There are a ton of possibilities for center field on both the free agent and trade markets.  Today, I’d like to take a look at who’s available on the free agent market:

Free Agents

Rick Ankiel — Ankiel is a good story.  He was a pitcher with great stuff who couldn’t throw strikes, so he converted himself into an outfielder so he could get back to the big leagues.  They should make a movie about him.  But should the Cubs sign him?  In St. Louis last year, Ankiel hit .231/285/.387 with 11 homeruns and 38 RBI.  Ankiel suffered through several bumps and bruises throughout 2009, limiting him to 122 games.  He earned $2.825 million last year and is reportedly looking for a big contract (Scott Boras is his agent).

Marlon Byrd — The Cubs seem to be focusing on Byrd.  Now that Mike Cameron has signed with the Red Sox, Byrd seems like the consensus “next choice.”  I’m not so sure.  He had a good year last year in Texas (sound familiar?), but to me, he seems overrated.  In 2009, he hit .283/.329/.422 with 20 homeruns and 89 RBI.  He made $3.6 million in 2009 and is looking for a multi-year deal, probably in the $7-$8 million per year range.

Rocco Baldelli — I have to admit to liking Baldelli.  He’s another guy with a good story, having overcome mitochodrial disorder to continue his MLB career.  He always plays like it’s his last day in baseball and is so gung-ho that he had the MLB logo tatooed on his calf.  But should he be the Cubs’ center fielder?  In 2009 with Boston he hit .253/.311/.433 with 7 homeruns and 23 RBI in 62 games.  A hip flexor strain kept him out of action for a good part of the year.  The 28-year old Baldelli earned only $500,000 in 2009 and would probably be willing to sign a reasonable one-year contract.  Because of that, I like him for the 2010 Cubs.  Also, because he hits lefties so well, perhaps he could be part of a platoon.

Ryan Church — Church played 23 games in center field last year and put togeter a UZR/150 rating of -37.8.  His career UZR/150 in center is -3.5.  He’s much better in right field.  So, to say that he can play center field is a bit of a misnomer.  He has played center field, but he has not played it well.  Church really belongs in right field and the Cubs should not consider him for center.

Coco Crisp — In 2009, Crisp hit .228/.336/.378 with 3 homeruns and 14 RBI in just 49 games for Kansas City.  His biggest asset is his fielding.  He sports an overall UZR/150 of 5.8 in center field, although it was 19.6 in limited action last year.  He earned $5.75 million in 2009 and Kansas City decided not to exercise his $8 million option for 2010.  Did You Know?:  Coco’s real first name is Covelli.

Johnny Damon — Can Damon play center field any more?  The Yankees didn’t think so.  He hasn’t played center field since 2008, and even then he only played 34 games there.  At this point in his career, I consider Damon a left fielder/DH.  In 2009, he hit .282/.365/.489 for the Yankees with 24 homeruns and 82 RBI.  He also scored 107 runs.  He earned $13 million in 2009 and is reportedly looking for a two or three year deal for similar money.  I think Damon can still be a legit lead-off hitter, but he’s too expensive for the Cubs and really doesn’t play the position they are trying to fill.

Jerry Hairston, Jr.  — I have always pulled for Hairston, especially when he was with the Cubs.  He was a Chicago area guy (grew up in Naperville) and he was versatile, playing all over the field.  In center field, he has a career UZR/150 rating of 17.5.  In 2009, he started the year with the Reds, but ended up the year playing for the Yankees.  That’s quite a change.  Between the two teams, Hairston hit .251/.315/.394 with 10 homeruns and 39 RBI.  He earned $2 million in 2009.  If he’s willing to sign for a year and reasonable money ($1-$2 million) he might be a good gamble, but I don’t see him with the Cubs in 2010.

Reed Johnson — Johnson wasn’t offered arbitration by the Cubs, but there has been talk that they are interested in re-signing him.  He has been a good pickup, after being released by Toronto following Spring Training in 2008.  In 2009, Johnson hit .255/.330/.415 with 4 homeruns and 22 RBI in 65 games.  Johnson spent a good chunk of the 2009 season on the DL with a broken foot.  He earned $3 million in 2009 and my guess is that he is looking for a one-year deal for about the same money.  Johnson hits left handed pitching very well and makes for a good platoon partner.

Scott Podsednik — Scotty Pods has been a fan favorite on the Southside of Chicago.  His hitting stats are never that impressive, but he seems to be able to rise to the ocassion.  In 2009, he hit .304/353/.412 for the White Sox with 7 homeruns and 48 RBI (actually, not that bad).  He also stole 30 bases in 2009 and could be the lead-off hitter the Cubs covet.   As a center fielder, he’s below average, posting a career UZR/150 rating of -5.6.  He earned $800,000 in 2009, but is reportedly looking for a three-year/$12 million deal.  If that’s the case, then I say the Cubs should take a pass.  But a reasonable one-year deal might be worth looking at.

Randy Winn — Winn hit .262/.318/.353  with two homeruns and 51 RBI for the Giants in 2009.  He earned $8.25 million and at 35-years old, is almost certainly not going to make that much in 2010.  However, I would expect Winn to hold out for a multi-year contract, which should make him unattractive to the Cubs.  I’ve always thought of Winn as a good fielder, but his UZR/150 rating doesn’t bear that out.  He hasn’t had a positive rating in center field since 2005 and his career rating in center is -1.3. 

In my next post, I’ll take a look at possible trade candidates to fill the void in center field.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.