In Fontenot’s defense, a lot was asked of him.  Being handed a big league starting gig is a lot of responsibility, especially for a guy who had never been given that chance before.  So you could say, Fontenot didn’t rise to the occasion.  He was given an opportunity and he didn’t take advantage of it.

But Fontenot wasn’t just asked to be the Cubs starting second baseman.  When Aramis Ramirez when down with a shoulder injury, Fontenot was asked to move over to third base — a position he had never played in the big leagues – to replace the former all-star.  To Fontenot’s credit, he played a credible third base, but his hitting never did take off.

I opined here on a few occasions that Mike Fontenot is not the type of starting second baseman that a team with a $140 million payroll should be giving a starting job to.  Despite that fact, he was given a chance in 2009 and failed to take advantage.  My hope was that the Cubs would make a move to add a legitimate big league second baseman for 2010, but that didn’t happen.  Jim Hendry didn’t seem to be interested in adding a second baseman during the off season and the Cubs have gone to Spring Training with Fontenot and Jeff Baker fighting it out for the starting gig.

But last week, Lou Pinella said that he would give Fontenot an opportunity at shortstop with an eye toward being Ryan Theriot’s back up.  In his career, Fontenot has played a total of four games at shortstop.  In those four games, he has had a total of four chances and has committed two errors.  He has a fielding percentage of .500 and a UZR150 rating at shortstop of -257.0.  In case you’re not familar with these stats, let me just say that they are really bad.

If Fontenot makes the team as the back up shortstop, he will likely displace Andres Blanco, a superb defensive shortstop.  Blanco has a UZR150 rating of 12.4.  In 2009, in 138 plate appearances, Blanco hit .252/.303/.341 with one homerun and 12 RBI.  Blanco is the very definition of a defensive replacement.  He’s the epitome of the type of player you want on your bench as a late inning replacement.

To make things even a bit more complicated, Blanco is out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he’s almost assuredly gone.  The Cubs won’t be able to send him to the minors unless he clears waivers, and it’s unlikely that he would clear waivers.  Some other team will view Blanco as a great option as a backup infielder, and they’ll claim him.

Meanwhile, the Cubs will have Mike Fontenot as their backup middle infielder.  A guy who barely hits better than Blanco (and there’s a good argument to be made that he doesn’t hit as well as Blanco), but cannot field anywhere near as good as Blanco.  Why would the Cubs do this?

There are a couple of reasons.  If Fontenot can make the team as the backup shortstop and backup/starting second baseman, a spot will be open on the 25-man roster.  That spot would likely be taken by Kevin Millar (assuming Chad Tracy already has a spot on the bench).

Fontenot also has the “advantage” of being left handed.  The Cubs are going to be overly right handed again in 2010, so they’d like to have Fontenot’s left-handed bat on the bench.  Forget for the moment that Fontenot isn’t much of a hitter.  He’s left-handed and sometimes, that’s all that matters.

I’m a big “team chemistry” guy, and keeping Millar around would likely be good for team chemistry.  At least that’s the general consensus.  But I’m also a big “let’s win some games” kind of guy and I’m not sure that losing the services of Andres Blanco in favor of Kevin Millar would be a good thing from a win-loss standpoint.  In my opinion, it’s more important for the Cubs to be successful on the field than it is for them to be fun and well-liked. 

It’s still very early in Spring Training.  A lot can change.  Giving Fontenot an opportunity to play some shortstop in Spring Training is much different than giving him a regular season job.  Who knows, the “Fontenot experiement” may be over this week.  But until it is, I will remain a bit nervous.  I remember what happened the last time the Cubs decided to become more left handed, and it wasn’t pretty.  I’d just as soon not see that mistake repeated.

I’m normally a glass is half full kind of guy.  If you look through the “glass-is-half-full” prism, you can see a talented Cubs team that just needs to get back to career averages in order to compete for the playoffs.  In 2009, the Cubs received sub-par performances from Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Mike Fontenot.  All three should have comeback years.

Soriano may never be the 40-40 guy he once was, but there’s no reason to think he can’t be a productive hitter again.  If you look at his career stats, 2009 was his worst year.  I think it’s much more likely that he had a down year (along with an injury) than it is that he simply lost the ability to hit.

What is a career average for Soto?  He had a very good rookie campaign in 2008 and a very bad year in 2009.  But like Soriano, his bad year in 2009 was accompanied by an injury.  Most people think the 2008 Soto is the real Soto.  If he can get back to his 2008 form, all is good.  If he can’t, the Cubs may be in the market for a catcher come 2011.

Fontenot probably won’t be as bad this year as he was last season, but the fact remains that he is not a legitimate MLB-quality second baseman.  If the Cubs use him off the bench, he can probably contribute to the team.  If they use him as a starter, even if he gets back to his career averages, he’s still not going to be good enough.

Milton Bradley also underperformed last year, but he’s gone, replaced by Marlon Byrd.  What can we expect from Byrd?  If he continues putting up the numbers he put up over the past three years in Texas, the Cubs should be fine. 

Even with all of the underperforming, injuries, and distractions, the Cubs still somehow managed to win 83 games in 2009.  Things should be better in 2010, right?  I mean, the Cardinals still have the great hitting, but will their pitching be as good?  I don’t think so.  The Reds are better, but still not very good.  The Brewers still don’t have much pitching.  The Astros didn’t do anything to help themselves in the off season, and the Pirates are, well, still just the Pirates.  Winning the NL Central should be a possibility for a Cubs team that should be better in 2010 than they were in 2009.

On the other hand, there’s an argument to be made that the Cubs are not contenders for the NL Central.  With the Cardinals having Holliday and Pujols for the whole year, and with the Cards two best pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, back in 2010, St. Louis is the clear favorite to win the NL Central.  To compete, or so the agrument goes, the Cubs will have to win 90 games in 2010 and they just don’t have a team that can do that.

Sure, Soriano may rebound, but he’s still a defensive liability.  Soto’s had one good year and there’s no reason to believe he can repeat that performance.  Fontenot, even at his best, won’t be much help.  And there’s good reason to believe he won’t be at his best.  What about Marlon Byrd?  Many people feel he is nothing more than a 4th outfielder posing as a starting CF.  The Cubs may not be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009.  That means 2010 could be a disaster.

In addition to the offensive woes predicted by the naysayers, they point out that the Cubs starting rotation will not be as good in 2010 as it was in 2009.  Carlos Zambrano may have a comeback year, but even that may mean just 15-16 wins.  Ryan Dempster will likely regress and Ted Lilly isn’t even going to be around at the beginning of the year.  Rich Harden is gone and it’s probably unrealistic to expect Randy Wells to have another year like he had last year.  And with Harden gone and Lilly out to start the year, the Cubs are going to have to rely on guys like Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Marshall.   If they don’t perform better than expected, the Cubs are sunk.

So which is it?  Will the Cubs be better in 2010 than they were in 2009, or will they be the same or worse?  There are legitimate arguments on all sides of the issue. 

I’m concerned about the Cubs starting rotation.  Zambrano should be fine.  As much as I like Dempster, I can never really trust him.  I keep expecting him to blow up.  Will he blow up in 2010? 

Losing Lilly for the first month or two is going to hurt no matter what kind of happy face you put on it.  Will Randy Wells prove to be a one-hit wonder or is he legit?  Your guess is as good as mine.  And what about Silva, Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia?  In order for the Cubs to be successful, some or all of these guys are going to have to perform much better than expected.  That gives me an uneasy feeling.

On offense, I expect Soriano to make a comeback, Soto to do just so-so, and Fontenot to play below the level of a league average second baseman.  Even if Jeff Baker gets the start at second base, I don’t think he offense will be much better than Fontenot’s.  Byrd may have a decent year, but I don’t think he’ll be the run-producing number five hitter the Cubs want him to be.

All of this adds up to the Cubs being slightly better than they were in 2010, but probably still not good enough to unseat the Cardinals at the top of the division.  Some pundits are picking the Reds to finish second in the division.  I don’t see it, but who knows.  Stranger things have happened.

So, did I ever make a decision?  Are the Cubs going to be better, the same, or worse than they were in 2009?  I expect them to play better in 2010 than they did in 2009, but not by much.  The Cubs will continue to trot out a team that is worse than their payroll would indicate.  Until the Cubs can put together a team that features a middle infield that is at least league-average, they are going to continue to struggle.  I had hoped they would address that deficiency this off season, but instead, they held fast. 

Until things change, I don’t expect things to change.  Not much.

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Closer
• What Can You Get For $140 Million? Starting Pitchers

My theory going into this series of posts was that by virtue of having the third highest payroll in all of baseball, the Cubs should have one of the best players at almost every position.   Of those players, two-to-four should be perennial all-stars.

I recognize that having one of the best players in baseball at almost every position is expensive.  That’s why I think a high payroll team still needs to have one or two young, inexpensive players.  However, those players should not just be roster filler.  They may be young and inexpensive, but they should also be extremely good.  An example of such a player would be Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox.  David Wright of the Mets was also this type of player a few years ago.  Geovany Soto may be such a player today, although the jury is still out.

To determine if the Cubs roster meets this criteria, in each post I ranked the Cubs players against the starters from each of the five other highest payroll teams.  Then, I considered whether or not the Cubs player was among the top players at their position.  Here’s how the Cubs players ranked against the players at the same position for the other five highest payroll teams:

• First Base — Derrek Lee (5 out of 6)
• Second Base — Mike Fontenot (6 out of 6)
• Shortstop — Ryan Theriot (4 out of 6)
• Third Base — Aramis Ramirez (3 out of 6)
• Catcher — Geovany Soto (2 out of 6)
• Left Field — Alfonso Soriano (3 out of 6)
• Center Field — Kosuke Fukudome (4 out of 6)
• Right Field — Milton Bradley (4 out of 6)
• Closer — Kevin Gregg (5 out of 6)
• Starting Pitchers — Carlos Zambrano (5 out of 30)

                                    Ted Lilly (12 out of 30)
                                    Rich Harden (13 out of 30)
                                    Ryan Dempster (17 out of 30)                                            
                                    Randy Wells (18 out of 30)

Kind of confusing, isn’t it?  I know.  One of the main reasons is because my hypothesis was wrong.  I thought that comparing the Cubs’ roster to the rosters of the five other highest payroll teams would work because I incorrectly assumed that the other five highest payroll teams would have some of the best players in baseball at each position.  Having looked at every position from each of these teams, it’s obvious that these other five teams do not have one of the top players at each position.  Each of these teams is built differently, but none of the teams has been able to build a starting line-up made up of some of the best players at each position, not even the Yankees.

Although my hypothesis was wrong, I’m not ready to give up on my belief that the third highest spending team in baseball should have some of the top players in the game on their roster.   So, do the Cubs have some of the best players in the game on their roster?

Our research showed that two Cubs, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, were among the best at their position in all of baseball.  Alfonso Soriano was close when he was signed, although he has fallen off recently.  Soriano gets a bad rap from people who are quick to forget what a terrific hitter he was earlier in his career.  If he can regain some of his previous hitting ability, Soriano can still be a top left fielder.

Geovany Soto is a tough call.  Was the 2008 version of Soto the real deal, or was the 2009 version the one we’ll see in the future?  Either way, I can’t fault the Cubs for handing him the starting job in 2008.  He was one of those young, inexpensive players I talked about previously.  It remains to be seen which Soto shows up in 2010.

The Cubs pitching staff also qualifies as among the best in baseball.  The real weakness is that 1) the Cubs don’t have a true ace, and 2) the pitching staff as currently constituted will not be as good in 2010 as it was in 2009.  The loss of Rich Harden and Ted Lilly’s inability to pitch for the first month or more of 2010 will take its toll on the Cubs.

What about the other positions?  Starting Fukudome and Bradley in center and right field respectively was uninspired.  Acquiring Bradley was a clear mistake that forced Fukudome to move from right field, where he was good, to center field, where he wasn’t so good.  Neither player qualifies as one of the best at their position, making the Cubs outfield one of the weakest among contending teams.

Ryan Theriot straddles the line between mediocre and poor among shortstops.  He combines the ability to be nothing special on defense with a below average OPS+.  The Cubs need a top shortstop and Theriot doesn’t qualify.

Mike Fontenot is among the worst second basemen in baseball.  He is not the type of player a club with a $140 million payroll should have in their starting lineup.  Even so, as of this writing, the Cubs appear ready to give Fontenot another shot in 2010, unless Jeff Baker, a more versatile but equally as bad second baseman, can unseat him.

Finally, the Cubs had one of the weaker closers in baseball as their closer in 2009.  There really was nothing in Kevin Gregg’s history that indicated that he could be a top-notch closer.  However, he was relatively inexpensive, so Jim Hendry signed him and hoped for the best. 

As I conducted my analysis, I kept coming back to this last statement.  Jim Hendry has a history of signing players and hoping for the best.  He signed Milton Bradley to be a middle-of-the-order run producer, even though Bradley had never shown the ability to fill that role before.  That fact, and Bradley’s past behavior should have given Hendry pause.  But instead, Hendry signed Bradley and hoped for the best.

He signed Gregg and hoped for the best, despite the fact that there really was no evidence in his past history that indicated that Gregg could be a reliable closer.  It should have been clear that Gregg was not the type of closer a contending team would want on their roster, yet Hendry took the leap of faith.

Finally, there was nothing in Mike Fontenot’s background that should have indicated to anyone that he could be a successful everyday second baseman on a contending team, yet Jim Hendry handed him the job and kept his fingers crossed.  The unnecessary risk back fired badly and he’s done nothing this off season to correct the problem.

The Cubs have not done a good job of spending their money.  They have the third highest payroll in baseball, yet they have a roster that is more reminiscent of a middle-of-the-pack team.   And it’s Jim Hendry’s job to make sure this doesn’t happen.

I’ve been a big supporter of Hendry’s over the years.  However, after taking an in-depth look at the roster, I can’t help but come to the conclusion that he has not done a good job of building this team.  A change in perspective is needed, and I don’t think that change can take place by keeping the same people in their current positions.

The Cubs needed a change in culture a few years ago.  They needed to stop thinking of themselves as small spenders.  They are a large market team with one of the highest revenue sources in the game, and they needed to start acting like one.  That happened under the direction of John McDonough and Jim Hendry.  The Cubs also rebuilt their farm system under the direction of Jim Hendry.

Now, another change is needed.  The Cubs need to view themselves as players for most every big name free agent.  They need to be viewed as a likely destination for top players when they are put on the trading block.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Hendry is the man for the job.  Although he has shown a capacity to trade for players that are being dumped by their current team, he has not shown much ability or willingness to trade his own players or top prospects. 

The Curtis Granderson situation earlier this off season was a good example.  Despite his shortcomings, Granderson is considered one of the top center fielders in baseball.  He would have been a perfect fit for the Cubs.  Even so, Hendry was unwilling to get too deeply involved.  Detroit wanted top prospects in exchange for Granderson.  The Yankees were willing to deal their prospects in exchange for a proven commodity.  Hendry refused to include the Cubs top prospects in any sort of deal.  As he has done in the past, he has deemed some unproven, but highly regarded prospects as untouchable.  This approach cost the Cubs a difference maker in center field and all they have to hang their hats on is the potential of some of their young players.

The botton line to all of this is that the Cubs need to get better.  The need to spend their money to build a perennial contender.  They need to change the way they build their roster.  As much as I like and respect Jim Hendry, I’m not convinced that he’s the guy to make the shift in approach and get the job done.

• What Can You Get For $140 Million?
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base

Today, I want to look at second basemen.  Even as I get started, I’m pretty sure I know what I’m going to find.  Second base was a really weak position for the Cubs in 2009.  In fact, as of this writing, it still is. 

Remember, my hypotheses is that with the third highest payroll in all of baseball, the Cubs should have one of the top players at every position.  My feeling going in is that they failed at second base.

To begin with, let’s meet the players.  here are the second basemen we’ll be focusing on:

• Robinson Cano (Yankees)
• Luis Castillo (Mets)
• Mike Fontenot (Cubs)
• Placido Polanco (Tigers)
• Chase Utley (Phillies)
• Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)

Next, let’s see how these six second basemen rank based on 2009 salaries:

1. Chase Utley ($11 million)
2. Robinson Cano ($6 million)
3. Luis Castillo ($6 million)
4. Placido Polanco ($4.6 million)
5. Dustin Pedroia ($1 million)
6. Mike Fontenot ($430,000)

Regardless of whatever else we find out, we can see from the salaries that the Cubs are not overspending at second base.  Are they being smart with their money or just foolishly cheap?  Let’s see what we can find.

Let’s take a look at how each second basemen did based on 2008 WAR:

1. Chase Utley (WAR 8.1)
2. Dustin Pedroia (WAR 6.7)
3. Mike Fontenot (WAR 3.1)
4. Placido Polanco (WAR 3.0)
5. Luis Castillo (WAR 0.6)
6. Robinsion Cano (WAR 0.5)

As you’d expect, Chase Utley led the field.  He had a big 2008 and helped lead the Phillies to a World Series victory over Tampa Bay.

After winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2007, Pedroia came back strong in 2008.  He led the AL in hits (213), was second in the league in batting average, and 11th in OBP.  Seeing Pedroia near the top of the 2008 WAR rankings is not a surprise.

What is a bit of a surprise is seeing Fontenot third on the list.  He had a terrific 2008 and it gave the Cubs hope that 2009 would bring more of the same.

By the way, the reason I like to look at 2008 stats is because it gives me a feel for what a player was doing the year prior to the year I am really interested in.  With that in mind, let’s look at 2008 OPS+ numbers:

1. Chase Utley (OPS+135)
2. Mike Fontenot (OPS+ 130)
3. Dustin Perdoia (OPS+ 122)
4. Placido Polanco (OPS+ 101)
5. Robinson Cano (OPS+ 86)
6. Luis Castillo (OPS+ 77)

Wow, look at our boy Fontenot.  He makes a very impressive showing in OPS+ for 2008.  Is it any wonder the Cubs thought they had found their second baseman?

But here’s the thing.  Fontenot was not playing full-time in 2008.  He was a bench guy.  Mark DeRosa was the Cubs second baseman in 2008.  Fontenot saw a lot of action, but generally speaking, he wasn’t a starter.  Did the Cubs have just cause to think that he would fare as well if he became the team’s starting second baseman in 2009?  In my opinion, no, they didn’t have sufficient reason to think Fontenot would be a successful starting second baseman.

Fontenot had a decent, but not overwhelming minor league career.  In his time with the big club, he didn’t really show the ability to hit consistently until 2008.  The Cubs apparently thought 2008 was his break out year.  However, many fans felt 2008 was a fluke, not something Fontenot could sustain.  Who was right?  Let’s see.

Here are the 2009 WAR rankings for our second basemen:

1. Chase Utley (WAR 7.6)
2. Dustin Pedroia (WAR 5.2)
3. Robinson Cano (WAR 4.4)
4. Placido Polanco (WAR 3.1)
5. Luis Castillo (WAR 1.6)
6. Mike Fontenot (WAR 0.4)

Utley and Pedroia again led the group.  Fontenot did not fare well at all.  How did they look based on 2009 OPS+?

1. Chase Utley (OPS+ 136)
2. Robinson Cano (OPS+ 129)
3. Dustin Pedroia (OPS+ 110)
4. Luis Castillo (OPS+ 98)
5. Placido Polanco (OPS+ 88)
6. Mike Fontenot (OPS+ 72)

Ouch, Fontenot was really bad in 2009.  Actually, I think we all saw how bad he was in 2009.  The stats just sort of drive the point home about how bad he really was.

To answer my previous question, the fans were right.  The Cubs had no reason to believe that Mike Fontenot was a viable second baseman.  In the very least, they had no reason to believe he was a viasble second baseman on the third highest spending team in all of baseball.  Starting Mike Fontenot at second base in 2009 was nothing more than wishful thinking by the Cubs. 

Here’s how I rank the six second basemen we’ve been looking at:

1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
3. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
4. Placido Polanco (Tigers)
5. Luis Castillo (Mets)
6. Mike Fontenot (Cubs)

As I stated previously, with the third highest payroll in the major leagues, it would be expected that the Cubs should have one of the top players at each position.  If not top three, then top five.  Even top 10.  Unfortunately, Fontenot’s 2009 performance at second base doesn’t even put him in the top 10 among MLB second basemen.  It’s a travesty that the Cubs would spend the kind of money they spent and trot out a second baseman the caliber of Mike Fontenot.

Perhaps the even bigger travesty is what the Cubs are preparing to do in 2010.  At the moment, it appears Fontenot will be competing for the second base job with Jeff Baker.  Baker is another bench jockey who had a fairly impressive season in 2009 (as a back-up) and is on the verge of becoming the starting second baseman for a big money ball club. 

Do the Cubs honestly believe that they can trot anyone out to second base and it will all work out?  Baker doesn’t have any more in his background to make the team feel he will be a success at second base than Fontenot had at this time last year.  And yet, Jim Hendry and the Cubs’ brain trust are willing to give the wheel of fortune another spin in 2010.  It’s a big risk.  One that the third biggest spending team in baseball should not have to take.

Bottom Line:  The Cubs failed miserably at second base in 2009.  This wasn’t just a case of a good second baseman having a down year.  The Cubs handed the second base job to an unproven player and they set him and the team up to fail.  They had no reason to believe that Mike Fontenot could be a succeesful starter at second.  Even so, they threw him out there and prayed that it would work.  It didn’t.

A team with a $140 million payroll should not have to take these risks.  The fact that the Cubs took the gamble in 2009 and appear to be prepared to take it again in 2010 is a reflection on the front office.  If Jim Hendry and crew can’t properly spend $140 million, then owner Tom Ricketts should find someone who can.

So now that we’re beginning our descent of Off Season Mountain, what can we expect from the Cubs in the weeks ahead?

The Cubs are in a tough position.  They presumably have very little money to spend, but they still have at least three holes to fill.  Some would say the Cubs have “needs” rather than “holes.”  I’m not sure which is technically correct.  The point is that the Cubs have viable options in-house to address their needs, but they would be better off looking elsewhere for help.

One such position is second base.  In-house, the Cubs have Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, neither of whom should be a starting second baseman on a legitimately contending team.  The Cubs have the fourth highest payroll in MLB (based on 2009 figures), but have one of the weakest second basemen in all of baseball.  That’s just not right.

Another option at second for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot.  If he moves to second, the Cubs will need to find a stand-in  for a year at SS until prospect Starlin Castro is ready (the Cubs wouldn’t bring Castro up at the beginning of 2010, would they?)  One in-house option at SS is Andres Blanco.  He’s a slick fielding SS, but a weak hitter.  The up-the-middle defense would be good, but the offense would be even weaker than it was last year when Fontenot was starting at second.

If there’s any money available, the Cubs could improve the team by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year deal.  Of course, I’m sure that Hudson would like a multi-year deal for $4-$5 million per year (he made $3.38 million plus bonuses last year), but considering the current state of the free agent market, that’s unlikely.

Another guy to consider is the guy that sent Hudson to the bench last year in Los Angeles: Ronnie Belliard.  He’s another guy who is seemingly being shunned in free agency.  He made $1.9 million last year and probably won’t command much, if any, more this year.

The idea is to find a second baseman who can be had on a cheap ($1-$3 million) one-year deal, but who will also make the team better.  Either Hudson or Belliard are better options than what the Cubs currently have in-house.

If the Cubs decide to look to the free agent market for a SS, there are only two guys they should consider, but the odds are that neither one will meet the criteria of being cheap and willing to take a one year deal.  The two shortstops, Orlando Cabrera and Miguel Tejada, would both be upgrades, but likely out of the Cubs league.

Another position that needs attention is starting pitching.  The Cubs enter the season with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells as the only pitchers certain to be in the starting rotation.  Ted Lilly will start the year on the DL, so Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia will battle it out for the other two spots in the starting rotation.  No matter who emerges from that group, it doesn’t make the starting rotation very strong.

Rumors have been circulating that the Cubs are interested in adding Ben Sheets.  I’m all for signing Sheets, but I heard initially that he was seeking a contract for $12 million/year.  More recently, I’ve read that his demand is more in the $7-$9 million range.

I like Ben Sheets and when he is healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he’s coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of baseball for the entire 2009 season.  That’s not the kind of guy you want to spend a lot of money on or who you want to give a multi-year contract.

If Sheets’ price comes down to $3-$4 million for one year, I can see the Cubs getting involved (along with a host of other teams).  But at his current asking price, he’s not only out of the Cubs range, but also a bad risk.

Finally, the Cubs could use another bullpen arm.  In my opinion, this is the one need that the Cubs could probably fill in-house.  They have a depth of decent bullpen arms.  Even so, this appears to be the position where Jim Hendry is focusing his efforts.  Rumor has it that he is targeting the Blue Jays Jason Frasor.  I don’t know what the Cubs would have to give up to get Frasor, but I really have to question the wisdom of adding an arbitration-eligible bullpen pitcher who made $1.45 million last year when the team has other needs.

Honestly, I don’t expect any big moves out of the Cubs the remainder of the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs went into Spring Training without making any moves.  I hope that doesn’t happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

**********

Are the Cubs moving their Spring Training home to Florida?  I still think it’s a long-shot, but the Naples effort got a boost recently when the Collier County Hotel and Lodging Association voted unanimously to approve use of the County’s tourist tax to build a new stadium for the Cubs.

The move was important not only because it cleared the way to use proceeds from the tourist tax to help fund building the Cubs a new training complex, but also because it showed the Cubs that the hoteliers are completely on board with the proposal to bring the Cubs to Naples.  Cubs President Crane Kenney made it clear that the Cubs only want to go where they are wanted.  So the unanimous vote to use proceeds from the tourist tax was an important step forward for the Naples effort.

A few weeks ago, the Cubs announced that they had eliminated a proposed Spring Training site on the Gila River Indian Community in  Arizona.  That leaves Mesa, AZ and Naples as the only two remaining possibilities.

Dear Santa:

Please disregard my previous letter.  The problem I told you about has been taken care of, so I’d like to revise my wish list for this Christmas.

As I admitted in my previous letter, I have not been a good boy this year.  I traded Mark DeRosa (one of our most popular players), let Kerry Wood go (I still think I was right about that one), signed Kevin Gregg, and worst of all, I gave a big contract to Milton Bradley.  I’m ashamed and I’ve taken responsibility for my mistakes (But really, who could have predicted how Bradley would act?).

I also want to add that I didn’t handle the Rich Harden situation very well either.  The whole arbitration process is very confusing.

I promise that I will be a good boy this year and ask you to grant my Christmas wishes based on my promise.  It’s sort of like a front-loaded contract, something I don’t know a whole lot about.

This Christmas, I would like the following:

• A center fielder who doesn’t cost an arm and a leg.  Marlon Byrd isn’t really the best you can do, is he?
• A right-handed back of the bullpen arm.  I meant to write to you about Matt Capps, but now it’s too late.  Would Kiko Calero or Kelvim Escobar be out of the question?  Is there any chance that Huston Street could somehow fall into our laps?
• We need a lead-off hitter with some speed and a middle-of-the-order run producer, but where are we going to put them both?  Some people say we need a different second baseman, but I think Mike Fontenot deserves a second chance, don’t you?  If not, I’d like a second baseman who can fill one of the holes in our batting order.  I know I’ve asked before, but is Brian Roberts available?
• I know I ask for this every year, but can I have a good starting pitcher?  If you could make Carlos Silva good again, that would be great, but  if not, could I get someone else.  I don’t want to mention Jake Peavy again this year, but…oh, never mind.  Any good starting pitcher will do.
• Finally, I know you get this request a lot, but this year, could you please bring me the Cubs and their fans a World Series Championship.  If you do it this year, I promise I’ll stop asking.

Thank you, Santa.

Merry Christmas,

 Jim (Lil’ Jimmy) Hendry

Even though his slash line took a hit in 2009, Granderson hit a career high 30 homeruns, all the more impressive since it was done while playing in Detroit’s spacious ball yard.  Granderson appears to be a “buy low” opportunity.  His trade value is down from a year or two ago, but his potential remains high.

Chicago newspaper columnists are almost giddy with excitement over the potential of the Cubs trading for Granderson. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times was more subdued when he said ” given the ideal fit provided by the Chicago-area native (i.e. Granderson), conversations between the teams appear inevitable.”  Phil Rogers of the Tribune and ChicagoBreakingSports.com was much more excited.  The headline of his article, Cubs Must Go After Granderson, gives you an idea of where he stands on the subject.

Rogers praises Granderson’s on-field play and off-field involvement in the community.  He calls Detroit “crazy” for thinking about trading him, and then becomes almost apoplectic when he says “The Cubs should do absolutely everything to get him, if he is available. There’s no debate about this.”

Rogers then starts the trade talks by offering up Carlos Marmol and Starlin Castro.  I’m not very high on Marmol as a closer, but at the moment, he is the only one the Cubs have.  Also, I’m not ready to annoint Castro the second coming of Derek Jeter or Ozzie Smith, but he does appear the heir to the throne at shortstop.  Is this really the price that the Cubs want to pay for Granderson?

Thankfully, Phil Rogers’ trade offers do not obligate the Cubs in any way.  It is true that Granderson would be a good fit for the Cubs in center field.  I’m not sure where he would fit in the line up.  His numbers seem to be better suited for the middle-of-the-order than leadoff, but that’s an arguement for another day.  For now, let’s focus on what price the Cubs would have to pay to acquire Granderson.

First, let’s look at money.  Granderson is signed through 2012 and is owed a total of $23.75 million.  His contract also has a club option for 2013 for $13 million with a $2 million buyout.  All tolled, Granderson is guaranteed to make $25.75 million over the next four years.  He’s not cheap, but his contract is not outrageous either.

Next, who would the Cubs have to give up to get Granderson?  Rogers’ offer of Marmol and Castro is too high.  I wouldn’t make Castro untouchable, but for this deal, I’d take him off the table.  I’d be willing to trade Marmol, but only if the Cubs have a really good idea of who is going to replace him.  As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think the Cubs should go into 2010 counting on Marmol to be their closer, but at the moment, he’s the only one they have.

Other names could include Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauir, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot, and Aaron Miles (if they’ll take him).  A few of these guys are non-tender candidates, but they still have value.  Sean Marshall is another valuable trade chip.  He deserves a shot as a starter somewhere, but it appears that he’s not going to get that shot with the Cubs again this year.

The Cubs minor leagues have some interesting trade candidates.  Darwin Barney is one guy who is proving himself in the minors, but who will likely not have a place to play when he’s ready for the big leagues in a year or two.  J.R. Mathes led the Iowa Cubs in wins last year, but doesn’t appear to have a future on the big league staff.  Rather than let him rot in Iowa (no offense to the Great State of Iowa), why not use him as trade bait.

These are just a few options.  I don’t know what the Tigers would want in return for Granderson other than salary relief.  The Cubs have some valuable players they can send Detroit’s way.  The important thing now is to keep Phil Rogers away from the negotiations.

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Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago said in a radio interview that the Cubs will announce a Milton Bradley trade in the next 3-4 days.  He mentioned the Rangers, Rays, Mets and Tigers as possible trade partners for the Cubs.  

The Rangers are starting to not make sense to me if Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated is correct that the Rangers would only be willing to pay $5 million of the $21 million owed to Bradley over the next two years.  The Rays also do not make sense.  If the Cubs send Bradley to Tampa Bay for Pat Burrell, they will have to turn around and trade him, likely picking up a portion of his contract.

The Mets don’t make sense on a couple of levels.  First, although they would like to move Luis Castillo and his remaining two years and $12 million contract, they have already said that they are not interested in Bradley.  Also, New York isn’t exactly the quiet, laid-back small market Bradley needs.   The Cubs may have interest in Castillo, but a third team would probably have to get involved for a deal to work.

The Tigers could be interesting on several fronts.  First, I’ve already talked about Curtis Granderson.  The Cubs could use him, but there’s no way that the Tigers trade him straight up to the Cubs for Bradley.  Might the throw in Dontrelle Willis?  He has been largely ineffective for the Tigers and he is owed $12 million in 2010.  Jim Hendry likes his reclamation projects, but D-Train is awfully expensive.  Even so, I would rather pay Willis $12 million to play for the Cubs next year than I would to pay Texas $16 million over two years for Bradley not to play for the Cubs.

The Tigers also have some interest in trading Magglio Ordonez.  He is owed $18 million in 2010 and he has a vesting option for 2011 for $15 million.  The 2011 option vests if he starts 135 games or gets 540 plate appearances in 2010, or he gets 270 starts or 1080 plate appearances between 2009 and 2010.

Ordonez can still be a dangerous hitter, but he’s becoming more of a DH than an everyday position player.  In 2009, he played right field in 104 of the 131 games in which he played.  That number will likely go down in 2010.  Plus, the Cubs would really like to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  Adding Ordonez wouldn’t allow that.

I don’t know where Milton Bradley is going to end up or who the Cubs might get for him, but it will sure be nice not talking about him anymore.  It will also be nice being able to move on with the off season.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

In the field, the Cubs would prefer to add a center fielder and move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  If that center fielder is a middle-of-the-order run producer, all the better.  The team will also be looking for a second baseman, unless they can find a good shortstop, which will force Ryan Theriot over to second base.

The starting pitching staff is pretty well set, but the bullpen is a bit in flux.  Will John Grabow re-sign?  More importantly, do the Cubs want to enter the 2010 season with Carlos Marmol as their closer?

Over the next few days, I’ll take a look at the team and give my thoughts on what the Cubs brain trust should do this offseason to get ready for 2010.  Today, I’ll start with the infield.

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First Base — There’s little doubt who will play first base next year.  Derrek Lee will be entering the final year of his contract in 2010 and there’s no reason to believe he’s going anywhere.  However, the question of who is going to back him up is a good one.  Lee has missed playing time over the past couple of years with a pinched nerve in his neck.  If the problem flares up again, who will play first base?

Within the organization, Micah Hoffpauir is the first guy that comes to mind.  Jake Fox is another.  Both guys are considered “offense-first” type of players, but I think both showed this past year that they can do a credible, if unspectacular, job in the field.  Although Fox is generally considered the more potent offensive threat, they put up very similar number in 2009.  Hoffpauir bats left-handed, which may carry more weight in the decision than it should.  Fox is more versatile in the field.

Another option is for the Cubs to sign a fairly low dollar free agent who could back up at first base and be a dependable bat off the bench.  Someone on the back side of their career that can accept a backup role and can be an additional veteran presence.  Someone in the mold of Tony Clark or Kevin Millar comes to mind.  The knock against bringing in someone like Clark or Millar is they probably won’t put up any better numbers than Hoffpauir or Fox, but they will probably cost more.  That’s a good point.  So unless you feel that the veteran presence is that important, stick with Hoffpauir or Fox and save your money.

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Second Base — We found out in 2009 that Mike Fontenot is not the answer to the second base question.  The Cubs also have Aaron Miles, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco on the roster and all three can play second base.  Even so, I don’t think any of them is the answer the Cubs are looking for at second.

In my opinion, Aaron Miles does not have a role to play on the 2010 Cubs.  He needs to be traded or released.  I know that releasing him will cost some money, but keeping him on the team will waste a valuable roster spot.  If you can trade him, great, but be willing to release him if you have to.

I envision Jeff Baker playing the role of a poor man’s Mark DeRosa.  He impressed in his time with the Cubs last year and I can see him coming back in an expanded role.  I don’t foresee him as the everyday second baseman, but rather as a super sub.  He can play several positions and do a credible job at all of them.

Andres Blanco is an interesting player.  He’s known for his awesome defense, but what people don’t know is that his offense has improved since joining the Cubs.  My understanding is that Blanco battled injuries during the early part of his career and did not get the at-bats he so desperately needed.  Now that he is healthy, his offense is improving and is becoming a much larger part of his game.

Although it would not be my first choice, I could see a middle infield made up of Theriot and Blanco.  I’d prefer Blanco at short and Theriot at second, but the other way around could work as well.  In my opinion, the Cubs should only consider this if they can’t find a more suitable solution via free agency or a trade.

Some possible free agent targets the Cubs might consider are Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson and Akinori Iwamura.  I’m almost certain that Figgins will be too expensive (four or five years at $10 million/year?).  Also, he’s somewhat of a hot commodity at the moment, so there will be considerable competition for him.

Hudson is a little more realistic, but considering that he was beaten out of his starting job with the Dodgers by Ronnie Belliard, the bloom is a bit off this rose.  Even so, Hudson put up respectable numbers in 2009 (.283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI) and might be a good fit for the Cubs.  He’s neither the speed demon nor the middle-of-the-order run producer they want, but he’d likely do a better job than the in-house candidates.

Iwamura is an interesting possibility.  He’s currently with the Rays and they have an option on him for next year that will cost them $4.25 million.  The Ray are likely to opt for the buyout ($250,000) rather than pick up his option.  They have other less expense possibilities at second base, so Iwamura will likely be a free agent.

In 2009, Iwamura had a hitting line of .290/.355/.390 in 69 games.  Again, he’s not a speed demon or a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he could still be a nice addition to a Cubs team that had trouble getting on base this past year.

A couple of other free agent possibilities include Mark DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez.  I like both of these guys, but I don’t think either one makes sense.  DeRosa is going to be 35 years old and he’s coming off of wrist surgery.  He was once an integral part of the Cubs, but that ship has sailed. 

Sanchez is an interesting possibility.  San Francisco has a club option on Sanchez for $8 million with a $600,000 buyout.  Opinion has been that the Giants will opt for the buyout, but would like to sign him for less money.  Sanchez will be 32 in 2010 and will be coming off knee surgery.  He’s expected to be 100% healthy by Spring Training.

I like Sanchez and he interests me if the price is right.  Problem is, I don’t think the price will be right.

Another interesting free agent name is Placido Polanco, who will be 34 next season.  Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBI for Detroit in 2009.  He’s a career .303/.348/.414 hitter, but at least initially, the market seems to be soft for him.  He made $4.6 million last year.  If he is willing to take a pay cut, he’ll be in the Cubs financial ball park.  If not, he’ll be playing for someone else next year.

Potential trade targets include Kelly Johnson (Atlanta) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore).  Roberts would obviously cost the Cubs much more that Johnson.  In fact, the only way Roberts could conceivably end up with the Cubs is if he is part of a package involving Milton Bradley.  I’ve pushed the idea of a Milton Bradley and others package for Roberts and Luke Scott.  I don’t know if either Jim Hendry or Orioles GM Andy MacPhail have jumped on that bandwagon yet, but I’ll keep beating the drum.

Johnson doesn’t seem to bring anything to the table that Baker or Blanco couldn’t provide.  He’s the type of player that Hendry has shown an interest in in the past, but I don’t think he makes sense for the Cubs.

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Shortstop — Unless the Cubs make some sort of unexpected move, Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop in 2010.  Let’s face it, despite the call for an all-star caliber shortstop by many fans, Theriot has done a more than credible job during his tenure.  In 2009, he hit .284/.383/.369 with 7 homeruns and 54 RBI.  And he only made $500,000.  What a bargain.

Blaco is another guy that could conceivable take over short and push Theriot over to second.  Eventually, I think Starlin Castro will do this anyway, so maybe it’s a good idea to get Theriot started at second now. 

Although I don’t expect the Cubs to bring in a shortstop via trade or free agency, there are a couple of names out there to consider.  I don’t foresee the Cubs getting in on Marco Scutaro, but there is a small chance they could take a flyer on Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada.  The reason I think these two guys may be on the Cubs radar is because I expect both to still be available at the end of the offseason for a relatively bargain price (ala Bobby Abreau last year).  It wouldn’t bother me to get a veteran shortstop for a year to hold the position for Starlin Castro in 2011.  However, I don’t expect it to happen.

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Third Base — With any luck, Aramis Ramirez will return healthy next year and will stay healthy all year.  He missed two months in 2009 with a shoulder separation and trying to fill his place in the lineup and in the field proved to be ctwo hallenges the Cubs were not up for.  So who will be Ramirez’ backup in 2010?

Jake Fox is one internal possibility.  He’s not going to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he did a better job there than many expected.  With some additional work, he might even be credible.

Jeff Baker is another guy that can fill in for Ramirez.  In fact, I never did quite understand why the Cubs didn’t give Baker more playing time at third in 2009 while Ramirez was injured.  As the team’s super sub, I would call on him to fill in at third when needed.  As such, I don’t foresee and moves to bring in a backup for Ramirez.

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Catcher — Who is the real Geovany Soto?  Did we see the real Soto in 2008 when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors and hit .285/.364/.504 with 26 homeruns and 62 RBI or was his .218/.321/381 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 2009 the real Soto?  I wish I knew.  I think the Cubs feel the same way.

Soto’s performance in 2008 was a pleasant surprise.  His minor league numbers didn’t lead people to think he would hit as well in a full-time MLB role as he did.  Now, after his performance in 2009, people are asking whether or not 2008 was just a fluke.

I have little doubt that the Cubs will enter the 2010 season with Soto as their starting catcher.  However, I’m not convinced that they will stick with him for very long if he struggles at the plate the way he did in 2009.

The Cubs will not look to replace Soto via trade or free agency, but they may look into bringing back free agent catcher Henry Blanco to act as a mentor to Soto.  There is some thought that Soto struggled in 2009 without the same influence that Blanco provided in 2008.  Blanco will be 38 years old, so the Cubs should not expect too much out of him, but if he can play the role of mentor to Soto and give him a day off every once in a while, bringing Blanco back on a one-year deal may be a good investment.

Having said all of this, I think it is fair to ask, what about Koyie Hill?  Hill was a capable fill in for Soto while he was on the DL and during his offensive struggles.  He deserves to be brought back.  Unfortunately, things don’t always work out the way they should.  Since Hill is out of minor league options, he may be moved as part of a trade.

It would not bother me to see Hill brought back next year, but the more important issue is putting Soto in a situation where he can  succeed.  If bringing Henry Blanco back improves Soto’s chances of repeating 2008, by all means, bring Blanco back and trade Hill.

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That’s it for the infield.  Next, I’ll look at what needs to be done with the outfield.

Gene Wojciechowski of ESPN.com wrote an article back in August giving Ricketts a list of things not to do with the Cubs.  It’s an old article, but still has some good thoughts.  Before providing the list, Wojo said:

“This isn’t just any team you’re purchasing. This is the Cubs, a franchise with enough heartbreak and history that it needs its own traveling psychotherapist. What it doesn’t need is an owner who thinks of the Cubs as simply an investment, another expensive car to park in the portfolio garage. It needs someone who has business and baseball sense. (Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t a bad ownership template.) It needs someone who cares if the W flag flies — and not just because it might mean a full house the next day.”

The list Wojchiechowski put together includes:

• Don’t fire Jim Hendry
• Don’t let Crane Kenney be Crane Kenney
• Don’t sit in the front row seats next to the dugout
• Don’t touch the big three (red Wrigley Field marquee sign, center field scoreboard, ivy)
• Don’t continue the faux-tradition of inviting guests to sing the seventh inning stretch
• Don’t forget Greg Maddux
• Don’t wait on Piniella to decide  if he is coming back next year (Done)
• Don’t ditch the Triangle Building
• Don’t retire Sammy Sosa’s number
• Don’t be afraid to eat some salary
• Don’t be afraid to trade Carlos Zambrano
• Don’t be an imitator (of the Boston Red Sox Fenway Rehab)

There are three things on Wojo’s list of 14 “Don’ts” that pertain to Wrigley Field or the area surrounding Wrigley.  That’s interesting.  What other team (other than the Red Sox) would have as much concern about the stadium where the team plays it’s games.  The Texas Rangers are on the market now.  Do you think anyone is concerned about what is going to happen to Arlington Stadium (okay, technically Rangers Ballpark at Arlington) when the new owners take over the team?  Of course not.  But Wrigley Field is special and people treat it like Stonehenge or the Acropolis.

Wrigley Field is special.  It’s a beautiful ballpark.  It’s also a terrible place to go watch a baseball game.  If you’ve ever driving to the ballpark you know what I mean when I say it is nearly impossible to find a place to park that isn’t several blocks/miles away.  And I don’t know anyone who thinks that the urinal troughs in the mens room are a nostalgic reminder of a better time.  They’re disgusting.

I have to admit, I enjoyed going to Wrigley as a young man.  It was fun; an adventure.  When I was old enough to drink, the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley was like heaven.  There’s a bar on every corner and a few in between. 

But as an adult with a family, Wrigley Field is not a pleasant place to go.  It is hard to get to, it’s dirty, outdated, and it takes forever to leave (i.e. not close to the highway).  We’ve been to other stadiums that are easy to get to/easy to leave, have plenty of parking, are cleaner and more modern, and where the seats are more comfortable.  After being at these other stadiums, its hard to go back to Wrigley and enjoy the experience.

Of course, it’s true that the things I’m complaining about haven’t kept the fans away.  The Cubs are among the leaders in attendance among MLB teams every year.  But from a business perspective, that doesn’t mean that Wrigley Field is generating the profits it could.  For instance, there are not enough luxury boxes.  Corporations are big time clients for all baseball teams and the Cubs are unable to accomodate the demand for luxury suites.

Also, like a stately old home, Wrigley Field is a money pit.  Upkeep is expensive and the needed remodeling threatens to break the bank.

Finally, there’s no room to expand.  The Cubs desperately need bigger locker rooms and office space, but they are confined in a well established neighborhood.  The Cubs have proposed building the Triangle Building next to Wrigley Field, but neighbors are protesting because of the height of the building.  In fact, the neighbors complain about everything the team wants to do.  Whenever the Cubs want to make a change, they have to enter into negotiations with the city and their neighbors in Wrigleyville.  It’s a pain.

In many ways, I love Wrigley Field.  It’s a landmark, a baseball museum.  Unfortunately, it is no longer a great place to play MLB games.  Off the top of my head, I don’t know what the best alternative is, but I don’t think that Tom Ricketts should be so consumed with saving Wrigley at all costs that he refuses to consider other options.

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What do you think of a Milton Bradley for Vernon Wells trade?  Not much?  Me either, but Joel Koch at BleacherReport.com thinks it’s the Cubs best option.

The entire trade, as proposed by Koch, would send Bradley and Mike Fontenot to Toronto for Wells, RHP Jeremy Accardo, and OF Jose Bautista.  I talked about a potential trade scenario with Toronto previously, but I had Roy Halladay coming to the Cubs in order to make up for the huge and unexplainable contract of Vernon Wells.

It’s my opinion, Toronto would jump at the trade proposal that Joel Koch has layed out.  They’d be nuts not to.  But the Cubs would be nuts to seriously consider it.  Taking on Wells massive contract without getting something valuable to make up for it (no offense to Accardo and Bautista) doesn’t make any sense for the Cubs.  They may need to eat some of Bradley’s contract to move him, but trading a bad contract for potentially the worst contract in baseball history isn’t a good idea.