What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Bringing It All Together

For the past two weeks, we’ve been looking at the Cubs roster to see how well Jim Hendry and the front office have done in spending nearly $140 million. To check out any of the previous posts, visit these links:

My theory going into this series of posts was that by virtue of having the third highest payroll in all of baseball, the Cubs should have one of the best players at almost every position. Of those players, two-to-four should be perennial all-stars.

I recognize that having one of the best players in baseball at almost every position is expensive. That’s why I think a high payroll team still needs to have one or two young, inexpensive players. However, those players should not just be roster filler. They may be young and inexpensive, but they should also be extremely good. An example of such a player would be Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox. David Wright of the Mets was also this type of player a few years ago. Geovany Soto may be such a player today, although the jury is still out.

To determine if the Cubs roster meets this criteria, in each post I ranked the Cubs players against the starters from each of the five other highest payroll teams. Then, I considered whether or not the Cubs player was among the top players at their position. Here’s how the Cubs players ranked against the players at the same position for the other five highest payroll teams:

First Base — Derrek Lee (5 out of 6)
Second Base — Mike Fontenot (6 out of 6)
Shortstop — Ryan Theriot (4 out of 6)
Third Base — Aramis Ramirez (3 out of 6)
Catcher — Geovany Soto (2 out of 6)
Left Field — Alfonso Soriano (3 out of 6)
Center Field — Kosuke Fukudome (4 out of 6)
Right Field — Milton Bradley (4 out of 6)
Closer — Kevin Gregg (5 out of 6)
Starting Pitchers — Carlos Zambrano (5 out of 30)

                                    Ted Lilly (12 out of 30)
                                    Rich Harden (13 out of 30)
                                    Ryan Dempster (17 out of 30)
                                    Randy Wells (18 out of 30)

Kind of confusing, isn’t it? I know. One of the main reasons is because my hypothesis was wrong. I thought that comparing the Cubs’ roster to the rosters of the five other highest payroll teams would work because I incorrectly assumed that the other five highest payroll teams would have some of the best players in baseball at each position. Having looked at every position from each of these teams, it’s obvious that these other five teams do not have one of the top players at each position. Each of these teams is built differently, but none of the teams has been able to build a starting line-up made up of some of the best players at each position, not even the Yankees.

Although my hypothesis was wrong, I’m not ready to give up on my belief that the third highest spending team in baseball should have some of the top players in the game on their roster. So, do the Cubs have some of the best players in the game on their roster?

Our research showed that two Cubs, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, were among the best at their position in all of baseball. Alfonso Soriano was close when he was signed, although he has fallen off recently. Soriano gets a bad rap from people who are quick to forget what a terrific hitter he was earlier in his career. If he can regain some of his previous hitting ability, Soriano can still be a top left fielder.

Geovany Soto is a tough call. Was the 2008 version of Soto the real deal, or was the 2009 version the one we’ll see in the future? Either way, I can’t fault the Cubs for handing him the starting job in 2008. He was one of those young, inexpensive players I talked about previously. It remains to be seen which Soto shows up in 2010.

The Cubs pitching staff also qualifies as among the best in baseball. The real weakness is that 1) the Cubs don’t have a true ace, and 2) the pitching staff as currently constituted will not be as good in 2010 as it was in 2009. The loss of Rich Harden and Ted Lilly’s inability to pitch for the first month or more of 2010 will take its toll on the Cubs.

What about the other positions? Starting Fukudome and Bradley in center and right field respectively was uninspired. Acquiring Bradley was a clear mistake that forced Fukudome to move from right field, where he was good, to center field, where he wasn’t so good. Neither player qualifies as one of the best at their position, making the Cubs outfield one of the weakest among contending teams.

Ryan Theriot straddles the line between mediocre and poor among shortstops. He combines the ability to be nothing special on defense with a below average OPS+. The Cubs need a top shortstop and Theriot doesn’t qualify.

Mike Fontenot is among the worst second basemen in baseball. He is not the type of player a club with a $140 million payroll should have in their starting lineup. Even so, as of this writing, the Cubs appear ready to give Fontenot another shot in 2010, unless Jeff Baker, a more versatile but equally as bad second baseman, can unseat him.

Finally, the Cubs had one of the weaker closers in baseball as their closer in 2009. There really was nothing in Kevin Gregg’s history that indicated that he could be a top-notch closer. However, he was relatively inexpensive, so Jim Hendry signed him and hoped for the best.

As I conducted my analysis, I kept coming back to this last statement. Jim Hendry has a history of signing players and hoping for the best. He signed Milton Bradley to be a middle-of-the-order run producer, even though Bradley had never shown the ability to fill that role before. That fact, and Bradley’s past behavior should have given Hendry pause. But instead, Hendry signed Bradley and hoped for the best.

He signed Gregg and hoped for the best, despite the fact that there really was no evidence in his past history that indicated that Gregg could be a reliable closer. It should have been clear that Gregg was not the type of closer a contending team would want on their roster, yet Hendry took the leap of faith.

Finally, there was nothing in Mike Fontenot’s background that should have indicated to anyone that he could be a successful everyday second baseman on a contending team, yet Jim Hendry handed him the job and kept his fingers crossed. The unnecessary risk back fired badly and he’s done nothing this off season to correct the problem.

The Cubs have not done a good job of spending their money. They have the third highest payroll in baseball, yet they have a roster that is more reminiscent of a middle-of-the-pack team. And it’s Jim Hendry’s job to make sure this doesn’t happen.

I’ve been a big supporter of Hendry’s over the years. However, after taking an in-depth look at the roster, I can’t help but come to the conclusion that he has not done a good job of building this team. A change in perspective is needed, and I don’t think that change can take place by keeping the same people in their current positions.

The Cubs needed a change in culture a few years ago. They needed to stop thinking of themselves as small spenders. They are a large market team with one of the highest revenue sources in the game, and they needed to start acting like one. That happened under the direction of John McDonough and Jim Hendry. The Cubs also rebuilt their farm system under the direction of Jim Hendry.

Now, another change is needed. The Cubs need to view themselves as players for most every big name free agent. They need to be viewed as a likely destination for top players when they are put on the trading block. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Hendry is the man for the job. Although he has shown a capacity to trade for players that are being dumped by their current team, he has not shown much ability or willingness to trade his own players or top prospects.

The Curtis Granderson situation earlier this off season was a good example. Despite his shortcomings, Granderson is considered one of the top center fielders in baseball. He would have been a perfect fit for the Cubs. Even so, Hendry was unwilling to get too deeply involved. Detroit wanted top prospects in exchange for Granderson. The Yankees were willing to deal their prospects in exchange for a proven commodity. Hendry refused to include the Cubs top prospects in any sort of deal. As he has done in the past, he has deemed some unproven, but highly regarded prospects as untouchable. This approach cost the Cubs a difference maker in center field and all they have to hang their hats on is the potential of some of their young players.

The botton line to all of this is that the Cubs need to get better. The need to spend their money to build a perennial contender. They need to change the way they build their roster. As much as I like and respect Jim Hendry, I’m not convinced that he’s the guy to make the shift in approach and get the job done.

What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Bringing It All Together

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