So now that we’re beginning our descent of Off Season Mountain, what can we expect from the Cubs in the weeks ahead?

The Cubs are in a tough position.  They presumably have very little money to spend, but they still have at least three holes to fill.  Some would say the Cubs have “needs” rather than “holes.”  I’m not sure which is technically correct.  The point is that the Cubs have viable options in-house to address their needs, but they would be better off looking elsewhere for help.

One such position is second base.  In-house, the Cubs have Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker, neither of whom should be a starting second baseman on a legitimately contending team.  The Cubs have the fourth highest payroll in MLB (based on 2009 figures), but have one of the weakest second basemen in all of baseball.  That’s just not right.

Another option at second for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot.  If he moves to second, the Cubs will need to find a stand-in  for a year at SS until prospect Starlin Castro is ready (the Cubs wouldn’t bring Castro up at the beginning of 2010, would they?)  One in-house option at SS is Andres Blanco.  He’s a slick fielding SS, but a weak hitter.  The up-the-middle defense would be good, but the offense would be even weaker than it was last year when Fontenot was starting at second.

If there’s any money available, the Cubs could improve the team by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year deal.  Of course, I’m sure that Hudson would like a multi-year deal for $4-$5 million per year (he made $3.38 million plus bonuses last year), but considering the current state of the free agent market, that’s unlikely.

Another guy to consider is the guy that sent Hudson to the bench last year in Los Angeles: Ronnie Belliard.  He’s another guy who is seemingly being shunned in free agency.  He made $1.9 million last year and probably won’t command much, if any, more this year.

The idea is to find a second baseman who can be had on a cheap ($1-$3 million) one-year deal, but who will also make the team better.  Either Hudson or Belliard are better options than what the Cubs currently have in-house.

If the Cubs decide to look to the free agent market for a SS, there are only two guys they should consider, but the odds are that neither one will meet the criteria of being cheap and willing to take a one year deal.  The two shortstops, Orlando Cabrera and Miguel Tejada, would both be upgrades, but likely out of the Cubs league.

Another position that needs attention is starting pitching.  The Cubs enter the season with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells as the only pitchers certain to be in the starting rotation.  Ted Lilly will start the year on the DL, so Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia will battle it out for the other two spots in the starting rotation.  No matter who emerges from that group, it doesn’t make the starting rotation very strong.

Rumors have been circulating that the Cubs are interested in adding Ben Sheets.  I’m all for signing Sheets, but I heard initially that he was seeking a contract for $12 million/year.  More recently, I’ve read that his demand is more in the $7-$9 million range.

I like Ben Sheets and when he is healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he’s coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of baseball for the entire 2009 season.  That’s not the kind of guy you want to spend a lot of money on or who you want to give a multi-year contract.

If Sheets’ price comes down to $3-$4 million for one year, I can see the Cubs getting involved (along with a host of other teams).  But at his current asking price, he’s not only out of the Cubs range, but also a bad risk.

Finally, the Cubs could use another bullpen arm.  In my opinion, this is the one need that the Cubs could probably fill in-house.  They have a depth of decent bullpen arms.  Even so, this appears to be the position where Jim Hendry is focusing his efforts.  Rumor has it that he is targeting the Blue Jays Jason Frasor.  I don’t know what the Cubs would have to give up to get Frasor, but I really have to question the wisdom of adding an arbitration-eligible bullpen pitcher who made $1.45 million last year when the team has other needs.

Honestly, I don’t expect any big moves out of the Cubs the remainder of the off season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs went into Spring Training without making any moves.  I hope that doesn’t happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

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Are the Cubs moving their Spring Training home to Florida?  I still think it’s a long-shot, but the Naples effort got a boost recently when the Collier County Hotel and Lodging Association voted unanimously to approve use of the County’s tourist tax to build a new stadium for the Cubs.

The move was important not only because it cleared the way to use proceeds from the tourist tax to help fund building the Cubs a new training complex, but also because it showed the Cubs that the hoteliers are completely on board with the proposal to bring the Cubs to Naples.  Cubs President Crane Kenney made it clear that the Cubs only want to go where they are wanted.  So the unanimous vote to use proceeds from the tourist tax was an important step forward for the Naples effort.

A few weeks ago, the Cubs announced that they had eliminated a proposed Spring Training site on the Gila River Indian Community in  Arizona.  That leaves Mesa, AZ and Naples as the only two remaining possibilities.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

In the field, the Cubs would prefer to add a center fielder and move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.  If that center fielder is a middle-of-the-order run producer, all the better.  The team will also be looking for a second baseman, unless they can find a good shortstop, which will force Ryan Theriot over to second base.

The starting pitching staff is pretty well set, but the bullpen is a bit in flux.  Will John Grabow re-sign?  More importantly, do the Cubs want to enter the 2010 season with Carlos Marmol as their closer?

Over the next few days, I’ll take a look at the team and give my thoughts on what the Cubs brain trust should do this offseason to get ready for 2010.  Today, I’ll start with the infield.

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First Base — There’s little doubt who will play first base next year.  Derrek Lee will be entering the final year of his contract in 2010 and there’s no reason to believe he’s going anywhere.  However, the question of who is going to back him up is a good one.  Lee has missed playing time over the past couple of years with a pinched nerve in his neck.  If the problem flares up again, who will play first base?

Within the organization, Micah Hoffpauir is the first guy that comes to mind.  Jake Fox is another.  Both guys are considered “offense-first” type of players, but I think both showed this past year that they can do a credible, if unspectacular, job in the field.  Although Fox is generally considered the more potent offensive threat, they put up very similar number in 2009.  Hoffpauir bats left-handed, which may carry more weight in the decision than it should.  Fox is more versatile in the field.

Another option is for the Cubs to sign a fairly low dollar free agent who could back up at first base and be a dependable bat off the bench.  Someone on the back side of their career that can accept a backup role and can be an additional veteran presence.  Someone in the mold of Tony Clark or Kevin Millar comes to mind.  The knock against bringing in someone like Clark or Millar is they probably won’t put up any better numbers than Hoffpauir or Fox, but they will probably cost more.  That’s a good point.  So unless you feel that the veteran presence is that important, stick with Hoffpauir or Fox and save your money.

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Second Base — We found out in 2009 that Mike Fontenot is not the answer to the second base question.  The Cubs also have Aaron Miles, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco on the roster and all three can play second base.  Even so, I don’t think any of them is the answer the Cubs are looking for at second.

In my opinion, Aaron Miles does not have a role to play on the 2010 Cubs.  He needs to be traded or released.  I know that releasing him will cost some money, but keeping him on the team will waste a valuable roster spot.  If you can trade him, great, but be willing to release him if you have to.

I envision Jeff Baker playing the role of a poor man’s Mark DeRosa.  He impressed in his time with the Cubs last year and I can see him coming back in an expanded role.  I don’t foresee him as the everyday second baseman, but rather as a super sub.  He can play several positions and do a credible job at all of them.

Andres Blanco is an interesting player.  He’s known for his awesome defense, but what people don’t know is that his offense has improved since joining the Cubs.  My understanding is that Blanco battled injuries during the early part of his career and did not get the at-bats he so desperately needed.  Now that he is healthy, his offense is improving and is becoming a much larger part of his game.

Although it would not be my first choice, I could see a middle infield made up of Theriot and Blanco.  I’d prefer Blanco at short and Theriot at second, but the other way around could work as well.  In my opinion, the Cubs should only consider this if they can’t find a more suitable solution via free agency or a trade.

Some possible free agent targets the Cubs might consider are Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson and Akinori Iwamura.  I’m almost certain that Figgins will be too expensive (four or five years at $10 million/year?).  Also, he’s somewhat of a hot commodity at the moment, so there will be considerable competition for him.

Hudson is a little more realistic, but considering that he was beaten out of his starting job with the Dodgers by Ronnie Belliard, the bloom is a bit off this rose.  Even so, Hudson put up respectable numbers in 2009 (.283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI) and might be a good fit for the Cubs.  He’s neither the speed demon nor the middle-of-the-order run producer they want, but he’d likely do a better job than the in-house candidates.

Iwamura is an interesting possibility.  He’s currently with the Rays and they have an option on him for next year that will cost them $4.25 million.  The Ray are likely to opt for the buyout ($250,000) rather than pick up his option.  They have other less expense possibilities at second base, so Iwamura will likely be a free agent.

In 2009, Iwamura had a hitting line of .290/.355/.390 in 69 games.  Again, he’s not a speed demon or a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he could still be a nice addition to a Cubs team that had trouble getting on base this past year.

A couple of other free agent possibilities include Mark DeRosa and Freddie Sanchez.  I like both of these guys, but I don’t think either one makes sense.  DeRosa is going to be 35 years old and he’s coming off of wrist surgery.  He was once an integral part of the Cubs, but that ship has sailed. 

Sanchez is an interesting possibility.  San Francisco has a club option on Sanchez for $8 million with a $600,000 buyout.  Opinion has been that the Giants will opt for the buyout, but would like to sign him for less money.  Sanchez will be 32 in 2010 and will be coming off knee surgery.  He’s expected to be 100% healthy by Spring Training.

I like Sanchez and he interests me if the price is right.  Problem is, I don’t think the price will be right.

Another interesting free agent name is Placido Polanco, who will be 34 next season.  Polanco hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 homeruns and 72 RBI for Detroit in 2009.  He’s a career .303/.348/.414 hitter, but at least initially, the market seems to be soft for him.  He made $4.6 million last year.  If he is willing to take a pay cut, he’ll be in the Cubs financial ball park.  If not, he’ll be playing for someone else next year.

Potential trade targets include Kelly Johnson (Atlanta) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore).  Roberts would obviously cost the Cubs much more that Johnson.  In fact, the only way Roberts could conceivably end up with the Cubs is if he is part of a package involving Milton Bradley.  I’ve pushed the idea of a Milton Bradley and others package for Roberts and Luke Scott.  I don’t know if either Jim Hendry or Orioles GM Andy MacPhail have jumped on that bandwagon yet, but I’ll keep beating the drum.

Johnson doesn’t seem to bring anything to the table that Baker or Blanco couldn’t provide.  He’s the type of player that Hendry has shown an interest in in the past, but I don’t think he makes sense for the Cubs.

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Shortstop — Unless the Cubs make some sort of unexpected move, Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop in 2010.  Let’s face it, despite the call for an all-star caliber shortstop by many fans, Theriot has done a more than credible job during his tenure.  In 2009, he hit .284/.383/.369 with 7 homeruns and 54 RBI.  And he only made $500,000.  What a bargain.

Blaco is another guy that could conceivable take over short and push Theriot over to second.  Eventually, I think Starlin Castro will do this anyway, so maybe it’s a good idea to get Theriot started at second now. 

Although I don’t expect the Cubs to bring in a shortstop via trade or free agency, there are a couple of names out there to consider.  I don’t foresee the Cubs getting in on Marco Scutaro, but there is a small chance they could take a flyer on Orlando Cabrera or Miguel Tejada.  The reason I think these two guys may be on the Cubs radar is because I expect both to still be available at the end of the offseason for a relatively bargain price (ala Bobby Abreau last year).  It wouldn’t bother me to get a veteran shortstop for a year to hold the position for Starlin Castro in 2011.  However, I don’t expect it to happen.

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Third Base — With any luck, Aramis Ramirez will return healthy next year and will stay healthy all year.  He missed two months in 2009 with a shoulder separation and trying to fill his place in the lineup and in the field proved to be ctwo hallenges the Cubs were not up for.  So who will be Ramirez’ backup in 2010?

Jake Fox is one internal possibility.  He’s not going to win any Gold Gloves at third, but he did a better job there than many expected.  With some additional work, he might even be credible.

Jeff Baker is another guy that can fill in for Ramirez.  In fact, I never did quite understand why the Cubs didn’t give Baker more playing time at third in 2009 while Ramirez was injured.  As the team’s super sub, I would call on him to fill in at third when needed.  As such, I don’t foresee and moves to bring in a backup for Ramirez.

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Catcher — Who is the real Geovany Soto?  Did we see the real Soto in 2008 when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors and hit .285/.364/.504 with 26 homeruns and 62 RBI or was his .218/.321/381 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 2009 the real Soto?  I wish I knew.  I think the Cubs feel the same way.

Soto’s performance in 2008 was a pleasant surprise.  His minor league numbers didn’t lead people to think he would hit as well in a full-time MLB role as he did.  Now, after his performance in 2009, people are asking whether or not 2008 was just a fluke.

I have little doubt that the Cubs will enter the 2010 season with Soto as their starting catcher.  However, I’m not convinced that they will stick with him for very long if he struggles at the plate the way he did in 2009.

The Cubs will not look to replace Soto via trade or free agency, but they may look into bringing back free agent catcher Henry Blanco to act as a mentor to Soto.  There is some thought that Soto struggled in 2009 without the same influence that Blanco provided in 2008.  Blanco will be 38 years old, so the Cubs should not expect too much out of him, but if he can play the role of mentor to Soto and give him a day off every once in a while, bringing Blanco back on a one-year deal may be a good investment.

Having said all of this, I think it is fair to ask, what about Koyie Hill?  Hill was a capable fill in for Soto while he was on the DL and during his offensive struggles.  He deserves to be brought back.  Unfortunately, things don’t always work out the way they should.  Since Hill is out of minor league options, he may be moved as part of a trade.

It would not bother me to see Hill brought back next year, but the more important issue is putting Soto in a situation where he can  succeed.  If bringing Henry Blanco back improves Soto’s chances of repeating 2008, by all means, bring Blanco back and trade Hill.

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That’s it for the infield.  Next, I’ll look at what needs to be done with the outfield.