I’m please that the Cubs are one of the top spending teams in the major leagues.  Considering the size of their market and there considerable revenue advantages, they should have one of the top payrolls.  However, I don’t believe their roster is nearly as good as it can be based on the amount they spend.I’ve been analyzing each position and comparing the player the Cubs have at that position to the players the five other biggest payroll teams have at that position.  To read the previous posts, visit these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field

Today, I’d like to turn my attention to center field.  The center fielders that we’ll be looking at are:

• Brett Gardner (Yankees)
• Carlos Beltran (Mets)
• Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
• Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
• Shane Victorino (Phillies)
• Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox)

Based on their 2009 salary, this is how they rank:

• Carlos Beltran ($18.5 million)
• Kosuke Fukudome ($11.5 million)
• Curtis Granderson ($3.5 million)
• Shane Victorino ($3.125 million)
• Jacoby Ellsbury ($449,500)
• Brett Gardner ($414,000)

As we look at these players, there are a couple of things to keep in mind.  First, although Gardner was the opening day center fielder for the Yankees in 2009, Melky Cabrera actually played the bulk of the season in center.  Even so, at the start of the season, Gardner was tops on the depth chart in center for the Yanks.  That’s why we’ll be looking at him rather than Cabrera.

Also, even though Fukudome is primarily a right fielder and was signed by the Cubs to play right field, he started the season in center and played the majority of his games there.  So we’ll be comparing him to the other team’s center fielders.

Let’s start by taking a look at how these players did in 2008.  Looking back will give us an idea of how they did the year prior to the year we are interested in (2009) and give us some idea of why their team felt they should be their team’s starting center fielder in 2009.  First, let’s look at how the players rank based on their 2008 WAR:

1. Carlos Beltran (WAR 6.7)
2. Shane Victorino (WAR 4.1)
3. Curtis Granderson (WAR 3.7)
4. Jacoby Ellsbury (WAR 3.3)
5. Kosuke Fukudome (WAR 1.8)
6. Brett Gardner (WAR 1.1)

Beltran had a big year for the Mets in 2008.  Victorino also had a good year, helping to lead the Phillies to a World Series Championship. 

Fukudome did not have a good year.  As you’ll recall, 2008 was the Fukudome’s first year in the U.S. polaying Major League Baseball.  He started out strong, but then faded badly as the season progressed.

Next, let’s see how the center fielders ranmk based on 2008 OPS+:

1. Carlos Beltran (OPS+ 129)
2. Curtis Granderson (OPS+ 123)
3. Shane Victorino (OPS+ 106)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (OPS+ 89)
5.  Jacoby Ellsbury (OPS+ 87)
6. Brett Gardner (OPS+ 53)

Keep in mind that the “average” MLB player has a score of 100.  Anything less than that is considered below average.  In 2008, based on OPS+ (and just about any other measure), Fukudome was below average.

In 2009, this is how the center fieldres ranked based on WAR:

1. Curtis Granderson (WAR 3.4)
2. Shane Victorino (WAR 3.4)
3. Carlos Beltran (WAR 2.9)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (WAR 2.3)
5. Brett Gardner (WAR 2.1)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (WAR 1.9)

In 2009, Beltran missed a lot of time due to injuries.  WAR takes into account how often you are in the lineup.  Even so, he was still more valuable than Fukudome.  In fact, Fukudome had 499 at-bats in 2009 compared to 308 ABs for Beltran, yet Beltran was still the more valuable player.

Based on 2009 OPS+, the center fielders ranked like this:

1. Carlos Beltran (OPS+ 143)
2. Shane Victorino (OPS+ 109)
3. Kosuke Fukudome (OPS+ 104)
4. Curtis Granderson (OPS+ 100)
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (OPS+ 97)
6. Brett Gardner (OPS+ 93)

I was surprised that Fukudome scored as high as he did.  Altough he was just slightly above average, I didn’t think he’d even be that high.  I’m also surprised that Ellsbury didn’t do better.  I expected him to score higher.  I may have to re-evaluate my belief that the Cubs should try to trade for him.

When all is said and done, this is how I would rank the center fielders:

1. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
2. Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
3. Shane Victorino (Phillies)
4. Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox)
6. Brett Gardner (Yankees)

Beltran is obviously the class of the field.  When he’s healthy, he’s arguably the best center fielder in the game (at least the best hitting).

Granderson and Victorino are a close call.  In the end, I gave the nod to Granderson because of his higher career OPS+ (113 vs. 99), but it could have gone either way.

I ranked Fukudome ahead of Ellsbury based on what they’ve done over the past two years, but truthfully, I would prefer to have Ellsbury in center field going forward.

Brett Gardner brought up the rear.  The reason this is surprising is that he is the one weak link in the Yankee’s 2009 opening day starting lineup.  This explains why the Yanks replaced him with Melky Cabrera last year.

When comparing Fukudome against other center fielders, he simply does not match up.  Beltran, Granderson, and Victorino are obviously better players than Fukudome.  Then if you consider other center fielders such as Denard Span (one of my favorites), Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp, Michael Bourne, Franklin Gutierrez, and others, it become clear that Fukudome is not one of the top center fielders in baseball.

Even if you compare Fukudome to right fielders (his normal position), he does not compare favorably.  The Cubs took a chance by signing Fukudome.  I understand their desire to increase their profile internationally, but by just about all accounts, Fukudome has been a bust.

Bottom Line:  What we’re trying to determine in this post is whether or not the Cubs have one of the top center fielders in baseball.  I think we showed pretty clearly that they do not.  Fukudome was a highly touted plasyer from Japan and the Cubs took a chance by signing him.  Unfortunately, the risk didn’t pay off.

I give the Cubs credit for trying something different to improve the ball club.  Unfortunately, Kosuke Fukudome was probably not the right guy to take a chance on.  He’s been a disappointment during his time with the Cubs and he’s not the caliber of player that the third highest payroll team in baseball (based on 2009 payroll) should have in the starting line up.

Rich Harden pitched 6.1 innings of perfect baseball before Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz conived a walk off the right hander.  At that point, the Cubs were up 2-0.  Two batters later, Harden gave up a two-run homer and his no-hitter to Jimmy Rollins, and the game was suddenly tied.

Overall, Harden pitched a really good game.  Over 7.0 innings, he gave up two hits, allowed two runs, struck out six and walked two.  But the Cubs offense, which compiled seven hits in seven innings, could only muster two runs, so Harden got a no-decision for his effort.

In the eighth inning, Carlos Marmol came into the game and couldn’t find the strike zone.  He walked the first batter he faced  got two outs, and the hit Shane Victorino with a pitch.  With runners on first and second and two outs, Marmol walked Chase Utley to load the bases for Ryan Howard.  Marmol then walked Howard to force a run home and give the Phillies the lead.

In the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs played some small ball.  Kosuke Fukudome walked and was bunted over to second before Milton Bradley singled him home to tie the game.

In the top of the 12, Kevin Gregg, who was pitching in his second inning, gave up a solo shot to Ben Francisco; the first guy he faced in the inning.  The Phillies then rubbed a little salt in the wound by bringing in former Cub Scott Eyre to close out his former teammates in the bottom half of the inning.

Overall, Cubs pitching only gave up three hits in 12.0 innings.  Unfortunately, they also gave up two homeruns, five base-on-balls, and a hit-by-pitch that ultimately doomed them. 

The series continues tonight as Pedro Martinez (0-0) takes on Jeff Samardzjia (1-1).  It will be the first start this year for both pitchers.

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Is it time to do something about Carlos Marmol?  He was a great story last year, but he’s a mess this year.  Marmol has walked 52 batter in 58 innings this year, and in August, he is averaging 14.73 walks per nine innings.   While he has the potential to be special, the reality is that his lack of control is killing the Cubs.  Marmol needs to be sent to Iowa (or Arizona) to work on his control.  The stakes are way too high for him to be doing what he’s doing at the major lreague level.

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Is Carlos Zambrano the most overpaid player in MLB?  Dave Kaplan thinks so.  Kaplan, the host of CSN’s Chigago Tribune Live! and WGN Radio’s Sports Central, had this to say on his blog:

“I am so sick of hearing that Carlos Zambrano is the “ace” of the Cubs staff and that he is considered one of the best starters in the baseball [sic]. That is such a pile of garbage and it is about time people start to call this guy what he really is, a fraud.

“Zambrano is not a big game pitcher, he is not an ace, and if the Cubs can, I believe they will look to move him and his bloated contract out of Chicago as soon as possible. What qualities does a #1 starter have? How about piling up wins? Zambrano has averaged 14 wins a season since he became a full time starter in 2003. Does he play the role of leader on the club? Don’t make me laugh. He is immature, doesn’t work as hard as the Cubs would like, and he is not what one would consider a big game pitcher. Many times Zambrano has had a chance to stop a losing streak or to win a big game and he has failed a majority of those times.”

That sounds horrible, but he was just getting started:

“The facts don’t lie. The Cubs are paying for top flight performance from a pitcher who has the skills to be a big winner. However, Zambrano’s performance does not warrant such a big contract and his 18 million dollar annual salary is one of the deals that is limiting financial flexibility for the front office. Talk to the scouts that attend every game the Cubs play and they all bemoan his incredible physical talents and lack of productivity for a guy whose reputation  is that of a superstar.

“Zambrano has won all of 7 games this season. That’s it. He has had incidents with a Gatorade machine, been suspended for his outburst towards a home plate umpire, and  has had two stints on the disabled list. Seven wins for 18 million dollars and enough headaches for management to drive them crazy.”

When Kaplan goes over the top, he goes WAY over the top.  Is Zambrano a “true” ace?  No, probably not.  He’s a good #2 or #3 starter, but truth be told, he’s probably not an ace.

Is Carlos Zambrano overpaid?  Yeah, I think that’s fair to say.  When it was signed, Zambrano’s contract seemed high, but not outrageous.  Considering his performance, I think it’s fair to say that he has not lived up to the level of performance that was anticipated when he signed the contract.  So yeah, I guess he’s overpaid.

Is Zambrano the most overpaid player in MLB?  No, not even close.  Guys like Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, and Gary Matthews, Jr. come to mind for that honor.  Heck, Zambrano may not even be the most overpaid player on the Cubs.  Alfonso Soriano’s contract is almost certainly worse than Zambrano’s.

I think a lot of Cubs fans are frustrated with Zambrano.  As Kaplan points out, Z has been on the DL twice this year, he was suspended for bumping an umpire, and he threw a tantrum that fatally injured a Gatorade machine.  But when he’s on the field, he does his job fairly well.  He only has seven wins through the middle of August, but he has a respectable 3.35 ERA, the lowest it has been since 2005, and his K/9 rate is up from last year. 

Kaplan’s hissy fit seems to be much more about garnering attention for its author than it does about making a salient argument about Carlos Zambrano being overpaid.  I especially like the last paragraph of his article:

“It is time for the Cubs to find a taker for the antics and the talents of Carlos Zambrano. I know that he has a no trade clause but perhaps Zambrano would also like a fresh start in a new city. He may have a golden arm but we have seen far too many other “qualities” from the man they call “Big Z” to call him an ace or a reliable starter on a team with championship aspirations. Pack your bags Carlos, it’s time to take your act to another team. We’ve tired of you and your immaturity.”

Thanks, Dave, for speaking for all of us.  You could have said “You’re” tired of Carlos Zambrano and his immaturity, but instead, you drug us all into your ridiculus tirade.  In the future, if you’re going to say something so indefensible, please leave “us” out of it.