Earlier this week, the Phillies signed 1B Ryan Howard to a 5-year/$125 million contract extention.  Howard’s current contract is not up until after the 2011 season, so his extention will take him through the 2016 season.  In addition, the contract includes a team option for 2017 for $23 million or a $10 million buyout.

I think this contract extention is crazy.  At the moment, Howard is 30 years old and is already showing signs of aging.  In the field, he’s average at best, although that may be giving him too much credit.  At the plate, he strikes out more than he walks by a ratio of 2:1 and the trend is creeping even higher.  He is a notoriously bad hitter against left-handed pitchers and he has trouble handling breaking balls and off-speed pitches.  On the base paths, he has never been speedy, but it appears that he has lost a step in recent years.  Does this sound like the type of player you’d want to pay more than $20 million per year until he’s 36 or 37?

It appears to me that the Phillies shot themselves in the foot by signing Howard to such a ridiculous extention.  If that was all they did, I wouldn’t really care.  But what the extention also did was set the bar ridiculously high for every mediocre first baseman out there.  And my main concern is what the Cubs will have to pay to get a top notch first baseman after Derrek Lee’s contract expires at the end of this season.

The way the Cubs roster is structured currently (and into the foreseeable future), they need to have a first baseman who can hit with power.  Over the past several years, Lee has done a good job of providing that power.  He has averaged 31 homeruns per year since joining the Cubs, not including 2006 when he was injured most of the year and only played in 50 games.

However, Lee will be 35 years old in September and his stats are likely to start falling off.  I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on what he has done thus far in 2010, but the fact is that he’s hitting below .200 at the moment and is really struggling at the plate.  I’m confident that he’ll bounce back and have a decent season this year, but moving forward, I think the Cubs want to go in a different, younger direction. 

There are a few guys I could see the Cubs having interest in.  Adrian Gonzalez is a top-of-the-mind candidate.  He’s going to get very expensive once his contract is up, and all indications are that San Diego will not retain him.  Instead, they will likely want to trade him in exchange for some top prospects.  The Cubs farm system is in good shape, so a trade is possible.

Gonzalez is signed through the end of this season and the Padres hold a $5.5 million contract for next year that will certainly be exercised.  But what will his contract demand past 2011 be?  Howard will be earning $20-$25 million per year beginning in 2012.  The Yankees’ Mark Teixeira will be earning $22.5 million.  Miguel Cabrera will make $21 million a year beginning in 2012.  Gonzalez will likely want to make as much as these guys.

Who are the free agents on the horizon?  At the top of the list is Albert Pujols.  I don’t see any way the Cardinals don’t sign Pujols to an extention.  In the very least they will exercise their $16 million option for him in 2012.  The price tag for an extention will likely be in the $30 million per year range.  Of course, if Pujols is available, you have to go after him.

Lance Berkman will also be a free agent at the end of this season.  The Astros hold a $15 million option on him for 2012 and my guess is that they’ll exercise it.  But even if they don’t, would the Cubs be any better off signing Berkman than they would be working out an extention with Lee?  They are both the same age (Lee is five months older) and have similar skill sets.  I think Lee is the superior fielder.  So what would be the point of letting Lee walk and then signing Berkman?  I don’t think it makes sense.

What about Adam Dunn.  I think Dunn, who is 31,  gets a bad rap because he is a poor fielder and strikes out a lot.  But the fact is that the guy can hit.  He gets on base (career .383 OBP) and he hits with power.  He had at least 40 home runs every year from 2004-2008.  He fell just short of that mark in 2009 by hitting 38 home runs.

Dunn is currently making $12 million in Washington and will likely be looking for a long term contract in the $15 – $20 million range.  Considering Howard’s extention, it will probably be at the high end of that range.  Does Dunn make sense for the Cubs?  Personally, I don’t think so.  The Cubs need a first baseman who is at least an average fielder.  Dunn falls short of that mark. 

There is no one else in the upcoming free agent class that would fit the bill for the Cubs.  Could a trade be worked out for a first baseman?  I already mentioned Gonzalez.  Who else might be available?  I’ve had my eye on the Twins Justin Morneau.  He’s 29 years old and he’s signed to a reasonable contract.  He is signed through 2013 at just $14 million per year (beginning in 2011).  But why would the Twins want to part with the 2006 AL MVP?

The truth is that they might not.  However, a case can be made that they may be looking to move a contract or two.  First, the Twins recently signed catcher Joe Mauer to an 8-year/$184 million contract that starts in 2011.  That’s a lot of money for a team that traditionally has a smaller payroll.  Might they try to save some money by moving some of their bigger contracts in exchange for prospects?

Also, the Twins currently have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and one way they could relieve the logjam is by trading Morneau and moving Michael Cuddyer to first base.  Why wouldn’t they just trade Cuddyer?  Because he makes less than Morneau and his contract is up after the 2011 season.  Trading Morneau and retaining Cuddyer would give the Twins more flexibility and more financial breathing room.

The Cubs are going to have a big decision to make at the end of this season (or maybe earlier).  Should they re-sign Lee, sign a free agent, or make a trade.  With Ryan Howard’s extention, the price of poker just went up.