For the the past few days, we’ve been looking at the Cubs 2009 roster and seeing how it compares to other teams with high payrolls.  When I started the project, my thinking was that 1) with such a high payroll (the third highest in baseball), the Cubs should have one of the top players in the game at almost every position, and 2) the Cubs roster pales in comparision to other big spending teams.

Check out these links to read the earlier posts from this series:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million? Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher

Today, I want to look at left field.  It’s a little tricky examining the outfield positions because players can and do move from one outfield slot to another fairly easily and often.  To make things a little easier, I’ll be considering each outfield position as an individual position and I’ll only be comparing each Cubs outfielder to outfielders from the highest payroll teams who play the exact same outfield position.

Here are the left fielders we’ll be examining:

• Johnny Damon (Yankees)
• Daniel Murphy (Mets)
• Alfonso Soriano (Cubs)
• Josh Anderson (Tigers)
• Raul Ibanez (Phillies)
• Jason Bay (Red Sox)

Let’s take a look at how the left fielders compare based on salary:

• Alfonso Soriano ($16 Million)
• Johnny Damon ($13 Million)
• Jason Bay ($7.5 million)
• Raul Ibanez ($6.5 million)
• Daniel Murphy ($401,000)
• Josh Anderson ($400,000)

This is the first time we have seen a Cubs player at the top of salary rankings for a position.  I think it is easy for Cubs fans to forget what an elite player Alfonso Soriano was prior to the 2009 season.  He had been a 40/40 guy when he was in Washington and he helped lead the Cubs to the playoffs in 2007 and 2008.  Obviously, things didn’t go according to plan in 2009 and the bloom is a bit off the rose with Soriano.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.

In looking at the 2009 rosters and the performance of each player during that season, I like to begin by looking at the performance numbers for the 2008 season.  It gives me a feel for how the players was performing heading into the 2009 season and gives me an idea of why and how they ended up in the starting lineup for a high payroll team in 2009.

With that in mind, let’s look at how the players rank based on 2008 WAR:

1. Johnny Damon (WAR 3.6)
2. Alfonso Soriano (WAR 3.1)
3. Jason Bay (WAR 2.9)
4. Raul Ibanez (WAR 2.2)
5. Daniel Murphy (WAR 0.9)
6. Josh Anderson (WAR 0.7)

Although Soriano had a terrific year in 2008 — .280/.344/.532 with 29 homeruns and 79 RBI — he missed significant time on the DL which hurt his WAR score.  As an aside, I like this aspect of WAR.  Even the best player in the world can’t help his team if he is not on the field playing. 

To get a feel for how these players hit in 2008 despite spending time on the DL, let’s look at their OPS+:

1. Jason Bay (OPS+ 134)
2. Daniel Murphy (OPS + 129)
3. Raul Ibanez (OPS+ 123)
4. Alfonso Soriano (OPS+ 119)
5. Johnny Damon (OPS+ 118)
6. Josh Anderson (OPS+ 101)

Wow, that’s surprising.  There’s a few things that jump out at me about this list.  First, although Jason Bay split his 2008 between Pittsburgh and Boston, the change of teams obviously didn’t hurt his production.  Daniel Murphy finished second in OPS+, but it should be pointed out that he only had 131 ABs.  Of course, he made the most of those at-bats and it earned him a starting job in left field for the Mets in 2009.

Although Soriano finished fourth out of our six left fielders, he still had a decent OPS+.  Probably not the kind of OPS+ you’d pay $16 million for, but still not horrible.

Next, let’s move to 2009 WAR:

1. Raul Ibanez (WAR 4.2)
2. Jason Bay (WAR 3.5)
3. Johnny Damon (WAR 3.0)
4. Daniel Murphy (WAR 0.6)
5. Josh Anderson (WAR -0.3)
6. Alfonso Soriano (WAR -0.7)

Soriano was really bad in 2009.  To give you an idea of how out-of-character Soriano’s 2009 season was, it was the first time in his career that he put up a WAR ranking below 1.5.  That should give Cubs fans reason to hope that he bounces back in 2010.  However, until that happens, Soriano’s 2009 performance will remain fresh in our minds.

Moving on to OPS+ for 2009.  How did Soriano rank?

1. Jason Bay (OPS+ 134)
2. Raul Ibanez (OPS+ 131)
3. Johnny Damon (OPS+ 126)
4. Daniel Murphy (OPS+ 95)
5. Alfonso Soriano (OPS+ 84)
6. Josh Anderson (OPS+ 52)

This should be no surprise.  The top three guys had very good years.  The bottom three guys did not.  We saw it with out eyes and the stats bear it out.

As for Soriano, 2009 was the worst OPS+ he has put up in his career since he became a full-time starter in 2001.  Again, it gives reason to believe that 2010 will be a much better year for Soriano.

So how do the left fielders rank?  Let’s take a look.

1. Jason Bay (Red Sox)
2. Raul Ibanez (Phillies)
3. Alfonso Soriano (Cubs)
4. Johnny Damon (Yankees)
5. Daniel Murphy (Mets)
6. Josh Anderson (Tigers)

In many ways, this is an odd group to rank.  Murphy has lost his starting job with the Mets (although he may play first base), Anderson lost his starting job last year during the season and was eventually sold to the Royals.  He recently signed a minor league deal with the Reds. 

Jason Bay moved from the Red Sox to the Mets and Johnny Damon is still looking for work.  I think it’s safe to say that, with the exception of Jason Bay, none of the other players in our survey are among the very top of left fielders in the game.  In addition to Bay, players such as Carl Crawford, Ryan Braun, and Matt Holliday spring to mind as the games top left fielders.  When he’s right, Soriano is among this group, but he certainly wasn’t right in 2009.  It remains to be seen if he can get back to being one of the game’s top hitters in 2010.

Bottom Line: Judging Alfonso Soriano at after the horrendous season he had in 2009 is a tough thing to do.  His reputation in the minds of a lot of baseball fans has been tarnished and he’s going to have to prove himself going forward to regain the reputation he once had.

Having said that, my quest is to judge the Cubs left fielder based on his standing going in to the 2009 season to determine if he is one of the top left fielders in baseball.  Despite his dismal showing in 2009, Soriano was one of the top left fielders in the game going into the season.  His combination of power and speed is rare in the game and it is what convinced the Cubs to sign him to a long-term, high dollar contract. 

Going forward, I’m very concerned about is going to happen to Soriano’s ability.  Already, we’ve seen injuries to his legs that has significantly reduced his running ability.   But looking back to when Soriano was signed and remembering his performances during the playoff years of 2007-08, it’s understandable why the Cubs wanted Soriano in their outfield.  For that reason, I can fault them for starting him in left field.  Entering the 2009 season, he was one of the better left fielders in baseball.