A few days ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Cubs were not going to offer Rich Harden arbitration or try to sign him for next season. But with the news about Ted Lilly undergoing shoulder surgery and potentially not being ready for the start of the 2010 season, the odds of Harden’s return to the Cubs have just increased.
When the 2009 season ended and Cubs fans looked toward 2010, one thing we could be fairly certain about was the team’s starting rotation. Even though the Cubs don’t have a true ace (Carlos Zambrano is not a true ace), we were comfortable with the four guys we were certain would be in the starting rotation. Of course, those guy are Zambrano, Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells. The fifh spot is a question mark, but the Cubs have three guys who all can do a credible job in that role.
But with Lilly’s surgery, the starting rotation is suddenly a question mark. If Lilly can return to the rotation in April and pitch effectively, no problem. But at this point, it doesn’t seem like a good idea to count on that possibility. The Cubs really need to have a “Plan B” in place in case Lilly has any setbacks.
Re-signing Rich Harden is one option. Harden earned $7 million last year and would likely see a raise to the $9 or $10 million range in arbitration. Although Harden filed for free agency yesterday (along with Reed Johnson), the Cubs still have until December 1 to decide whether or not they want to offer him arbitration.
There’s never been any question about Harden’s stuff. When he’s healthy, he’s lights out. But he has had his struggles staying healthy. And even though he was pretty healthy in 2009, he still only averaged just under 5.2 innings per game. That can be really hard on the bullpen.
For what it’s worth, the Bill James Handbook (as provided by AnotherCubsBlog.com) projects Harden to post a 3.33 ERA next year. Unfortunately, he’s also projected to start just 24 games (two fewer than in 2009) and pitch just 135 innings (six fewer than in 2009). That’s a slightly higher average innings/game, than he achieved in 2009, but not by much.
Of course, keep in mind that these are just projections. Bill James does an incredible job, but even he’s not foolproof.
There are other options. Rather than spending $10 million +/- on Harden, the Cubs could spend less on a free agent like Randy Wolf. Wolf earned a guaranteed $5 million last year along with up to $3 million in incentives. Wolf pitched 214.0 innings last year (the most in his career), posting an 11-7 record and a 3.23 ERA. While I think the Cubs could save some money signing Wolf (I’m guessing he’ll sign for $6.5 – $7.5 million), Wolf may insist on a multi-year deal. I would counsel against that.
Of course, there’s always Ben Sheets. If you’ve read this blog any length of time, you know that I think someone is going to get a great deal on Ben Sheets this year. It might as well be the Cubs. Sheets is coming off a year away from baseball recovering from surgery, so he should come fairly cheaply. He also has rested for an entire year, so he should be good to go in Spring Training. Sheets is a buy low/high potential guy who could pay dividends for the Cubs.
All indications are that Lilly will be back in April and should be fully recovered. Even if he can’t come back until May 1, the Cubs should be fine. They don’t need a fifth pitcher until mid-April, and they have the arms to fill in for a short time. But if Lilly is not ready to come back full strength by May, the Cubs are going to be in a lot of trouble, especially if any of their other pitchers suffer an injury (which is not unheard of).
Jim Hendry needs to add “find a good deal on a starting pitcher” to his off season to-do list. The Cubs can not afford to take a chance now that Ted Lilly is a question mark. Plus, as they say, you can never have too much pitching.
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Dave Kaplan from Chicago Tribune Live! and WGN Radio is not a fan of Carlos Zambrano. He has been critical of Big Z on several occasions and he’s fired another salvo at the big right hander:
“Look, I am not a Zambrano fan because he is lazy and he doesn’t get the most out of his abilities.”
Harsh, sure, but is it undeserved?
In my opinion, Kaplan seems to be harder on Zambrano that most other players. But I think that might be because he sees in Zambrano a guy with tremendous talent who doesn’t work hard enough or care enough to reach his full potential. It also doesn’t help that the Cubs signed Zambrano to a 5-year/$91.5 million contract in 2008 and he has underperformed ever since.
I think it is time for the Cubs and Cubs fans to stop expecting Zambrano to be the ace of the staff. Realistically, unless he improves unexpectedly, Z is probably a number two or three starter. He’s still a good pitcher who does a credible job, but it’s probably time to stop counting on him becoming one of the elite pitchers in the game.
In his latest blog post, Kaplan takes a look as Zambrano and compares him to free agent pitcher John Lackey. Take a look at his post for the specifics, but the take away is that Lackey is a much better pitcher than Zambrano, despite what their contracts might say.
