Check out these links to read the earlier posts from this series:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million? Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher

Today, I want to look at left field.  It’s a little tricky examining the outfield positions because players can and do move from one outfield slot to another fairly easily and often.  To make things a little easier, I’ll be considering each outfield position as an individual position and I’ll only be comparing each Cubs outfielder to outfielders from the highest payroll teams who play the exact same outfield position.

Here are the left fielders we’ll be examining:

• Johnny Damon (Yankees)
• Daniel Murphy (Mets)
• Alfonso Soriano (Cubs)
• Josh Anderson (Tigers)
• Raul Ibanez (Phillies)
• Jason Bay (Red Sox)

Let’s take a look at how the left fielders compare based on salary:

• Alfonso Soriano ($16 Million)
• Johnny Damon ($13 Million)
• Jason Bay ($7.5 million)
• Raul Ibanez ($6.5 million)
• Daniel Murphy ($401,000)
• Josh Anderson ($400,000)

This is the first time we have seen a Cubs player at the top of salary rankings for a position.  I think it is easy for Cubs fans to forget what an elite player Alfonso Soriano was prior to the 2009 season.  He had been a 40/40 guy when he was in Washington and he helped lead the Cubs to the playoffs in 2007 and 2008.  Obviously, things didn’t go according to plan in 2009 and the bloom is a bit off the rose with Soriano.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.

In looking at the 2009 rosters and the performance of each player during that season, I like to begin by looking at the performance numbers for the 2008 season.  It gives me a feel for how the players was performing heading into the 2009 season and gives me an idea of why and how they ended up in the starting lineup for a high payroll team in 2009.

With that in mind, let’s look at how the players rank based on 2008 WAR:

1. Johnny Damon (WAR 3.6)
2. Alfonso Soriano (WAR 3.1)
3. Jason Bay (WAR 2.9)
4. Raul Ibanez (WAR 2.2)
5. Daniel Murphy (WAR 0.9)
6. Josh Anderson (WAR 0.7)

Although Soriano had a terrific year in 2008 — .280/.344/.532 with 29 homeruns and 79 RBI — he missed significant time on the DL which hurt his WAR score.  As an aside, I like this aspect of WAR.  Even the best player in the world can’t help his team if he is not on the field playing. 

To get a feel for how these players hit in 2008 despite spending time on the DL, let’s look at their OPS+:

1. Jason Bay (OPS+ 134)
2. Daniel Murphy (OPS + 129)
3. Raul Ibanez (OPS+ 123)
4. Alfonso Soriano (OPS+ 119)
5. Johnny Damon (OPS+ 118)
6. Josh Anderson (OPS+ 101)

Wow, that’s surprising.  There’s a few things that jump out at me about this list.  First, although Jason Bay split his 2008 between Pittsburgh and Boston, the change of teams obviously didn’t hurt his production.  Daniel Murphy finished second in OPS+, but it should be pointed out that he only had 131 ABs.  Of course, he made the most of those at-bats and it earned him a starting job in left field for the Mets in 2009.

Although Soriano finished fourth out of our six left fielders, he still had a decent OPS+.  Probably not the kind of OPS+ you’d pay $16 million for, but still not horrible.

Next, let’s move to 2009 WAR:

1. Raul Ibanez (WAR 4.2)
2. Jason Bay (WAR 3.5)
3. Johnny Damon (WAR 3.0)
4. Daniel Murphy (WAR 0.6)
5. Josh Anderson (WAR -0.3)
6. Alfonso Soriano (WAR -0.7)

Soriano was really bad in 2009.  To give you an idea of how out-of-character Soriano’s 2009 season was, it was the first time in his career that he put up a WAR ranking below 1.5.  That should give Cubs fans reason to hope that he bounces back in 2010.  However, until that happens, Soriano’s 2009 performance will remain fresh in our minds.

Moving on to OPS+ for 2009.  How did Soriano rank?

1. Jason Bay (OPS+ 134)
2. Raul Ibanez (OPS+ 131)
3. Johnny Damon (OPS+ 126)
4. Daniel Murphy (OPS+ 95)
5. Alfonso Soriano (OPS+ 84)
6. Josh Anderson (OPS+ 52)

This should be no surprise.  The top three guys had very good years.  The bottom three guys did not.  We saw it with out eyes and the stats bear it out.

As for Soriano, 2009 was the worst OPS+ he has put up in his career since he became a full-time starter in 2001.  Again, it gives reason to believe that 2010 will be a much better year for Soriano.

So how do the left fielders rank?  Let’s take a look.

1. Jason Bay (Red Sox)
2. Raul Ibanez (Phillies)
3. Alfonso Soriano (Cubs)
4. Johnny Damon (Yankees)
5. Daniel Murphy (Mets)
6. Josh Anderson (Tigers)

In many ways, this is an odd group to rank.  Murphy has lost his starting job with the Mets (although he may play first base), Anderson lost his starting job last year during the season and was eventually sold to the Royals.  He recently signed a minor league deal with the Reds. 

Jason Bay moved from the Red Sox to the Mets and Johnny Damon is still looking for work.  I think it’s safe to say that, with the exception of Jason Bay, none of the other players in our survey are among the very top of left fielders in the game.  In addition to Bay, players such as Carl Crawford, Ryan Braun, and Matt Holliday spring to mind as the games top left fielders.  When he’s right, Soriano is among this group, but he certainly wasn’t right in 2009.  It remains to be seen if he can get back to being one of the game’s top hitters in 2010.

Bottom Line: Judging Alfonso Soriano at after the horrendous season he had in 2009 is a tough thing to do.  His reputation in the minds of a lot of baseball fans has been tarnished and he’s going to have to prove himself going forward to regain the reputation he once had.

Having said that, my quest is to judge the Cubs left fielder based on his standing going in to the 2009 season to determine if he is one of the top left fielders in baseball.  Despite his dismal showing in 2009, Soriano was one of the top left fielders in the game going into the season.  His combination of power and speed is rare in the game and it is what convinced the Cubs to sign him to a long-term, high dollar contract. 

Going forward, I’m very concerned about is going to happen to Soriano’s ability.  Already, we’ve seen injuries to his legs that has significantly reduced his running ability.   But looking back to when Soriano was signed and remembering his performances during the playoff years of 2007-08, it’s understandable why the Cubs wanted Soriano in their outfield.  For that reason, I can fault them for starting him in left field.  Entering the 2009 season, he was one of the better left fielders in baseball.

There are a ton of possibilities for center field on both the free agent and trade markets.  Today, I’d like to take a look at who’s available on the free agent market:

Free Agents

Rick Ankiel — Ankiel is a good story.  He was a pitcher with great stuff who couldn’t throw strikes, so he converted himself into an outfielder so he could get back to the big leagues.  They should make a movie about him.  But should the Cubs sign him?  In St. Louis last year, Ankiel hit .231/285/.387 with 11 homeruns and 38 RBI.  Ankiel suffered through several bumps and bruises throughout 2009, limiting him to 122 games.  He earned $2.825 million last year and is reportedly looking for a big contract (Scott Boras is his agent).

Marlon Byrd — The Cubs seem to be focusing on Byrd.  Now that Mike Cameron has signed with the Red Sox, Byrd seems like the consensus “next choice.”  I’m not so sure.  He had a good year last year in Texas (sound familiar?), but to me, he seems overrated.  In 2009, he hit .283/.329/.422 with 20 homeruns and 89 RBI.  He made $3.6 million in 2009 and is looking for a multi-year deal, probably in the $7-$8 million per year range.

Rocco Baldelli — I have to admit to liking Baldelli.  He’s another guy with a good story, having overcome mitochodrial disorder to continue his MLB career.  He always plays like it’s his last day in baseball and is so gung-ho that he had the MLB logo tatooed on his calf.  But should he be the Cubs’ center fielder?  In 2009 with Boston he hit .253/.311/.433 with 7 homeruns and 23 RBI in 62 games.  A hip flexor strain kept him out of action for a good part of the year.  The 28-year old Baldelli earned only $500,000 in 2009 and would probably be willing to sign a reasonable one-year contract.  Because of that, I like him for the 2010 Cubs.  Also, because he hits lefties so well, perhaps he could be part of a platoon.

Ryan Church — Church played 23 games in center field last year and put togeter a UZR/150 rating of -37.8.  His career UZR/150 in center is -3.5.  He’s much better in right field.  So, to say that he can play center field is a bit of a misnomer.  He has played center field, but he has not played it well.  Church really belongs in right field and the Cubs should not consider him for center.

Coco Crisp — In 2009, Crisp hit .228/.336/.378 with 3 homeruns and 14 RBI in just 49 games for Kansas City.  His biggest asset is his fielding.  He sports an overall UZR/150 of 5.8 in center field, although it was 19.6 in limited action last year.  He earned $5.75 million in 2009 and Kansas City decided not to exercise his $8 million option for 2010.  Did You Know?:  Coco’s real first name is Covelli.

Johnny Damon — Can Damon play center field any more?  The Yankees didn’t think so.  He hasn’t played center field since 2008, and even then he only played 34 games there.  At this point in his career, I consider Damon a left fielder/DH.  In 2009, he hit .282/.365/.489 for the Yankees with 24 homeruns and 82 RBI.  He also scored 107 runs.  He earned $13 million in 2009 and is reportedly looking for a two or three year deal for similar money.  I think Damon can still be a legit lead-off hitter, but he’s too expensive for the Cubs and really doesn’t play the position they are trying to fill.

Jerry Hairston, Jr.  — I have always pulled for Hairston, especially when he was with the Cubs.  He was a Chicago area guy (grew up in Naperville) and he was versatile, playing all over the field.  In center field, he has a career UZR/150 rating of 17.5.  In 2009, he started the year with the Reds, but ended up the year playing for the Yankees.  That’s quite a change.  Between the two teams, Hairston hit .251/.315/.394 with 10 homeruns and 39 RBI.  He earned $2 million in 2009.  If he’s willing to sign for a year and reasonable money ($1-$2 million) he might be a good gamble, but I don’t see him with the Cubs in 2010.

Reed Johnson — Johnson wasn’t offered arbitration by the Cubs, but there has been talk that they are interested in re-signing him.  He has been a good pickup, after being released by Toronto following Spring Training in 2008.  In 2009, Johnson hit .255/.330/.415 with 4 homeruns and 22 RBI in 65 games.  Johnson spent a good chunk of the 2009 season on the DL with a broken foot.  He earned $3 million in 2009 and my guess is that he is looking for a one-year deal for about the same money.  Johnson hits left handed pitching very well and makes for a good platoon partner.

Scott Podsednik — Scotty Pods has been a fan favorite on the Southside of Chicago.  His hitting stats are never that impressive, but he seems to be able to rise to the ocassion.  In 2009, he hit .304/353/.412 for the White Sox with 7 homeruns and 48 RBI (actually, not that bad).  He also stole 30 bases in 2009 and could be the lead-off hitter the Cubs covet.   As a center fielder, he’s below average, posting a career UZR/150 rating of -5.6.  He earned $800,000 in 2009, but is reportedly looking for a three-year/$12 million deal.  If that’s the case, then I say the Cubs should take a pass.  But a reasonable one-year deal might be worth looking at.

Randy Winn — Winn hit .262/.318/.353  with two homeruns and 51 RBI for the Giants in 2009.  He earned $8.25 million and at 35-years old, is almost certainly not going to make that much in 2010.  However, I would expect Winn to hold out for a multi-year contract, which should make him unattractive to the Cubs.  I’ve always thought of Winn as a good fielder, but his UZR/150 rating doesn’t bear that out.  He hasn’t had a positive rating in center field since 2005 and his career rating in center is -1.3. 

In my next post, I’ll take a look at possible trade candidates to fill the void in center field.

Others were more optimistic about a deal getting done soon.  Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago wrote that the Cubs were on the verge of making a deal and that it could be announced as early as Tuesday.  Of course, Tuesday came and went without any news, but a team source told Bruce Miles that an announcement could come Wednesday.

Jim Hendry and his deputies are being extremely tight lipped about what teams he’s talking to.  Carrie Muskat of MLB.com said that Hendry is talking to an AL team, but that it’s not either Tampa Bay nor Texas.  Later in the day, she Tweeted that is was neither Seattle nor Toronto.  At this point, we don’t know who the mystery team might be.  All we know is who it is not.

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times also lists a mystery team and says that the deal could involve the Cubs receiving a player that they will then have to flip.  Sound familiar?  Wittenmyer confirms that  the deal does not involve the Rays or Rangers.  This is a different rumor than we’ve heard before.

Tomorrow is the final day of the Winter Meetings.  Could a deal be announced tomorrow.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed.  The Milton Bradley soap opera has already dragged on too long.

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Let me change gears a little bit right now and get a little angry.  I’m going to have to manufacture a little anger because, the truth is, I’m really not angry.  But I feel like I should be.

You see, Curtis Granderson, probably the best fit to play center field for the Cubs next year, was traded today by the Tigers to the New York Yankes (MLBTradeRumors.com has the complete story on the three-team trade).  While the Cubs screwed around trying to trade a guy they should have never signed in the first place, other teams made deals, improved their teams, and got themselves ready for 2010.  The Cubs just did a lot of talking.

The Cubs have a few needs they must address this off season, but everything is on hold until they can trade Bradley.  So far, they have lost out on Billy Wagner.  They’ve lost out on Takashi Saito, and today they lost out on Curtis Granderson.  I don’t know if they could have signed/traded for any of these players.  What I do know is that all three could have filled a need for the Cubs.  I also know that all three are now off the board.   Whether or not the Cubs would have acquired any of the three is not the point.  The point is that they couldn’t even get involved on any of them (whether they wanted to or not) because their hands are tied.

Okay, now for a little reality.  I know that Jim Hendry is in a tough position (at least partially of his own making).  The Milton Bradley “situation” is a little complicated and it’s going to take some hard work, creativity, and time to get it figured out.  It sucks that the Bradley is tying the Cubs hands, but that’s the reality of the situation.  Getting angry doesn’t help.

I’m hopeful that Hendry and crew can get a deal done today before the Meetings end.  There’s a window of opportunity here that is closing quickly.  After the meetings, it’s harder to catch up with other GMs and be able to sit down with them at a moment’s notice.  Obviously, deals can be done outside the Winter Meetings.  It happens all of the time.  But the Meetings do provide a once-a-year opportunity that the Cubs need to use to their advantage.

**********

Does the trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees open up any opportunities for the Cubs?  Perhaps.  For instance, what are the Yankees going to do with switch-hitting center fielder Melky Cabrera now?  Is he expendable?  Could he be a fit for the Cubs?  What would the Cubs need to give up to get him?

What about Johnny Damon?  It’s been suggested that trading for Granderson makes it less likely that the Yankees will re-sign Damon.  If so, could Damon be a fit for the Cubs?  Can he still play center field?  Can the Cubs afford him?  Might Damon be the lead-off hitter the Cubs are looking for.

Now that Detroit has traded Granderson, might they be open to a Milton Bradley for Magglio Ordonez swap?  Detroit reportedly needs to dump some salary.  Ordonez is owed $18 million in 2010 with a club (vesting) option in 2011 for $15 million.  He can’t play center field, but he can still hit.  Is Detroit the mystery team all of the writers were talking about?

These are just some random thoughts brought on by the Granderson trade.  As they say, when one door closes, another one opens.  Has another door opened for the Cubs?

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Here’s a random rumor with absolutely no factual basis.  I found it on another blog, but thought it was interesting enough to share here.

Could the mystery AL team be the White Sox?  And could a deal that would send Bradley to the Southside bring Alex Rios to the Northside?

This deal may not be as far fetched as you might think.  Rios is owed $58.7 million between 2010 – 2014.  He also has a club option for 2015 for $13.5 million with a $1 million buyout.  Rios brings a relatively similar skill set to Bradley’s, but without the headaches.  Of course, his contract is for three guaranteed years more than Bradley, so the Cubs are committing much more money long term to Rios.  However, it could be argued that the Cubs would be better off paying more money long-term to have a servicable player than they would be to simply pay another team several million just to take Bradley off their hands.

Ozzie Guillen is said not to be too fond of Rios.  The White Sox are looking for a DH who can also play in the field.  At least in theory, the two teams seem to match up. 

Can you imagine Ozzie Guillen trying to deal with Bradley?  It could potentially be hilarious.  Of course, IF they can make it work, and IF Bradley can return to his 2008 form, the White Sox could really rub it in the Cubs faces.  And we all know they would love to do that.

At the moment, this trade rumor is nothing but speculation.  But isn’t it fun to dream this stuff up and then try to figure how to get it done?

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ESPN announced that the Dalai Lama of baseball, Peter Gammons, will be leaving the network following the Winter Meetings.  I have the utmost respect for Gammons and love to hear his thoughts on all things baseball (and music).  It’s true that he is far too often Red Sox-centric (with a little Yankees news thrown in for good measure), but he’s so good, it’s easy to forgive him.

The announcement from ESPN simply said that Gammons will be pursuing “new endevors.”  I’m not sure what that means, but I’ve heard that he’ll be joining the MLB Network.  Whatever he does, I’m sure he’ll do great.

UPDATE:  MLB.com is reporting that Peter Gammons will be joining both MLB.com and the MLB Network to be an on-air and online analyst.  Gammons will also be working with NESN, the New England-based network that broadcasts the Red Sox games.  The move will presumably allow Gammons to contine to do the work he loves while spending more time at his homes in Boston and Cape Cod.

If the Cubs are actually interested in Granderson (I think they are), they are not going to be alone.  According to Ken Davidoff of Newsday, both the Yankees and Angels have an eye on the Detroit center fielder.  Presumably, the Yankees would move Melky Cabrera to left to accommodate Granderson in center.  The move would also lessen the need/likelihood of the Yankees bringing back Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, or both.

The Angels are interested in using Granderson as a left fielder (since they already have Torii Hunter in center).  A Granderson trade by the Angels would force Juan Rivera over to right field, or off the field completely and into the DH role.

Regardless of the competition for Granderson, Jim Callis of Baseball America (via MLBTradeRumors.com) thinks the Cubs are in the best position to make a trade with Detroit.  At the moment, the Cubs have a plethora of young middle infield talent that may interest Dombrowski and the Tigers. 

In an article from a couple of days ago, Phil Rogers of Chicago Breaking Sports.com opined that the Cubs should offer up Carlos Marmol and Starlin Castro for Granderson.  I disagreed with Rogers as far as Castro goes, but I agreed that the Cubs should aggresively pursue Granderson.  Today, in his latest article, Rogers throws Josh Vitters and Andrew Cashner into the mix. 

One guy that I really trust on matters involving the Cubs, especially the minor leagues, is Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter.com.  Somewhat surprisingly, Arizona Phil says that he too would trade Starlin Castro for Curtis Granderson.  In comment #15, Arizona Phil admits that Castro is the Cubs best shortstop prospect, but also says that the Cubs have other good prospects at short as well.

In comment #13, Arizona Phil says:

“Curtis Granderson is exactly the type of speed/power combo player Jim Hendry and Gary Hughes love. If he is available, I believe Hendry will go after him, even if it costs the Cubs Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner or Jay Jackson, and a third pre-arb auto-renewal guy (like maybe U. of Michigan alum Jake Fox?).”

I would be hesitant including Castro in a trade for Granderson.  However, generally speaking, I think you are almost always better off trading an unproven minor leaguer for a proven major leaguer.  Starlin Castro looks like he has the makings of a big league star, but how many players have looked exactly the same way in the past and have fizzled once they reached the big leagues?  Too many to count. 

I don’t want to gut the Cubs farm system for Granderson, but one of the purposes of developing prospects is to use them as trade bait for proven big league players.  Too often, I think we as fans fall in love with the Cubs prospects and we want to make then untouchable.  However, very few guys ever make it to the big leagues with the team that drafted them.  More often than not, they make it to the big leagues with their second or third team (if they make it at all). 

 I can live with including Castro in a package for Granderson.  It would annoy me a bit, but I could live with it.

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As you may recall, in a report on ESPN Chicago radio a few days ago, Bruce Levine said that he expected the Cubs to announce a trade involving Milton Bradley.  The announcement hasn’t come yet, but I have heard an interesting rumor that actually makes some sense.

The oft quoted (at least in this post) Arizona Phil of The Cub Reporter threw out the possibility of the Cubs trading Bradley to Tampa Bay in exchange for Pat Burrell.  Phil believes the two teams will split Bradley’s 2011 salary.

Once they obtain Burrell, the Cubs will turn around and trade him to the Mets for Luis Castillo.  The Mets badly want to trade Castillo and the move will open up a spot at second base for free agent Orlando Hudson.

From the Cubs perspective, they’ll get rid of Bradley and the trade will allow them to add Castillo at second.  Castillo will turn 35 during the 2010 season.  He hit .302/.369/.354 in 2009 for the Mets with 1 homerun and 40 RBI. Castillo is signed through 2011 and is set to earn $6 million per year.  In 2009, Castillo had the worst fielding year of his career according to Fangraphs, with a UZR/150 rating of -12.0.

The Cubs are desperate to get rid of Bradley, and the fact that they may end up  with Luis Castillo shows just how desperate they are.  To be fair, it appears that most teams interested in trading for Bradley are teams that will only make a trade if the Cubs pay all/most of Bradley’s salary.  So although Castillo is not the ideal second baseman, Jim Hendry would probably be lucky to get him, if it means not having to pay too much of the $21 million still owed to Bradley.  I guess I can’t be too critical if the move helps the Cubs dump Bradley and add a piece (albeit a not very good piece) that they need (i.e. a second baseman).

This three-way trade is by no means perfect, but it may just be the best that the Cubs can do.  And when it comes to getting rid of Milton Bradley, that may be enough.