If Marmol is the heir-apparent to the closers role in 2010, he’d better show a little more than he did yesterday.  Two walks, two hits, and two runs against an offensively challenged team like Cincinnati isn’t going to get the job done.

On a brighter note, Geovany Soto and Aramis Ramirez both had multi-hit games.  Soto had two doubles and drove in three of the Cubs five runs.

Ted Lilly (11-8) will go for the Cubs today in the series finale against Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (5-4).

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The Cubs have one of the top rotations in the NL.  Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are all under contract for 2010.  Rich Harden is the only Cubs starter who will be a free agent at the end of the 2009 season.  Should the Cubs resign him?

Jason Stark from ESPN.com looked at the upcoming class of free agent pitchers and concluded that the class is mighty weak.  Here’s what he has to say about Rich Harden:

“If we were making out this list based on stuff alone, Harden might rank No. 1. He has a better strikeout rate (10.88 per 9 IP) than Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, or any other starter in baseball with 130 innings or more this year. It’s just tough to know what to make of him. If he makes six more starts, it would be only the second time in his career (and first since 2004) that he’s gone to the post 30 times. He’s visited his friendly neighborhood disabled list five years in a row. And he’s never won more than 11 games in any season. “I’d be scared to death to commit years to this guy,” one AL execs said. “He’s been used kind of like Pedro [Martinez] was used in the past, where they’re always trying to build in an extra day’s rest. And he’s just a five-inning guy, in the National League. He might strike out 10, but he’ll only go five innings, so he still kills your ‘pen. He’ll get some money. I just don’t see anybody giving him more than a year.’”

There’s no doubt that Harden has good stuff.  as Stark points out, it might be the best stuff in the game.  But there’s more to pitching than just having “good stuff.”  Harden has a difficult time staying off the DL.  The fact that the most wins he’s ever had in his career is 11 tells you that he doesn’t make nearly enough starts in a season.

I’d like to see the Cubs offer Harden arbitration.  He’s a reasonable risk on a one-year contract, but I wouldn’t risk a multi-year deal on him.  If he wants to turn down arbitration and go after that multi-year deal, more power to him.  Since he’s a type A free agent, the Cubs will receive two draft picks from whichever team signs him.

If the Cubs wanted to sign a free agent pitcher to replace Harden, my vote would go to Randy Wolf.  Here’s what Stark says about Wolf:

“Wolf’s stock has risen faster this year than IBM’s. He’d be 18-6 if the Dodgers’ bullpen hadn’t blown eight saves for him. He’s ripped off 14 straight starts of six innings or more. And only four pitchers in the whole sport can beat his 19 starts of no more than two earned runs allowed. So one season after the Astros pulled a three-year, $28.5 million offer off his table before he could say yes, it appears that Wolf’s turn has finally arrived to get a multiyear free-agent deal — although, since he’s 33, it almost certainly wouldn’t be longer than three years. He’s “durable, dependable and left-handed,” one GM said. And he’s also “two 190-plus-inning seasons removed from any health issues.” Oh, and he’s also driven in more runs this year (11) than Dewayne Wise or Cameron Maybin. So look for this man to stay in the National League — just so he can keep swinging the old Louisville Slugger.”

If the Cubs are going to hand out a multi-year contract to a starting pitcher, they can do worse than Randy Wolf.

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With 22 games left in the season, let’s take a look at how the teams in the NL Wildcard race did yesterday:

• Colorado lost to San Diego 3-2
• San Francisco lost to the Dodgers 9-1
• Florida beat Washington 11-3
• Atlanta beat St. Louis 7-6

The Cubs remain 8.5 games behind the Rockies, but are now all alone in fifth place in the NL wildcard race.

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As upset as I am about last night’s game, there are a few things we can learn from it:

• Jeff Samardzjia is not ready for the big leagues.  Maybe he will be some day, but he’s not ready now.
• Carlos Marmol can be a decent pitcher provided he only throws in non-pressure situations.  But when the game is on the line, or the score is close, or the opposition has any chance of winning the game, or people are watching, Marmol can’t throw strikes.
• Milton Bradley got his 30th RBI of the season last night on August 12.  That’s pathetic.
• Ryan Theriot went 3-for-5 last night, raising his season batting average to .300.  Color me surprised by this news.  I still think Theriot would make a good second baseman. 
• Sam Fuld got one at-bat and got a hit.  His is a good story.  Apparently ESPN.com think so too.  Here’s a piece they did about Fuld.
• Prior to pitching last night’s game, Pedro Martinez pitched in a AA game and he was pretty much average for a AA pitcher.  Last night, he held the Cubs in check.  What does that tell you about the Cubs offense?
• This team really needs a healthy Aramis Ramirez.

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The Cubs are currently 4.0 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and 4.0 games back of Colorado in the NL Wildcard race.  I don’t want to overstate the situation nor do I want to sound overly dramatic, but last night’s loss felt like the end of the Cubs chances for 2009.

I’ve followed the Cubs for a long time.  There have been some good years and a lot of bad years.  In the bad years, there always seemed to be a game or a series that was defining and let fans know that they should begin turning their attention to next year.  Last night’s game had that feel for me.

Baseball is a goofy game and some weird things can happen.  Granted, those things would have to be really goofy for the Cubs to get back into the playoff race, but as they say, stranger things have happened.

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John Smoltz cleared waivers, refused an assignment to the minors, and has declined an invitation to pitch out of the bullpen for Boston.  I had pushed the idea of the Cubs acquiring Smoltz, but that was with the idea of him working out of the bullpen.  Smoltz’ performance this year as a starter would indicate that his starting days are behind him.

John Smoltz has had a great career; a Hall of Fame career.  It would be a shame for him to end his career under the current circumstances.  For the sake of his legacy, and for the sake of his next contract (provided he decides to play past this year), I’d like to see Smoltz return to the NL and work out of the bullpen for a contender.

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I have to admit that I have been a little tough on JP Ricciardi recently.  I thought he mishandled his attempts to trade Roy Halladay and his recent salary dump of Alex Rios just further strengthened my belief that he is not particularly good at his job.  But my criticism was nothing compared to what Joe Posnanski had to say on his blog.

Yesterday, I commented on a blog post by Dave Kaplan in which Kaplan claimed that Carlos Zambrano is the most overpaid player in baseball.  Posnanski did Kaplan one better by listing the 11 worst contracts in baseball
(Zambrano’s is not among them, although he does comment on it).  In the process, Posnanski rips Ricciardi pointing out that Ricciardi’s fingerprints are all over some of the very worst contracts in the game.  

Posnanski’s article/blog post makes for a great read.  It also points out the absurdity of Kaplan’s claim.  As Posnanski illustrates, not only is Zambrano’s contract not one of the worst in baseball, it’s not even the worst on the Cubs.  Alfonso Soriano’s contract takes that honor.

But back to Ricciardi.  Posnanski admits that he just doesn’t understand anything about Ricciardi, yet he comes up with a way to honor the man.  In the future, Posnanski suggests, all bad baseball contracts should be referred to as Ricciardis.  A fitting tribute to the man who has perfected the art of handing out bad contracts to average or worse players.

Before I go, I have to quote my favorite line from Posnanski’s post.  It’s hilarious.

In talking about Vernon Wells contract, which Posnanski deems as the worst in all of baseball, he says this:

“Cot’s Baseball Contracts — the incredibly awesome site where I got these numbers from — is one of my favorite Internet stops. And on occasion, just for fun, I will go to the site just to look up Vernon Wells’ contract. I don’t know why. It gives me hope, somehow. It tells me that in this world, anything is possible. It tells me that good things happen, funny things, unexpected things. Don’t tell me that I won’t win the lottery … just look at Vernon Wells’ contract.

In 2011, Vernon Wells will get paid $23 million. No. Really. He will get paid $23 million.

In 2012, he will have to take a paycut and will only get $21 million. Same in 2013. And same again in 2014.”

And then he adds my favorite line from his piece;

“This isn’t a baseball contract. This is a testament to the power of mankind to do the impossible.”

Brilliant!

Rich Harden pitched 6.1 innings of perfect baseball before Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz conived a walk off the right hander.  At that point, the Cubs were up 2-0.  Two batters later, Harden gave up a two-run homer and his no-hitter to Jimmy Rollins, and the game was suddenly tied.

Overall, Harden pitched a really good game.  Over 7.0 innings, he gave up two hits, allowed two runs, struck out six and walked two.  But the Cubs offense, which compiled seven hits in seven innings, could only muster two runs, so Harden got a no-decision for his effort.

In the eighth inning, Carlos Marmol came into the game and couldn’t find the strike zone.  He walked the first batter he faced  got two outs, and the hit Shane Victorino with a pitch.  With runners on first and second and two outs, Marmol walked Chase Utley to load the bases for Ryan Howard.  Marmol then walked Howard to force a run home and give the Phillies the lead.

In the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs played some small ball.  Kosuke Fukudome walked and was bunted over to second before Milton Bradley singled him home to tie the game.

In the top of the 12, Kevin Gregg, who was pitching in his second inning, gave up a solo shot to Ben Francisco; the first guy he faced in the inning.  The Phillies then rubbed a little salt in the wound by bringing in former Cub Scott Eyre to close out his former teammates in the bottom half of the inning.

Overall, Cubs pitching only gave up three hits in 12.0 innings.  Unfortunately, they also gave up two homeruns, five base-on-balls, and a hit-by-pitch that ultimately doomed them. 

The series continues tonight as Pedro Martinez (0-0) takes on Jeff Samardzjia (1-1).  It will be the first start this year for both pitchers.

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Is it time to do something about Carlos Marmol?  He was a great story last year, but he’s a mess this year.  Marmol has walked 52 batter in 58 innings this year, and in August, he is averaging 14.73 walks per nine innings.   While he has the potential to be special, the reality is that his lack of control is killing the Cubs.  Marmol needs to be sent to Iowa (or Arizona) to work on his control.  The stakes are way too high for him to be doing what he’s doing at the major lreague level.

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Is Carlos Zambrano the most overpaid player in MLB?  Dave Kaplan thinks so.  Kaplan, the host of CSN’s Chigago Tribune Live! and WGN Radio’s Sports Central, had this to say on his blog:

“I am so sick of hearing that Carlos Zambrano is the “ace” of the Cubs staff and that he is considered one of the best starters in the baseball [sic]. That is such a pile of garbage and it is about time people start to call this guy what he really is, a fraud.

“Zambrano is not a big game pitcher, he is not an ace, and if the Cubs can, I believe they will look to move him and his bloated contract out of Chicago as soon as possible. What qualities does a #1 starter have? How about piling up wins? Zambrano has averaged 14 wins a season since he became a full time starter in 2003. Does he play the role of leader on the club? Don’t make me laugh. He is immature, doesn’t work as hard as the Cubs would like, and he is not what one would consider a big game pitcher. Many times Zambrano has had a chance to stop a losing streak or to win a big game and he has failed a majority of those times.”

That sounds horrible, but he was just getting started:

“The facts don’t lie. The Cubs are paying for top flight performance from a pitcher who has the skills to be a big winner. However, Zambrano’s performance does not warrant such a big contract and his 18 million dollar annual salary is one of the deals that is limiting financial flexibility for the front office. Talk to the scouts that attend every game the Cubs play and they all bemoan his incredible physical talents and lack of productivity for a guy whose reputation  is that of a superstar.

“Zambrano has won all of 7 games this season. That’s it. He has had incidents with a Gatorade machine, been suspended for his outburst towards a home plate umpire, and  has had two stints on the disabled list. Seven wins for 18 million dollars and enough headaches for management to drive them crazy.”

When Kaplan goes over the top, he goes WAY over the top.  Is Zambrano a “true” ace?  No, probably not.  He’s a good #2 or #3 starter, but truth be told, he’s probably not an ace.

Is Carlos Zambrano overpaid?  Yeah, I think that’s fair to say.  When it was signed, Zambrano’s contract seemed high, but not outrageous.  Considering his performance, I think it’s fair to say that he has not lived up to the level of performance that was anticipated when he signed the contract.  So yeah, I guess he’s overpaid.

Is Zambrano the most overpaid player in MLB?  No, not even close.  Guys like Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and Gary Matthews, Jr. come to mind for that honor.  Heck, Zambrano may not even be the most overpaid player on the Cubs.  Alfonso Soriano’s contract is almost certainly worse than Zambrano’s.

I think a lot of Cubs fans are frustrated with Zambrano.  As Kaplan points out, Z has been on the DL twice this year, he was suspended for bumping an umpire, and he threw a tantrum that fatally injured a Gatorade machine.  But when he’s on the field, he does his job fairly well.  He only has seven wins through the middle of August, but he has a respectable 3.35 ERA, the lowest it has been since 2005, and his K/9 rate is up from last year. 

Kaplan’s hissy fit seems to be much more about garnering attention for its author than it does about making a salient argument about Carlos Zambrano being overpaid.  I especially like the last paragraph of his article:

“It is time for the Cubs to find a taker for the antics and the talents of Carlos Zambrano. I know that he has a no trade clause but perhaps Zambrano would also like a fresh start in a new city. He may have a golden arm but we have seen far too many other “qualities” from the man they call “Big Z” to call him an ace or a reliable starter on a team with championship aspirations. Pack your bags Carlos, it’s time to take your act to another team. We’ve tired of you and your immaturity.”

Thanks, Dave, for speaking for all of us.  You could have said “You’re” tired of Carlos Zambrano and his immaturity, but instead, you drug us all into your ridiculus tirade.  In the future, if you’re going to say something so indefensible, please leave “us” out of it.

First, Carlos Zambrano was added to the DL with back spasm.  Next, Aramis Ramirez “tweaked” the shoulder that landed him on the DL earlier in the year and was sent back to Chicago for an MRI.  Then in last night’s game, newly acquired lefty Tom Gorzellany took a grounder off of his right foot that forced him out of the game. 

The news about Gorzellany is probably the best for the Cubs.  He had x-rays following the game and nothing was broken.  Dr. Lou Piniella pronounced him fit to get in his regular throwing in a couple of days and said he expects Gorzellany to make his next start.  We’ll see…

Zambrano had an MRI and it indicated that the bulging disc in the pitcher’s back is no worse now than it was in 2006.  He is expected to return around August 21.

That leaves Ramirez.  Without him earlier in the year, the Cubs went into a swoon and barely maintained a .500 winning pct.  When he came back, the team seemed to get a second win.  If he’s not able to continue to play, or if he plays at a reduced level – both very real possibilities – the Cubs are in big trouble.  He is the glue that holds the team together, and he is the only guy that can be counted on to hit when everyone else is in a slump.

A lot is made of the Mets injury woes, but the Cubs are not too far behind in that category.  Their ace has been on the shelf twice this year, Ramirez, their best hitter, has had a long stint on the DL and may be visiting it again, Geovany Soto spent several weeks rehabbing his shoulder, Ted Lilly had knee surgery while on the DL for shoulder soreness, plus a ton of other injuries both big and small.  Injuries have been a constant problem for the team this year and it doesn’t look like things are going to be getting better any time soon.

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The Cubs have not been good on the road this year.  They are 33-19 at home, but just 25-33 on the road.  So the silver lining of the recent 4-6 road trip is that it’s over and the Cubs get to come home for six games against the State of Pennsylvania (three games with the Phillies followed by three games with the Pirates).

Rookie of the Year candidate J.A. Happ (8-2) gets the start in game one for Philadelphia against the Cubs Rich Harden (7-7).  Wednesday should be interesting.  Newly acquired veteran righthander Pedro Martinez (0-0) gets the nod for Philly.  He’ll face Cubs rookie Jeff Samardzjia (1-1).  On Thursday, Philadelphia’s other new pitcher will take the mound as Cliff Lee (9-9 for Cleveland) will take on Ryan Dempster (6-5).

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We learned yesterday that the White Sox were indeed the team that made the waiver claim on Alex Rios.  According to Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Star, Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi tried to get something in return for Rios, but was quickly told that there would not be any players coming back in return for the outfielder.  Ricciardi did the right thing and just let the White Sox have Rios and his nearly $60 million contract.

I have to admit that I underestimated Ricciardi.  I fully expected him to insist on getting something for Rios, but he didn’t.  Considering the way he overplayed his hand in the pre-trade deadline Roy Halladay negotiations, I’m a little surprised that he relented on Rios.

Now the White Sox are stuck with one of the worst contracts in baseball.  It’s not that Rios is bad, he’s just significantly overpaid.  Plus, the White Sox already have a full outfield, so who is going to play where and when.  That’s the same question that White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye would like answered.  Dye has a mutual option in his contract for 2010 and the addition of Rios makes it less likely that the White Sox will exercise that option.

Even though the White Sox could jetison Dye, DH Jim Thome, and pitcher Jose Contreras when their contracts expire at the end of the year.  they are still going to be on the hook for a lot of money in 2010.  I’m afraid GM Kenny Williams has overreached on this one.  Adding Jake Peavy’s contract to the payroll in July was a good move, but adding Rios is going to come back to haunt the Southsiders.

The easy answer is that they need a new owner in place before July 31 who is willing to take on payroll.  That answer’s not much fun since it is highly unlikely that the Cubs new owner will be in place before the trade deadline.  So for the moment, let’s assume that Jim Hendry will be given permission to add Halladay to the roster if he can make a deal.  Otherwise, this will be a very short post.

According to reports, the Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers are the three most likely landing spots for Halladay if he is traded.  In my opinion, the Yankees are an extreme longshot since they play in the same division as Toronto.  I can’t imagine the J.P. Ricciardi would be willing to trade his ace inside the division. 

Another way to look at this is that the entire purpose of trading Halladay is to acquire prospects that can help the team win in the future (as well as budget relief).  So why would Toronto trade Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, to one of the teams they will be competing against in the division?  To me, it just doesn’t make sense.

However, Anthony Reber of Newsday.com has an idea that could potentially make sense to Toronto.  What if the Yankees were willing to take on the contracts of Halladay and CF Vernon Wells in exchange for 3-4 prospects?  Wells is owed $110 million over the next 4 1/2 years, a contract that Toronto would certainly like to jettison.  If the Blue Jays could rid themselves of two very big contracts, they would be able to redirect their payroll in ways that could make the team more competitive more quickly.

It’s an interesting argument.  With so much payroll flexibility and 3-4 of the Yankees top prospects, the Blue Jays could build a potential contender.  However, my argument holds.  I just don’t see Toronto trading Halladay in the AL East.

What about the Dodgers?  Any trade for Halladay would likely include Clayton Kershaw going to Toronto and Ned Colletti of the Dodgers has basically made him untouchable.  The Dodgers love their prospects and with one glaring exception, they normally shy away from commiting too much of the payroll to one player.  Halladay will cost them (or anyone else that trades for him) about $7 million for the rest of this season and $15.75 million in 2010.  With the exception of Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers don’t have anyone on their roster commanding that share of the payroll budget.  I consider the Dodgers to be a longshot to land Halladay.

That leaves Philadephia.  They just signed Pedro Martinez for the remainder of this year, but they insist his signing will not prevent them from pursuing other players.

Philadelphia has a definite interest and need for Halladay.  They also have the prospects that would be needed to make the trade; or at least they did until yesterday.  According to Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports, Jason Knapp, one of the Phillies top pitching prospects, went on the DL yesterday with shoulder fatigue.  That could throw a monkey wrench into the works.

In recent days, the Angels and Cardinals have emerged as potential trade candidates for Halladay.  Rosenthal dispels the possibility that the Angels could land Halladay.  Sure, they have interest, but they don’t have the trade chips necessary to make the deal.

The Cardinals also have interest and they have top prospect Brett Wallace who the Blue Jays once coveted.  To make the deal even more appealing, Halladay and Cards ace Chris Carpenter are close friends.  The one sticking point for the Cardinals is that they don’t have the MLB-ready starter that the Blue Jays say they want as part of any package.  The Cards already have to send a pitching prospect to Cleveland to complete the Mark DeRosa deal, so they’re currently a bit thin on pitching prospects.

That’s where the Cubs come in.  Not only would it be great to add Halladay to the rotation, but it would also be important to keep him out of St. Louis.

The Cubs have the MLB-ready pitching that Toronto wants.  Any deal could include Sean Marshall or Randy Wells.  A deal would also likely include the Cubs top prospect, 3B Josh Vitters.  I know Cubs fans would hate to see him go, but trading a prospect (someone with the potential to be good someday) for the best pitcher in baseball seems like a good move to me.  Plus, the Cubs don’t have the greatest track record when it comes to developing prospects.  Consider that before Vitters took the title, the Cubs top prospects were Felix Pie (2006-07), Brian Dopriak (2005), Angel Guzman (2004), Hee Seop Choi (2003), Mark Prior (2002), and Corey Patterson (1999-2001).

Adding Halladay will obviously cost the Cubs money and prospects, but he’s the type of pitcher that can instantly turn around or solidify a rotation.  And unlike CC Sabathia was last year for the Brewers, Halladay is just a few month rental.  He’ll be around for at least a year-and-as-half and the Cubs will have first shot at signing him to his next contract.  A rotation in 2010 of Halladay, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and either Marshall or Wells would be mighty nice.

As long as we’re dreaming, let’s dream big.  What if the Cubs were to pull the same type of stunt that Anthony Reber suggested the Yankees pull, namel trading for both Halladay and Vernon Wells.  The Cubs could send Marshall or Randy Wells to Toronto along with Vitters and Milton Bradley (one bad contract for another).  Sure, Vernon Wells is overpaid and signed through 2014, but he is a better CF than anyone the Cubs currently have, he’s hitting better than Bradley (even though he isn’t hitting that great), and he isn’t the distraction that Bradley is.  There’s a lot to like about this deal!

Okay, while this has been fun, let’s be honest.  The likelihood that the Cubs will be involved in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, let alone land him, is remote.  My best guess is that if Toronto trades Halladay, he’ll end up in Philadelphia.  Unfortunately, I think the Cardinals are next in line should Philadelphia falter.  That could hurt. 

Hendry has pulled off some impressive trades in the past.  Can he somehow, some way work something out for Halladay?  Doubtful, but you never know.

I’ll be the first to admit that the bullpen couldn’t hold the Astros in game two or three of the series.  In both games, the awesome Geoff Blum hit a walk off single to win the game, first against Angel Guzman on Wednesday night(to lose an eight inning, three hit performance by Zambrano) and then off Jose Ascanio on Thursday afternoon.  But come on, the pitching needs some margin for error.  The Cubs need to produce more than one or two runs per game if they expect to win.

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Milton Bradley went 2-11 in the Houston series and his batting line is now just  .215/.329/.369.  That’s not much production from a guy that was signed for three years at $10 million per.  I’m not ready to declare Bradley a bust yet, but I’m getting close.

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According to Nick Cafro at the Boston Globe, the Cubs (along with the Rays) have watched Pedro Martinez’ throwing sessions in the Dominican Republic.  Are the Cubs interested in signing Martinez?  No one’s talking, so it’s hard to tell.  Why would the Cubs need Martinez?  The already have excellent starting pitching.  What they need is someone who can hit. 

All true, but think of it this way.  If the Cubs sign Martinez and he can be a serviceable fifth starter, that will allow them to trade one of their current pitchers for some hitting.  But who would they trade?  My guess is that neither Z nor Ryan Dempster are going anywhere.  Ted Lilly is a possibility, but he has a no-trade clause.  Rich Harden is a possibility, but he’s been injured and other teams may not be willing to trade an impact player for him.  That leaves Randy Wells and Sean Marshall. 

The reason Wells and Marshall make sense is because other teams view them as long term options.  They are both young, no eligible for free agency yet, and it appears that for both of them, their best days are still to come.  Teams would be willing to give up a player who can help the Cubs today in exchange for either Wells or Marshall, while the same can probably not be said for the Cubs more veteran pitchers.

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The Cubs return home to the “friendly confines” to take on the Twins in interleague action this weekend.  Randy Wells (0-2) takes on Kevin Slowey (8-2) in an afternoon tilt to kick-off the series today (Friday).  Hopefully, some home cooking will wake up the Cubs’ bats.