To catch up on this series of posts (including the intial post where I explain my methodology), visit these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million?
• What Can You Get For $140 million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop

The thing that got me started on this quest is the very distinct feeling I have that, while the Cubs are spending with the big boys, they are not building a team that can compete with the big boys.  In a nutshell, my belief is that with the third highest payroll in Major League Baseball, the Cubs should be able to sign, trade for, or otherwise acquire the top players in the game.  They should be able to build a roster of several all-star caliber players, along with a couple of players that are 1) exceptional at their position, and 2) younger, so they are not yet expensive. 

Today, I’d like to look at third base.  The players I will be analyzing are:

• Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
• David Wright (Mets)
• Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
• Brandon Inge (Tigers)
• Pedro Feliz (Phillies)
• Mike Lowell (Boston)

Before we get started with our analysis, let’s take a look at the salaries for each of the six third basemen:

1. Alex Rodriguez ($32 million)
2. Aramis Ramirez ($15.65 million)
3. Mike Lowell ($12 million)
4. David Wright ($7.5 million)
5. Brandon Inge ($6.3 million)
6. Pedro Feliz ($5 million)

As the highest paid player in baseball, Alex Rodriguez’ salary dwarfs not only every other third baseman’s salary, but every other MLB player.  The good news for Rodriguez is that he’ll make another $32 million in 2010 before his salary starts to decline as part of his front-loaded contract.

I’d like to start my analysis by looking at the stats from 2008.  It will give us an idea of what these players were doing the year before 2009, the year we will be analyzing.  It can also give us some idea of why the player was in he position they were in going into 2009.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at the 2008 WAR scores for each third basemen.

1. David Wright (WAR 7.4)
2. Alex Rodriguez (WAR 6.0)
3. Aramis Ramirez (WAR 4.7)
4. Mike Lowell (WAR 3.2)
5. Pedro Feliz (WAR 1.5)
6. Brandon Inge (WAR 1.2)

Alex Rodriguez had a terrific year in 2008, leading the AL in SLG and finishing third in homeruns.  But his great year was overshadowed (at least in WAR) by David Wright.  Wright had the highest WAR of any player on any of the six highest payroll team.

Aramis Ramirez also had a very good year in 2008 finishing with a WAR of 4.7.  It was his sixth year out of eight full seasons with the Cubs that his WAR was above 4.0.

Here’s how the third basemen ranked in 2008 based on OPS+:

1. Alex Rodriguez (OPS+ 150)
2. David Wright (OPS+ 141)
3. Aramis Ramirez (OPS+ 126)
4. Mike Lowell (OPS+ 103)
5. Pedro Feliz (OPS+ 81)
6. Brandon Inge (OPS+ 76)

Of the players we’re reviewing, only Mark Teixeira had a higher OPS+ (152) than Alex Rodriguez in 2008.  Again, Ramirez finished third with a respectable OPS+ of 126.

Moving into 2009, let’s see how the players stack up based on WAR:

1. Alex Rodriguez (WAR 4.4)
2. David Wright (WAR 3.4)
3. Brandon Inge (WAR 2.5)
4. Aramis Ramirez (WAR 2.5)
5. Pedro Feliz (WAR 1.3)
6. Mike Lowell (WAR 1.2)

2009 was a strange year for the third basemen in our survey.  Rodriguez, Wright, Ramirez, and Lowell all spent time on the DL.  Since WAR values playing every day, this hurt their WAR scores.  Even so, Rodriguez and Wright led our group, and Ramirez was tied for third.

One quick note before we move on.  My intention was to examine the opening day rosters for each of the six teams in our survey.  However, Alex Rodriguez began the 2009 season on the DL following hip surgery.  Cody Ransom was actually the opening day third basemen for the Yankees in 2009.  Even so, there can be no doubt that the Yankees fully intended to have Rodriguez starting at third base.  As soon as he was healthy enough to return from the DL, Rodriguez immediately took over at third.  It only makes sense to include his stats for the purposes of our analysis.

How did the third basemen fare ranking them based on 2009 OPS+?  Let’s have a look:

1. Alex Rodriguez (OPS+ 147)
2. Aramis Ramirez (OPS+ 130)
3. David Wright (OPS+ 123)
4. Mike Lowell (OPS+ 106)
5. Brandon Inge (OPS+ 86)
6. Pedro Feliz (OPS+ 81)

Although Ramirez missed time on the DL, he had a terrific year when he returned.  He finished the year hitting .317/.389/.516 with 15 homeruns and 65 RBI. 

Now that we have an idea how well each of the players did over the past couple of years, let’s rank them:

1. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees)
2. David Wright (Mets)
3. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)
4. Mike Lowell (Red Sox)
5. Brandon Inge (Tigers)
6. Pedro Feliz (Phillies)

Rodriguez is far and away the best third baseman in the group and the best in the game.  In fact, he is clearly one of the best players in all of baseball.  I do think that Wright is a better third baseman than Ramirez, but not by much.  Wright has a higher career OPS+ and he is four years younger than Ramirez. 

The skill level drops off significantly after Ramirez.  Lowell is a guy I have always liked and appreciated, but he is no longer the ball player he once was.  Injuries and age have taken their toll and he is no longer one of the elite third basemen in the league.

So, Aramis Ramirez is one of the top third basemen out of the six we’ve looked at, but is he one of the top third basemen in all of Major League Baseball?  In trying to answer this question, we have to consider names like Pablo Sandoval, Michael Young, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Evan Longoria.  Arguments can be made that one or more of these players are better than Ramirez.  However, there can be little doubt that Ramirez is in the mix when you consider the top five or ten third basemen in baseball.

Bottom Line:  My belief is that with the third highest payroll in baseball, the Cubs should employ some of the top players in the game.  At least at third base, it appears that they have one of the games’ top players.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that Ramirez’ contract has a clause that allows him to opt out of the contract after the 2010 season. 

If he has another good year, there’s a good chance Ramirez will opt out and pursue a longer multi-year contract.  My guess is that Jim Hendry (or who ever is the Cubs GM at the time) will renegotiate a longer term multi-year contract with Ramirez.  Unless someone like David Wright or Evan Longoria is available, the Cubs should do whatever they need to do to keep Ramirez on the roster.