The Cubs are spending a lot of money on their payroll.  In 2009, they spent nearly $140 million, good for the third highest payroll in all of Major League Baseball.  Only the Yankees and Mets out-spent the Cubs last year. 

On the surface, it appears that both the Yankees and Mets got some of the top players in the game for the money they spent.  For the Yankees, names like Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and C.C. Sabathia immediately spring to mind.  For the Mets, guys like David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Francisco Rodriguez top the list.  But what about the Cubs?  Are any of their players among the best at their position in baseball?

My premise is simple.  If you have the third highest payroll in all of baseball, then you should have one of the top players at just about every position.  Is that happening with the Cubs?  I’m examining that question with this series of articles.  To read previous posts in this series, click on these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field

Today, I’d like to look at closers.  The closers we will be examining are:

• Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
• Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
• Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
• Fernando Rodney (Tigers)
• Brad Lidge (Phillies)
• Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)

Here’s how the closers rank based on 2009 salary:

1. Mariano Rivera ($15 million)
2. Brad Lidge ($11.5 million)
3. Francisco Rodriguez ($8.5 million)
4. Jonathan Papelbon ($6.5 million)
5. Kevin Gregg ($4.2 million)
6. Fernando Rodney ($2.7 million)

I like to start my analysis of 2009 by looking at what the players accomplished in 2008.  It gives me an idea of what type of momentum they had going into 2009 and helps me understand what the GM was thinking when they signed/traded for the player prior to 2009, or decided to keep the player in their current position in 2009.

With that in mind, here’s how the closers ranked based on 2008 WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 3.1)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 3.0)
3. Brad Lidge (WAR 2.2)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 1.8)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR 0.7)
6. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.4)

Next, let’s compare the pitchers based on 2008 ERA+:

1. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 317)
2. Brad Lidge (ERA + 225)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 198)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 198)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 127)
6. Fernando Rodney (ERA + 91)

Finally, let’s look at 2008 WHIP:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.665)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (0.952)
3. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.226)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.282)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.288)
6. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.587)

In 1988, Mariano Rivera was obviously the cream of the crop.  Jonathan Papelbon also had an outstanding year.  Based on the three stats we looked at above, Brad Lidge had a good year.  But when you factor in his 41 saves in 41 save opportunities, you can see that it was a remarkable year for Lidge.

The other three closers were at least a step below Rivera, Papelbon and Lidge.  Francisco Rodriguez had an impressive 62 saves in 69 chances, but the other two closers were nothiong special.  Even so, Jim Hendry must have seen something in Kevin Gregg following the 2008 season.  He allowed the Cubs former closer Kerry Wood to leave via free agency and he signed Gregg to a $4.2 million contract.

Moving on to 2009, here’s how the closers did based on WAR:

1. Mariano Rivera (WAR 2.0)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WAR 1.9)
3. Fernando Rodney (WAR 0.3)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (WAR 0.3)
5. Kevin Gregg (WAR -0.3)
6. Brad Lidge (WAR -0.7)

Brad Lidge had a train wreck of a year.  He was a mess.  But at least based on WAR, Kevin Gregg was almost as bad.  Gregg’s WAR indicates that the Cubs would have been better served bringing a replacent level closer up from AAA.

Here’s how the pitchers ranked based on ERA+:

1. Jonathan Papelbon (ERA+ 253)
2. Mariano Rivera (ERA+ 243)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (ERA+ 111)
4. Fernando Rodney (ERA+ 104)
5. Kevin Gregg (ERA+ 95)
6. Brad Lidge (ERA+ 59)

For the first time in our study, Papelbon knocks Rivera off the top step.  Gregg’s ERA+ indicates that he is a below average closer, but it’s nowhere near as bad as Lidge’s ERA+.  Lidge was simply awful in 2009.

Finally, let’s compare the closers based on their 2009 WHIP.  Here’s how they rank:

1. Mariano Rivera (WHIP 0.905)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (WHIP 1.147)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (WHIP 1.309)
4. Kevin Gregg (WHIP 1.311)
5. Fernando Rodney (WHIP 1.467)
6. Brad Lidge (WHIP 1.807)

Rivera had a WHIP below 1.00 again.  He ended the year with 44 saves and only two blown saves.  Fernando Rodney’s 2009 stats did not look particularly strong, but he finished the season with 37 saves in 38 opportunities.  Of the group, Gregg had the fewest saves with 23 in 30 chances.

Ranking the closers based on averall stats and performances, I came up with this list:

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
5. Kevin Gregg (Cubs)
6. Fernando Rodney (Tigers)

After Lidge’s horrible 2009, it was hard to rank him 4th.  However, based on his career numbers, he definitely deserved to be ahead of Gregg and Rodney. 

I think there is an argument to be made that Rodney should be ranked ahead of Gregg.  Again, I deferred to their career numbers.  However, I think it is fair to say that moving forward, Rodney is the more valuable closer.  His stock is rising while Gregg’s is falling.

It’s plain to see that Kevin Gregg is not one of the elite closers in baseball.  He ranks at or near the bottom of the list of the six closers we examined.  When you factor in other closers not part of our survey such as Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, and others, it’s clear that Gregg is not a top closer.

Bottom Line: Allowing Kerry Wood to leave via free agency was probably the proper move for the Cubs following the 2008 season.  However, signing Kevin Gregg was not the proper move.  He was not an elite closer prior to 2009 and the Cubs had no reason to believe he would be an elite closer in 2009.  Again, it was more wishful thinking on Jim Hendry’s part. 

Gregg lost his closing role to Carlos Marmol during the 2009 season and the Cubs appear ready to move forward with Marmol as the closer in 2010.  Is Marmol an elite closer?  I don’t think so.  He led all NL relievers in BB/9 in 2009 and he was third among all NL pitchers for hit batsmen.  When Marmol is right, he is difficult to hit.  But when he is wrong, which happens far too often, he simpy can’t throw strikes.  That’s not a quality you want in a closer.

To give you an idea, in 2009, Marmol had a WAR of 0.6, an ERA+ of 132, and his WHIP was 1.459.  He allowed 7.9 walks per 9 innings and he hit 12 batters in just 74.0 innings pitched.  These stats are a recipe for disaster as a closer.

The Cubs are once again entering a season in 2010 hoping and praying that their sub-par closer can somehow catch lightning in a bottle.  It could happen, but the odds are against it.  At some point, the Cubs need to stop applying band-aids to their needs and actually add a top player.  The closer position would be a good place to start.