Someone on the back side of their career that can accept a backup role and can be an additional veteran presence.  Someone in the mold of Tony Clark or Kevin Millar comes to mind.  The knock against bringing in someone like Clark or Millar is they probably won’t put up any better numbers than Hoffpauir or Fox, but they will probably cost more.  That’s a good point.  So unless you feel that the veteran presence is that important, stick with Hoffpauir or Fox and save your money.

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Second Base — We found out in 2009 that Mike Fontenot is not the answer to the second base question.  The Cubs also have Aaron Miles, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco on the roster and all three can play second base.  Even so, I don’t think any of them is the answer the Cubs are looking for at second.

In my opinion, Aaron Miles does not have a role to play on the 2010 Cubs.  He needs to be traded or released.  I know that releasing him will cost some money, but keeping him on the team will waste a valuable roster spot.  If you can trade him, great, but be willing to release him if you have to.

I envision Jeff Baker playing the role of a poor man’s Mark DeRosa.  He impressed in his time with the Cubs last year and I can see him coming back in an expanded role.  I don’t foresee him as the everyday second baseman, but rather as a super sub.  He can play several positions and do a credible job at all of them.

Andres Blanco is an interesting player.  He’s known for his awesome defense, but what people don’t know is that his offense has improved since joining the Cubs.  My understanding is that Blanco battled injuries during the early part of his career and did not get the at-bats he so desperately needed.  Now that he is healthy, his offense is improving and is becoming a much larger part of his game.

Although it would not be my first choice, I could see a middle infield made up of Theriot and Blanco.  I’d prefer Blanco at short and Theriot at second, but the other way around could work as well.  In my opinion, the Cubs should only consider this if they can’t find a more suitable solution via free agency or a trade.

Some possible free agent targets the Cubs might consider are Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson and Akinori Iwamura.  I’m almost certain that Figgins will be too expensive (four or five years at $10 million/year?).  Also, he’s somewhat of a hot commodity at the moment, so there will be considerable competition for him.

Hudson is a little more realistic, but considering that he was beaten out of his starting job with the Dodgers by Ronnie Belliard, the bloom is a bit off this rose.  Even so, Hudson put up respectable numbers in 2009 (.283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI) and might be a good fit for the Cubs.  He’s neither the speed demon nor the middle-of-the-order run producer they want, but he’d likely do a better job than the in-house candidates.

Iwamura is an interesting possibility.  He’s currently with the Rays and they have an option on him for next year that will cost them $4.25 million.  The Ray are likely to opt for the buyout ($250,000) rather than pick up his option.  They have other less expense possibilities at second base, so Iwamura will likely be a free agent.

In 2009, Iwamura had a hitting line of .290/.355/.390 in 69 games.  Again, he’s not a speed demon or a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he could still be a nice addition to a Cubs team that had trouble getting on base this past year.

A couple of other free agent possibilities include Mark DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez.  I like both of these guys, but I don’t think either one makes sense.  DeRosa is going to be 35 years old and he’s coming off of wrist surgery.  He was once an integral part of the Cubs, but that ship has sailed. 

Sanchez is an interesting possibility.  San Francisco has a club option on Sanchez for $8 million with a $600,000 buyout.  Opinion has been that the Giants will opt for the buyout, but would like to sign him for less money.  Sanchez will be 32 in 2010 and will be coming off knee surgery.  He’s expected to be 100% healthy by Spring Training.

I like Sanchez and he interests me if the price is right.  Problem is, I don’t think the price will be right.

Another interesting free agent name is Placido Polanco, who will be 34 next season.  Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBI for Detroit in 2009.  He’s a career .303/.348/.414 hitter, but at least initially, the market seems to be soft for him.  He made $4.6 million last year.  If he is willing to take a pay cut, he’ll be in the Cubs financial ball park.  If not, he’ll be playing for someone else next year.

Potential trade targets include Kelly Johnson (Atlanta) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore).  Roberts would obviously cost the Cubs much more that Johnson.  In fact, the only way Roberts could conceivably end up with the Cubs is if he is part of a package involving Milton Bradley.  I’ve pushed the idea of a Milton Bradley and others package for Roberts and Luke Scott.  I don’t know if either Jim Hendry or Orioles GM Andy MacPhail have jumped on that bandwagon yet, but I’ll keep beating the drum.

Johnson doesn’t seem to bring anything to the table that Baker or Blanco couldn’t provide.  He’s the type of player that Hendry has shown an interest in in the past, but I don’t think he makes sense for the Cubs.

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Shortstop — Unless the Cubs make some sort of unexpected move, Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop in 2010.  Let’s face it, despite the call for an all-star caliber shortstop by many fans, Theriot has done a more than credible job during his tenure.  In 2009, he hit .284/.383/.369 with 7 homeruns and 54 RBI.  And he only made $500,000.  What a bargain.

Blaco is another guy that could conceivable take over short and push Theriot over to second.  Eventually, I think Starlin Castro will do this anyway, so maybe it’s a good idea to get Theriot started at second now. 

Although I don’t expect the Cubs to bring in a shortstop via trade or free agency, there are a couple of names out there to consider.  I don’t foresee the Cubs getting in on Marco Scutaro, but there is a small chance they could take a flyer on Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada.  The reason I think these two guys may be on the Cubs radar is because I expect both to still be available at the end of the offseason for a relatively bargain price (ala Bobby Abreau last year).  It wouldn’t bother me to get a veteran shortstop for a year to hold the position for Starlin Castro in 2011.  However, I don’t expect it to happen.

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Third Base — With any luck, Aramis Ramirez will return healthy next year and will stay healthy all year.  He missed two months in 2009 with a shoulder separation and trying to fill his place in the lineup and in the field proved to be ctwo hallenges the Cubs were not up for.  So who will be Ramirez’ backup in 2010?

Jake Fox is one internal possibility.  He’s not going to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he did a better job there than many expected.  With some additional work, he might even be credible.

Jeff Baker is another guy that can fill in for Ramirez.  In fact, I never did quite understand why the Cubs didn’t give Baker more playing time at third in 2009 while Ramirez was injured.  As the team’s super sub, I would call on him to fill in at third when needed.  As such, I don’t foresee and moves to bring in a backup for Ramirez.

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Catcher — Who is the real Geovany Soto?  Did we see the real Soto in 2008 when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors and hit .285/.364/.504 with 26 homeruns and 62 RBI or was his .218/.321/381 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 2009 the real Soto?  I wish I knew.  I think the Cubs feel the same way.

Soto’s performance in 2008 was a pleasant surprise.  His minor league numbers didn’t lead people to think he would hit as well in a full-time MLB role as he did.  Now, after his performance in 2009, people are asking whether or not 2008 was just a fluke.

I have little doubt that the Cubs will enter the 2010 season with Soto as their starting catcher.  However, I’m not convinced that they will stick with him for very long if he struggles at the plate the way he did in 2009.

The Cubs will not look to replace Soto via trade or free agency, but they may look into bringing back free agent catcher Henry Blanco to act as a mentor to Soto.  There is some thought that Soto struggled in 2009 without the same influence that Blanco provided in 2008.  Blanco will be 38 years old, so the Cubs should not expect too much out of him, but if he can play the role of mentor to Soto and give him a day off every once in a while, bringing Blanco back on a one-year deal may be a good investment.

Having said all of this, I think it is fair to ask, what about Koyie Hill?  Hill was a capable fill in for Soto while he was on the DL and during his offensive struggles.  He deserves to be brought back.  Unfortunately, things don’t always work out the way they should.  Since Hill is out of minor league options, he may be moved as part of a trade.

It would not bother me to see Hill brought back next year, but the more important issue is putting Soto in a situation where he can  succeed.  If bringing Henry Blanco back improves Soto’s chances of repeating 2008, by all means, bring Blanco back and trade Hill.

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That’s it for the infield.  Next, I’ll look at what needs to be done with the outfield.

The Cubs pitching staff is in pretty good shape for next year.  Starter Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will likely take the top four spots (barring any trades), with Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija fighting it out for the fifth spot.

The bullpen may also be pretty well set.  Two of the three pitchers listed above that will be competing for the fifth starter role will likely end up in the bullpen.  Carlos Marmol will be closing, which leaves four or five additional positions in the bullpen.

Assuming Angel Guzman is healthy, he’ll claim one spot.  John Grabow is slated to be a free agent, but the Cubs are working on an extension for him and he has indicated that he would like to return.  If he does, he’ll claim another spot.  The finally two or three spots will go to any combination of David Patton, Esmailan Caridad, Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub.  There’s also a chance that the Cubs may try to resign Aaron Heilman, who Miles points out had a decent second half this year.

It’s fair to say that the vast majority of the offseason action is going to be focused on the position players.  A little tweaking here and there (like resigning John Grabow) may take place, but don’t expect many changes to the pitching staff.

Caveat: Of course, this assumes that none of the Cubs pitchers are involved in trades.  My gut tells me that a couple of the guys listed above will not be Cubs when the 2010 season rolls around.

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Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago (the “other” Bruce) has a new article up wherein he says:

The most likely scenario in the offseason will have the team allowing right-hander Rich Harden to test the free-agent waters. The Cubs will not offer arbitration to Harden, who was their top strikeout pitcher in 2009. Credit should be given to the Cubs’ medical and training staff, which did a fabulous job keeping the oft-injured pitcher on the mound the last year and a half. And to Harden’s credit, the extra work he did last offseason was also a key factor in his ability to make 26 starts this season.

No disrespect to Mr. Levine, but I think he’s wrong.  I expect the Cubs to offer arbitration to Harden and I expect Harden to turn it down, thus giving the Cubs a second round draft pick from the team that eventually signs him (Harden is a type B free agent). 

As a type B free agent, Harden knows that it is more likely that a team will sign him, potentially even to a multi-year deal.  They will not be as shy about signing him as they would have been had he been a type A free agent.  So it’s in the Cubs best interest to get something for him.  Worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and the Cubs end up with a good pitcher with the potential to be great if he can stay healthy.

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2009 is the 25th anniversary of the Cubs 1984 NL East winning season.  It was the first time since 1945 that a Cubs team had gone to the post season, so for Cubs fans, the 1984 team and season was very special.

Tony Arnold from WBEZ in Chicago is interviewing the various members of that 1984 team, including league-MVP and future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg remembers the season vividly, including the excitement at Wrigley as the season wore on, peopler gathering on the rooftops across from Wrigley for the first time, as well as specfic games and plays.  Take a listen to what Ryno remembers about the great 1984 season.

I don’t have any particular interest in either team.  And yet, I sat transfixed in front of the television as the two teams battled back and forth.  And just as the regular season needed one additional game, that additional game needed extra innings to determine a winner.

The Twins won in 12 innings, but the more important point, at least for me, was how much I loved watching the game.  I didn’t have a rooting interest, so the outcome was less important to me than the gutsy play of both teams.  It was a great game and I loved every minute of it.  I’m just sorry it had to end so soon.

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The 29 other MLB owners gave their unanimous approval yesterday for the Ricketts Family to take over the Cubs.  The next step in the process is to take the Cubs through a quick, pre-packaged bankruptcy to make sure there are no liens or liabilities the parties are unaware of.  That should happen next week and the Rickettses should have complete control of the team by the end of October.

What will happen then?  Will Tom Ricketts want to make a big splash going into the family’s first season as owners?  Will he spend a lot of money (more than the $140 million +/- the team is already spending) or will he reign in the spending and go into rebuild mode (doubtful)?  There are a lot of moving pieces with the Cubs right now.  It should make for an interesting and exciting offseason.

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Two Chicago sportswriters have put together to-do lists for Jim Hendry.  Both writers agree that moving Milton Bradley will be job one in the offseason for Hendry, but Gordon Wiitenmyer of the Sun-Times seems to be a bit more positive about the situation than the Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. 

Among the things the writers have listed are:

• Trade Milton Bradley
• Get an RBI bat for the middle of the lineup
• Resign John  Grabow
• Resigning Reed Johnson (maybe)
• Retool the bench
• Add a lead-off hitter
• Get and keep Carlos Zambrano in shape

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Bruce Miles at the Daily Herald also is starting to think about next year.  He takes a look at the Cubs position players from 2009 and gives his thoughts on what he thinks is going to happen with each player and each position.

Miles is an astute writer who always seems to see through the haze to get the “real” story.  There are two particular passages from his article that give the Ying and Yang of this Cubs team:

3B Aramis Ramirez: Maybe once and for all, people will realize what a potent offensive force Ramirez is. His season was cut to 82 games because of the shoulder. He turned in a hitting line of .317/.389/.516 with 15 homers and 65 RBI.
Nuggets: You may or may not believe there are “clutch” hitters, but Ramirez batted .425 with runners in scoring position (37-for-87). He was 5-for-11 with the bases loaded.

IF Aaron Miles: Somebody has to be the worst player in baseball, or at least the worst veteran, and that dubious distinction may go to Miles, whose hitting line is .185/.224/.242. And to think he completed only the first year of a two-year, $4.9 million contract.
Nuggets: In Baseball Prospectus’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) system, Miles ranked 1,018th, at minus-13.4. At least he ranked ahead of Ronny Cedeno.

The thing that amazes me about Aramis Ramirez is that he missed half of the season and still managed to be a more potent offensive force than guys like Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley who played the vast majority of the season.  The thing that amazes me about Aaron Miles is that he received a two-year, $4.9 million contract last offseason.  Jim Hendry does love his scrappy little second baseman, doesn’t he?  It wouldn’t surprise me if Miles was released this winter.

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If you’re interested in a funny, irreverent, and perhaps completely inappropriate parody column from the frozen head of Ted Williams, then check out the FoxSports website.