With the third highest payroll in baseball in 2009, the Cubs put together a roster that is arguably the worst of the top six spending teams in the Major Leagues.  My complaint isn’t with the money they spent.   A large market club like the Cubs with the high annual revenues they have should be one of the top spending teams.  And honestly, $140 million should be enough to build a perennial winner.  So my complaint isn’t about the money they spend.  It’s about how they spend it.

My opinion is that the Cubs, by virtue of having the third highest payroll in baseball, should have have some of the top players in the game on their team.  Year-in and year-out the Cubs should have five or six of the top position players in their starting line-up, three or four all-stars, and a couple of younger, less expensive players who are capable and on the verge of stardom.

In this series of posts, I’m examining the Cubs roster to see if they are meeting this expectation.  I’m analyzing the roster position by position.  To read previous posts, check out these links:

• What Can You Get For $140 Million? (Introduction and Methodology)
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: First Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Second Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Shortstop
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Third Base
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Catcher
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Left Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Center Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Right Field
• What Can You Get For $140 Million?: Closer

Today, I’d like to look at starting pitchers.  Today’s analysis is going to be a little different than previous posts.  Because we will be looking at 30 starting pitchers rather than just six position players or closers, there won’t be room to rank each player based on stats from the previous two years.  Instead, I’ll compile the stats behind the scenes, and list the overall rankings here.

Also, although I’ll be considering 2008 stats (as well as career stats), I won’t be ranking the pitchers for 2008 as I have done in  previous posts.  The overall ranking will be for 2009, although again, previous and career stats will be considered.

 When it comes to ranking starting pitchers, there’s a lot of subjectivity that comes into play.  For instance, one pitcher may have better stats than another, but they may not have been as consistent as another pitcher or haven’t been performing at as high of a level.  A lot of things go into ranking the pitchers and I’ll be the first to admit that my own biases come into play.

Also, keep in mind that the ranking is based on the start of the 2009 season.  So a pitcher that had a teriffic 2009 may not rank as highly as you might think.  Stats from 2009 are considered, but they are discounted a bit since the GM could not have known going into the season how well (or poorly) the pitcher would do.

With all of this in mind, here is how I ranked the starting pitchers for the six highest payroll teams:

1. C.C. Sabathia (Yankees)
2. Johan Santana (Mets)
3. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
4. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
5. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
6. Cole Hamel (Phillies)
7. A.J. Burnett (Yankees)
8. J.A. Happ (Phillies)
9. Andy Pettite (Yankees)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox)
11. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
12. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
13. Rich Harden (Cubs)
14. Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
15. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
16. Tim Wakefield (Red Sox)
17. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
18. Randy Wells (Cubs)
19. Rick Porcello (Tigers)
20. Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees)
21. Jamie Moyer (Phillies)
22. John Maine (Mets)
23. Brad Penny (Red Sox)
24. Brett Myers (Phillies)
25. Edwin Jackson (Tigers)
26. Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers)
27. Armando Galarrraga (Tigers)
28. Mike Pelfrey (Mets)
29. Tim Redding (Mets)
30. Oliver Perez (Mets)

Space prohibits me from defending or explaining each pitcher and their place in the rankings, but let me explain a few.  At the top of the list, there is a good argument to move Jon Lester up to the top and move Johan Santana down a few spots.  I was satisfied that Sabathia belonged at the top of the list, but I struggled a little with Santana.  I think some people would have moved Beckett ahead of Lester as well.  Wherever you put these pitchers, I think it is clear that they will end up at or near the top.

I’m afraid I might be letting my Cubs fan side come out a little too much by ranking Zambrano ahead of Hamel, especially following Hamel’s 2008 performance.  I think there is a strong argument to move Hamel and J.A. Happ above Zambrano, but in the end I decided to stick with Big Z.

Some will say that Harden is ranked too high while others will say he is too low.  I think Harden is a heck of a pitcher.  When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best.  Unfortunately, he has had a difficult time staying healthy and he has a habit of not pitching very deep into a game.  If Harden would start pitching deeper in games, I’d gladly move him up in the rankings.  However, at least based on 2009, it appears that he needs to stay at around five innings per game to stay healthy.

Is Tim Wakefield ranked too high?  I’ve always really liked Wakefield.  I think he’s one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  He’s consistent year-in and year-out.  Because of that, I think he gets taken for granted.

Did I rank Randy Wells too low?  Based on his 2009 performance, I did.  However, as a rookie heading into 2009, not a lot was known about him.  Was 2009 the real deal?  We’ll have to wait and see.  For now, I don’t think he deserves to be ranked any higher.

The bottom third of the list can probably be flip-flopped a lot of ways.  One thing is certain though.  The back end of the starting rotations for the Tigers and Mets is really weak.

Even when you consider all of the other starting pitchers in baseball, the Cubs look pretty good.  Zambrano is not a true ace, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the top 20-25 pitchers in baseball.  Should the Cubs have a true ace?  Yeah, probably.  But I’ll save that argument for another day. 

Bottom Line: When it comes to starting pitching, the Cubs did pretty well.  They have one of the top five starters (of the six teams surveyed) and their other starters all rank in the middle ten.  Pitching was a strong suit for the Cubs in 2009.  In fact, I think a strong argument can be made that the Cubs starting pitching staff helped them to a winning season despite the offensive woes the team experienced throughout the year.

Things are not looking quite so rosy for 2010.  Rich Harden is no longer with the club and Ted Lilly will miss a month or more at the beginning of the season while he recovers from shoulder surgery.  In addition to counting on Randy Wells to repeat his 2009 performance, the Cubs are expecting some or all of Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardjzia, and Mike Parisi to step up and fill a role in the starting rotation.

For our purposes, it’s safe to say that the Cubs had one of the stronger rotations in baseball in 2009.  At least as far as the starting rotation goes, the Cubs spent their money wisely.