The first game of the series was won in extra innings when Aramis Ramirez hit a two-run walk off home run off Rockies pitcher Matt Belisle.  The homerun was just Ramirez’ fourth of the year.

In the second game of the series, Ryan Theriot and Starlin Castro each had two RBI to help lead the Cubs to victory.  Tyler Colvin got the start in left field and went 3-4 with an RBI.

Following the second game of the series, Lou Piniella announced that he was going to move Zambrano back to the rotation.  Actually, that’s not exactly what he said.  What he said was that he was going to move Z out of the 8th inning set-up role and stretch him out for longer appearances.  He was rather vague on whether or not this meant that Z would return to the starting rotation.  I think he will, but Piniella would not just come out and say that.

I know there are people who are still critical of trying Z in the set-up role, but I think it was worth a try.  The starting rotation has not suffered (which doesn’t say a lot for Zambrano) and the bullpen kind of stablized with Z out there.  Unfortunately, I don’t think the experiement worked as well as Piniella had hoped.  Z did okay, but he wasn’t the difference maker that the Cubs needed.  He also continued to pitch the same way he had as a starter, meaning he didn’t really let loose of the fast ball.  He paced himself too much and I think that hurt him.

It will be interesting to see who gets knocked out of the starting rotation to accomodate Z’s return.  Carlos Silva should be sent to the pen just because he’s right handed and he is experienced.  However, he’s won five games for the Cubs this year and he doesn’t deserve a demotion.  Tom Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has pitched well, but has a record of 2-4, despite a respectable 3.04 ERA.  If he wasn’t left handed, it would be a lot easier to predict his demotion to the bullpen.  However, the Cubs already have three lefties in the pen, so I’m afraid adding Gorzelanny would be overkill. 

Another option is that the Cubs could trade Gorzelanny away.  It may be too early for that, but Gorzelanny has not hurt himself this year.  He has been solid and would be a good #4 or #5 starter on a lot of teams.

Time will tell.  For now, the Cubs head to Philadelphia for a two game series tonight and tomorrow before heading to Texas to start interleague play with the Rangers over the weekend.  Tom Gorzelanny gets the start tonight against the Phillies 87-year old pitcher Jamie Moyer.  The outcome of Gorzelanny’s performance tonight could determine his fate for the remainder of the year…or at least the near future.

As Cubs fans, we are looking at a boring remainder of the off season.  The big free agent signing (i,e., Marlon Byrd) is behind us and now it’s just a waiting game.  We also are having to deal with the fact that the Cubs were not a very good team in 2009 and this off season hasn’t really made them any better.  So while we’re bored, we have that to deal with.

I have to admit that I am surprised that the Cubs didn’t do more to improve this off season.  With a new owner coming in and Jim Hendry’s job being on the line, I thought the Cubs would make more of a splash.  The free agent market was pretty thin, but there were always trades to be made.  Apparently the Cubs front office had other plans.

As it turns out, the way that Cubs owner Tom Ricketts structured the loans he used to purchase the team may be at least in part to blame for the new regime not making a big splash.  According to a report in Investment News, the Ricketts attracted a number of institutional investors (insurance companies, pension funds, banks) who normally don’t invest in sports franchises to privide short-term financing.  These investors tend to be more conservative and it appears that the Cubs will have to remain conservative with their payroll in order to keep those investors happy.

I suppose that “conservative” is a relative term in this case.  The Cubs payroll was the fourth highest in MLB last year and will remain in the neighborhood of $140 million this year.  Even so, considering the revenue generated by the franchise, having a $140 million player payroll is not outrageous.

So it appears that it may be a while before anything very exciting happens with the Cubs.  Long-term contracts are in place, many with no-trade clauses, others simply untradeable.  In the immortal words of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (I’m paraphrasing), you go to war with the army you have, not the army you want.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com provides a glimmer of light in an otherwise murky off season.  Rosenthal predicts that Ben Sheets will eventually sign with the Cubs.  Considering the Cubs starting rotation as it now stands, that is good news.  With a starting three of Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Well to start the season, the Cubs rotation could use some help.  Lefty Ted Lilly will be on the shelf to start the season, so the final two rotation slots will be filled by some combination of Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardjzia.  Sheets would be a welcome addition indeed.

But is Rosenthal’s rumor/prediction really realistic?  Last I heard, Sheets and his agent were looking for a contract that would pay the oft-injured starter $12 million per year.  When he’s right, Sheets is worth ever penny of that.  But after coming off of surgery and a missed season in 2009, he’s a big question mark.  I don’t expect the Cubs to get involved unless his asking price comes way down.  And if it does, the Cubs will certainly not be his only suitor.

Reports like Rosenthal’s probably don’t hold much water, but at least they do brighten up the dark winter a little bit and give us something to talk about.  So reporters, keep the predictions and unsubstantiated rumors coming.  We still have two months to go before Spring Training.

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The Hall of Fame will announce their 2010 inductees tomorrow.  Good Luck to Andre Dawson.  I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.

In a separate Tweet, Stark says that there are “2 or 3″ other teams interested in Bradley.  Earlier in the day, one of those teams was identified as the Kansas City Royals and the rumor was that they were interested in trading Gil Meche to the Cubs for Bradley.  There was also a rumor that Meche would go to the Mets, Luis Castillo to the Cubs and Bradley to Kansas City.  However, Royals GM Dayton Moore shot down the rumors calling them “unbelievable” and saying that there were no talks going on with either the Cubs or the Mets about a potential deal.

Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald wrote that the Mets might be interested in trading directly with the Cubs to acquire Milton Bradley.  If Bradley couldn’t handle the bright lights of Chicago, I’m not sure how he’s going to handle New York, but if a trade can be made, that would not be the Cubs problem.

Away from the Milton Bradley front, Miles opined that Ted Lilly may not be back from injury and ready to pitch until May 1.  I’m liking the Cubs starting rotation less and less.  To start the season, it looks like Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy wells will be the Cubs top three starters.  Tom Gorzellany and Sean Marshall will likely be the other two starters to start the season with Jeff Samardjzia waiting in the wings. 

What happens if Zambrano or Dempster gets hurt?  What if Randy Wells suffers a sophomore slump?  I sure would feel better about the Cubs rotation if they had another legit pitcher as their number three or four starter.  Even if Ted Lilly comes back when expected, the cubs could still use an “insurance” arm.

Could that arm be Braden Looper?  Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com wrote that Looper would love to pitch in Chicago.  His three kids go to school there and he’d like to pitch “at home.”  The Brewers declined his $6.5 million option and instead chose the $1 million buyout.  The 35-year old right hander was 14-7 last year with a 5.22 ERA.  His career ERA is 4.15 and he has been durable, especially over the past three years.  If the Cubs could sign him to one-year at a discount (he earned $4.75 million last year), it might not be a bad signing. 

Morosi also reports that the Cubs are showing interest in right handed reliever J.J. Putz.  Putz is coming back from surgery and held a throwing session in Arizona last week to showcase his arm.  Putz could be a nice, inexpensive picjup for the bullpen.  However, since quite a few other teams are also interested in Putz, he might not be too cheap afterall.

Another rumor that made the rounds today involved San Diego sending Heath Bell to the Cubs.  It was unclear who the Cubs would send to the Padres, but two names throw out there were Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot.  Bruce Miles had commented earlier in the day that San Diego might be interested in moving Bell because they have Mike Adams ready to take over as their closer. 

Phil Rogers of the ChicagoBreakingSports.com ran with that thought and suggested that the Cubs and Padres had discussed such a trade.  In a later post, Miles debunked the rumor started reported by Rogers by saying, “Cubs GM Jim Hendry laughed off a Chicago-based rumor that had the Cubs interested in Padres closer Heath Bell, with possible trade bait being catcher Geovany Soto or shortstop Ryan Theriot. As I blogged this morning, the Cubs like Bell, but he’s not on their radar at all because he’ll have a big raise coming this fall, as he’s arbitration-eligible.”

In non-trade news, the Cubs announced that Ryne Sandberg will manager the AAA Iowa Cubs next year.  This will be Sandberg’s fourth year as a manager in the Cubs minor league system.  He spent two years in Peoria (2007-08), a year in Tennessee (2009), and now a stint in Iowa.

It would appear that the Cubs are grooming Sandberg to take over after Pinella retires after the 2010 season.  He told the Des Moines Register,  “I’ve been very pleased with the progression,” Sandberg said in a telephone interview today with the Des Moines Register. “Getting closer to the major leagues is very gratifying. I’m looking at this as another stepping stone.”

But wait, is Piniella really going to retire after 2010?  He’s not saying he will and not saying he won’t.  He told Bruce Miles, “I’m going to do the best job I possibly can, and at the end of this year, we’ll see what happens,” he said. “I can work on a handshake.”

All of this is a moot point, at least for now.  Decisions will be made sometime next year, and the decisions will likely revolve around how well the Cubs do in 2010, as well as how well Sandberg does managing in Iowa.

What’s in store for Today?  I’m sure there will be plenty of more rumors and maybe even some action.  Stay tuned.

I went overboard yesterday in my criticism of a blog post written by Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.  Her opinion was that the Cubs can not afford to add Halladay’s $15.75 million salary to their payroll, the Cubs will not be willing to trade top prospect Starlin Castro for Halladay, and Toronto’s asking price will be too high for just one year of Halladay.  In my rebuttal, I made it clear that I thought Muskat’s logic was weak and misguided.

My argument concerning Muskat’s comment about there only being one year left on Halladay’s contract was to say that any team willing to pay the price necessary to trade for Halladay would also likely want to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay before finalizing a trade.  Now Anthopulous has apparently let it be known that he would allow other teams a window to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay.

In a blog post by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, he says:

“Considering Halladay is only under contract through 2010, one way for the Jays to potentially get more in a trade would be to give another team a window in which to discuss a contract extension with the pitcher. Anthopoulos declined comment on such a scenario, but MLB.com has learned that the Jays will consider granting such a window in trade talks if it means the return is significantly greater.”

Exactly.  Former Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi totally mishandled the team’s attempts to trade Halladay last year.  Not only was he asking for way too much, but he also would not allow other teams to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay.  Considering the asking price and terms, very few teams were interested and a trade was unltimately never made.

I look at the possibility of adding Roy Halladay to the Cubs from two perspectives.  First, can the Cubs afford his contract.  While it is true that Halladay’s contract would not fit within the team’s current budget, budgets can change.  If you have to go over budget for a player like Roy Halladay, you do it.  He’s a true staff ace, something the Cubs are missing.  I know it’s easy for me to say this since it’s not my money being spent, but I still think it is the right thing to do.

Of course, adding to the budget may not even be necessary.  That’s where my second perspective comes in.  Toronto isn’t just going to give Halladay to the Cubs.  So what will it cost the Cubs to get him?

My guess is that the Blue Jays will want one MLB-ready pitcher, one or two top prospects, and maybe another body or two.  So, who fits the bill?

As far as MLB-ready pirchers go, the Cubs have Ryan Dempster (a Canadian) they could trade if the Blue Jays are looking for a proven arm.  Of course, he’s more expensive than guys like Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny, who have had some success at the MLB level and are less expensive.  Carlos Zambrano is another guy I would be willing to trade for Halladay, but I doubt if Toronto is interested in taking on his contract.

What about prospects?  Starlin Castro is currently the Cubs top prospect according to Baseball America.  I know the Cubs don’t want to move him, but for a player like Roy Halladay, I think you have to be willing to do things you’d rather not do.  But to be honest, I’m not sure it would be necessary to move Castro.  Two names that come to mind as far as prospects go are Josh Vitters and Darwin Barney. 

Until recently, Vitters was the Cubs top prospect.  It’s not so much that his stock has fallen (although it has a bit), but that Castro’s has risen.  Vitters plays third base, but is much more of an offensive player.  That might interest Toronto. 

Shortstop Darwin Barney is behind Castro on the prospect depth chart, but he’s ahead of Castro as far as being ready to play in the major leagues.  Since Toronto is likely to lose their shortstop, Marco Scuturo, to free agency this off season, they need an MLB-ready shortstop.  Barney might fit the bill.

Barney is a polished player.  He played at Oregon State during their College World Series championship years and has done well at every stop during his minor league career.  He split 2009 betwen Double-A and Triple-A, and could be ready for the next level. 

If they want a shortstop that is also one of the Cubs top 10 prospects, Toronto might consider Hak-Ju Lee.  He’s still young (19-years old), but has shown a great deal of potential so far in his short career.  He’s among the Cubs top 10 prospects according to Baseball America and he is probably just a year or two away from being ready for the big leagues.

If you move away from shortstop, the Cubs have a few other prospects that might interest Toronto.  Some names to consider are Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner, and Logan Watkins.

As for “warm bodies” the Cubs could throw in to sweeten the deal, look no further than Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir.  Fox in particular would be attractive for the Cubs because he is out of minor league options.  Both players have power, both can play more than one position, and neither one has much of a future with the Cubs.

I’m not suggesting that trading for Halladay would be easy or that a deal is imminent.  All I’m saying is that it is way too easy to dismiss the possibility of the Cubs trading for Halladay.  Do I think a trade is going to happen?  No, I don’t.  But I’m not willing to dismiss such a trade out of hand.

One final rant: The Cubs have done a good job of changing the team’s culture from lovable loser to playoff contender.  That’s good and it was a necessary step for the Cubs to take if they ever hoped to win a World Series.  But it is now time to take the next step.  The Cubs need to set their sights on the World Series.  With new owners and a down economy that allows the Cubs to flex their financial muscles, now is the perfect time for the team to focus on getting the players they need and to win a World Series.

Today, I want to pull it all together, make some predictions on what the Cubs will do to build their 2010 team, and list what I think the Cubs 25 man  roster will look like on opening day.

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I don’t expect the Cubs to make too many moves this offseason.  While I would love to see a big blockbuster trade and/or free agent signing, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. 

In the infield, I can see a free agent signing (although not a blockbuster) to fill the hole at second base.  A lot has been said about Jeff Baker taking over second base, but I don’t think the Cubs view him as a starter.  I personally would like to see him used as a super-sub, since he can play several positions.

We can be pretty sure that the second base job will not be given to Mike Fontenot or Aaron Miles.  Fontenot had his chance and didn’t take advantage of it.  Miles not only won’t be the starter at second, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs simply released him. 

There is a chance that Andres Blanco could take over at second.  Or, the Cubs may move Ryan Theriot to second and have Blanco play short.  I like Blanco and there’s part of me that would like to see him get a shot at a starting job.  Unfortunately for Andres, I don’t think that is going to happen.

That leaves a free agent, but who is it going to be?  I expect the Cubs to test the waters with Chone Figgins, but I don’t think they’ll get past preliminary discussions.  Figgins is coming off of a good year and his price is going to be too high.

Then I think they will turn their attention to Orlando Hudson.  Hudson made $3.38 million on a one-year contract last year while hitting .283/.357/.417 with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI.  However, he fell out of favor with the Dodgers at the end of the year and was replaced by Ronnie Belliard.  Both players are free agents, but I expect LA to re-sign Belliard and let Hudson walk. 

The Cubs will also probably take a look at Akinori Iwamura.  I expect the Rays to buy him out rather than exercising his $4.25 million option next year.  He’s an interesting player and I expect the Cubs to “kick the tires.” 

For what it’s worth, I think Iwamura would be a good fit for the Cubs.  He can hit at the top of the order, although he’s not a speed demon.  In three years with the Rays, Iwamura has hit .281/.354/.393.  For my money, Iwamura, who will be 31 years old next season, is the Cubs’ best option at second base.  That’s partly because Iwamura is also an accomplished third basemen, which will come in handy when/if Aramis Ramirez gets injured.  Even so, I don’t expect him to be a Cub in 2010.

In the end, I’m predicting that the Cubs will sign Hudson to a one or two year contract in the neighborhood of $5 million per year.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs signed Iwamura instead (or arranged for a trade with Tampa Bay before they decline his option), but I expect Hudson to be the Cubs second baseman next year.

The other infield positions will be filled by the current starters; Derrek Lee at first, Ryan Theriot at shortstop, and Aramis Ramirez at third.   Backups will include Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, and either Mike Fontenot or Andres Blanco.  I expect Koyie Hill to return as the backup catcher.

In the outfield, we already know that Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome will take up two of the three positions.  I expect the third outfielder will come to the Cubs as part of a trade for Milton Bradley.  Names like Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells have been thrown around quite a bit.  I don’t think either has a future with the Cubs.  Instead, I expect Milton Bradley to be traded to San Francisco for Aaron Rowand. 

Rowand is signed through 2012 at $12 million per year.  Bradley is signed through 2011 and is owed a total of $21 million.  I expect the Cubs to agree to take on the extra year and $15 million on Rowand’s contract in order to get the Giants to agree to take on Bradley.  Bradley can take over for Randy Winn in right field for San Francisco.  Winn is a free agent at the end of the year and at age 36 next season, is unlikey to re-sign with the Giants.

Rowand, who will be 33 next year, may not be the player he once was, but he still plays a credible center field.  Acquiring him will allow the Cubs to move Fukudome back to right field where he is more comfortable and effective.  Also, Roward is probably not the middle-of-the-order run producing bat that Piniella covets, but he should do a decent job, especially if he can regain some of the pop he had in his bat in previous years.  Don’t get me wrong,  acquiring Aaron Rowand is not the perfect solution for the Cubs.  I just think it is what they are going to do.

Outfield backups will include Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Sam Fuld, and Jeff Baker.

We already know that, barring a big surprise, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will be in the starting rotation.  I expect Tom Gorzelanny to snag the fifth starting spot.  I don’t think the Cubs will make any trades or sign any free agents that will impact the starting five.

In the bullpen, I expect to see Sean Marshall, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately, other than re-signing John Grabow, I don’t think the Cubs will make any moves to shore up the bullpen.  The reason I say “unfortunately” is because I feel strongly that the Cubs should replace Marmol as the closer.  He’s too undependable and the Cubs need dependabilty in the closer role.

The options to replace Marmol are very limited.  I spelled them out in a previous post.  My favorite option is to sign Ben Sheets to close (assuming Sheets would agree to close).  It would allow Sheets to work fewer innings as he recovers from the elbow surgery that kept him out of action in 2009.  Plus, if everything works out, he’ll be available for the starting rotation in 2011 when the Cubs are likely to lose Ted Lilly.  Of course, while I like the idea, I don’t expect it to happen.

You may have noticed that Jeff Samardjzia is nowhere to be found on the Cubs 2010 pitching staff.  That is because I expect the Cubs to keep him in triple-A all year where he can work on a third pitch.  The Cubs are doing everything they can to make Samardjzia into a starter.  But the truth is, he’s much better suited to be a relief pitcher.  I know neither he nor the Cubs want that, but I’m afraid that’s the case.  Perhaps another year in triple-A will help him become the starter he wants to be, but I expect the Cubs to come to the conclusion in the not too distant future that Samardjzia’s destiny  is in the bullpen. 

So, having said all of this, here is my projected roster for 2010:

Infield
1st — Derrek Lee
2nd — Orlando Hudson
SS — Ryan Theriot
3rd — Aramis Ramirez
C — Geovany Soto

Outfield
LF — Alfonso Soriano
CF — Aaron Rowand
RF — Kosuke Fukudome

Pitchers
SP — Carlos Zambrano
SP — Ted Lilly
SP — Ryan Dempster
SP — Randy Wells
SP — Tom Gorzelanny
RP — Sean Marshall
RP — John Grabow
RP — Angel Guzman
RP — Justin Berg
RP — Esmailin Caridad
CL — Carlos Marmol

Bench
Micah Hoffpauir
Sam Fuld
Jeff Baker
Andres Blanco/Mike Fontenot
Jake Fox
Koyie Hill

The 2010 Cubs, at least on paper, should be slightly better than the 2009 team.  If Ramirez annd Soto can stay healthy, and both Soriano and Soto can hit the way they have done in the past, the offense should be in good shape.  The starting rotation looks to be weaker than they were on opening day 2009 when the rotation included Rich Harden, but if Zambrano and Dempster can both stay healthy and rebound in 2010, the rotation should be just fine.

As I stated, I’m afraid that Carlos Marmol is going to be a weak link for this team.  If somehow Marmol can gain some control over his pitches, it will go a long way to helping the Cubs reach the post-season in 2010.

A Look At The Offseason (Part 1 – Infield)

A Look At The Offseason (Part 2 – Outfield)

Today, I’d like to focus on the Cubs’ starting and relief pitching.

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Four of the five positions in the Cubs starting rotation are pretty well set.  Barring an unforessen trade, the Cubs starters will include Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells.  Lefties Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Marshall, along with right-hander Jeff Samardjzia will compete for the fifth starter position.  So the Cubs are set with starting pitching, right?  Maybe.

I don’t expect the Cubs to add another starter, but there are a couple of scenarios that make some sense.  First, I’ve previously set out a scenario where a Milton Bradley (and others) trade to Toronto could return Roy Halladay.  If that happened, then you can count Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia among the faces in the bullpen.  It’s unlikely, but it would work.

If the Cubs are looking for a free agent starting pitcher (which I don’t think they are), there are two different targets I would suggest.  First is current Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf.  In 2009, Wolf was 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA.  He earned $5 million last year, plus $500,000 for pitching more than 200 innings.  He’ll be 34 years old in 2010.

The other free agent target I’d like the Cubs to consider is former Brewers starter, Ben Sheets.  Sheets missed the past year while recovering from surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.  He thought he’d be ready to pitch again by mid-season this past year, but his recovery took longer than anticipated.  From all reports, Sheets will be ready by Spring Training.

Sheets is a buy low, high potential target.  When he’s right, Sheets is very good.  Of course, his health and durability are a question, so he shouldn’t cost too much on a one year deal.

The Cubs bullpen will include two of Gorzelanny, Marshall, and Samardjzia (the two not in the starting rotation). It will also include Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol.  If the Cubs can re-sign John Grabow (which I expect), he’ll also be part of the bullpen.  Justin Berg, Dave Patton, Jeff Stevens and Mitch Atkins are also bullpen candidates.

The big question for me concerning the bullpen is whether or not the Cubs will be willing to start the year with Marmol as the closer.  All indications from the Cubs are that Marmol will be the closer.  If I were in charge, I’d be looking for someone else.

In 2009, Marmol lead all NL relievers in hit batters (12) and in bb/9 innings (7.90/9).  That’s not what you want from the guy who’s in charge of shutting down the opposing team in the 9th inning of a close game.  In 19 save opportunities, Marmol had 15 saves for a 21.0% blown save rate.  For comparisons sake, the Dodger’s Jonathon Broxton blew 14.3% of his save opportunities, Ryan Franklin of St. Louis blew 11.6% of his save opportunities, and the Rockies’ Huston Street blew 10.8% of his save opportunities.  Even Francisco Rodriguez of the Mets, who had a down year, only blew 16.7% of his save opportunities.  (In all fairness, Brad Lidge blew 21.6% of his saves and the Phillies are in the World Series.)

Marmol has been a great story for the Cubs up until now.  He joined the club as a catcher, was converted to a pitcher and at times has been dominant.  But he’s too wild and too unpredictable.  The Cubs need a closer they can count on.

Rob G. of The Cub Reporter has thrown out the idea of the Cubs signing free agent Kelvim Escobar.  Although he’s missed the past two years with injuries, Escobar is expected to be healthy going into next year.  Because of his past injury issues, he shouldn’t cost much and he could be brought in with the idea of either setting up Marmol or taking on the closer role. 

The Cubs could also decide to go after Billy Wagner.  After returning from injury last year, Wagner, who will be 39 years old next season,  looked like his old self.  He probably won’t come cheap, but he has the potential to be a dominant closer.  In 2009, between the Mets and Red Sox, Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings, but he posted a 1-1 record with a 1.72 ERA.  It’s a small sample size, but impressive nonetheless considering the circumstances.

The Red Sox have an $8 million option on Wagner for 2010, but they agreed not to exercise it in order to get him to waive his no-trade clause when he was traded from the Mets to Boston.  That must mean that Wagner thinks he can get more than $8 million per year and/or more years as a free agent. 

The latest news on Wagner is that he told a reporter that he is considering retiement and doesn’t plan to talk to teams when he hits free agency.  The next day, his agent said that Wagner’s statement was “premature.”  If he’s available, the Cubs should inquire, but my personal feeling is that his price tag is going to be too high.

There are a couple of other free agent candidates that are longshots, but possibilities.  If John Smoltz would be willing to return to the bullpen in 2010, then the Cubs should look at him to be their closer.  At the moment, it looks like Smoltz wants to start and St. Louis is willing to give him a chance, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.

The other option is of my own creation.  I mentioned earlier that free agent Ben Sheets is a pitcher the Cubs should consider.  Although he’s never closed before, it might be the perfect role for him coming off of a missed year due to injury.  It would allow him to pitch fewer innings and build his strength back up if his goal is to eventually be a starter again.  He has shown in the past that he has the mentality to be a closer.  Although I like the idea, I’m not so sure either Sheets or the Cubs would like it as much.

Other free agents to consider are Brandan Donnelly, Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito.  I’m not suggesting any of them would be a good fit for the Cubs, but they do have experience closing and all are available. 

There are a couple of intriguing trade candidates that may be available.  The Cincinnati Reds owe Francisco Cordero $12 million per year in 2010 and 2011.  The team also holds a $12 million option for 2012 with a $1 million buy-out.  In fact, he is the highest paid player on a team with many needs and very little payroll flexibility.

In 2009, Cordero was 2-6 with a 2.16 ERA.  He had 39 saves in 43 save opportunities (9.3% blown saves).  He’s expensive, but could probably be had for a couple of good prospects.  On the other hand, I doubt if either team would be overly excited about making a deal within the division.  It happens, but it’s not preferred.

There is also a chance that Colorado may make Huston Street available.  Personally, I think this is a longshot, but the fact is that Street made $4.5 million in 2009 and is due for a hefty increase via arbitration.  The Rockies have a couple of  other cheaper (albeit, not as good) options at closer, including Manny Corpas who is returning from injury.  It seems to me that the only way the Rockies would trade Street is if they are really in a money crunch.  I know their budget is tight, but I’m not sure it is tight enough to trade such a valuable player.

In a nutshell, I don’t think the Cubs should count on Marmol to be their closer, but I have to admit that the options to replace him are rather limited.  The bottom line for me is that the Cubs have a top-of-the-line starting rotation and they need to have a dependable arm closing out games for them.  I don’t know for sure who that steady arm will be, but I do know that Carlos Marmol is anything but steady.

In my next report, I’ll wrap up this series and put together a proposed 25 man roster for the 2010 Cubs.

The Cubs pitching staff is in pretty good shape for next year.  Starter Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells will likely take the top four spots (barring any trades), with Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija fighting it out for the fifth spot.

The bullpen may also be pretty well set.  Two of the three pitchers listed above that will be competing for the fifth starter role will likely end up in the bullpen.  Carlos Marmol will be closing, which leaves four or five additional positions in the bullpen.

Assuming Angel Guzman is healthy, he’ll claim one spot.  John Grabow is slated to be a free agent, but the Cubs are working on an extension for him and he has indicated that he would like to return.  If he does, he’ll claim another spot.  The finally two or three spots will go to any combination of David Patton, Esmailan Caridad, Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub.  There’s also a chance that the Cubs may try to resign Aaron Heilman, who Miles points out had a decent second half this year.

It’s fair to say that the vast majority of the offseason action is going to be focused on the position players.  A little tweaking here and there (like resigning John Grabow) may take place, but don’t expect many changes to the pitching staff.

Caveat: Of course, this assumes that none of the Cubs pitchers are involved in trades.  My gut tells me that a couple of the guys listed above will not be Cubs when the 2010 season rolls around.

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Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago (the “other” Bruce) has a new article up wherein he says:

The most likely scenario in the offseason will have the team allowing right-hander Rich Harden to test the free-agent waters. The Cubs will not offer arbitration to Harden, who was their top strikeout pitcher in 2009. Credit should be given to the Cubs’ medical and training staff, which did a fabulous job keeping the oft-injured pitcher on the mound the last year and a half. And to Harden’s credit, the extra work he did last offseason was also a key factor in his ability to make 26 starts this season.

No disrespect to Mr. Levine, but I think he’s wrong.  I expect the Cubs to offer arbitration to Harden and I expect Harden to turn it down, thus giving the Cubs a second round draft pick from the team that eventually signs him (Harden is a type B free agent). 

As a type B free agent, Harden knows that it is more likely that a team will sign him, potentially even to a multi-year deal.  They will not be as shy about signing him as they would have been had he been a type A free agent.  So it’s in the Cubs best interest to get something for him.  Worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and the Cubs end up with a good pitcher with the potential to be great if he can stay healthy.

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2009 is the 25th anniversary of the Cubs 1984 NL East winning season.  It was the first time since 1945 that a Cubs team had gone to the post season, so for Cubs fans, the 1984 team and season was very special.

Tony Arnold from WBEZ in Chicago is interviewing the various members of that 1984 team, including league-MVP and future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg remembers the season vividly, including the excitement at Wrigley as the season wore on, peopler gathering on the rooftops across from Wrigley for the first time, as well as specfic games and plays.  Take a listen to what Ryno remembers about the great 1984 season.

I have been consistent in my criticism of Bradley.  While I don’t believe that Bradley’s performance and behavior were the main reason for the Cubs downfall this year, I do believe that they were the most distracting for the team.  Bradley’s teammates didn’t have much sympathy following the announcement of his suspension.

According to the Daily Herald’s Miles, Ryan Dempster had this to say:

“To say that everybody’s out to get you and the reporters are looking for you and always looking to stick a microphone in your face, well, if you notice that they’re always for you, I think maybe you’re always looking for them,” Dempster said. “I’ve been here six years now and haven’t had a problem with anybody here. D-Lee’s been here, Z, a lot of guys for a long time. Yeah, you have some tough times, but the city’s great. The fans are great. You’ve got to realize sometimes the consequences of your own actions.”

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune quoted Dempster as saying:

“At the end of the day, he was provided a great opportunity to be part of a really great organization with a lot of really good guys,” pitcher Ryan Dempster said. “It just didn’t seem to make him happy — anything. Hopefully this is a little bit of a wake-up call for him, and he’ll realize how good of a gig you have.

Other players commented as well, including Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Reed Johnson.  Everyone disagreed with Bradley’s comments that a negative shadow hovered over the Cubs organization.  Manager Lou Piniella spoke about Bradley’s impact on the clubhouse:

“Last year, I don’t know how many times I heard from the media that we had the best clubhouse in the league,” Lou said before tonight’s game. “Things don’t change that rapidly in a year.”

While I have not been a fan of Bradley and his bad attitude, I don’t think Jim Hendry handled this situation very well.  When Bradley pulled himself out of Friday’s game in St, Louis with an injured knee, Hendry had the perfect excuse to put Bradley on the DL.  If he had, he wouldn’t be dealing with the PR mess surrounding Bradley’s suspension and he would have made Bradley more marketable in the off season.  Instead, now he’s going to have to try to move a clubhouse cancer rather than just a player who had a bad knee.

The Milton Bradley experiment has been a complete and utter disaster.  Thankfully, it is coming to an end.  Let’s hope that the Cubs don’t try anything crazy like this ever again.

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The Cubs beat the Cardinals 6-3 to remain 8.0 games behind the Rockies in the Wildcard race with just 15 games to go.  The Cubs travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in a three game set starting tonight.  Tom Gorzelanny (5-2) will take on Braden Looper (13-6).

Aramis Ramirez and Milton Bradley both homered for the Cubs.  Bradley also drew three walks in the game.  For all of his other faults, Bradley can draw a walk.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals won in Los Angeles, so the Cubs remain 6.0 games behind St. Louis.  The Cubs are 5.o games behind Colorado in the Wildcard race.  The Giants, Marlins and Braves are also ahead of the Cubs in the Wildcard.

The Cubs travel up the Pacific Coast to start a four game series with the Dodgers tonight.  Lefty Tom Gorzelanny (5-2) goes up against Jeff Weaver (5-4).

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As you probably know, Bud Selig is a big fan of this blog and he has jumped on the bandwagon I started the other day to institute a worldwide draft.  Dave Shenin writes in the Washington Post that Selig wants to make an “aggressive” push with the players union to implement a worldwide draft and a hard slotting system when the two sides get together to discuss the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. 

At least in theory, I like the idea of a salary cap tied to revenues as well.  I don’t know if this idea will get any traction, but I don’t think you can continue to have one team outspending another team by a factor of five or six and expect the game to remain healthy.  Of course, as I’ve said in the past, any salary cap must also have a salary floor so that teams don’t take undue advantage of the agreement.  I know a salary cap is a long shot, but I thought I’d throw it out there to give Bud something else to think about.

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Is Lou Piniella going to quit after this season?  Scott Miller at CBSSports.com thinks he might.  Although I enjoyed Miller’s article, be warned, it’s just an opinion piece.  Miller is suggesting that Piniella might walk away after this season.  Piniella doesn’t say that.

What I liked best about the article is the way that Miller detailed all of the things that have gone wrong for the Cubs this year.  I tend to forget all of the diasters and near-disasters that have plagued the Cubs this year.  Things really haven’t broken the Cubs way very often this season.

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Bill Hall has left the building.  Yesterday, I suggested that the Cubs look at adding the former Brewer to their roster to be the utility man for 2010.  Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), the Mariners beat the Cubs to the punch and traded for Hall.   The Mariners traded a low level pitching prospect for Hall and a lot of money.  Milwaukee will be paying Hall’s salary for the rest of 2009 and a good chuck of his $9.5 million contract next year.

Lossing out on Hall isn’t a big deal, but it does bother me that the Cubs seem to constantly rely on weak hitting backup infielders as bench players each year.  The one exception to that rule over the past several years was acquiring Mark DeRosa, but of course we all know how that ended.  Bill Hall wouldn’t have been the team savior, but he would have been an upgrade.

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Some in Collier County, Florida would like to make a push to bring the Cubs there for Spring Training.  However, the residents and officials in the county don’t seem to be very united. 

According to a report on NBC2.com in Naples, Murray Hendel, a member of the county’s Tourist Development Council, is leading the charge to bring the Cubs to southwest Florida.  But before he can convince the Cubs, he first has to convince the county’s tourism director, Jack Wert.  Wert says that bringing the Cubs or any team to Collier County just isn’t a priority.

“We just aren’t really that same kind of destination.  We’re much more of a resort and beach, and golf destination,” Wert said.

In case you don’t know, Naples likes to think of itself as a posh, upscale community.  There are several spa and golf resorts in the area, along with a lot of overpriced homes on the Gulf of Mexico.  Don’t get me wrong.  Naples is very nice.  In fact, I like it.  But how can a man that makes his living attracting tourist dollars to an area not get behind a movement to attract an MLB ball club?  That just doesn’t make sense to me.

Earlier this year, a group in Vero Beach announced that they would like to attract the Cubs to the empty Dodgertown.  Unlike Naples, Vero Beach and Indian River County would bend over backwards to get the Cubs to move there.  And the history of the Cubs coupled with the history of Dodgertown would be a great match.  I haven’t heard anything about this recently, but I like the idea.

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On his blog, former Dodger GM Fred Claire has a nice piece on Mark Prior.  It’s a bit of a puff piece.  No breaking news here.  But it still gives a good insight into Prior’s outlook on life and baseball.  I’ve always liked Prior.  I was never one of those who bashed him for being soft and not playing through his injuries.  It would be great to see him come back next year healthy and back on top of his game.

 Kosuke Fukudome went 2-for-5 with a homerun and two RBI.  Koyie Hill also had a good night, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI.  Derrek Lee added a homerun as well.

The Cubs go for the sweep tonight in Cincincinati.  The suddenly hot Rich Harden (7-6) goes for the good guys against Justin Lehr (0-0). 

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Trans over at The Cub Reporter has posted an interesting article trying to figure out Alfonso Soriano’s early season hitting woes as well as his quasi-recovery.  Bottom line?  Soriano needs a lighter bat.  Trans is always insightful and writes some really funny stuff (although the Soriano article is long on analysis and short on humor).

Now that Trans has figured out Alfonso Soriano, Maybe he can turn his considerable talents to Milton Bradley.

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The Padres made it official yesterday and finally released former Cub Mark Prior.  CBSSports.com is reporting that San Diego GM Kevin Towers had not seen enough progress in Prior’s rehab from shoulder surgery.  Prior had signed a minor league deal with the Padres at the beginning of the year.  He has not pitched in a big league game in three years.  At that time, he was still with the Cubs.

So what now?   Will another team take a chance on the once promising Prior?  Considering how much the Cubs have invested in him already, might Jim Hendry throw a little more in to see if he can get the investments to pay off, or would that just be throwing good money after bad?  When I think about what Prior did in 2003 for the Cubs, I want to see him come back and do well.  And if he does, I’d like it to be for the Cubs.

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Buster Olney has a terrific article up at ESPN.com right now (Insider subscription needed to read the whole article) looking at the recent trades made at the trade deadline from a different perspective.  I liked the article because it played right in to my belief that something needs to be done to establish parity in MLB.

In a previous post, I opined that what the Pittsburgh Pirates have done over the past nearly two decades is a travesty and that MLB needs to do something about it.  I based this belief on the fact that in 2009, the Pirates received $62 million in revenue sharing and national TV rights, but spent only about $25 million on their opening day roster.  The Yankees, the team with the highest payroll, spent nearly six times as much to field a team this year.

The issue isn’t really the Pirates.  The bigger issue is the disparity between what each team spends on players.  As Olney points out, the disparity is growing and recent evidence indicates that the amount a team spends on their players is a good predictor of where they finish in the standings.

The counter argument to this point is that 1) nine different teams have won the World Series in the past decade, and 2) small market teams with lower payrolls have not only done well in the standings (Minnesota, Oakland), but have actually won the World Series (Florida).  While this argument is correct so far as it goes, it fails to address the larger issue of long-term, consistent parity.  Just because a low payroll team can once-in-a-while catch lightning in a bottle, as Bob Costas points out in his book Fair Ball, the exception proves the rule.

According to Olney, if the post season were to begin today, seven of the top eight payroll teams would make the playoffs.  The only exception would be the faltering New York Mets.  Breaking it down further, in every divison in MLB except the NL East, the team with the highest payroll in the division is in first place.  In the NL East, the Phillies are leading in the standings and are second in the division in payroll.  In three of the six divisions, the team with the lowest payroll is in last place in the division. 

In my opinion, there are two changes that need to be made.  First, there needs to be a salary cap.  I can’t tell you exactly how the salary cap should be structured, but it should work to bring the payrolls of the biggest spending teams and the lowest spending teams more in line.  Teams like the Pirates, Royals and Marlins, regardless of their short-term on-field performance, should not be allowed to spend so little on payroll when they receive so much from the league just because they own a franchise.

To turn this argument a bit on its head, the highest payroll teams should not be allowed to “buy” themselves on-field success.  I’m upset with teams that severely skimp on payroll, but it’s equally wrong to allow teams to spend beyond the means of other franchises in order to “guarantee” their team’s success.  “Guarantee” may be too strong of a word, but spending more certainly increases the odds for on-field success.

Second, the MLB draft needs to be changed.  Right now, the worst performing teams get the highest draft picks, but because the worst performing teams are also often the lowest spending teams, they either are not able to sign their draft picks for affordability reasons, or they simply avoid picking the best players because they know they can’t sign them.   I love the free market, but unfortunately it doesn’t work very well in a closed system like MLB.

There are few things in life as exciting as the start of the baseball season (at least for baseball fans), but that excitement is dulled considerably for fans of teams that have no realistic chance of competing.  Changes need to be made to considerably level the playing field and implement parity on a consistent, rather than an occasional, basis.