Marlon Jerrard Byrd is 32-years old (DOB: 8/30/77).  He was born in Boynton Beach, FL, but he was raised primarily in Marietta, GA.  He attended Georgia Tech in Atlanta where he played baseball.  While at Georgia Tech, Byrd injured his right leg causing muscle damage and resulting nerve damage.  He had to undergo three operations to his leg before the damage was corrected. 

Because of the injury and surgeries, Byrd missed a lot of class time at Georgia Tech and ended up leaving school.  Once he was healed, he enrolled at Georgia Perimeter Junior College (now called simply Georgia Perimeter College) and focused his efforts on building a career in baseball.

In 1999, Byrd was the 10th round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Byrd did well in the minors, moving quickly through the Phillies minor league system.  The highlights of his minor league career include a tremendous year in 2001 in the Double-A Eastern League where he was named Rookie of the Year, the League’s Player of the Year, and he was a post-season All-Star while playing for the Reading Phillies.  In 2002, Byrd was named a post-season All-Star for the Triple-A Scranton Phillies of the International League. 

Byrd was considered a top prospect in the Phillies organization (getting as high as third in the organization) and he made his big league debut at the end of the 2002 season.  He only played in 10 games that year, getting 25 ABs and compiling a slash line of .229/.250/.371 with a homerun and an RBI.

In 2003 he became a starter for the Phillies and had a very good year.  In 135 games (495 ABs), Byrd put together a .303/.364/.418 hitting line with 7 homeruns and 45 RBI.  He came in 4th in Rookie of the Year voting (Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins won the ROY award).

The Phillies had big plans for Byrd after his rookie campaign, but like so many players, he suffered through a sophomore slump.  In 2004, he hit just .228/.287/.321 with five homeruns and 33 RBI in 346 ABs.  After playing just five games with Philadelphia in 2005, he was traded to the Washington Nationals for Endy Chavez.  The change of scenery didn’t help Byrd much.  He ended the year hitting a combined .266/.323/..376 with two homeruns and 26 RBI in 229 ABs.

Byrd’s career continued to slide downhill in 2006 with Washington.  He began the year in the majors, but by July 15 of that year, the Nationals had seen enough and they sent him back to Triple-A.  While with the Nationals in 2006, Byrd hit just .223/.317/.350 with five homeruns and 18 RBI in 197 ABs.

In 2007, the Texas Rangers took a shot on the struggling Byrd and signed him to a minor league contract.  He started the year in class-AAA, but was called up to the Rangers in May after both Brad Winkerson and Jerry Hairston, Jr. went down with injuries.  Byrd played well, getting 414 ABs and hitting .307/.355/.459 with 10 homeruns and 70 RBI.  In fact, the Rangers were so pleased with Byrd’s play that they traded starting CF Kenny Lofton to Cleveland and replaced him in the line-up with Byrd.

Byrd’s work with Rangers’ (now Cubs’) hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo continued to pay off in 2008.  Byrd hit .298/.380/.462 with 10 homeruns and 53 RBI in 122 ABs.  Through much of the season, Byrd suffered with a bad knee, forcing him to spend a little over a month on the DL.  He had off season microfracture surgery in October which included repair of a torn meniscus.

In many ways, 2009 was Byrd’s career year, although some will argue that he actually had a better year in 2008.  Regardless, 2009 was a very productive year for Byrd.  He hit .283/.329/.479 with 20 homeruns and 89 RBI (both career highs) in 547 ABs (also a career high).  Following the season, the Rangers offered Byrd salary arbitration, but he declined, preferring instead to test out the free agent market and seek a multi-year deal.

Byrd’s center field defense has always been considered good, but his UZR/150 rating indicates that he is the epitome of average in CF, scoring a 0.0 career rating.  He actually has above-average ratings in both right and left field.

Byrd isn’t much of a stolen base threat.  His career high is just 11, which he achieved in 2003 with the Phillies.  During his three years with the Rangers, Byrd stole a total of 20 bases.

From a money standpoint, I was surprised to learn that Byrd actually took a pay cut to play for the Cubs in 2010.  He earned $3.06 million in 2009 with the Rangers (plus $87,500 in bonuses for hitting AB targets) and would have almost certainly received a raise had he accepted arbitration.  He agreed to play for $3 million for the Cubs in 2010, but of course he’ll receive raises in both 2011 and 2012.     

On a more personal note, Byrd is married and has two children.  In high school, he was a two sport star (baseball and football) and he enjoys golf, tennis and weightlifting away from the ball park.

I think it’s fair to say that Byrd is not the player the Cubs coveted.  They started the off season looking for a run producing middle-of-the-order bat and/or a speedy lead-off hitter with a good OBP.  Byrd is neither of those guys, although he’s closer to the former than the latter at this stage of his career.  Even so, the pickings were pretty slim and the club signed Byrd to a reasonable contract, so all is not lost. 

Bill James has projected that Byrd will hit .279/.340/.438 with 14 homeruns and 64 RBI in 480 ABs in 2010.  I’m not sure how James does his projections, but I would think they would change with Byrd moving from Texas to the Cubs.  His projection must be impacted by who he plays with, who he hits behind and in front of, and where in the lineup he hits.  My guess is that Byrd will hit 5th or 6th in the lineup for the Cubs.  If he can just repeat the success he had in Texas, I think we’ll all be happy.

It stinks watching everyone else making deals while the Cubs sit on the sidelines.  The White Sox continued their off season shopping by trading a couple of prospects to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre.  The Dodgers were even good enough to throw in $10 million of the $18 million owed to Pierre over the next two years.

St. Louis made a five-year offer to Matt Holliday at a reported $16 – $18 million per year.  I think that’s crazy money, and in a way I hope Holliday accepts the offer because I think it will cripple the Cardinals financially for years to come, but it’s frustrating to see the Cubs division rival chasing one of the biggest free agents while the Cubs sit back and wait for something to happen.

For the Cubs, the story is the same as it was last week, and the week before that: they need to trade Milton Bradley before they can do anything else.  Actually, that’s not quite acurrate.  They have chosen to wait until Bradley is traded to make any moves. 

Quite honestly, I’m starting to blame Tom Ricketts for the Cubs hesitancy to do anything.  When Ricketts decided to hold the line on payroll (actually, I believe he allowed for a “slight” increase), he tied Jim Hendry’s hands from doing anything to improve the ball club. 

First, very few contracts came off the books at the end of 2009.  The only players to leave the Cubs because their contracts were up were Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, and Reed Johnson.  After losing those players, and then accounting for increases via arbitration, the Cubs payroll is in the neighborhood of $135 million (It’s hard to know exactly where it is because it’s unclear right now what the arbitration-eligible players will receive, as well as those that will be tendered contracts).  That doesn’t leave much money to make any moves if the magic payroll number is $140-$145 million.

Then there’s Milton Bradley.  It’s unclear how much the Cubs are going to have to spend to get rid of Bradley.  The Dodgers spent $10 million to move Pierre and the Red Sox are rumored to be willing to eat $9 million (of a $12 million contract) to move Mike Lowell (the trade with Texas is currently on hold).  Both of those guys are decent players who are considered good clubhouse guys.  So if their respective teams are/will pay so much money to trade them, how much will it cost the Cubs to move a malcontent like Bradley coming of a sub-par year?

Assuming it’s going to cost the Cubs $10 million just to move Bradley (and that may be conservative), wouldn’t the Cubs be better off exchanging another team’s bad contract for Bradley?  It may cost them more dollars in the long run, but they may actually get a valuable piece back in return.

In a previous post, I argued the case for a Bradley-for-Derek-Lowe trade with Atlanta.  The Braves are looking for a corner outfielder and they need to trim payroll.  Lowe is their biggest contract and most expendable player.  Over the next three years, he’s going to cost $45 million.  It would cost the Cubs $24 million more to trade for Lowe than they are scheduled to pay Bradley, and Lowe will be around a year longer (two more years for Bradley vs. three years for Lowe), but isn’t that better than handing someone $10 million or more just to take Bradley off the Cubs’ hands?  It seems like a win-win to me.

Granted, whoever takes Bradley (assuming someone actually does) is going to have to find a way to integrate him into their team and control (or at least contain) his behavior.  But in exchange for that, if the deal is with Atlanta, they’ll save $24 million dollars and clear the other $21 million owed to Bradley off their books a year sooner than they would with Derek Lowe.  I know Milton Bradley is a pain in the butt, but couldn’t the Braves learn to live with him for $24 million?

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With Curtis Granderson now a Yankee and Mike Cameron signed by Boston, the Cubs now turn their attention to Marlon Byrd, Rick Ankiel, Coco Crisp, and Reed Johnson.  Carrie Muskat of MLB.com says that Byrd is the Cubs’ first choice, but honestly, is he the best answer for center field? 

Granderson would have been a terrific “get” for the Cubs.  He’s a power hitting, middle-of-the-order bat that they need, and his clubhouse presence would be a breath of fresh air after a year of Milton Bradley.  Of course, that’s a moot point now.

Of the free agent center fielders, Mike Cameron was the class of the field.  He’s not the offensive presence that Granderson is, but he’s sufficient and he plays a good center field.  But again, he’s gone, so no use crying over spilled milk.

Unfortunately, the quality falls off quite a bit from Cameron to the trio of Byrd/Ankiel/Crisp.  But here’s the thing: while any of that group will cost several million dollars, the Cubs can probably get the same or better production from any combination of Sam Fuld, Reed Johnson and recently released Ryan Church (can he still play center?).  Johnny Gomes is another interesting name hanging out there.  He’d probably have to play right field, but Fukudome could move back over to center as part of a platoon/position swap.

At this point, I can’t tell you what the answer is, at least as far as putting a name(s) to the problem, but I can tell you what the answer isn’t, and that’s signing Byrd, Ankiel, or Crisp.  They’re all different types of players, but none of them are the answer the Cubs are looking for.  They are either too expensive, a 4th outfielder, too weak offensively, or a combination of these things.

Jim Hendry waited too long to make a move, but now that he’s waited this long, he might as well wait longer to see if there are any free agent deals or trades available later in the off season.  The current options just don’t get the job done.

Don’t get me wrong.  There’s was a lot of talking.  There were a lot of rumors.  Much of the day was taken up with posturing.  But as far as actual trades or signings go, nothing happened.

At some point around the middle of the day, I had a sudden moment of clarity.  As you’ll recall, the Cubs suspened Milton Bradley in September with just 15 games remaining in the season.  Jim Hendry said he couldn’t tolerate Bradley’s behavior any longer (especially Bradley blaming the fans for the Cubs not winning a World Series in more than 100 years), and he suspended him for the remainder of the season.  Of course, the Cubs continued to pay Bradley (a deal they worked out with the Player’s Union), so the discipline was much more symbolic than substantive.

The writers in Chicago had a heyday with the Bradley suspension.  They celebrated, they rejoiced, and Hendry played right into their hands.  He made it clear from the beginning that Bradley would have to be traded.  He poisoned the waters to the point where he had absolutely no leverage in any potential trade.  He branded Bradley as damaged goods, making him about as unappealing as he could to potential trade partners.

As the Winter Meetings approached, his tune changed a bit.  Hendry started to talk like Bradley might stay with the team.  The Cubs tried to build up Bradley’s value after spending most of the off season destroying his value.  But guess what?  Other teams weren’t falling for it.  They were well aware of the Cubs precarious position with Bradley and they were in no rush to come to the Cubs rescue.

Trade talks with both Tampa Bay and Texas included demands for the Cubs to send several million dollars along with Bradley in any trade.  It was expected that the Cubs would have to eat some of Bradley’s contract, but the $16 million that Texas supposedly demanded was not expected. 

As the Winter Meetings began, rumors started to spread about the Cubs discussing a Bradley trade with three or four teams.  On Tuesday, a mystery team entered the picture.  A deal with an unnamed AL team was “three-quarters” complete.  There appeared to be demand for Bradley.  His stock suddenly seemed to be rising.

Then, it the middle of the day on Wednesday, I had my moment of clarity.  There is no market for Bradley.  I don’t know why it wasn’t clearer to me previously.  I guess I bought into all of the hype and rumors. 

In an effort to trade Bradley, the Cubs spent their time creating rumors, spreading gossip and trying to create a market (or the perception of a market) for Bradley.  It didn’t work.  No one, except the media, bought it.  Teams didn’t come rushing in to try to snag Bradley for fifty cents on the dollar.  They stayed away in droves.  And as the Winter Meeting come to a close today, it appears that nothing has changed.  The Tampa Bay Rays appear to be the only legit potential trade partner for the Cubs, and only then, if the Cubs pay most of the third year of Bradley’s contract.

I hope I’m wrong.  I hope that Hendry used the meetings in Indy to set the groundwork for a trade that will be announced in a few days.  But I don’t think that’s the case.   At least for now, it appears that the only way the Cubs are going to get rid of Milton Bradley is to pay another team a lot of money to take him, or simply release him.  I don’t see either of those things happening.  So does that mean Bradley will be back in a Cubs uniform next year?  I can’t imagine, but what other alternative is there?

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Perhaps I’m overreacting on there being no apparent movement on the Bradley front.  At least the folks at Canada’s National Post Sports thinks so.  According to a tweet from NPS, “Cubs GM Jim Hendry has at least one firm offer for Milton Bradley, deal will happen Friday.”  NPS goes on to say that the deal is not with Toronto.

I don’t know the good people at NPS, but I’m guessing that this tweet was sent after one too many Labatts or Molsons.  I’ll be happy if it happens, but at this point, I’m not holding my breath.

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Rich Harden signed with the Texas Rangers — the same Rangers who don’t have any money — for one-year/$6.5 million.  The deal also includes $3.5 million in incentives.

Personally, I would have liked to have seen the Cubs re-sign Harden for next year.  The contract he signed with Texas seems reasonable, although the incentives seem a little high to me.  I guess it depends on what he has to do to earn them.

Of course, I go back to the fact thast the Cubs know more about Harden’s health than anyone, so maybe letting him go was the right thing to do.  We’ll see…

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The Red Sox have apparently traded third baseman Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers (the deal is awaiting MLB approval).  The Cubs had toyed with a Bradley for Lowell deal, although Boston did not apparently toy back.

Anyway, the reason I bring it up is that the Red Sox will be sending $9 million to Texas to complete the trade.  If the Red Sox are willing to pay $9 million to get rid of a player that by all accounts is a great guy, a clubhouse leader, and a productive hitter, what will the Cubs have to pay to move Bradley?

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Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times talks about all of the teams that do not have an interest in Bradley.  The Twins are one of the teams that don’t have an interest, at least in part, because in 1996 when the Twins were thinking about drafting Bradley, he said he didn’t want to go there because he thought they were racists.

But the one that really stuck out to me was the unnamed team that had an interest in Bradley until one of the team’s star players emailed the GM for assurances that he would not trade for Bradley.  That’s how much of a cancer this guy really is.

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The Cubs have already decided to move their Spring Training home to Naples, Florida.  That, according to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune.

According to Rogers, the only thing that matters is that Tom Ricketts wants his base of operations in Florida, not Arizona.  Rogers bemoans the fact that the Cubs will be throwing away a near fifty year relationship with Mesa and will be turning their backs on the throngs of Cubs fans that flock annually to Arizona for Spring Training. 

“But no matter how many justifications you hear about the Florida move — heavier air for pitchers, a short hop to the Dominican Republic and elsewhere in Latin America, etc. — the reason will be that Ricketts wanted his base of operations in Florida, not Arizona.

Oh, and the developers driving the Naples deal, the Chicago-based Esmark Inc. and the Florida-based Fifth Avenue Advisors, will be sure to add plenty of sweeteners to their offer, including some specifically targeted for the owners. I understand this isn’t criminal activity; it’s business.

But, please. Don’t sell a sweetheart land deal as progress for the Lovable Losers.”

Obviously, Rogers is not happy about the move.

Let’s face it, any decision the Cubs make on Spring Training is going to involve a “sweetheart land deal.”  It just the way these things work.  And as for progress, is staying in Mesa “progress?”  Is staying in Arizona “progress?”  Is there anywhere that the Cubs can move that will be considered “progress?”  No, it’s not about “progress,” however you define it.  It’s about what’s best for the Cubs organization, both from a training facility standpoint and a financial standpoint.

If the Cubs do move to Naples, there will be a lot of handwringing.  Rogers has already started the arguement that players will not want to play for the Cubs if they move to Florida.

“Personally, I wouldn’t mind the move. I have Marco Island connections. But I’m not a 28-year-old free agent with a .295 career batting average and six teams interested in signing me. If I was that guy, I’d be far more likely to have attachments to the Phoenix area than the southwest tip of Florida. Those things matter when you are recruiting players.”

I’m throwing the BS flag.  That’s a bunch of nonesense.  The Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies, as well as other teams that train in Florida don’t seem to have a problem getting players.  I don’t think the Cubs will either.

In an article by Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, Jim Hendry is quoted as saying Joshua didn’t do anything wrong.  He said Joshua was brought in from the minors to replace Gerald Perry in June and was told it was a temporary assignment.  Hendry also told Joshua at the time that he could have his old job back if things didn’t work out.

Later in the article, Derrek Lee is quoted as saying, “I hate to say it, but a hitting coach is overrated.”  He also said that neither Perry nor Joshua were to blame.  If a player doesn’t hit, it’s the player’s fault, not the hitting coach’s.

In addition to looking for a middle-of-the-order bat and a leadoff hitter in the offseason, Hendry will now also be looking for a hitting coach.  What promises to be a busy offseason just got a little busier.

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The season isn’t quite over yet.  Both the Tigers and Twins won yesterday, so they will play a one game playoff today at the Metrodome in Minnesota.  This is the second year in a row the Twins will be playing in a one game playoff.  They lost to the White Sox last year.

-edit- The one game playoff will be held on Tuesday (10/6), not Monday (10/5).

The other teams going to the post season in the AL will be the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox.  The Yankees will await the outcome of today’s game between the Twins and Tigers and will then host the winner.  The Angels will host the Wildcard winning Red Sox to start their best-of-five series.

In the NL, the Rockies will travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies beginnning Wednesday afternoon.  The Dodgers will host the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine beginning Wednesday night.

I’m picking the Yankees and Red Sox to survive in the AL, while the Phillies and Cardinals will play for the pennant in the NL.  All Division Series games will be broadcast on TBS

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Alex Rodriguez entered the sixth inning of yesterday’s game against the Rays needing seven RBI to hit 100 for the season.  Time was running out and it didn’t look like he would make it.  What happened next is a new AL record.

 Rodriguez came up with two on and belted a three run homer off Rays pitcher Wade Davis.  The homerun brought him closer to the century mark in RBIs, and Rodriguez thought he might get one more at-bat in the game.  But as the Yankees continued to batter Rays pitching, that at-bat came sooner than ARod thought it might. 

The Yankees half of the sixth inning continued and Rodriguez found himself in the on deck circle when the Rays intentionally walked Mark Teixeira to load the bases.  Rodriguez then delivered his second homerun of the inning, this one a grand slam, giving him seven RBIs in the inning and a new AL record.  His second homerun of the inning was also his 30th homerun of the season, giving him seven consecutive years of 30 or more homeruns.

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I’ve advocated for a salary cap in the past on these pages.  I’m less concerned with a cap controlling a team’s spending as I am in forcing teams like the Pirates and Marlins to spend a minimum amount.  As it is, these teams are spending less on player payroll than they receive in revenue sharing.

Another concern I have with the disparity in spending is that  lower spending teams have trouble competing.  Of course, those who disagree with me point to teams like the Twins who have been at least in the hunt for the plaoffs most of the past decade.  The Marlins are another example.  Not only have they made the playoffs, but they won the World Series, beating the high spending Yankees.

As I’ve said in the past, the low spending teams making the playoffs is the exception that proves the rule.  Murray Chass disagrees with me.  In a recent article, Chass makes the assertion that there is no problem with the system as is and that it should be left alone.  To prove his point, Chass offers the following:

These are the teams, according to their rank in the salary standings, that have made the playoffs the last 10 years. This year’s lineup includes the Tigers and the Rockies, who had not clinched their spots when this was posted. (number in parentheses is the number of teams in the top 8 that were in the playoffs):

• 2009 (6): 1-4-5-6-7-8-12-17
• 2008 (4): 2-5-6-7-9-10-15-28
• 2007 (5): 1-2-5-7-8-22-23-26
• 2006 (3): 1-5-6-12-14-17-19-21
• 2005 (4): 1-2-5-6-10-12-14-16
• 2004 (5): 1-2-3-7-8-11-12-19
• 2003 (3): 1-4-6-10-11-17-23-26
• 2002 (3): 1-4-7-10-13-16-27-28
• 2001 (4): 3-5-6-8-9-12-17-26
• 2000 (3): 1-3-5-12-15-18-25-27

Chass’ point is that in almost every year, there are lower payroll teams in the playoffs.  Here’s my point: In seven of the past ten years, at least four of the top eight highest payroll teams made the playoffs.  And in every one of those 10 years, four of the top twelve spending teams qualified for the post season.  So what you have is the top spending teams claiming four playoff spots every year and the remaining 18-22 teams fighting over the remaining four spots.

I’ll be the first to admit that spending a lot of money doesn’t guarantee a team a spot in the playoffs.  Just look at the 2009 version of the Cubs.  But when money is wisely spent, the team that spends the most usually wins.

One of my favorite things is the changing color of the leaves.  Nature’s art show is spectacular.  There’s nothing better than sitting outside on the back porch or down at the lake, enjoying a cool beverage, and taking in the fall colors.  Fall really is a great time of year.

And yet, the fall is a sad time of year for baseball fans.  Baseball’s regular season is coming to a close.  The playoffs are exciting, but they also represent the end to another great season.  And on this, the final day of the regular season, we are counting the time until Spring Training in months rather than weeks or days.

The Cubs won’t be participating in the postseason this year, which is a shame.   And yet, those on us who have been alive for the past two seasons (2007-2008) were treated to back-to-back postseason appearances.  No one under the age of 100 can say the same thing.  Let’s hope that we can see the Cubs back in the postseason soon.

As we head into the postseason, we know that the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox will continue playing.  The Tigers and Twins are tied in the AL Central, so depending on today’s results, we may have a one-game playoff tomorrow.

In the NL, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies, and Rockies will vy for the chance to represent the NL in the World Series.  It is an exciting time, but I’m going to miss following the Cubs.

Just four more months until Spring Training… 

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Phil Rogers of the Tribune has listed ten different players that could fill the “middle-of-the-order” bat that Lou Piniella said he wants.  Before he lists his candidates, Rogers has to first blast Jim Hendry for signing Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley to fill the void, both failing rather spectacularly.  I don’t have the best memory, but I don’t think anyone claimed that Fukudome was a “big bat” who would fit in the middle of the order.  However, Rogers point about Bradley is well taken.

There are a few names that intrigue me.  I could see Bobby Abreau or Rick Ankiel as possibile solutions.  But the guy that most intrigues me is Adam Dunn.

I have to admit, if you had asked me a couple of weeks ago about adding Adam Dunn to the Cubs, I would have been opposed to it.  But after going through the last two posts (Redefining Production Part 1 and Part 2), I have a new found respect for Dunn.  True, he’s not the most gifted fielder.  He also strikes out a lot.   But there are only a handful of players in the game that contribute more to their team scoring runs.  And as we established previously, the most important attribute in the game is scoring runs.

Rogers also lists Mark DeRosa as a possible bat to add to the Cubs 2010 lineup.  I really like Mark DeRosa and I was critical of Jim Hendry for trading him last offseason.  He’s a guy who leaves it all out on the field and is a great clubhouse guy.  In fact, he was one of the leaders of the Cubs playoff teams.  Even so, I’m afraid that ship has sailed.  DeRosa is going to be a free agent after this season.  He is also going to be 35-years old and is scheduled to have wrist surgery in the off season.  Not a good combination.  It pains me to say it, but I don’t think DeRosa is the solution to the Cubs’ needs.

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Check out these two clips from the Seattle Mariners radio network.  Mike Blowers makes an amazing prediction that actually comes true.

Enjoy!

Alfonso Soriano proved once again why he should be rested the remainder of the season.  He went 0-4 with three strike outs and five men left on base.  He also committed a three base error on a fly ball by AJ Pierzynski that resulted in a run for the White Sox.  Soriano claims that his knee is not bothering him, but I find that hard to believe.  He’s not helping the team ast all, so why not just rest him and let Sam Fuld get some work in left field?

The Cubs continue their quest for the NL Wildcard tonight as they take on the Mets in New York.  Carlos Zambrano (7-6) will try to get back on track after two really bad outings.  He’ll face Bobby Parnell (3-7) for the Mets.

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Here’s what the Wildcard teams did last night:

• Colorado           Lost to the Mets 8-3
  San Francisco    Lost to the Phillies 2-1 (1.0 GB)
  Atlanta              Lost to the Marlins 8-3 (4.0 GB)
  Florida               Beat the Braves 8-3 (4.0 GB)
  Cubs                 Lost to the White Sox 5-0 (6.0 GB)

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After breaking his wrist in 2006, Derrek Lee seemed to lose his homerun power.  In 2007 he hit 22 homeruns (after hitting 46 in 2005) and was down to 20 in 2008.  Through it all, Lee never let on that his wrist was the reason for his decrease in power.  According to Gordon Wittenmyer at the Chicago Sun-Times, Lee is now saying that there may have been a correlation between his wrist injury and his relative homerun drought.

This year with a healthy wrist, Lee has 27 homeruns and is on a pace to hit 33.  He’s also on pace to collect a career-high 111 RBI and he is leading the team with a .294 batting average.  The year did not start good for DLee, but he’s pulled it all together and has had a very good year.

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Speaking of DLee, he was out of the lineup yesterday so he could be with his wife who is expecting their second child.  Congratulations to the Lee Family!

You see, my relationship with the Cubs evolved over the years.  It started out innocently enough.  I was just a kid and they were my hometown team.  I learned the players names, memorized their numbers, and studied the statistics on the back of their baseball cards.  I was a fan and all I wanted was for the team to win.

As I grew older, my wish for a winning team became a little bit of an embarrassment.  It didn’t matter how many games I watched or how hard I wished for the victories, the Cubs just didn’t win.  They were pathetic and that seemed to reflect negatively on me.  I had become too personally involved and my happiness had become tied in to how well the Cubs were doing.  Unfortunately, they weren’t doing very well.

In college, I fell in with a group of guys, many of whom were Cardinals fans.  They were good guys, just horribly misguided.  Of course, when the Cardinals won the World Series in 1982, I had to ask myself, “who is the one that is really misguided?”  (My girlfriend at the time was also a Cardinals fan, so that didn’t help.) The 80′s were a difficult time for the Cubs (except 1984), just as the 70′s and 60′s had been.

Today, I am a full-fledged adult, complete with a wife, kids, and all of the assorted goodies that come along with growing up and getting older.  Unfortunately, I still have the personality glitch that I developed as a kid.  I’m still a Cubs fan and my personal happiness is still far too dependent on the trials and tribulations of the Cubs.  That’s why I’m an apologist.

You see, the Cubs have been a part of my life for a long time.  They’re almost like a member of the family who you stay in contact with, but who’s lifestyle you don’t like.  You love them, but you really wish they’d change.  And no matter what type of stupid, inappropriate thing they do, you just can’t seem to turn your back on them.  You give them the benefit of the doubt.  You’re sure that the next job or the next relationship is going to turn them around.  But when that doesn’t happen, your first inclination is to defend them, to justify their actions, to make excuses.  Such is the current state of my relationship with the Cubs.

But if I take a hard look, a really hard look, at the 2009 version of the Cubs and I allow myself to be objective, I know deep down that it isn’t injuries that have derailed their season.   Sure, the loss of Aramis Ramirez has hurt the team, but injuries happen to every team.  And the Cubs have the players that should be able to pick up the slack.  Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee should be able to carry a Ramirez-less team.  But they didn’t.  Instead, they folded at the very time the team needed them to step up.  Derrek Lee eventually came around, but it was too little too late.

You know, as long as I’m being objective, let me turn my attention to Jim Hendry.  Because if I’m going to be honest, I have to admit that this team is not well constructed.  For instance:

• Ryan Theriot is not an every day shortstop for a large market team.  Relying on him to be something other than what he is – a solid, if unspectacular player – was a mistake. 
• Mike Fontenot is not an everyday second baseman.  Thinking that he could replace the production, if not the leadership qualities, of Mark DeRosa was delusional.
• Signing Milton Bradley to a $10 million/year contract based strictly on his 2008 production, and turning a blind eye to his previous performance and behavioral issues was nothing short of wishful thinking.
• Abandoning center field to a platoon consisting of a) a guy who had a horrible 2008, and b) a guy that was released by the Toronto Blue Jays, simply because both guys were already on the team was completely wrongheaded.  You had a bunch of money to spend.  Couldn’t you get two good players for right and center field instead of just handing all of the money over to Milton Bradley?
• Shouldn’t a large market team that spends $140 million a year have some depth?  Of course they should.  Then how do you explain Aaron Miles?  Joey Gathright?  Ryan Freel?  Has there ever been a GM who spent so much money on such a shallow team?

I envy fair weather fans.  They don’t throw tirades about a team’s farm system.  They don’t spend their time going over box scores.  They don’t feel the need to purge their tortured soul because their team, the team that has disappointed them over and over again, just got swept.  They enjoy a normal life.  That must be nice. 

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I normally don’t pay a lot of attention when and for how much teams sign their draft picks.  But I have to admit to being a bit intrigued by the Stephen Strasburg saga.  From publish reports, it sounds like the Nationals have offered him $9.5 million and Strasburg and his agent, Scott Boras, are asking for $50 million.  The two sides have until Monday evening to get this worked out.

Strasburg is said to be the best pitcher to ever come out of college baseball.  By some accounts, he could be the ace of many MLB staffs right now, today.  But $50 million?  The most any team has ever paid a college player is $10.5 million.  The team?  The Cubs.  The player?  Mark Prior.  Ouch!

As Jayson Stark points out, Strasburg’s value will never be higher than it is right now.  Sure, he has the option of going back to college, or play independent ball, or going to Japan.  But what would he have to do at any of those stops to increase his value.  There really is nothing that can happen to make him worth more than he is right now.

Of course, the Nationals really could use someone like Strasborg, not just on the mound, but as a PR gesture to their embattled (or perhaps the better word is “ambivalent”) fans.  They lost out on #1 pick Aaron Crow last year.  a repeat of that scenario would just drive Nationals fans further underground.  The Nationals need Stephen Strasburg.

So will a deal get done?  Yeah, I think so.  Of course, I have nothing but my gut to back that up.  So as long as I’m just guessing, how much will Strasburg sign for?  I’m glad you asked.  It’s got to be for more than Prior signed for, right?  I’m guessing somewhere around $20 million.  To me, that seems like a figure the Nationals can live with, and it seems like a figure that Strasburg can’t turn down.  Of course, with Scott Boras involved, thinking about this logically is probably a waste of time.

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As upset as I am about last night’s game, there are a few things we can learn from it:

• Jeff Samardzjia is not ready for the big leagues.  Maybe he will be some day, but he’s not ready now.
• Carlos Marmol can be a decent pitcher provided he only throws in non-pressure situations.  But when the game is on the line, or the score is close, or the opposition has any chance of winning the game, or people are watching, Marmol can’t throw strikes.
• Milton Bradley got his 30th RBI of the season last night on August 12.  That’s pathetic.
• Ryan Theriot went 3-for-5 last night, raising his season batting average to .300.  Color me surprised by this news.  I still think Theriot would make a good second baseman. 
• Sam Fuld got one at-bat and got a hit.  His is a good story.  Apparently ESPN.com think so too.  Here’s a piece they did about Fuld.
• Prior to pitching last night’s game, Pedro Martinez pitched in a AA game and he was pretty much average for a AA pitcher.  Last night, he held the Cubs in check.  What does that tell you about the Cubs offense?
• This team really needs a healthy Aramis Ramirez.

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The Cubs are currently 4.0 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central and 4.0 games back of Colorado in the NL Wildcard race.  I don’t want to overstate the situation nor do I want to sound overly dramatic, but last night’s loss felt like the end of the Cubs chances for 2009.

I’ve followed the Cubs for a long time.  There have been some good years and a lot of bad years.  In the bad years, there always seemed to be a game or a series that was defining and let fans know that they should begin turning their attention to next year.  Last night’s game had that feel for me.

Baseball is a goofy game and some weird things can happen.  Granted, those things would have to be really goofy for the Cubs to get back into the playoff race, but as they say, stranger things have happened.

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John Smoltz cleared waivers, refused an assignment to the minors, and has declined an invitation to pitch out of the bullpen for Boston.  I had pushed the idea of the Cubs acquiring Smoltz, but that was with the idea of him working out of the bullpen.  Smoltz’ performance this year as a starter would indicate that his starting days are behind him.

John Smoltz has had a great career; a Hall of Fame career.  It would be a shame for him to end his career under the current circumstances.  For the sake of his legacy, and for the sake of his next contract (provided he decides to play past this year), I’d like to see Smoltz return to the NL and work out of the bullpen for a contender.

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I have to admit that I have been a little tough on JP Ricciardi recently.  I thought he mishandled his attempts to trade Roy Halladay and his recent salary dump of Alex Rios just further strengthened my belief that he is not particularly good at his job.  But my criticism was nothing compared to what Joe Posnanski had to say on his blog.

Yesterday, I commented on a blog post by Dave Kaplan in which Kaplan claimed that Carlos Zambrano is the most overpaid player in baseball.  Posnanski did Kaplan one better by listing the 11 worst contracts in baseball
(Zambrano’s is not among them, although he does comment on it).  In the process, Posnanski rips Ricciardi pointing out that Ricciardi’s fingerprints are all over some of the very worst contracts in the game.  

Posnanski’s article/blog post makes for a great read.  It also points out the absurdity of Kaplan’s claim.  As Posnanski illustrates, not only is Zambrano’s contract not one of the worst in baseball, it’s not even the worst on the Cubs.  Alfonso Soriano’s contract takes that honor.

But back to Ricciardi.  Posnanski admits that he just doesn’t understand anything about Ricciardi, yet he comes up with a way to honor the man.  In the future, Posnanski suggests, all bad baseball contracts should be referred to as Ricciardis.  A fitting tribute to the man who has perfected the art of handing out bad contracts to average or worse players.

Before I go, I have to quote my favorite line from Posnanski’s post.  It’s hilarious.

In talking about Vernon Wells contract, which Posnanski deems as the worst in all of baseball, he says this:

“Cot’s Baseball Contracts — the incredibly awesome site where I got these numbers from — is one of my favorite Internet stops. And on occasion, just for fun, I will go to the site just to look up Vernon Wells’ contract. I don’t know why. It gives me hope, somehow. It tells me that in this world, anything is possible. It tells me that good things happen, funny things, unexpected things. Don’t tell me that I won’t win the lottery … just look at Vernon Wells’ contract.

In 2011, Vernon Wells will get paid $23 million. No. Really. He will get paid $23 million.

In 2012, he will have to take a paycut and will only get $21 million. Same in 2013. And same again in 2014.”

And then he adds my favorite line from his piece;

“This isn’t a baseball contract. This is a testament to the power of mankind to do the impossible.”

Brilliant!

First, Carlos Zambrano was added to the DL with back spasm.  Next, Aramis Ramirez “tweaked” the shoulder that landed him on the DL earlier in the year and was sent back to Chicago for an MRI.  Then in last night’s game, newly acquired lefty Tom Gorzellany took a grounder off of his right foot that forced him out of the game. 

The news about Gorzellany is probably the best for the Cubs.  He had x-rays following the game and nothing was broken.  Dr. Lou Piniella pronounced him fit to get in his regular throwing in a couple of days and said he expects Gorzellany to make his next start.  We’ll see…

Zambrano had an MRI and it indicated that the bulging disc in the pitcher’s back is no worse now than it was in 2006.  He is expected to return around August 21.

That leaves Ramirez.  Without him earlier in the year, the Cubs went into a swoon and barely maintained a .500 winning pct.  When he came back, the team seemed to get a second win.  If he’s not able to continue to play, or if he plays at a reduced level – both very real possibilities – the Cubs are in big trouble.  He is the glue that holds the team together, and he is the only guy that can be counted on to hit when everyone else is in a slump.

A lot is made of the Mets injury woes, but the Cubs are not too far behind in that category.  Their ace has been on the shelf twice this year, Ramirez, their best hitter, has had a long stint on the DL and may be visiting it again, Geovany Soto spent several weeks rehabbing his shoulder, Ted Lilly had knee surgery while on the DL for shoulder soreness, plus a ton of other injuries both big and small.  Injuries have been a constant problem for the team this year and it doesn’t look like things are going to be getting better any time soon.

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The Cubs have not been good on the road this year.  They are 33-19 at home, but just 25-33 on the road.  So the silver lining of the recent 4-6 road trip is that it’s over and the Cubs get to come home for six games against the State of Pennsylvania (three games with the Phillies followed by three games with the Pirates).

Rookie of the Year candidate J.A. Happ (8-2) gets the start in game one for Philadelphia against the Cubs Rich Harden (7-7).  Wednesday should be interesting.  Newly acquired veteran righthander Pedro Martinez (0-0) gets the nod for Philly.  He’ll face Cubs rookie Jeff Samardzjia (1-1).  On Thursday, Philadelphia’s other new pitcher will take the mound as Cliff Lee (9-9 for Cleveland) will take on Ryan Dempster (6-5).

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We learned yesterday that the White Sox were indeed the team that made the waiver claim on Alex Rios.  According to Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Star, Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi tried to get something in return for Rios, but was quickly told that there would not be any players coming back in return for the outfielder.  Ricciardi did the right thing and just let the White Sox have Rios and his nearly $60 million contract.

I have to admit that I underestimated Ricciardi.  I fully expected him to insist on getting something for Rios, but he didn’t.  Considering the way he overplayed his hand in the pre-trade deadline Roy Halladay negotiations, I’m a little surprised that he relented on Rios.

Now the White Sox are stuck with one of the worst contracts in baseball.  It’s not that Rios is bad, he’s just significantly overpaid.  Plus, the White Sox already have a full outfield, so who is going to play where and when.  That’s the same question that White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye would like answered.  Dye has a mutual option in his contract for 2010 and the addition of Rios makes it less likely that the White Sox will exercise that option.

Even though the White Sox could jetison Dye, DH Jim Thome, and pitcher Jose Contreras when their contracts expire at the end of the year.  they are still going to be on the hook for a lot of money in 2010.  I’m afraid GM Kenny Williams has overreached on this one.  Adding Jake Peavy’s contract to the payroll in July was a good move, but adding Rios is going to come back to haunt the Southsiders.

Rich Harden didn’t look bad, pitching 6.0 innings and giving up four hits, including a homerun to Scott Rolen in his first at-bat since being beaned last week.  Harden gave up a total of three earned runs, while striking out nine and walking four.

Of the four hits mustered by the Cubs, Harden had the only extra base hit, a non-consequential double.  Alfonso Soriano had one of the other Cubs hits, but he was summarily picked-off first base to take away any threat he posed.

The Cubs will enjoy a day off today as they travel to Colorado for a three game set against the Rockies.  Carlos Zambrano (7-4) will kick things off on Friday against the Rockies Ubaldo Jimenez (8-9).

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The Cubs released BJ Ryan yesterday.  According to a tweet on Twitter from Gordon Wittenmyer, Ryan asked for his release because he didn’t think his velocity was coming back.

This situation seems strange to me.  Ryan was released from Toronto because his velocity was down and he wasn’t nearly as effective as he had been in previous years.  Toronto worked with him on his mechanics, but things didn’t work out. 

The Cubs took a flyer on Ryan and he reported to Mesa with a ton of enthusiasm to work hard and get his mechanics right.  Cubs officials stated that they were impressed that Ryan wanted to “do things the right way,” meaning he was willing to be patient and to work hard to solve his mechanical flaws.  Once in Mesa, a Cubs official (it may have been Randy Bush) said that Ryan’s problems were more mental than mechanical, making it sound like they could get him straightened out more quickly that first expected.

Ryan quickly made his way to AAA Iowa where he was pitching very well over the course of a week or two.  Rumors were flying that he was on the fast track to join the Cubs in August.  Then out of the blue, he asks for his release.

I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes nor do I know what motivation Ryan may have had for asking for his release, but the whole thing seems odd to me.  Does Ryan have another opportunity he wants to pursue?  Did the Cubs find out something negative about Ryan (Physical problem?  Steroids?).  I don’t know, but it seems like there’s more to the story than we know right now.

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I’ve been critical of JP Ricciardi for not dealing Roy Halladay at the trade deadline.  I felt he was asking too steep of a price for Halladay, he deluded himself when teams weren’t willing to pay his price, and he further deluded himself by believing that teams will pay even more for Halladay in the off season.  Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated has chimed in with his thoughts, and it sounds like we generally agree.

In a nutshell, Heyman blames Ricciardi for talking too much about the trade and being too candid.  For instance, it certainly didn’t help Ricciardi’s negotiating position by publicly staing that the Yankees and Red Sox would have to pay more for Halladay that out-of-division teams.  Not only did it let both the Yankees and Red Sox know that they didn’t have to worry about the other obtaining Halladay, but it also let Philadelphia and other out-of-division teams know that the Yankees and Red Sox would not be serious competition for Halladay.

Heyman is also critical of Ricciardi for not being more creative in his negotiations.  According to Heyman, Ricciardi should have made an effort to package Halladay with either Vernon Wells or Alex Rios in an attempt to move a big contract that is hampering Toronto’s efforts to rebuild and contend.  I had mentioned the possibility of packaging Wells and Halladay in a previous post and I still think it would have been a good idea for Toronto.  True, adding Wells or Rios to the deal may have reduced the return the Blue Jays would have gotten for Halladay alone, but it would have created much needed payroll flexibility for Toronto.

In a radio interview, ESPN’s Jayson Stark was asked if Riccardi’s failure to move Halladay might lead to his firing.  Stark responded that he didn’t think Ricciardi would be fired because he didn’t move Haladay.  Instead, he thinks Ricciardi was already on the hot seat, and Toronto management may have wanted Ricciardi to trade Halladay so the new GM wouldn’t have to.  Now, he can see a situation where Ricciardi is fired and the first order of business for the new GM will be to trade Halladay. If that happens, the new GM will almost certainly get less for Halladay than Ricciardi was shooting for, making the new GM look weak in comparison.  Not a good way to start a new job.