I’m in the process of analyzing the Cubs roster in comparison to the other five biggest spending teams in baseball.  To take a look at my methodology, visit my original post.

One thing I learned while doing research for this series of posts is that first basemen are expensive.  Of the six top spending teams, the salary for starting first basemen ranged from $6 million to $20 million per year. 

The starting first basemen for the six top spending teams were:

• Mark Teixeira (Yankees)
• Carlos Delgado (Mets)
• Derrek Lee (Cubs)
• Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
• Ryan Howard (Phillies)
• Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)

  From a money standpoint, the first basemen rank like this (most expensive to least expensive based on 2009 salary):

1. Mark Teixeira ($20 million)
2. Miguel Cabrera ($15 million)
3. Ryan Howard ($15 million)
4. Derrek Lee ($13 million)
5. Carlos Delgado ($12 million)
6. Kevin Youkilis ($6 million)

The first basemen are all good.  There’s not a weak sister in the bunch.  You could argue that one player is better than another, but the truth is that every one of the first basemen are worthy of their status as a starter on a large payroll team.

Having said that, let’s try to rank this list of very good first basemen.  Let’s start by ranking the players by their 2008 WAR:

1. Mark Teixeira (WAR 6.8)
2. Kevin Youkilis (WAR 5.6)
3. Ryan Howard (WAR 4.8)
4. Derrick Lee (WAR 3.1)
5. Miguel Cabrera (WAR 2.9)
6. Carlos Delgado (WAR 2.9)

The reason I wanted to look at 2008 stats was because it gives an indication of what the player was doing the year before the year I am analyzing.  It helps us to understand if the player’s 2009 stats were a fluke.  Was their 2009 the same as their 2008 or was it better/worse?  If the player wasn’t on their 2009 team in 2008, such as Mark Teixeira, then it gives you an idea of whether signing them/trading for them for the 2009 season was a good idea.

The reason I like WAR is that it takes into account how many games a player plays during a season.  For instance, a team with a great player who spends the majority of the season on the DL isn’t being helped much by that player.  WAR understands this.  And remember, we are looking at the value the Cubs are getting for their $140 million relative to other big spending teams.  A player who spends the majority of the season on the DL isn’t providing much value.

It can be argued that the GM can’t be held responsible for injuries.  In a limited context, this is true.  However, in a larger context, if the GM has a habit of signing/trading for players with a history of injuries — Boston’s Mike Lowell, for example — Then the GM should be held to account for it.

Looking at the ranking of first basemen by 2008 WAR, we can see that Mark Texeira was a monster in 2008.  That year he started with the Braves, but was eventually traded to the Angels.  In 2009, the Yankees made him a very wealthy man. 

But it looks like the value pick for 2008 is Kevin Youkilis.  Among the first basemen we’re looking at, Youkilis made the least amount of money, but had the second highest WAR rating.  In fact, Youkilis only made half ($3 million) of what he made in 2009.  He really was a bargain.

Based on 2008 OPS+, here’s how the first basemen ranked:

1. Mark Texeira (OPS+ 152)
2. Kevin Youkilis (OPS+ 143)
3. Miguel Cabrera (OPS+ 129)
4. Carlos Delgado (OPS+ 127)
5. Ryan Howard (OPS+ 124)
6. Derrek Lee (OPS+ 108)

Again, in 2008, Mark Texeira and Kevin Youkilis were tops among the six first basemen.  Cubs first basemen Derrek Lee trailed the pack with an OPS+ of 108.   He was still a bit better than the average player, but not by a lot.  2009 would turn out much better for Lee.

Next, let’s look at 2009 WAR:

1. Kevin Youkilis (WAR 5.6)
2. Miguel Cabrera (WAR 5.4)
3. Derrick Lee (WAR 5.3)
4. Mark Teixeira (WAR 5.1)
5. Ryan Howard (WAR 4.8)
6. Carlos Delgado (WAR 0.8)

Kevin Youkilis comes through again.  The lowest paid first basemen of the six in 2009 and he puts up the best WAR ranking.  Impressive.  Derrick Lee did a nice job in 2009.  He was third in the rankings with an impressive 5.3 WAR score.  Carlos Delgado did not have a good 2009.  He only managed 94 ABs before going on the DL for the remainder of the year. 

How do the six first basemen rank for 2009 OPS+?

1. Mark Teixeira (OPS+ 149)
2. Derrick Lee (OPS+ 145)
3. Kevin Youkilis (OPS+ 145)
4. Miguel Cabrera (OPS+ 142)
5. Carlos Delgado (OPS+ 141)
6. Ryan Howard (OPS+ 140)

Mark Texeira again tops the list with Kevin Youkilis and Derrek Lee tied for second.  The thing that strikes me is how all six first basemen are so closely grouped.  Carlos Delgado only managed 96 ABs for the year, but he made the most of them.

At this point, it would be easy to bring a first baseman like Albert Pujols  into the conversation to see where he would rank.  It’s tempting, but I really want to confine my analysis to the six biggest spending teams.  My purpose isn’t to determine the best first baseman or the best value among first basemen.  Instead, I want to see how well the Cubs are spending their $140 million.

With that in mind, let’s rank the six first basemen to see if the Cubs are spending money wisely at first basemen:

1. Mark Texeira (Yankees)
2. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)
3. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
4. Ryan Howard (Phillies)
5. Derrick Lee (Cubs)
6. Carlos Delgado (Mets)

This ranking is much more subjective than the above rankings.  In addition to the stats I’ve detailed above, I’m taking things into consideration like career stats, fielding, and how well I think the player will play in the future.  If I was basing it simply on 2009 stats, Derrek Lee would have scored higher; probably either second or third. 

Lee has always been solid, but not spectacular.  Certainly he’s never done anything to make anyone think he’s better than Teixeira.  Of the six, Lee is a tremendous fielder, maybe the best of the bunch. However, Teixeira and Youkilis are also very good fielders.  I’m not sure that either is better than Lee, but Texeira’s offense more than makes up for it, and Youkilis’ versatility (he’s also a terrific third baseman) lands him ahead of Lee.

There’s a part of me that wants to rank Lee ahead of Ryan Howard.  I don’t think I value Howard as highly as some other people do.  Even so, I can’t find the justification to put Lee above Howard.  Of the six first basemen being ranked, Howard has the highest career OPS+.  That’s saying something.  But it’s not just the highest.  It’s 18 points higher than Lee (OPS+ 142 vs. 124).

Bottom Line:  Lee is the fourth highest paid first basemen out of the six being analyzed and I ranked him the fifth best. That’s not horrible and I honestly can’t say that the Cubs are not getting value for their money with Lee.  He is a two-time all-star who could have easily made the 2009 all-star team if his season would have gotten off to a faster start.  If they elected all-stars after the season, Lee would have had an excellent shot of making the team.  So, at least when it comes to first base, the Cubs are holding there own. 

As a side note, Derrek Lee’s contract is up after the 2010 season.  He’ll be 35 years old in 2010 and he continues to struggle with chronic pain in his neck from a pinched nerve.  While Lee can still provide value to a team, my hope is that the Cubs do not resign him after the 2010 season.  If they can trade him, especially to the West Coast near his family and his home, and get value in return, all the better.  Of course, Lee has a no trade clause, so that may not be possible.  In any case, the Cubs need to find a new, younger first baseman going into 2011.

One Final Thought — I could help myself.  I had to look at the other first basemen to at least see who would be considered among the best in baseball.  There are several.  You have to start with Albert Pujols, who is not only the best hitting first baseman in MLB, but probably the best hitter period.  Then you have guys like Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Cincinnati’s Joey Votto. 

There’s no doubt that Derreck Lee is among the top first basemen in baseball.  Is he top five?  Top 10?  I’ll leave that decision to you.  My concern with this series of posts was to see if the Cubs have used their $140 million wisely.  Looking at first base, I think it’s fair to say that they used their money wisely.  Going forward, a change probably needs to be made.  But for 2009, I can’t complain.